Lawson, Whitehead, Davis still on the Jets… Why?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Davis might signal he’s part of a Rodgers trade..

But Whitehead when we traded for Clark?  Both Strong Safety types who are better in the box than deep.  

Lawson when Johnson, Huff and Clemons are all ready for more reps (to go along with JFM’s part time role at Edge)?

 

 

[mrcoops]

JD never makes a move until he has to.  Until he needs the cap dollars, he will hold onto these guys in the hope of trading them for something of value.

[NYJCAP2]

[Bobby816]

GMs a lot of the time do this. Don't cut guys until you need the cap space. 

[BurntDice]

11 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Davis might signal he’s part of a Rodgers trade..

But Whitehead when we traded for Clark?  Both Strong Safety types who are better in the box than deep.  

Lawson when Johnson, Huff and Clemons are all ready for more reps (to go along with JFM’s part time role at Edge)?

 

 

I think keeping Lawson makes more sense than cutting him. He’s a full year recovered from a serious injury. He has tons of potential as a pass rusher. JJ I don’t see ever being a great pass rusher, but more of a solid starter. Huff hasn’t proven to be anything more than a rotational player. Clemons is a mid round pick and is also unproven. We’re trying to make a SB push and Lawson is the only established edge on the team. 

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I think keeping Lawson makes more sense than cutting him. He’s a full year recovered from a serious injury. He has tons of potential as a pass rusher. JJ I don’t see ever being a great pass rusher, but more of a solid starter. Huff hasn’t proven to be anything more than a rotational player. Clemons is a mid round pick and is also unproven. We’re trying to make a SB push and Lawson is the only established edge on the team. 

We keep this cycle up, with burying draft picks behind high priced veterans, then (absent injuries) they'll never be proven.

JJII + Clemons can start opposite (and/or rotate with) JFM, bringing in Huff on more-obvious passing downs.

[BurntDice]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

We keep this cycle up, with burying draft picks behind high priced veterans, then (absent injuries) they'll never be proven.

Didn’t seem to be an issue with the eagles 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

12 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

GMs a lot of the time do this. Don't cut guys until you need the cap space. 

Fair feedback my internet friends.  Not exactly the thought provoking topic I thought it might be.

 

[AVM]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

We keep this cycle up, with burying draft picks behind high priced veterans, then (absent injuries) they'll never be proven.

With the elite corner play we have if ever there was a setup to give the draft picks some run it should be this one

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Now back to the regularly scheduled Aaron Rodgers posts

 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

We keep this cycle up, with burying draft picks behind high priced veterans, then (absent injuries) they'll never be proven.

JJII + Clemons can start opposite (and/or rotate with) JFM, bringing in Huff on more-obvious passing downs.

[DoubleDown]

Unless it directly benefits the team financially (Woody writing a check, cap implications), why jump the gun?  Injuries happen.

[GKnight83]

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[section314]

28 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I think keeping Lawson makes more sense than cutting him. He’s a full year recovered from a serious injury. He has tons of potential as a pass rusher. JJ I don’t see ever being a great pass rusher, but more of a solid starter. Huff hasn’t proven to be anything more than a rotational player. Clemons is a mid round pick and is also unproven. We’re trying to make a SB push and Lawson is the only established edge on the team. 

JJ reminds me of Bryan Thomas , but a better pass rusher. Like you said, Lawxson will be in his second year after massive surgery, and should be way better. Aldo, he had 8 sacks .

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, BurntDice said:

Didn’t seem to be an issue with the eagles 

The Eagles will actually let the veteran go to let the next man up get on the field for more than rotational snaps. There are exceptions when you're talking about a HOFer (e.g. Kelsey, or previously Peters, seeing how OL players don't rotate on/off the field).

Nakobe Dean is probably going to start at MLB this year. Jordan Davis was starting until he injured his ankle. Both OLmen they drafted of late are starters. They dumped Wentz to go with Hurts right after making major new $ investments in the former. 

Also in both of their recent SB seasons they started a QB on his cheap/cheaper rookie contract. Kinda helps. 

Anyway if Lawson could do more than rush the passer moderately-well, plus if he didn't have a career littered with injuries on top of that, I'd feel more motivated to keep him at $15MM. He's not an absolutely necessary cog.

[BornJetsFan1983]

45 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Davis might signal he’s part of a Rodgers trade..

But Whitehead when we traded for Clark?  Both Strong Safety types who are better in the box than deep.  

Lawson when Johnson, Huff and Clemons are all ready for more reps (to go along with JFM’s part time role at Edge)?

 

 

Lawsonwill be asked to restructure I'm sure. I hope we keep whitehead but he probably restructuring too.

[Sperm Edwards]

24 minutes ago, AVM said:

With the elite corner play we have if ever there was a setup to give the draft picks some run it should be this one

Seriously, you'd think 0 of Lawson's career-best 8 sacks were coverage-based.

Look, he's fine. But a team that has a locked-in starter on one side in JFM plus last year's 1st & 4th rounders who both saw time as rookies, plus a dedicated pass rusher who's actually worth a damn in that role, another $15MM DE is a luxury unless he's a lot better than fine. 

[Averagejetsfan1421]

Davis and Lawson will be packed to greenbay for rodgers 

[BurntDice]

11 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Eagles will actually let the veteran go to let the next man up get on the field for more than rotational snaps. There are exceptions when you're talking about a HOFer (e.g. Kelsey, or previously Peters, seeing how OL players don't rotate on/off the field).

Nakobe Dean is probably going to start at MLB this year. Jordan Davis was starting until he injured his ankle. Both OLmen they drafted of late are starters. They dumped Wentz to go with Hurts right after making major new $ investments in the former. 

Also in both of their recent SB seasons they started a QB on his cheap/cheaper rookie contract. Kinda helps. 

Anyway if Lawson could do more than rush the passer moderately-well, plus if he didn't have a career littered with injuries on top of that, I'd feel more motivated to keep him at $15MM. He's not an absolutely necessary cog.

With OL it’s different because that unit usually plays 90+% of snaps. With DL they rotate a lot more. 

With Jordan Davis there has been major concern since the draft that he will be able to stay on the field for a decent amount due to size/conditioning 

Let’s say Lawson plays 65% of snaps. JJ plays 65% on the opposite end. The rest of the 70% can be split between Huff and Clemons. This is also excluding injuries which are bound to happen. JFM and Q can play in the middle. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Lawsonwill be asked to restructure I'm sure. I hope we keep whitehead but he probably restructuring too.

Restructuring isn't a pay cut. It just pushes most of his $15MM off to next year. They still pay it. And anyway in his case it'd be an extension, seeing how this is his final contract year.

My stance is he's not worth $15MM. I think (or hope) they sense that, too, or he'd have already been restructured, like they did with:

• JFM
• Reed
• Tomlinson ($ was 75% guaranteed anyway)
• both TEs ($ was almost all guaranteed anyway)

Unless I'm reading into it, it's telling which notable-salary (i.e. very restructure-able) guys weren't restructured/extended to guarantee their 2023 roster spots & lower the '23 cap number in the process:

• CJM ($17MM, not guaranteed)
• Lawson ($15MM, not guaranteed)
• C.Davis ($10.5MM not guaranteed)
• Whitehead ($7MM, not guaranteed)
• D.Brown ($9MM, not guaranteed)
• Berrios ($5MM not guaranteed; already cut)

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

With OL it’s different because that unit usually plays 90+% of snaps. With DL they rotate a lot more. 

With Jordan Davis there has been major concern since the draft that he will be able to stay on the field for a decent amount due to size/conditioning 

Let’s say Lawson plays 65% of snaps. JJ plays 65% on the opposite end. The rest of the 70% can be split between Huff and Clemons. This is also excluding injuries which are bound to happen. JFM and Q can play in the middle. 

Davis was starting ("starting" for a run-stuffing NT is often less than half the snaps anyway) until he got a high ankle sprain.

My point isn't that Lawson's worthless - I don't think that - so much as Lawson is just not worth $15MM to this team this year. They have 3 other start-able DEs in addition to Huff (who's deservedly a situational player), so they simply do not need him on the field for 65% of the snaps. Lawson only does one thing well, and not omg-well at that.

I think the team's far better off putting his $15MM to use on other players.

[BurntDice]

20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Davis was starting ("starting" for a run-stuffing NT is often less than half the snaps anyway) until he got a high ankle sprain.

My point isn't that Lawson's worthless - I don't think that - so much as Lawson is just not worth $15MM to this team this year. They have 3 other start-able DEs in addition to Huff (who's deservedly a situational player), so they simply do not need him on the field for 65% of the snaps. Lawson only does one thing well, and not omg-well at that.

I think the team's far better off putting his $15MM to use on other players.

I get where you are coming from I just disagree, all good. We haven’t seen a fully healthy Lawson yet and I just think he can be the elite edge rusher we’ve been begging for. With the bengals he had the most pressures in the league the year prior to coming here. Sacks are fluky sometimes and aren’t the end all be all stat to judge pass rushers by. Pressures and hurries are a much better gauge for present and future success. 
 

Sacks are a very team oriented stat. There can be pressure off the edge which makes the qb move up in the pocket which makes it much easier for the dts to get their hands on him. Same the other way with pressure up the middle and the qb moves outside. 
 

With JJ I just don’t see him being an elite pass rusher. Like someone mentioned earlier I think he’ll be a Bryan Thomas tyke who is great against the run and alright with creating pressure. With Clemons I have no idea what he’ll be, I’m guessing similar to JJ, but not as good. Huff is a pass rushing specialist who is weak against the run. 
 

 

[BornJetsFan1983]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Restructuring isn't a pay cut. It just pushes most of his $15MM off to next year. They still pay it. And anyway in his case it'd be an extension, seeing how this is his final contract year.

My stance is he's not worth $15MM. I think (or hope) they sense that, too, or he'd have already been restructured, like they did with:

• JFM
• Reed
• Tomlinson ($ was 75% guaranteed anyway)
• both TEs ($ was almost all guaranteed anyway)

Unless I'm reading into it, it's telling which notable-salary (i.e. very restructure-able) guys weren't restructured/extended to guarantee their 2023 roster spots & lower the '23 cap number in the process:

• CJM ($17MM, not guaranteed)
• Lawson ($15MM, not guaranteed)
• C.Davis ($10.5MM not guaranteed)
• Whitehead ($7MM, not guaranteed)
• D.Brown ($9MM, not guaranteed)
• Berrios ($5MM not guaranteed; already cut)

? Agreed. 

I think he is def worth 15...relative to the market and I really want to see how he performs this year. Should be the year he gets back to former glory. But time will tell.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

35 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Davis was starting ("starting" for a run-stuffing NT is often less than half the snaps anyway) until he got a high ankle sprain.

My point isn't that Lawson's worthless - I don't think that - so much as Lawson is just not worth $15MM to this team this year. They have 3 other start-able DEs in addition to Huff (who's deservedly a situational player), so they simply do not need him on the field for 65% of the snaps. Lawson only does one thing well, and not omg-well at that.

I think the team's far better off putting his $15MM to use on other players.

Timing aside, this topic could transition to what do the Jets do with the corresponding  $32M in 2023 cap savings when you combine Lawson/Davis/Whitehead.  Roughly $26M after earmarking $6M for the draft class.  (Separately, it’s my understanding that the contract restructurings to date allow us to fit in Rodgers/Lazard).

We likely have free agency + 2 premium draft picks to fill the following— assuming money is not needed for Quinnen’s extension and the Jets do not restructure Mosley.  Rounds 4-6 … can be used to round out our depth.  
———————————————

1. Starting Center

2. 4th Offensive Tackle (who can at the very least start next year)

3. Herbig type reserve IOL

4. Starting Defensive Tackle

5. Starting Free Safety

6. Rotational Linebacker (Kwon’s role or 2024 replacement for Mosley)

7. #2 QB

8. Veteran Punter

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

45 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Restructuring isn't a pay cut. It just pushes most of his $15MM off to next year. They still pay it. And anyway in his case it'd be an extension, seeing how this is his final contract year.

My stance is he's not worth $15MM. I think (or hope) they sense that, too, or he'd have already been restructured, like they did with:

• JFM
• Reed
• Tomlinson ($ was 75% guaranteed anyway)
• both TEs ($ was almost all guaranteed anyway)

Unless I'm reading into it, it's telling which notable-salary (i.e. very restructure-able) guys weren't restructured/extended to guarantee their 2023 roster spots & lower the '23 cap number in the process:

• CJM ($17MM, not guaranteed)
• Lawson ($15MM, not guaranteed)
• C.Davis ($10.5MM not guaranteed)
• Whitehead ($7MM, not guaranteed)
• D.Brown ($9MM, not guaranteed)
• Berrios ($5MM not guaranteed; already cut)

I would expect Brown back.  Only $5.2M in cap savings if released since his signing bonus would fully accelerate.

[Sperm Edwards]

36 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I would expect Brown back.  Only $5.2M in cap savings if released since his signing bonus would fully accelerate.

They save $9MM by cutting him because they won't be paying his $9MM. The rest is a sunk cost.

[Embrace the Suck]

2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Davis might signal he’s part of a Rodgers trade..

But Whitehead when we traded for Clark?  Both Strong Safety types who are better in the box than deep.  

Lawson when Johnson, Huff and Clemons are all ready for more reps (to go along with JFM’s part time role at Edge)?

 

 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

55 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

They save $9MM by cutting him because they won't be paying his $9MM. The rest is a sunk cost.

Correct, just clarifying for others that this does not represent this year's cap savings if he were to be released where for others on your list the savings closely matches.

[JETS SB]

Lawson stays on a restructured contract.  Whitehead is gone. But at this point, no need to cut anyone. When you see one of them cut or restructured, you know they are about to make a move. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Correct, just clarifying for others that this does not represent this year's cap savings if he were to be released where for others on your list the savings closely matches.

It kinda does, though, indirectly.

The next guy they sign to replace him gets backloaded by that amount. Ends up the same in the end.

In fairness I used to look at it that way, too, but some time ago realized it's not the best way of looking at it.

It's more correct to just look at payments avoided aggregately (and therefore cap $ saved aggregately) than specifically in one year. It's not like each year is a separate water pitcher that can be filled only to a certain amount & that's that. You can make the next cup of water spill over into the following year's pitcher. It makes no difference if cup #1 or cup #2 is the one that overspills into next year's pitcher; water is water. 

[AFJF]

4 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Davis might signal he’s part of a Rodgers trade..

But Whitehead when we traded for Clark?  Both Strong Safety types who are better in the box than deep.  

Lawson when Johnson, Huff and Clemons are all ready for more reps (to go along with JFM’s part time role at Edge)?

 

 

Being on the roster today doesn't mean they'll be on the roster tomorrow.

 

[CanadaSteve]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Eagles will actually let the veteran go to let the next man up get on the field for more than rotational snaps. There are exceptions when you're talking about a HOFer (e.g. Kelsey, or previously Peters, seeing how OL players don't rotate on/off the field).

Nakobe Dean is probably going to start at MLB this year. Jordan Davis was starting until he injured his ankle. Both OLmen they drafted of late are starters. They dumped Wentz to go with Hurts right after making major new $ investments in the former. 

Also in both of their recent SB seasons they started a QB on his cheap/cheaper rookie contract. Kinda helps. 

Anyway if Lawson could do more than rush the passer moderately-well, plus if he didn't have a career littered with injuries on top of that, I'd feel more motivated to keep him at $15MM. He's not an absolutely necessary cog.

I think, if given enough time, JD will fully embrace this model.  To be fair, he didn't have much to work with when he got here!

[Sperm Edwards]

18 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

I think, if given enough time, JD will fully embrace this model.  To be fair, he didn't have much to work with when he got here!

I get signing Lawson when there isn't an edge rusher on the roster and the team's converting from a 4-man front to a 3-man, and the end/edge rushers were Henry Anderson, Jordan Jenkins, and Terrell Basham. Hell yes you sign a credible edge rusher in FA.

I don't get keeping him through a non-guaranteed season when there are 4 other ends/edge rushers, when they further have one of the better penetrating (hey now) DTs in the game who's also very soon due top-20 QB money, in a season the team is trading (whatever it ends up being) draft picks for a $55MM/year QB.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It kinda does, though, indirectly.

The next guy they sign to replace him gets backloaded by that amount. Ends up the same in the end.

In fairness I used to look at it that way, too, but some time ago realized it's not the best way of looking at it.

It's more correct to just look at payments avoided aggregately (and therefore cap $ saved aggregately) than specifically in one year. It's not like each year is a separate water pitcher that can be filled only to a certain amount & that's that. You can make the next cup of water spill over into the following year's pitcher. It makes no difference if cup #1 or cup #2 is the one that overspills into next year's pitcher; water is water. 

Agreed and I appreciate your responses.  Always well thought out and insightful.

I guess the nuance I would add is that the signing bonus component is upfront cash (which is why players love them) that is supposed to be a payment for the number of years a team expects to keep a player.  In the case of Brown, 2 years even though the Jets had some dummy years added in for cap purposes.

Yes, it’s a cost that has been paid but it’s poor long term ‘investment/cash management’ to not strongly consider the length of investment just because an upfront amount has already been paid.  Furthermore because there is a real replacement cost.

So for simplicity, if a starting quality OT is paid on average a total of $10M per year and for a 2 year contract would get half in a signing bonus, the year 1 cash payment is $15M ($5M salary + $10M at signing).

If this player is cut after year 1, and replaced at the same $10M total cost, the total investment was $25M rather than the 2 year going rate.

So the length of time you keep a player is an important consideration regardless of the cost that has already been paid because that cost (signing bonus component)) considers the length of time you expect to keep the asset.

It does makes sense to ‘move on’ when you need an upgrade, the player has been demoted, or the market rates for the same starting position has gone down.

In the case of my Brown example above, if he’s no longer a projected starter, why pay him a large salary when you can get a replacement for much cheaper.  But if everything is equal, I don’t like the idea of cutting him to save some 2023 salary if the total cost over the 2 years is higher than the $20M starting point.

[Fantasy Island]

JD is killing it in FA.

only teams worse are

The Rams

and 

The Packers