Todd McShay Mock Draft: Investing in the Trenches

[LAD_Brooklyn]

13: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

McShay writes:

The Jets’ 2022 rookie class produced both the offensive (Garrett Wilson) and defensive (Sauce Gardner) Rookie of the Year. Can GM Joe Douglas hit on a first-rounder again, this time outside the top 10?

The Jets were middle of the pack in sacks allowed (42, 19th) and pass block win rate (57.1%, 21st) last season. But consider that George Fant is hitting free agency, Duane Brown will be 38 years old, Alijah Vera-Tucker is more of a guard and returning from a triceps injury and Mekhi Becton has played one game since his 2020 rookie year. If New York does find a way to bring in Aaron Rodgers or another veteran QB, it will need to protect him. Jones didn’t allow a single sack over 15 starts last year, showcasing the ability to stall both speed and power off the edge.

 

 

[Tranquilo]

You can never go wrong drafting OL

[oatmeal]

I like this pick

[varjet]

They have to pick a T in round 1 and a C in round 2 (better) or 3.  If the first three rounds look like LT, WR or C, C or WR, and the value fits, the Jets will be in good shape. 

Becton can be franchised if he is the answer at RT, but I highly doubt that will be the case.  

[PepPep]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

They have to pick a T in round 1 and a C in round 2 (better) or 3.  If the first three rounds look like LT, WR or C, C or WR, and the value fits, the Jets will be in good shape. 

Becton can be franchised if he is the answer at RT, but I highly doubt that will be the case.  

They don't HAVE to do anything lol. Its all relative. Let's see what happens in FA, who ends up the QB and what we end up giving up for him. 

Yes, I do think the Jets will draft a T early. Its a high value position and they could def. use the depth and someone to take over if/when Becton/Mitchell/Brown don't pan out. But if we trade our 1st rounder for Rodgers and/or somehow get our mitts on a stud like McGlinchey, that changes things. I also don't think we end up drafting a C early. There's a lot of quality FA Centers out there and if McGovern does not come back, I can see us going after a quality Center and signing him to a multi-year deal. 

What if we cut Davis and Berrios to free up cap- like so many have suggested? If Johnston slides to 13 I would not be surprised if we go after him instead of O-line. Again, it just depends so much on FA, what happens at the QB position, and who is available in the draft. 

Here's another scenario. We whiff on the big time QBs and end up with a JAG vet. But at least it allows us to fill most of our holes. Then lo and behold one of the top 3 QBs slides within reach of a trade. Would it shock anyone if JD made a move to trade up a few spots and take Young, Stroud or Levis? We may have to give up our 2nd rounder to do this (instead of drafting a C).   

[BurntDice]

Sign me up if he’s good. Haven’t looked into him much. I’ve been digging Brian Branch (S) from bama

[jbt]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

You can never go wrong drafting OL

[hotrodcharlie]

You worry about his experience. Prior to this season he only started 4 college games. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, whom he has similarities to, started nearly 50 college games prior to his arrival.

It is a big deal because experienced NFL D-linemen will throw everything and the kitchen sink at him. 

 

[rex-n-effect]

I agree the draft is a good place to shore up the OL but we don't even know if the team will have a first round pick by the time the draft rolls around.

[BurntDice]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

You can never go wrong drafting OL

I’m very iffy on this take. Look at the playoff teams. They don’t draft first round OL very often. The last one for the chiefs was 10 years ago. The eagles are starting a 7th rounder at LT. We’d be at 3 in 4 years. 

[derp]

17 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I’m very iffy on this take. Look at the playoff teams. They don’t draft first round OL very often. The last one for the chiefs was 10 years ago. The eagles are starting a 7th rounder at LT. We’d be at 3 in 4 years. 

If the Jets hold on to Brown, I think a developmental guy is the way to go. The issue is that the need is for a LT, and LT prospects don't often slide outside the first. There are two clear cut ones in the first this year (Johnson and Jones), another G/T in the first (Skoronski), and then maybe a guy or two who are considered LT prospects and generally ranked day two but probably not day one guys (Harrison, Duncan).

The draft pick you're referencing for the Chiefs was their LT for a while. Then when they moved on from him they used their first round pick to trade for Orlando Brown. So they've invested first rounders in LT, just not the rest of their OL. Jets have invested first rounders in the OL, but don't have a LT to show for it.

About half the league has a guy they spent a first round pick on penciled in at LT and then a couple teams have guys they traded first round picks for at LT. Some of the really bad lines in the league are the ones that don't fall into those categories.

Eagles got lucky with Mailata. First round caliber athlete who'd never played the sport before. Not really a blueprint that can be followed in the future.

[THE BARON]

2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

You can never go wrong drafting OL

Unless it is Becton

[Warfish]

In every mock I do, I find myself walking away with 2-3x O-linemen.

It's time, the unit MUST be fixed now.  Regardless of who plays QB, and who we fantasize might come back from years of injury.

What I want, in order:

1. Two more top O-line, so much so I go O-line with 1st and 2nd round picks.  Skoronski in the 1st, Jones in the 2nd?

2. Another impact RB.  Anyone not named Hall or Carter is gone, they all proved how poop they are.   And Carter himself is fringe IMO.  Devon Achane from Texas A&M in the 3rd perhaps?  A blazingly fast HR hitter good in open space.

3. A LB, mid-rounds.  But I'm also keeping Mosely and resigning both our FA's.  

4. A WR, mid-rounds.  A guy for behind Wilson/Moore/Mims (yes Mims gets another year).

5. A Developmental QB.  Clayton Tune in the 6th, perhaps?

6. The one and only FB in this draft (late rounds likely) Hunter Luepke.  Pave the road for the RB's, provide some vital pass blocking.  Possible #1 Undrafted FA, or trade for more late picks scenario.

 

 

[Augustiniak]

If the jets keep the pick it’s likely OL.  Highly doubt they trade this year’s #1 even for Rodgers, it would probably be next year’s pick and a conditional at that. 

I could also see them trading back from 13 and still going OL.  

[BurntDice]

20 minutes ago, derp said:

If the Jets hold on to Brown, I think a developmental guy is the way to go. The issue is that the need is for a LT, and LT prospects don't often slide outside the first. There are two clear cut ones in the first this year (Johnson and Jones), another G/T in the first (Skoronski), and then maybe a guy or two who are considered LT prospects and generally ranked day two but probably not day one guys (Harrison, Duncan).

The draft pick you're referencing for the Chiefs was their LT for a while. Then when they moved on from him they used their first round pick to trade for Orlando Brown. So they've invested first rounders in LT, just not the rest of their OL. Jets have invested first rounders in the OL, but don't have a LT to show for it.

About half the league has a guy they spent a first round pick on penciled in at LT and then a couple teams have guys they traded first round picks for at LT. Some of the really bad lines in the league are the ones that don't fall into those categories.

Eagles got lucky with Mailata. First round caliber athlete who'd never played the sport before. Not really a blueprint that can be followed in the future.

I totally agree that a developmental LT is needed. I haven’t done a lot of research into this draft, but it the mocks it seems like there are a decent amount of solid guys in the 2nd-4th round like Wright, Mauch, McClendon and others. Don’t forget we still have Becton who while often injured has played well while on the field and is in his contract year so has s good chance of balling out to get a contract. 
 

For Center I’d be all for drafting someone in the 3rd or 4th like Avila or Patterson. OL does not need to be drafted in the first.
 

The game no longer revolves around throwing deep (requiring pocket time) with a qb who can’t move around the pocket or run. It’s all about having great receivers who get open fast. The ttt is very fast now in the 2 second range. OL don’t need to hold their blocks for nearly as long as they used to. 

[Sperm Edwards]

The problems at tackle weren't due to a lack of talent so much as it was they saw so many tackles go on IR at one time or another

1. Becton missed the whole season (again) on IR
2. Brown had a freak shoulder injury like 5 min after signing, starting out on IR or PUP or whatever the designation
3. Fant was never healthy enough to start early-on, then went on IR
4. Mitchell started out well before they wanted, and then found himself on IR in October
5. Then after Brown was reactivated, they moved AVT from LT to RT after Mitchell went down, and then he goes on IR in October, too
6. Then Ogbuehi fills in for AVT/Mitchell/Fant/Becton at RT, and after a few games, he goes on IR for a month, too.
7. Also just mentioning, whatever they hoped to find in re-signing Senat, he missed the season on IR also

I mean what the eff. Nobody's deep enough to absorb all those injuries at tackle.

[HighPitch]

3 hours ago, varjet said:

They have to pick a T in round 1 and a C in round 2 (better) or 3.  If the first three rounds look like LT, WR or C, C or WR, and the value fits, the Jets will be in good shape. 

Becton can be franchised if he is the answer at RT, but I highly doubt that will be the case.  

thats right it will be the polish kid from northwestern OT and the schmitz C in the second. A slam dumk

[HighPitch]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

In every mock I do, I find myself walking away with 2-3x O-linemen.

It's time, the unit MUST be fixed now.  Regardless of who plays QB, and who we fantasize might come back from years of injury.

What I want, in order:

1. Two more top O-line, so much so I go O-line with 1st and 2nd round picks.  Skoronski in the 1st, Jones in the 2nd?

2. Another impact RB.  Anyone not named Hall or Carter is gone, they all proved how poop they are.   And Carter himself is fringe IMO.  Devon Achane from Texas A&M in the 3rd perhaps?  A blazingly fast HR hitter good in open space.

3. A LB, mid-rounds.  But I'm also keeping Mosely and resigning both our FA's.  

4. A WR, mid-rounds.  A guy for behind Wilson/Moore/Mims (yes Mims gets another year).

5. A Developmental QB.  Clayton Tune in the 6th, perhaps?

6. The one and only FB in this draft (late rounds likely) Hunter Luepke.  Pave the road for the RB's, provide some vital pass blocking.  Possible #1 Undrafted FA, or trade for more late picks scenario.

 

 

not bad but a RB? never! weve got 2 youngsters that rock

[GreenFish]

I’d be cool with an all trenches draft. LT, C, DT, DT and Edge.

Pending what happens in FA.

First year in a while I havent looked at a single prospect. 

[Warfish]

10 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

not bad but a RB? never! weve got 2 youngsters that rock

We have one (hurt) RB that rockED, past tense, in a limited time frame. 

We don't know what he'll be going forward (fingers crossed).

We have two JAG's behind him in Carter (a huge 2022 disappointment) and Z.Knight (overrated by fans, and utterly ineffective down the stretch when given an opportunity).

Everyone else behind that is trash.

if we're not going to win via QB play, we need to win on the ground.  Hoping hall is 100% and Carter has a massive rebound is not a good plan for that.  Dump the trash, get another running weapon in here.  And a guy to lead block for them.

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

I’d be cool with an all trenches draft. LT, C, DT, DT and Edge.

Pending what happens in FA.

First year in a while I havent looked at a single prospect. 

Jesus, way too much much Defense.  Our D was ranked 4th in the NFL.  The O was 29th. 

Help those who need help!

(Pending what happens in FA, agreed).

[GreenFish]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Jesus, way too much much Defense.  Our D was ranked 4th in the NFL.  The O was 29th. 

Help those who need help!

(Pending what happens in FA, agreed).

I’m hoping and expecting FA’s to be about the offense.

To me, QB and OL were the main issues. 

[BCJet]

I would much rather see a trade back as we can’t go into the draft “needing” an OT so we run the possibility of having a logjam if we draft one at 13. 
 

Trade back from 13 into the late teens, take John Michael Schmitz and take an OT in the third round to develop into an eventual starter. 

[Alworth]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

In every mock I do, I find myself walking away with 2-3x O-linemen.

It's time, the unit MUST be fixed now.  Regardless of who plays QB, and who we fantasize might come back from years of injury.

What I want, in order:

1. Two more top O-line, so much so I go O-line with 1st and 2nd round picks.  Skoronski in the 1st, Jones in the 2nd?

2. Another impact RB.  Anyone not named Hall or Carter is gone, they all proved how poop they are.   And Carter himself is fringe IMO.  Devon Achane from Texas A&M in the 3rd perhaps?  A blazingly fast HR hitter good in open space.

3. A LB, mid-rounds.  But I'm also keeping Mosely and resigning both our FA's.  

4. A WR, mid-rounds.  A guy for behind Wilson/Moore/Mims (yes Mims gets another year).

5. A Developmental QB.  Clayton Tune in the 6th, perhaps?

6. The one and only FB in this draft (late rounds likely) Hunter Luepke.  Pave the road for the RB's, provide some vital pass blocking.  Possible #1 Undrafted FA, or trade for more late picks scenario.

 

 

Well thought out. The best thing is that, assuming we keep our draft picks,  it's very realistic (except for the 2nd round availability of Jones), Examples of the realism are tolerating Mims and factoring in the need to cut Davis for cap space. Good job.

[derp]

1 hour ago, BurntDice said:

I totally agree that a developmental LT is needed. I haven’t done a lot of research into this draft, but it the mocks it seems like there are a decent amount of solid guys in the 2nd-4th round like Wright, Mauch, McClendon and others. Don’t forget we still have Becton who while often injured has played well while on the field and is in his contract year so has s good chance of balling out to get a contract. 
 

For Center I’d be all for drafting someone in the 3rd or 4th like Avila or Patterson. OL does not need to be drafted in the first.
 

The game no longer revolves around throwing deep (requiring pocket time) with a qb who can’t move around the pocket or run. It’s all about having great receivers who get open fast. The ttt is very fast now in the 2 second range. OL don’t need to hold their blocks for nearly as long as they used to. 

I was focused on left tackle. You’re almost exclusively talking about other spots.

Wright is a right tackle only. He was undraftable until he switched to the right side in college. Mauch has short arms and likely has to move inside. McClendon was a college right tackle as well.

I agree Becton might have a big contract year, but him having a big contract year doesn’t necessarily make him a long term answer at left tackle I’d feel good about. They still need to work on a long term answer there.

Avila won’t be there in the third. Both those guys played guard late in college as well, not center, though they’d played center earlier in their careers. They won’t be taking a first round center anyway, not should they. Again, I was talking about left tackles. 

Changes to the game don’t change how teams value the left tackle position. The information I posted was current, not old. Bigger problem is when guys get beat immediately too, and defensive linemen are faster and more explosive than ever.

Time to throw is closer to 3 seconds than 2. Doesn’t take that long for a defensive lineman to get to a quarterback if he beats his man off the snap. And the run game isn’t primary but it’s still a factor too.

[BurntDice]

11 minutes ago, derp said:

I was focused on left tackle. You’re almost exclusively talking about other spots.

Wright is a right tackle only. He was undraftable until he switched to the right side in college. Mauch has short arms and likely has to move inside. McClendon was a college right tackle as well.

I agree Becton might have a big contract year, but him having a big contract year doesn’t necessarily make him a long term answer at left tackle I’d feel good about. They still need to work on a long term answer there.

Avila won’t be there in the third. Both those guys played guard late in college as well, not center, though they’d played center earlier in their careers. They won’t be taking a first round center anyway, not should they. Again, I was talking about left tackles. 

Changes to the game don’t change how teams value the left tackle position. The information I posted was current, not old. Bigger problem is when guys get beat immediately too, and defensive linemen are faster and more explosive than ever.

Time to throw is closer to 3 seconds than 2. Doesn’t take that long for a defensive lineman to get to a quarterback if he beats his man off the snap. And the run game isn’t primary but it’s still a factor too.

So we have 2 guys right now who while on the field have proven to be at least average starters in Becton and Brown at LT, but let’s draft a 3rd in the first round right? There are other guys in the draft who can be taken and given time to develop. Again, I haven’t done a ton of research into this one yet, but the rookie won’t need to start day one. There are usually at least a few of those guys in the draft. 

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, BurntDice said:

Sign me up if he’s good. Haven’t looked into him much. I’ve been digging Brian Branch (S) from bama

Nobody smacked you around yet in this thread for suggesting a Safety in Round 1?  You're lucky. lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But that luck just ran out.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

3 hours ago, BurntDice said:

I’m very iffy on this take. Look at the playoff teams. They don’t draft first round OL very often. The last one for the chiefs was 10 years ago. The eagles are starting a 7th rounder at LT. We’d be at 3 in 4 years. 

Chiefs traded a 1st rounder for a OT. 

[BurntDice]

14 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Nobody smacked you around yet in this thread for suggesting a Safety in Round 1?  You're lucky. lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But that luck just ran out.

He looks so good though! 

[BurntDice]

6 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Chiefs traded a 1st rounder for a OT. 

Alright so 2 in 10 years. We’ll be at 3 in 4. That is not the path to success. Having great skill position guys, an average or above average line, a good qb, a decent D. Those are the staples of winning teams. Not having a bulletproof OL filled with first rounders and high priced players 

[derp]

54 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

So we have 2 guys right now who while on the field have proven to be at least average starters in Becton and Brown at LT, but let’s draft a 3rd in the first round right? There are other guys in the draft who can be taken and given time to develop. Again, I haven’t done a ton of research into this one yet, but the rookie won’t need to start day one. There are usually at least a few of those guys in the draft. 

I’m not saying they need to draft a tackle in the first. What I am saying is they need a long term answer at left tackle and most starting left tackles come from the first round. Outside of there teams are throwing darts. There is probably roughly one good LT drafted outside the first every year. It’s not easy to find and develop a guy.

Brown will be 38 at the start of the next season and missed games to end the year. Becton has played part of one of the last 34 games and missed a lot of time his rookie year. Neither is signed past this year. The team needs a long term answer. And tackles don’t often come out of the gate ready to go.

Regarding the prospects, you’re kind of repeating what I said in my original post that you came back at, only you (admittedly at this point) know less about the prospects this year, which is why you threw out right tackles and guards in your response. There are basically 4 LT prospects in this draft. Two are going in the first, because it’s a valued position. The other two are basically dart throws, if they were better prospects they’d go higher.

There’s a reason teams don’t often wait to develop tackles. The hit rate is really, really low. 

So again they certainly don’t have to draft one, but if there’s a guy there they should consider it because there’s no long term answer on the roster and those guys are usually found in the first.

[derp]

4 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

Alright so 2 in 10 years. We’ll be at 3 in 4. That is not the path to success. Having great skill position guys, an average or above average line, a good qb, a decent D. Those are the staples of winning teams. Not having a bulletproof OL filled with first rounders and high priced players 

Instead of looking at the offensive line as a whole, look at the left tackle position. That’s two first round picks in ten years on left tackle for the Chiefs. The Eagles also spent two first round picks in ten years on left tackle caliber prospects - Lane Johnson’s been elite on the right side but easily could’ve played left - and they had an elite LT they fell into when they drafted him. They missed on Dillard too and then fell into Mailata.

Teams spend first round picks on left tackles there when they don't have a long term answer. The issue isn’t taking a LT again, it’s missing on Becton and drafting a guard in the first.

[BurntDice]

4 minutes ago, derp said:

Instead of looking at the offensive line as a whole, look at the left tackle position. That’s two first round picks in ten years on left tackle for the Chiefs. The Eagles also spent two first round picks in ten years on left tackle caliber prospects - Lane Johnson’s been elite on the right side but easily could’ve played left - and they had an elite LT they fell into when they drafted him. They missed on Dillard too and then fell into Mailata.

Teams spend first round picks on left tackles there when they don't have a long term answer. The issue isn’t taking a LT again, it’s missing on Becton and drafting a guard in the first.

You’re starting to sell me on the LT idea. In general I’m just for building a more well rounded team instead of being like the lions who have a great OL, but are in dire need of star power at many other positions 

[T0mShane]

Legit shocking that ESPN would put McShay’s trash behind the paywall. 

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

You can never go wrong drafting OL