Jump to content

drafting a qb in round 1


Phillyjet

Recommended Posts

I think we need to start talking about this more.  This feels a bit like the Watson/Maholmes draft where spots 10-15 may have a guy drop out of the top 10 who could be a bonafide solid option in a year or two.  I say this with the expectation that we will get on of Rodgers/Carr/Garrapollo for the next 2 years, behind which could sit the prospect.   The cap hit for a guy at 13 would not be as high as it was for Zach, and you could roll into camp with the three, letting Zach and the draft prospect battle for the 2 spot.  

The reality is that if we obtain the vet qb we will likely be picking in the 20's next year, so the chance of getting a solid prospect would be higher in this year's draft.  Other teams would likely be surprised by the pick so may not jump us this year, particularly on the heels of us bringing in one of the top 3.  Finally, this would also give the Jets control for 5-6 years (including the franchise tag) for a round 1 prospect, which would permit them the flexibility to resign the guys from last year's draft class (particularly Sauce and Wilson). 

And who is it gonna be?

Guys who could drop to that spot include Levis, Hooker, and Richardson, and maybe even Stroud.  But a couple of those guys will be there.  I'd like one of Hooker (buy low, coming off the ACL) or Levis.  Richardson seems to be too much boom or bust.  

Pick up the center in Round 2, pick up an extra tackle in FA (McGlinchey?), guard later in the draft.  

Thoughts?  

EDIT: Hooker would be a round 2-3 target if we waited.  But could be a solid developmental project.

  • Upvote 4
  • Thumb Down 5
  • Post of the Week 3
  • Ugh 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

I think we need to start talking about this more.  This feels a bit like the Watson/Maholmes draft where spots 10-15 may have a guy drop out of the top 10 who could be a bonafide solid option in a year or two.  I say this with the expectation that we will get on of Rodgers/Carr/Garrapollo for the next 2 years, behind which could sit the prospect.   The cap hit for a guy at 13 would not be as high as it was for Zach, and you could roll into camp with the three, letting Zach and the draft prospect battle for the 2 spot.  

The reality is that if we obtain the vet qb we will likely be picking in the 20's next year, so the chance of getting a solid prospect would be higher in this year's draft.  Other teams would likely be surprised by the pick so may not jump us this year, particularly on the heels of us bringing in one of the top 3.  Finally, this would also give the Jets control for 5-6 years (including the franchise tag) for a round 1 prospect, which would permit them the flexibility to resign the guys from last year's draft class (particularly Sauce and Wilson). 

And who is it gonna be?

Guys who could drop to that spot include Levis, Hooker, and Richardson, and maybe even Stroud.  But a couple of those guys will be there.  I'd like one of Hooker (buy low, coming off the ACL) or Levis.  Richardson seems to be too much boom or bust.  

Pick up the center in Round 2, pick up an extra tackle in FA (McGlinchey?), guard later in the draft.  

Thoughts?  

I been saying this a while, we crap out on Rodgers, Jackson I rather draft a rookie tbh

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Rodgers stays in GB I prefer signing Jimmy G/Tannehill to short term deals and developing a QB behind them far more than hitching your wagon to Derek Carr for five years...you can make the playoffs with those guys an hopefully you hit on a QB that is the long term answer. 

  • Upvote 3
  • Sympathy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

I think we need to start talking about this more.  This feels a bit like the Watson/Maholmes draft where spots 10-15 may have a guy drop out of the top 10 who could be a bonafide solid option in a year or two.  I say this with the expectation that we will get on of Rodgers/Carr/Garrapollo for the next 2 years, behind which could sit the prospect.   The cap hit for a guy at 13 would not be as high as it was for Zach, and you could roll into camp with the three, letting Zach and the draft prospect battle for the 2 spot.  

The reality is that if we obtain the vet qb we will likely be picking in the 20's next year, so the chance of getting a solid prospect would be higher in this year's draft.  Other teams would likely be surprised by the pick so may not jump us this year, particularly on the heels of us bringing in one of the top 3.  Finally, this would also give the Jets control for 5-6 years (including the franchise tag) for a round 1 prospect, which would permit them the flexibility to resign the guys from last year's draft class (particularly Sauce and Wilson). 

And who is it gonna be?

Guys who could drop to that spot include Levis, Hooker, and Richardson, and maybe even Stroud.  But a couple of those guys will be there.  I'd like one of Hooker (buy low, coming off the ACL) or Levis.  Richardson seems to be too much boom or bust.  

Pick up the center in Round 2, pick up an extra tackle in FA (McGlinchey?), guard later in the draft.  

Thoughts?  

EDIT: Hooker would be a round 2-3 target if we waited.  But could be a solid developmental project.

Question: with draft pick + Wilson as your two QB’s, who is starting in 2023?

And how is this different than the failed methodology we’ve used the past 12-20 years at QB?

  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Levitz and richardson would be the only realistic options that we could trade up into the top 10 to get.

If Joe D believes in one of these guys, absolutely do it!!!

I’d love to be up drafting Richardson AND trading for Rodgers. Let Rodgers play 2 years, Richardson just sits and watches. If Aaron still playing at a high level, the kid sits the 3rd year too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Levitz and richardson would be the only realistic options that we could trade up into the top 10 to get.

If Joe D believes in one of these guys, absolutely do it!!!

Joe Douglas sucks donkey balls at drafting QB's.  You are disgusting. 

3 minutes ago, GreenBeans said:

Build the line, take Aidan O'Connell, Purdue in round 3. 

 

Joe Douglas picked Captain Morgan. Guy should never, ever, ever draft another QB. 

  • Thumb Down 1
  • Post of the Week 2
  • More Ugh 2
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Levitz and richardson would be the only realistic options that we could trade up into the top 10 to get.

If Joe D believes in one of these guys, absolutely do it!!!

Yeah because he can be trusted to pick a QB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People who want to give Saleh and Douglas another crack at a highly drafted QB are daffy.

I don’t even know why people keep discussing it when the coach, GM and owner have all come out and publicly said that adding a veteran QB is the highest priority.

It’s going to be either Rodgers, Carr, Garoppolo or Tannehill.

Discussing anyone else besides those four is a complete waste of time.

  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think your general idea is sound. This is a class with 4 QB’s, the Jets are in shouting distance of the third or fourth guy at 13 via trade up and the fourth could just fall to them, the veteran won’t be for long, and they probably won’t be picking this high next year if they have reasonable QB play.

That all said I’ve got this internal conflict between genuinely believing that the most solid plan for this team would be to bring in a 1-2 year bridge veteran and draft somebody this year or next and having no faith in the GM to pick the right quarterback or the offensive coaching staff to develop him.

  • Post of the Week 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phillyjet said:

I say this with the expectation that we will get on of Rodgers/Carr/Garrapollo for the next 2 years, behind which could sit the prospect. 

imagine getting Rodgers and then doing the exact same thing that pissed him off in GB. drafting a QB in rd 1 instead of getting him help to win a SB. he might retire before the season starts.

if we get any of those 3 guys you mentioned we are making a run for the SB, or at least trying to. you draft to help win that SB not for a future QB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10+12 is where Mahomes & Watson went, but the latter only slid that far over stupidity over a radar gun at the combine.

I find it amusing to presume that's what this (or any) draft has in store at that point. 

~10+ of round 1 is also where teams found (or could have drafted, based on projections):

  • 2019 Haskins (15)
  • 2018 Rosen (proj as high as 2, or even 1)
  • 2016 Lynch (proj as high as 9 iirc)
  • 2015 (none)
  • 2014 Manziel (proj as high as 1)
  • 2013 EJ Manuel (16)
  • 2012 Tannehill (8)
  • 2011 Locker (8), Gabbert (10), Ponder (12)
  • (keep going back further if one likes, but any success will also be offset with the likes of Brady Quinn, once projected as high as 3, and thought a lock at 10 to Miami if he'd slid that far)

The point is the draft serving up two top-5 QBs at picks ~10-15 (give or take) is at best a once in a generation occurrence. Two in the 2nd tier group of the same draft? Other than 2017, I can't recall it happening. 

I wonder if the hit rate is higher in the middle of round 2 vs the middle of round 1. Someone else can look it up, lol.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Warfish said:

Question: with draft pick + Wilson as your two QB’s, who is starting in 2023?

And how is this different than the failed methodology we’ve used the past 12-20 years at QB?

You sign a Trubisky, Minshew type as your starter. Zach (I know, I know) is the backup the rookie is the #3 who sits and learns.

I’d also be okay with the rookie as the backup getting snaps every week with the scout team if that’s what the CS thought was best. Zach is irrelevant.

One caveat… if we’re not moving up for either a. Stroud or b. Young, scrap my entire plan.

  • Sympathy 1
  • Post of the Week 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

It’s not happening.  Jets have made it abundantly clear that they’re going to get a veteran here.  

Depends on the veteran though, I’d imagine. If we miss out on Rodgers and Carr, that brings a lot of mid level guys into play, and also opens up other options.

When you think about it, Carr might be the only guy who eliminates the need to think about trying to get another QB in the draft. He’s probably going to be the starter for 5 years if you get him.

  • Upvote 1
  • Sympathy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I certainly think the jets need to draft a qb. I’m not so keen on them drafting one in the first or second rounds. Purdy was an anomaly but shows that a competent qb on a good team can have good success so a guy from the 3 rd and lower rounds may be able to be developed. The jets need to get the oline and safety spots straightened out before they can think qb in this draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember when Jimmy Johnson drafted two QB's, Steve Walsh and Troy Aikman. I think Aikman won one game his rookie season, then JJ traded Walsh away and all the genius talking heads and prognosticators poo pooed it. LOL. Good times.

Too bad we don't have football guys like JJ running this team. We have genius talking heads.

  • More Ugh 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

Bryce Young and Will Levi’s are the 2 good qbs in this draft both will be gone by the time we pick

What don’t you like about Stroud besides the Ohio St thing? The size and arm are there, I’m not sure I buy your theory he’ll never be able to read an NFL defense.

(that said, I can’t name a good NFL QB who came out of the school, so what do I know)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

10+12 is where Mahomes & Watson went, but the latter only slid that far over stupidity over a radar gun at the combine.

I find it amusing to presume that's what this (or any) draft has in store at that point. 

~10+ of round 1 is also where teams found (or could have drafted, based on projections):

  • 2019 Haskins (15)
  • 2018 Rosen (proj as high as 2, or even 1)
  • 2016 Lynch (proj as high as 9 iirc)
  • 2015 (none)
  • 2014 Manziel (proj as high as 1)
  • 2013 EJ Manuel (16)
  • 2012 Tannehill (8)
  • 2011 Locker (8), Gabbert (10), Ponder (12)
  • (keep going back further if one likes, but any success will also be offset with the likes of Brady Quinn, once projected as high as 3, and thought a lock at 10 to Miami if he'd slid that far)

The point is the draft serving up two top-5 QBs at picks ~10-15 (give or take) is at best a once in a generation occurrence. Two in the 2nd tier group of the same draft? Other than 2017, I can't recall it happening. 

I wonder if the hit rate is higher in the middle of round 2 vs the middle of round 1. Someone else can look it up, lol.

You think the hit rate in the 10-15 range is bad you should check out the hit rate 2-5 overall. Need to go back almost 15 years to find the most recent franchise QB and almost 20 to find the one before him.

My theory is that once you get to 6 or so the cost isn’t too prohibitive to go up and get a guy and the teams are usually better than the ones picking 2-5 so it’s more reasonable for them to not put too much on a guy’s plate.

This year could easily be 2011 but there’s a chance it’s a 2017 type draft too. Think a couple of these four end up worth a top ten pick, even if it’s just for a good ride during their rookie deal a-la Goff/Wentz.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Green Ghost said:

What don’t you like about Stroud besides the Ohio St thing? The size and arm are there, I’m not sure I buy your theory he’ll never be able to read an NFL defense.

(that said, I can’t name a good NFL QB who came out of the school, so what do I know)

I don’t like Ohio state quarterbacks because they always get overrated based on them playing with multiple future nfl all pro wide receivers 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Rich Thornburgh said:

I don’t like Ohio state quarterbacks because they always get overrated based on them playing with multiple future nfl all pro wide receivers 

I figured that was it, and it’s been my issue with Bama QBs also. You’d figure one of these guys might “be a guy” though…

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

I figured that was it, and it’s been my issue with Bama QBs also. You’d figure one of these guys might “be a guy” though…

Yeah but whatever reason Bama QBs have been ok in the nfl recently.  Tua, Jones.  They haven’t been great but they have been competent

 

I like young’s field vision and throwing technique a lot.  Yeah he’s not 6’5 250 and runs a 4.1 40 but he can read defenses and thread needles

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...