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Compensatory picks, are they doing what they were intended to do?


Beerfish

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I did a little more research looking at # of comp picks vs team records over the last 21 years.  If you are a really good team you are helped to stay good by more comp picks, if you are a poor team you are helped to stay poor by lack of picks.  Also they must have rejigged the formula about 10 - 15 years ago as initially not many 3rd rounders but lots of late rounders but far more higher picks as time went on.  (Not just due to the minority hiring bonus picks)

Team Wins 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th Total Comp pick rank Wins rank
Baltimore Ravens 197 7 15 11 9 6 48 1 5
Los Angeles Rams 147 7 5 5 7 16 40 2 25
New England Patriots 246 9 4 5 13 7 38 3 1
San Francisco 49ers 159 8 5 5 8 10 36 4 19
Green Bay Packers 211 3 9 9 5 9 35 5 3
Cincinnati Bengals 161 6 3 2 7 13 31 6 18
Seattle Seahawks 195 5 3 2 8 10 28 8 7
Dallas Cowboys 186 1 5 9 9 4 28 7 10
Philadelphia Eagles 195 1 7 2 7 9 26 9 8
Tennessee Titans 170 4 5 3 4 8 24 10 15
Kansas City Chiefs 191 6 1 4 8 4 23 11 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 213 3 5 6 3 5 22 12 2
Las Vegas Raiders 127 2 1 2 8 8 21 13 30
Indianapolis Colts 205 1 5 4 7 3 20 16 4
Denver Broncos 180 5 2 2 2 9 20 15 12
Arizona Cardinals 150 2 1 3 4 10 20 14 24
Atlanta Falcons 171 2 4 4 2 7 19 17 14
New York Giants 158 2 2 3 5 7 19 18 20
Houston Texans 142 3 1 1 7 6 18 19 26
Carolina Panthers 166 3 0 3 8 3 17 20 16
Los Angeles Chargers 182 2 2 3 2 7 16 21 11
Minnesota Vikings 177 1 3 1 6 5 16 22 13
Miami Dolphins 155 1 1 4 3 6 15 23 22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 151 0 2 1 2 9 14 26 23
New York Jets 135 2 2 0 5 5 14 25 29
Cleveland Browns 100 3 3 3 2 3 14 24 32
Detroit Lions 120 2 3 1 2 5 13 27 31
Chicago Bears 156 1 1 1 3 6 12 28 21
Washington Commanders 138 3 1 1 2 5 12 29 28
New Orleans Saints 196 4 0 0 1 3 8 30 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 140 0 1 0 1 5 7 31 27
Buffalo Bills 163 0 2 0 1 3 6 32 17

 

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On 2/17/2023 at 10:27 AM, bla bla bla said:

Minority coaching hires like Saleh, Ryan's, and possibly McDaniel will net them each a 3rd round comp - smart organizations should take note of this. Hoping Middleton gets a chance somewhere at some point.

 

The player comp picks are rewarded for teams who draft well. Rather than trading or cutting away talent early to save money or attain early picks, teams are awarded comp picks for retaining a player. (This also extends players careers and allows more players to be drafted)

Smart teams draft well and let talent walk

Bad teams draft poorly and overpay for talent that other teams let walk

Mdliddleton is older and stuck on a bad team for the last couple of years. Good guy, well liked, but he will never be hired as a HC. 

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16 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Mdliddleton is older and stuck on a bad team for the last couple of years. Good guy, well liked, but he will never be hired as a HC. 

Ya never know, Jets have given him a lot of opportunities. It won't shock me if he's promoted to assistant HC at some point during his tenure here.

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9 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Mdliddleton is older and stuck on a bad team for the last couple of years. Good guy, well liked, but he will never be hired as a HC. 

I can be sympathetic to the motivation & goals sought, but also realize that's the part of the minority hire that explicitly favors good rosters, where bad rosters (or coordinators under terrible HCs and/or with terrible rosters) have virtually no chance of getting HC offers because there's no track record for success.

  • Would McDaniel have gotten hired as a HC in 2022 if he was the Shurmer-Judge Giants' running game coordinator from 2017-2020 and then their OC for one season in 2021? Taking nothing away from McDaniel - same person, same coaching style, same from the neck-up - and no one seriously believes he'd have gotten hired as a HC.
  • No one's making HC offers to Pep Hamilton. 
  • Bet Sean Desai has a way better chance of HC offers after 1-2 years as the Eagles' DC instead of being the DC with the Bears & then an "associate HC - Defense" (whatever that is) with the ****ty Seahwaks D. 
  • Someone make the case that Saleh gets the Jets' - or anyone's - HC job if he was the DC in Atlanta instead of San Fran.

Absent a major turnaround in or influx of talent on their side of the football, it's pretty hard for coordinators to earn HC gigs when they accepted & entered challenging situations in the first place.

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