Football Outsiders DYAR and DVOA for Potential 2023 QBs

[Barry McCockinner]

This is just a raw dump of some passing analytics for the top 5 QB's being mentioned. Pretty much shows what our eyes told us about Rodgers being the big dog. Not sure what, if anything, to take from the rest of it.

Given Rodgers ranked so highly in 2020 & 2021 I think it's safe to say his thumb and lack of weapons played a major role in the drop off in 2022.

Quote

 

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2022

	2019		2020		2021		2022		Average
	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA
Carr	6	8	7	9	8	11	17	19	9.5	11.75
Goroppolo	11	11			10	5	8	1	9.67	5.67
L. Jackson	5	2	22	21	21	19	19	14	16.75	14
Rodgers	8	13	2	1	2	1	16	21	7	9
Tannehill	10	5	6	6	27	27	20	16	15.75	13.5

[Beerfish]

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

[Larz]

Superbowl?

[BurntDice]

25 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

Football is the ultimate team game. Brady never won without a great D. Mahomes is looking like he may turn into the goat. He has Kelce who’s one of the best tes ever, and a pretty decent supporting cast. 

[Barry McCockinner]

27 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

Being 40 is a risk for sure. Ignoring the thumb injury on his throwing hand also seems silly when the two years prior he was right up there at 1 & 2 for dyar and dvoa.

[RutgersJetFan]

37 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

For these specific statistics, an injury and surrounding cast are two very different things. They control for the latter, but can’t for the former. 

[undertow]

Do I need special 3-D glasses to read this?

[UnknownJetFan]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

I can’t help that though a great play when we beat GB this year, but if an over 300lb DL in QW can easily catch you as a QB in the open backfield when any QB normally runs to the right and evades rushes like that, is Rogers going to be too immobile now wheres in the past his mobility was such a strength.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

17 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

This is just a raw dump of some passing analytics for the top 5 QB's being mentioned. Pretty much shows what our eyes told us about Rodgers being the big dog. Not sure what, if anything, to take from the rest of it.

Given Rodgers ranked so highly in 2020 & 2021 I think it's safe to say his thumb and lack of weapons played a major role in the drop off in 2022.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2022

 

	2019		2020		2021		2022		Average
	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA	DYAR	DVOA
Carr	6	8	7	9	8	11	17	19	9.5	11.75
Goroppolo	11	11			10	5	8	1	9.67	5.67
L. Jackson	5	2	22	21	21	19	19	14	16.75	14
Rodgers	8	13	2	1	2	1	16	21	7	9
Tannehill	10	5	6	6	27	27	20	16	15.75	13.5

I'm not a Football Outsiders believer, but based on these number, stay very far away from Jackson and Tannehill.  And if Rodgers gets a pass for 2022, doesn't Carr? He played the season without 2 of his top 3 weapons in Renfro and Waller and had to play for a HC who is not known as a QB whisperer.  And why isn't it logical to think that Rodgers is just getting old? Once players hit a certain age, they fall off a cliff rather than steadily decline.  Rodgers is a massive gamble.  

[Barry McCockinner]

26 minutes ago, undertow said:

Do I need special 3-D glasses to read this?

no but an enigma machine would be useful

[Barry McCockinner]

11 minutes ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I'm not a Football Outsiders believer, but based on these number, stay very far away from Jackson and Tannehill.  And if Rodgers gets a pass for 2002, doesn't Carr? He played the season without 2 of his top 3 weapons in Renfro and Waller and had to play for a HC who is not known as a QB whisperer.  And why isn't it logical to think that Rodgers is just getting old? Once players hit a certain age, they fall off a cliff rather than steadily decline.  Rodgers is a massive gamble.  

I think it's reasonable to think douche McDaniels is part of the reason Carr struggled last year.

Agree Rodgers is a gamble. I also think playing QB in the NFL with a broken thumb on your throwing hand is probably a significant handicap.

[JohnnyLV]

8 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think it's reasonable to think douche McDaniels is part of the reason Carr struggled last year.

Agree Rodgers is a gamble. I also think playing QB in the NFL with a broken thumb on your throwing hand is probably a significant handicap.

Age and lack of motivation are far more likely as explanations but no one wants to recognize that QBs fall off a cliff around 38 almost without exception, and his thumb was not broken for 17 games. He put up that stinker Week 18 all by himself with the NFL doing everything they could possibly do to get him in the playoffs. Rodgers is an incredibly bad move. It is insanely risky and desperate and no real analysis that is objective can justify it. Just hope.

[jetswinbaby!]

These stats prove it...

Certified used Carr is good...

Buy it...

[bgivs21]

3 minutes ago, jetswinbaby! said:

These stats prove it...

Certified used Carr is good...

Buy it...

Carr is the equivalent of Kirk Cousins. Cousins DVOA ranking 2019-2021 - 10,10,8. DVYAR ranking 2019-2021 - 7,8,7. 

Obviously Carr is better than anyone currently on the roster but IMO if we sign him we will be in the same sort of football purgatory the Vikings are in. 

Carr is not good enough to carry a team. 

[Barry McCockinner]

29 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Carr is the equivalent of Kirk Cousins. Cousins DVOA ranking 2019-2021 - 10,10,8. DVYAR ranking 2019-2021 - 7,8,7. 

Obviously Carr is better than anyone currently on the roster but IMO if we sign him we will be in the same sort of football purgatory the Vikings are in. 

Carr is not good enough to carry a team. 

I don't see Carr as a guy who can carry a team but there aren't many guys I'd put in that category. The only way to get one is to get lucky drafting one. 

Carr is a guy you can win with if you have a good team IMO. That doesn't mean football purgatory - you can win a chip with him if the team is good enough. You can win a chip with Cousins too. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't. People used to say Peyton Manning would never win one. They used to say Matt Stafford couldn't win one. They used to say Andy Reid would never win one. Then they do and you can't say it anymore.

[Bungaman]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

no but an enema machine would be useful

FIFY.

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

Interesting how both Brady and Mahomes had/have the 2 best TEs in NFL history. Nice compensation for midling WRs.   Jets have a Broadway musical producer, a raw, local rookie and a main guy who has a boatload of trouble catching a football at that position. 

[bla bla bla]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People never seem to give a fig about most of the Qbs in the league, their injuries and their bad rosters but good lord if one of the top guys has a bad year it is all about injuries and the roster.  If you are mr awesome forget blaming the roster, Brady had terrible Wrs for years and still did great.  Mahomes hardly had a stellar Wr cast this year.  Carr has never had a defense worth spit ever.

Putting the big off year on a thumb injury and lack of weapons is a dangerous thing to ignore from a 40 year old QB.

Of the guys out there no question Rodgers has the biggest ceiling but he is at a point in his career that he is a risk.

Completely agree. The 1 thing I will say about Rodgers is that I've never considered him athletically gifted like some other QBs. I do think Rodgers can win with his brain similar to Brady and Brees

[Flea Flicking Frank]

Both stats are more offensive team stats than they are QB stats. There are no current legitimate QB stats that isolate for QB play, all are offensive team stats, where the QB is the most important, but still 1 of 11 and zero account for coaching

[bgivs21]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I don't see Carr as a guy who can carry a team but there aren't many guys I'd put in that category. The only way to get one is to get lucky drafting one. 

Carr is a guy you can win with if you have a good team IMO. That doesn't mean football purgatory - you can win a chip with him if the team is good enough. You can win a chip with Cousins too. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't. People used to say Peyton Manning would never win one. They used to say Matt Stafford couldn't win one. They used to say Andy Reid would never win one. Then they do and you can't say it anymore.

Dude what? Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs to have ever played. Matt Stafford is also much better than Carr ever was and he was surrounded by All-pros on offense and defense when they won. As much as we love G Wilson, he is no where near close to Kupp rn plus that team had OBJ/Woods and Van Jefferson. And Andy Reid has found his missing piece in Mahomes, who when all is said and done might be the best QB ever. 

Like none of those examples track with what Carr brings to the table. Like I said, we'd be in football purgatory for 5 years. A good team but not good enough to win a superbowl. 

Here's a question for you - do the Chiefs beat the Eagles if Cousins or Carr is playing in place of Mahomes? My answer - no. 

 

[Barry McCockinner]

52 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Dude what? Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs to have ever played. Matt Stafford is also much better than Carr ever was and he was surrounded by All-pros on offense and defense when they won. As much as we love G Wilson, he is no where near close to Kupp rn plus that team had OBJ/Woods and Van Jefferson. And Andy Reid has found his missing piece in Mahomes, who when all is said and done might be the best QB ever. 

Like none of those examples track with what Carr brings to the table. Like I said, we'd be in football purgatory for 5 years. A good team but not good enough to win a superbowl. 

Here's a question for you - do the Chiefs beat the Eagles if Cousins or Carr is playing in place of Mahomes? My answer - no. 

 

I'm aware of who Peyton Manning is lol. You don't remember people used to say he would never win a ring? People used to say "great regular season QB, can't win in the playoffs" and crap like that. It wasn't until his 6th season the Colts won a playoff game. Maybe you're not old enough.

I think Stafford is a little better than Carr but not a lot better. People used to say the same type of crap about him. Can't win big games. Great stats, not a super bowl guy.

We agree that Carr and Cousins are not as good as Mahomes. Not sure wtf your point is w/that.

[genot]

2 hours ago, bgivs21 said:

Dude what? Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs to have ever played. Matt Stafford is also much better than Carr ever was and he was surrounded by All-pros on offense and defense when they won. As much as we love G Wilson, he is no where near close to Kupp rn plus that team had OBJ/Woods and Van Jefferson. And Andy Reid has found his missing piece in Mahomes, who when all is said and done might be the best QB ever. 

Like none of those examples track with what Carr brings to the table. Like I said, we'd be in football purgatory for 5 years. A good team but not good enough to win a superbowl. 

Here's a question for you - do the Chiefs beat the Eagles if Cousins or Carr is playing in place of Mahomes? My answer - no. 

 

Mahomes isn't available. We need a QB. 

[bgivs21]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm aware of who Peyton Manning is lol. You don't remember people used to say he would never win a ring? People used to say "great regular season QB, can't win in the playoffs" and crap like that. It wasn't until his 6th season the Colts won a playoff game. Maybe you're not old enough.

I think Stafford is a little better than Carr but not a lot better. People used to say the same type of crap about him. Can't win big games. Great stats, not a super bowl guy.

We agree that Carr and Cousins are not as good as Mahomes. Not sure wtf your point is w/that.

My point is that the Chiefs w/out Mahomes have a good team, not great. If you put Carr on that team are they winning the superbowl or even close to making it? 

The answer is no. Similarly the Jets have a good roster, not great. There are holes to fill. Adding Carr, and his salary, for 5-7 years is not going to result in superbowls. Playoffs, probably but we're not winning a superbowl. 

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, genot said:

Mahomes isn't available. We need a QB. 

[genot]

Mahomes is a great QB. Make no mistake though. It was that offensive line that made it possible for Mahomes to breathe easy and make plays. To me Carr is the best available option. With Rodgers, it's Super Bowl or bust. And only a two year window to get there.  If you look at what Carr did statiscally in 2020, and transferred those stats to a team that could play good defense and run the football, it's a team that can win playoff games. 

[Barry McCockinner]

5 hours ago, bgivs21 said:

My point is that the Chiefs w/out Mahomes have a good team, not great. If you put Carr on that team are they winning the superbowl or even close to making it? 

The answer is no. Similarly the Jets have a good roster, not great. There are holes to fill. Adding Carr, and his salary, for 5-7 years is not going to result in superbowls. Playoffs, probably but we're not winning a superbowl. 

 

Mahomes or someone like him is not available. The Jets have a roster ready to compete outside of the QB position.

They should add the best QB they can and go for it. You don't waste these opportunities.

As for your comment stating that adding Carr won't result in Superbowls.

 

[OilfieldJet]

6 hours ago, bgivs21 said:

My point is that the Chiefs w/out Mahomes have a good team, not great. If you put Carr on that team are they winning the superbowl or even close to making it? 

The answer is no. Similarly the Jets have a good roster, not great. There are holes to fill. Adding Carr, and his salary, for 5-7 years is not going to result in superbowls. Playoffs, probably but we're not winning a superbowl. 

 

As opposed to the last 15 years?

I’ll take purgatory over hell every time.

[bgivs21]

16 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Mahomes or someone like him is not available. The Jets have a roster ready to compete outside of the QB position.

They should add the best QB they can and go for it. You don't waste these opportunities.

As for your comment stating that adding Carr won't result in Superbowls.

 

Aaron Rodgers is probably available. The MVP from last year. So yeah, someone like Mahomes will probably be available lmao

At least my opinion is backed up by the fact that in 9 years he's been to the playoffs twice. Anyone saying Carr on the team = superbowl is just basing it on hopes and dreams while completing ignoring Carrs career. 

 

[bgivs21]

28 minutes ago, OilfieldJet said:

As opposed to the last 15 years?

I’ll take purgatory over hell every time.

Except your options are not purgatory or hell. Rodgers is a legit option. 

Also talk to a Vikings fan to see how football purgatory sucks. Pretty sure no Viking fan believed they would beat the Giants this year in the playoffs. That's what we have to look forward to with Carr. I'd love to see this place melt down every year when Carr disappoints

[Barry McCockinner]

11 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Aaron Rodgers is probably available. The MVP from last year. So yeah, someone like Mahomes will probably be available lmao

At least my opinion is backed up by the fact that in 9 years he's been to the playoffs twice. Anyone saying Carr on the team = superbowl is just basing it on hopes and dreams while completing ignoring Carrs career. 

 

40 year old Rodgers is better than Carr but he's not at Mahomes level. 

I haven't seen a single person say Carr = Superbowl. I see a lot of people saying definitively that we cannot win one with him. It's something people like to say and seem to believe is fact rather than opinion. We've seen several examples of this type of mentality being proven wrong. I gave some.

All I'm saying is Carr gives this team a chance.

Rodgers winning a Superbowl with the Jets is also just hopes and dreams btw.

 

[bgivs21]

7 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

40 year old Rodgers is better than Carr but he's not at Mahomes level. 

I haven't seen a single person say Carr = Superbowl. I see a lot of people saying definitively that we cannot win one with him. It's something people like to say and seem to believe is fact rather than opinion. We've seen several examples of this type of mentality being proven wrong. I gave some.

All I'm saying is Carr gives this team a chance.

Rodgers winning a Superbowl with the Jets is also just hopes and dreams btw.

 

None of your examples made sense or fit the situation Carr will be in. Outside of maybe the Stafford ex. But he is a much better QB and went to a team of All pros. The Jets are not the Rams of 2020 talent or coaching wise. 

The difference is the opinions about Carr not winning one are backed up with verifiable proof of who Carr is as a QB in the NFL. 9 years, 2 playoff appearances. 

[JiFtheOracle]

13 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

I'm not a Football Outsiders believer, but based on these number, stay very far away from Jackson and Tannehill.  And if Rodgers gets a pass for 2002, doesn't Carr? He played the season without 2 of his top 3 weapons in Renfro and Waller and had to play for a HC who is not known as a QB whisperer.  And why isn't it logical to think that Rodgers is just getting old? Once players hit a certain age, they fall off a cliff rather than steadily decline.  Rodgers is a massive gamble.  

I appreciate this stuff to an extent but it's really just silly gibberish and this chart is ridiculous.  

Lamar Jackson on a per play basis is the most dangerous player in the NFL, to say there are 13 players more dangerous per play, is moronic.  To use some silly advance metric to say that there are 15 QB's in the NFL, more valuable, is pure an utter stupidity. 

Just on the surface lets talk about how stupid this is;  the Ravens were 8-4 w/ Lamar Jackson.  They average 26pts per game w/ Lamar and 16 pts per game w/out, the most points they scored in a single game w/out him, was 17 and went 3-4 w/out him.  He was the leading rusher on the team.  He was 7th overall in passing TD % in the league.  He is/was the Ravens entire offense.  Nobody in the NFL has that big of an impact.  We saw 1 serious w/out Mahomes on the year, in the playoffs, Henne took the team down and scored on his only drive.  lmfao.   I'm not saying Lamar is Mahomes but the Ravens are pure and utter dog sh*t w/out Lamar Jackson.

Sandwiched in between Mahomes 2 MVP trophies, are 2 other QB's.  Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers but this silly sh*t is telling you that they're actually not really valuable?  gtfo.

 

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, bgivs21 said:

None of your examples made sense or fit the situation Carr will be in. Outside of maybe the Stafford ex. But he is a much better QB and went to a team of All pros. The Jets are not the Rams of 2020 talent or coaching wise. 

The difference is the opinions about Carr not winning one are backed up with verifiable proof of who Carr is as a QB in the NFL. 9 years, 2 playoff appearances. 

There are no 2 situations exactly alike. The point is that people claiming "you can't win a ring with" <successful person x> as if it is fact have been proven wrong time and time again. It's just a silly thing to say, and here you are saying it. It's something that cannot be directly disproven because no one knows the future so people feel emboldened to state it as if it's fact. The odds are low for any team to win since it's 1/32 every year so it's a good bet that person x won't win one but it's not a fact at all.

Stafford is not that much better than Carr. He had slightly better career numbers in Detroit than Carr while throwing to Megatron for a number of those years. I believe Carr actually has a better career QB rating than what Stafford had in Detroit. Carr is the one of the two who has had MVP and OPOY votes - not Stafford. I do think Stafford is better, but only marginally. I suspect the huge gap you see is based largely on the fact that Stafford has now won a Superbowl.

If the Jets signed Carr he'd be on a team with _by far_ the best defense he's ever had. Wins and losses are a team stat. No one is saying Carr is a guy who carries a team like Mahomes and only an elite few can. I don't think Rodgers is a guy who can carry a team at this point in his career either fwiw.

[jgb]

8 hours ago, genot said:

Mahomes isn't available. We need a QB. 

Just that simple. Too many fans prefer cheap garbage to hamburger if there is no steak around.

[Barry McCockinner]

54 minutes ago, JiFields said:

I appreciate this stuff to an extent but it's really just silly gibberish and this chart is ridiculous.  

Lamar Jackson on a per play basis is the most dangerous player in the NFL, to say there are 13 players more dangerous per play, is moronic.  To use some silly advance metric to say that there are 15 QB's in the NFL, more valuable, is pure an utter stupidity. 

Just on the surface lets talk about how stupid this is;  the Ravens were 8-4 w/ Lamar Jackson.  They average 26pts per game w/ Lamar and 16 pts per game w/out, the most points they scored in a single game w/out him, was 17 and went 3-4 w/out him.  He was the leading rusher on the team.  He was 7th overall in passing TD % in the league.  He is/was the Ravens entire offense.  Nobody in the NFL has that big of an impact.  We saw 1 serious w/out Mahomes on the year, in the playoffs, Henne took the team down and scored on his only drive.  lmfao.   I'm not saying Lamar is Mahomes but the Ravens are pure and utter dog sh*t w/out Lamar Jackson.

Sandwiched in between Mahomes 2 MVP trophies, are 2 other QB's.  Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers but this silly sh*t is telling you that they're actually not really valuable?  gtfo.

 

Why do you think the metric is telling you Lamar and Rodgers aren't really valuable? When Lamar won MVP these metrics had him at the top of the league. These metrics had Rodgers 1 & 2 in 2020 & 2021 when he won MVP.

If anything it's telling us Lamar hasn't been nearly as effective in the last 3 years as he was his MVP year. They did fire Greg Roman this year.