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No Green Bay Doesn't know What they are doing!!!


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4 hours ago, Team archer said:

Actually they do. They had no leverage until Aaron said publicly he wants to play for the Jets. Greenbay FO can sit and say “well Aaron is ready to go so give us more than what you offered and we can wrap this up. If not then it looks bad on you to have Aaron waiting. ”

By definition if they were trading for him then he wanted to play for the jets.  It’s not as big of a deal. 

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

Im not like a big cap guy but when all this was getting started people said it would be better for the Packers if Aaron Rodgers gets traded after June 1.

The Packers do have leverage in that this is a wink and a handshake deal, but nothing could be finalized for months. They could just leave JD and the Jets out to dry. The Jets, having no better options, could call their bluff on June 2.

the Packers are rebuilding with Love it's not like they are under any pressure to do anything, really. The Jets meanwhile have created all this hype and the fans could literally lose our minds by June 1 

that thread will be like 8000 pages long by then 

No way the jets wait until June. 

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2 hours ago, Mogglez said:

As I said before: If the Jets back out, Rodgers will retire before June 1st, and Green Bay can kiss their cap space goodbye for the next 2 years.  Before it’s even suggested, the idea that Aaron will save GB by choosing to retire after June 1st in such a scenario is not something I would bet on, given that he’s already unhappy with how they’ve handled things to this point.

Why not show up and pout and make 60mm

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2 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Neither franchise wants this to drag.  Hope it’s done soon.

Immediately puts my mind at ease.  Nothing being said in this thread matters..  Wingos word on all things Rodgers related is gospel. 

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1 hour ago, varjet said:
  • The Packers don't want to be embarrassed by getting less than a Russell W, etc. package.
  • Woody and JD do not want to be embarrassed by paying too many draft picks, plus taking on the horrible contract.
  • This is the thing to me-if the Jets over pay in draft picks, the odds of this Rodgers experience working out go down.   JD may be better off by saying F it, we are better off with Zach and the Strev and drafting a QB high again next year.  
  • The Packers achieve their football goals by getting the Jets to take on this contract, with maybe a few extra draft picks.  they move on.  that is the smart thing to do. 

Uhhhhhh they owe him a lot of money. Uhhhhh they have to pay Love by May 1st to ensure they can keep him in 2024. They are not letting him go. Love is their future. He could tell them enough of this sheet, I'm outta here. And he surely would. I bet he forced their hand as well and said this place aint big enough for both of us -its either him or me.  Packers probably didnt think Love would be ready so they gave AR that crazy azz contract. Obviously, now they regret it. They gonna have to DEAL with JD and take what they can get. Pack can hold out for another trading partner? No way. Who else wants to pay that contract.  AR has a no trade clause. He could tell them Eff off I aint going nowhere else. Either NY Jets or I'll stay in GB which would be catastrophic to the Pack on so many levels.   They would get stuck with AR's contract and the backlash by their fanbase would be epic. They've already said they don't want AR around anymore. They are ALREADY a laughingstock in the NFL for guaranteeing that stupid contract and now they are trying to save face by blackmailing JD and the Jets into forking up top/multiple picks.  JD will not give in. Packers have no clue how shrewd JD is but they gonna find out.  

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1. I have no idea where they get their data or how they compute their odds. 
2. This will NOT make @JiF happy.

Quarterback Injury Guide

Player Historic Stats Injury Probabilities Projected Points
Player Career Injuries Injury Risk Probability of Injury In the Season  Projected Games Missed  Probability of Injury Per Game Durability  PPR Points 
Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson, QB BAL 6 |||||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 9% 0.40 0.6% 5 372.2
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes, QB KC 8 |||||||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 16% 0.90 1% 5 365.2
Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray, QB ARI 7 ||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 26% 1.20 1.8% 5 362.1
Buffalo Bills Josh Allen, QB BUF 7 ||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 26% 1.00 1.8% 3 350.0
San Francisco 49ers Trey Lance, QB SF 5 ||||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 10% 0.80 0.6% 5 346.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady, QB TB 7 ||||||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 5% 0.60 0.3% 5 343.4
Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts, QB PHI 3 ||| + Show History » LOW RISK 12% 1.10 0.7% 5 341.0
Denver Broncos Russell Wilson, QB DEN 6 |||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 12% 1.10 0.7% 5 337.3
Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert, QB LAC 5 ||||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 15% 1.40 1% 5 319.6
Los Angeles Rams Matthew Stafford, QB LAR 20 |||||||||||||||||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 12% 1.70 0.7% 4 319.5
New York Jets Aaron Rodgers, QB NYJ 12 |||||||||||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 14% 0.70 0.9% 5 317.0
Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC 5 ||||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 9% 0.50 0.6% 5 313.8
Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow, QB CIN 9 ||||||||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 65% 1.50 6% 0 312.5
Chicago Bears Justin Fields, QB CHI 8 |||||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 13% 2.80 0.8% 5 305.1
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott, QB DAL 7 ||||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 11% 1.20 0.7% 3 297.1
Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins, QB MIN 1 | + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 5% 0.20 0.3% 5 290.1
New York Giants Daniel Jones, QB NYG 8 |||||||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 61% 1.70 5.4% 5 287.2
Tennessee Titans Ryan Tannehill, QB TEN 6 |||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 13% 1.00 0.8% 5 276.8
New Orleans Saints Jameis Winston, QB NO 9 ||||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 29% 0.90 2% 5 271.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baker Mayfield, QB TB 9 ||||||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 12% 0.40 0.7% 5 271.0
Unsigned Derek Carr, QB UNS 9 ||||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 36% 1.70 2.6% 5 270.5
Detroit Lions Jared Goff, QB DET 4 |||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 45% 1.70 3.5% 5 263.1
New England Patriots Mac Jones, QB NE 3 ||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 11% 1.60 0.7% 5 260.1
Unsigned Marcus Mariota, QB UNS 12 |||||||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 40% 1.10 3% 4 258.3
Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA 11 ||||||||||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 73% 2.20 7.4% 2 250.7
Houston Texans Davis Mills, QB HOU 2 || + Show History » LOW RISK 13% 1.10 0.8% 5 236.3
Seattle Seahawks Geno Smith, QB SEA 4 |||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 19% 1.10 1.2% 4 214.0
New York Jets Zach Wilson, QB NYJ 4 |||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 17% 0.50 1.1% 4 170.3
Unsigned Matt Ryan, QB UNS 4 |||| + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 10% 0.60 0.6% 5 163.0
Unsigned Carson Wentz, QB UNS 10 |||||||||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 77% 2.10 8.3% 4 148.8
Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson, QB CLE 6 |||||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 17% 1.00 1.1% 3 125.8
Las Vegas Raiders Jimmy Garoppolo, QB LVR 9 ||||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 22% 0.50 1.5% 2 116.8
Atlanta Falcons Taylor Heinicke, QB ATL 5 ||||| + Show History » MEDIUM RISK 15% 0.60 1% 2 101.3
Seattle Seahawks Drew Lock, QB SEA 5 ||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 24% 0.40 1.6% 1 82.2
San Francisco 49ers Sam Darnold, QB SF 8 |||||||| + Show History » VERY HIGH RISK 43% 1.70 3.3% 4 31.6
New York Giants Tyrod Taylor, QB NYG 12 |||||||||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 34% 2.70 2.4% 5 30.5
Carolina Panthers Andy Dalton, QB CAR 6 |||||| + Show History » HIGH RISK 36% 1.30 2.6% 5 25.4
Miami Dolphins Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIA 11 ||||||||||| + Show History » LOW RISK 12% 0.40 0.7% 3 18.0
Green Bay Packers Jordan Love, QB GB 2 || + Show History » VERY LOW RISK 10% 1.80 0.6% 5 7.3
 
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45 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Is a broken thumb one of those recurring injuries or what

You're right. It's highly unlikely that a 39-year-old with 223 NFL starts will get injured. Impossible, even. Let's sign Kurt Benkert and hope for the best. What could go wrong?

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6 hours ago, Team archer said:

Actually they do. They had no leverage until Aaron said publicly he wants to play for the Jets. Greenbay FO can sit and say “well Aaron is ready to go so give us more than what you offered and we can wrap this up. If not then it looks bad on you to have Aaron waiting. ”

That’s how the GB looks at it. But they wanted him to say “ I will play for anyone “ or I may retire. But saying he basically only wants to play for Jets, or stay in Green Bay. Which they definitely do not want, surprisingly they admitted to that . Which has cost them any leverage. They have to pay him if he wants to come back.

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4 hours ago, bitonti said:

Kirk Cousins just got restructured. That usually means he stays where he is 

Matthew Stafford is interesting.

Fact is, I personally would rather have Stafford at half the price of Rodgers. (Rodgers has 60 mil in guarantees for 1 year, Stafford has 57 over 2).

They both looked really washed last year, from where I'm sitting. 

But The Rams have to trade Stafford this week or that 57 becomes locked in. It's possible but just don't think the Jets are really pursuing other avenues. 

Lazard, Hackett, Woody's private Jet trip, they've shown their cards.  

The Jets have little leverage and the Packers know it. Now that blockhead looking dude Brian Gutekunst is going to squeeze JD for all he's worth 

This is false, and you are amazingly bad at simple math and timelines.

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

I went on record.

  • 2023 2nd
  • 2024 conditional 4th up to 3rd (playoffs and Rodgers still on team at start of league year 2024), up to 2nd possibly with AFCCG or SB appearance and Rodgers on roster.

That's not counting impact of any players included or cash moving either way.  I have nothing to base it on, but it feels like a fair deal to me.  If it's higher than that by much, I'd be disappointed.

What's your take?

This is a damn good take!

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Everybody is talking about the deal is hung up on compensation, and yet the only guy who has nailed what is going on with Rodgers from the beginning has been Trey Wingo, and he doubled down again today and said the deal is "done."

He said it's 99% done, the 1% is GB simply pulling the trigger.

The compensation has been agreed to, there is something else going on with GB here that nobody knows!

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It’s crazy that there are still fans upset about this. We are finally relevant! You can’t win without a very good to great QB. The ones who have; have had superior coaching(we dint have that)
I get that JD is trying to build something sustainable, and this upsets that, but we have had ten awful years. We can handle a year or two if that AFTER some potentially rocking seasons. We are STILL drooling over Rex and his ground and pound with the human stoplight mark Sanchez. Get over it and enjoy the ride. If he gets hurt, we’ll sh*t happens; but at least we tried.


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4 hours ago, Mogglez said:

I’m not upping anything.  I was given a proposal weeks ago, that I posted here, and believe will be the deal, or very close to it.  That proposal was a 2nd this year, a conditional 3rd next year, that can become a 1st, based on playoff success, and Corey Davis.  Anything involving pick 13 for Rodgers, and only Rodgers is a slight overpay, IMO.

Ultimately, I think that proposal gets it done, but the Jets will end up eating more of the contract than they originally planned on eating.

Thanks for the info.  What is unclear is that I figured the Jets and Packers had a deal in place when they gave Jets permission to talk to Rodgers.   So someone must have backed out of original agreement (if there was one).

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36 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

Thanks for the info.  What is unclear is that I figured the Jets and Packers had a deal in place when they gave Jets permission to talk to Rodgers.   So someone must have backed out of original agreement (if there was one).

Maybe. Trey Wingo is saying it’s at the finish line, and I’ve heard nothing new on the compensation front.  Jason from OverTheCap basically came out earlier today with a breakdown and said “Yeah, the Packers can wait, but the longer they wait, the more leverage they will end up losing.”

…which backs up this tweet from Pelissero earlier today 

7E2438CF-F118-4243-B2D2-72C26345227F.jpeg

Basically, if the Packers try to “alter the deal”, they’re banking on Joe Douglas to cave because of the “vibes” Jets fans are feeling now, which would…certainly be a strategy.  My honest guess and hope is what I stated in my earlier post: the deal ultimately gets done soon with the Jets eating more money than anticipated.  Maybe, they change the conditional 3rd to a conditional 2nd with different parameters.

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39 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Favre hadn’t missed a start in sixteen seasons. Then he came here as a 39-year-old and—whoopsie doodle!—tore his bicep tendon and a Super Bowl favorite got to sit at home and watch Hermie the Dentist in the playoffs. Part of the problem is that neither Mangini nor Tannenbaum had the sack to tell Favre he needed to take a seat. Were Rodgers to get hurt, that bit of history is likely to repeat itself; every decision-maker associated with this franchise has so abjectly debased themselves to bring Rodgers here that he could tear every ligament in his body and say “I think I’m good to go Sunday” and Fat Idzik and Jacked Herm would both nod vigorously and say “I really think that’s the right call, Mr. Rodgers,” and then confirm they had his lunch order correct.

The other part of the problem was that benching Favre would mean starting Kellen Clemens, and there is no reason whatsoever to repeat that mistake, especially for a team whose lack of competent QB2 play singlehandedly cost them a playoff spot last year. I get that Rodgers is a tiny baby bird who must be cradled within one’s palm at all times lest his sensitive feelings be bruised, but he’s also beating the odds by suiting up at all next season, and if we go into the season with Zach and Streveler as his backups, we’re an ankle sprain away from this whole thing going down the toilet.

aww... I love baby birds.  They come to our feeders.  But so do the black bears occasionally.  Hey is all the talk over injury risk really useful?    I submit that ANY QB behind what JD's OLs have been is at grave risk.  

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47 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You root for a franchise that has fielded a string of 21 year old QBs who have paraded to IR with broken jaws, with mono, with a knee blown up by a blade of grass. I reject the idea that Rodgers is going to all of a sudden break down once he gets here. He’s been a dude who gets the ball out quickly. Hackett and Downing are going to run the ball into the ground and let Rodgers throw TDs inside the 20. There are a million concerns I have about Rodgers, but “he’s probably going to get hurt” is pretty far down on the list, and would be a concern regardless of who we signed. 

I don’t think he’s going to break down; I think it’s possible he might fall funny while getting sacked and the ensuing four games of Zach Wilson will cost us a playoff spot.

The prospect of our starting quarterback getting hurt, and of who would replace him if he does, should absolutely be a concern regardless of who we sign.

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12 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I don’t think he’s going to break down; I think it’s possible he might fall funny while getting sacked and the ensuing four games of Zach Wilson will cost us a playoff spot.

The prospect of our starting quarterback getting hurt, and of who would replace him if he does, should absolutely be a concern regardless of who we sign.

When dealing with these small windows to go for it all, a quality backup makes a world of difference. As you said, even having to finish out a game or two for an injured starter could mean the difference between playoffs and sitting at home, or if we aim higher, a home playoff game or away playoff game. I don't want Zach Wilson anywhere near the ******* field if that situation arises. 

The problem is: who's left? Mariota and Wentz? Can't possibly see them settling for a backup role behind Rodgers. Maybe someone a little more injury prone where they feel they'll see the field more. Are we willing to throw high-end backup QB money at Teddy B on a two year deal?

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4 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

When dealing with these small windows to go for it all, a quality backup makes a world of difference. As you said, even having to finish out a game or two for an injured starter could mean the difference between playoffs and sitting at home, or if we aim higher, a home playoff game or away playoff game. I don't want Zach Wilson anywhere near the ******* field if that situation arises. 

The problem is: who's left? Mariota and Wentz? Can't possibly see them settling for a backup role behind Rodgers. Maybe someone a little more injury prone where they feel they'll see the field more. Are we willing to throw high-end backup QB money at Teddy B on a two year deal?

Probably not, given his injury history—it doesn’t really solve the problem. I would need to see who’s out there. It may be something where you need to flip a sixth-rounder to somebody rather than dip into the free agent pool.

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1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Maybe. Trey Wingo is saying it’s at the finish line, and I’ve heard nothing new on the compensation front.  Jason from OverTheCap basically came out earlier today with a breakdown and said “Yeah, the Packers can wait, but the longer they wait, the more leverage they will end up losing.”

…which backs up this tweet from Pelissero earlier today 

7E2438CF-F118-4243-B2D2-72C26345227F.jpeg

Basically, if the Packers try to “alter the deal”, they’re banking on Joe Douglas to cave because of the “vibes” Jets fans are feeling now, which would…certainly be a strategy.  My honest guess and hope is what I stated in my earlier post: the deal ultimately gets done soon with the Jets eating more money than anticipated.  Maybe, they change the conditional 3rd to a conditional 2nd with different parameters.

Everyone is talking about whether the Jets or Packers have more leverage, when the real story to me is that Rodgers is actually the one who has the nuclear option.  Unless I'm missing something, Rodgers can end this all tomorrow by calling Gutekunst and saying "take the Jets best offer or I'm retiring by the end of the day", which would blow up Green Bay's cap entirely.  

To be honest, it sounded like Rodgers may have been setting that up a little today when he talked about the Packers doing the right thing to support the intentions of arguably the best player in their history.  That may have been him giving GB one last chance to honor his wishes before he turns it ugly. 

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10 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

ant to have Rogers show up to camp, give him over $50 Million Dollars, and then have him act as a distraction and literally piss off their fan base and your QB of the future in Love.

You can't make it up this is negotiation at its worse and incompetence at the highest levels..

Get your popcorn ready!!!

LET'S GO JETS!!

It's more like nearly 60 million... & when they pick up Loves's 5th yr option you can add an additional 20 plus million to that... 80 million on 2 players in 2023... I don't see it working out. 

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2 hours ago, Wit said:

It’s crazy that there are still fans upset about this. We are finally relevant! You can’t win without a very good to great QB. The ones who have; have had superior coaching(we dint have that)
I get that JD is trying to build something sustainable, and this upsets that, but we have had ten awful years. We can handle a year or two if that AFTER some potentially rocking seasons. We are STILL drooling over Rex and his ground and pound with the human stoplight mark Sanchez. Get over it and enjoy the ride. If he gets hurt, we’ll sh*t happens; but at least we tried.


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I can Truly care Less about being "relevant"... All the pundits can crap on this team ALL they want... I Just Want To WIN IT ALL... "They" can then Shove the Lombardi Trophy Up "Their" Collective Asses. 

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15 hours ago, DoubleDown said:

The Packers made a huge mistake giving Rodgers the monster extension last year.  I'm not really sure how they didn't foresee they would be moving on and starting the Jordan Love era a year later.

yep.  They created this mess and should be kissing the Jets ass for being their savior.   I'll bet JDs offer is for a 3rd round pick and a conditional 2024 depending on 2023 performance/results and Green Bay is flipping out at the bad look. 

 

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9 hours ago, T0mShane said:

You root for a franchise that has fielded a string of 21 year old QBs who have paraded to IR with broken jaws, with mono, with a knee blown up by a blade of grass. I reject the idea that Rodgers is going to all of a sudden break down once he gets here. He’s been a dude who gets the ball out quickly. Hackett and Downing are going to run the ball into the ground and let Rodgers throw TDs inside the 20. There are a million concerns I have about Rodgers, but “he’s probably going to get hurt” is pretty far down on the list, and would be a concern regardless of who we signed. 

I'm enjoying the premise that "hey this guy is about to turn 40 and that's usually when time starts catching up to guys" is some sort of aberrant concern. The list of guys that started past 40 and didn't say **** this shortly after is in the single digits. And of that I think Brady and Favre were the only 2 that were any good, and one of them was fueled by steroids and the other was fueled by using his career to sexually harass women and rip of low income Mississippi residents. 

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