Assessing Relative Risk in AR Trade

[addage]

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.

But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.

 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  

I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

 

[Dunnie]

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.
But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.
 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  
I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.
Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

 

Totally agree ... The Jets have the leverage ... Rogers has one or two years left on a MONSTER Salary . The Jets would love him for that duration ... But they do not NEED him when you analyze the wider view of the team's health moving into the future.

He will be awesome here for two year.... Great solution to see if Zach can develop during that time.

But he is NOT the future.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[WisconsinJetsFan]

I am a trained negotiator 

Jets BATNA: Signing Carson Wentz to compete with Zach, trading up for a QB, getting involved with Lamar Jackson. More than likely Carson Wentz is the viable outcome 

Jets target point: Acquire Rodgers for a 3rd this year and conditional 2 next year 

Jets reservation point: Trading this years 1 or a future unprotected 1 

Packers BATNA: hang onto Rodgers until Sept 1st and hope another suitor emerges 

Packers target point: I think they want a first round pick 

Reservation point: a 2023 draft pick 

If I am the Jets I am holding out until the Packers come to their senses. Right now they are bidding against themselves and I don’t buy that there is any possibility of Rodgers suiting up for GB ever again. 

 

 

[docdhc]

What’s a batna?

[k-met57]

1 hour ago, WisconsinJetsFan said:

I am a trained negotiator 

Jets BATNA: Signing Carson Wentz to compete with Zach, trading up for a QB, getting involved with Lamar Jackson. More than likely Carson Wentz is the viable outcome 

Jets target point: Acquire Rodgers for a 3rd this year and conditional 2 next year 

Jets reservation point: Trading this years 1 or a future unprotected 1 

Packers BATNA: hang onto Rodgers until Sept 1st and hope another suitor emerges 

Packers target point: I think they want a first round pick 

Reservation point: a 2023 draft pick 

If I am the Jets I am holding out until the Packers come to their senses. Right now they are bidding against themselves and I don’t buy that there is any possibility of Rodgers suiting up for GB ever again. 

 

 

the jets have to know where Aaron is on this. if Rodgers is onboard with the jets playing hardball, then the packers finding another suitor is not a thing. no team in the NFL will trade for a player who doesn't want to be there.

[32EBoozer]

7 hours ago, addage said:

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.

But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.

 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  

I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

YOU FORGOT TO VOTE!

[talonmm]

1 hour ago, docdhc said:

What’s a batna?

I'm not exactly sure either, but there seems to be a lot of "banta" on this forum.

[talonmm]

The Jets have the upper hand here against Green Bay until, the Packers realize they are probably not winning a super bowl anytime soon, and decide to allow NFC teams to discuss trading for Rodgers.  That would double the number of teams that could possibly want to do a trade.

 

[Integrity28]

8 hours ago, addage said:

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.

But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.

 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  

I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

 

How is this a risk assessment? This is just your opinion on the latest news.

[static14]

[Doggin94it]

2 hours ago, docdhc said:

What’s a batna?

Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement - basically, it's what we ask our clients to consider when negotiate a settlement or contract: what do your options and your situations look like if you walk away with no agreement at all?

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, docdhc said:

What’s a batna?

Whats a target point?

whats a reservation point?

this dude is from mars

[Jethead]

who cares. Rodgers = playoffs and fun season for first time in years.
 

the rest is picking pepper out of fly sh*t!

 

[Doggin94it]

1 minute ago, HighPitch said:

Whats a target point? Where you're aiming to land at the end of negotiations

whats a reservation point? "if it gets this high, we walk away" 

this dude is from mars

Just be glad he didn't mention ZOPA. 

He's not from mars, he just actually negotiates for a living. 

[HighPitch]

1 minute ago, Doggin94it said:

Just be glad he didn't mention ZOPA. 

He's not from mars, he just actually negotiates for a living. 

Sounds like psychobabble to me but thanks for clearing that up. Not sure why a guy would use terms that are very specific to one profession that most will not understand but hey cool

[32EBoozer]

9 hours ago, addage said:

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.

But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.

 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  

I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

 

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

Agreed. You’ll enjoy this video if you really want to see how both GB & Jets are affected by a Rodgers trade or no trade
https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

[WisconsinJetsFan]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Sounds like psychobabble to me but thanks for clearing that up. Not sure why a guy would use terms that are very specific to one profession that most will not understand but hey cool

It’s simple negotiation tactics that everyone should learn. 

My guess is by now the two teams are within a bargaining zone and this gets done in the next week or so. 

The idea that GB has leverage over the Jets is laughable. They really don’t have a BATNA unless you believe they could somehow fix their relationship with Rodgers. GB wants Rodgers out of the organization ASAP before he airs more dirty laundry and further sullies their reputation. 

 

 

 

 

[HighPitch]

20 minutes ago, WisconsinJetsFan said:

It’s simple negotiation tactics that everyone should learn. 

My guess is by now the two teams are within a bargaining zone and this gets done in the next week or so. 

The idea that GB has leverage over the Jets is laughable. They really don’t have a BATNA unless you believe they could somehow fix their relationship with Rodgers. GB wants Rodgers out of the organization ASAP before he airs more dirty laundry and further sullies their reputation. 

 

 

 

 

Whats fubar?

whos highpitch?

[addage]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Whats fubar?

whos highpitch?

FUBAR   F-ed Up Beyond All Recognition   Hold over from WWII

 

[HighPitch]

Dilligaf?

[rangerous]

15 hours ago, addage said:

For our segment of Jets World, failing to execute the AR trade is a disaster!  Whether you favor bringing in AR or not, it’s just another case of Jets incompetence.

But in the greater world, the risk is all on the Packers if this trade falls through . The Jets are a mediocre team that has a pretty good base and no QB.  So if the Jets walk away, it’s just another year of mediocrity. Horrible for us, but ho hum for the NFL at large.  But for the Packers, it’s an unmitigated disaster!  They want to move on to Love. Are they going to have Rogers sitting on the bench.  And CAP issues—please.

 I am not an admirer of AR.  His ego is destructive.  I do think that he could bring a SB to the Jets but his retirement will hurt just as it has GB.  

I’m pretty sure JD and Saleh understand this.  They live in the logic of the NFL.  I am far less sure about Woody.  He has come across as petulant in this process.  He may not stand up to the Packers bluff.

Giving away a first would be a fubar decision.  Better to walk away than do that.

 

Obviously some truth in this. But I also think that the jets can be decent without Rodgers. I don’t know who the qb will be. There is a chance Zach is the guy and given the new coaching staff he might turn his game around. And there are still some other QBs out there that can play given a decent team. And it’s also possible to get a guy in the draft like the niners did with purdy.  Good things do happen.

[TuscanyTile2]

7 hours ago, talonmm said:

I'm not exactly sure either, but there seems to be a lot of "banta" on this forum.

 

[ASH1962]

BATNA? Stupid me, should have known that ?

[HighPitch]

The OP failed to addresss the ROYA. 
Therefore his analysis is flawed

[Hex]

3 hours ago, addage said:

FUBAR   F-ed Up Beyond All Recognition   Hold over from WWII

 

Wait, that's what that means? Haha! In the programming world Foo and Bar are used in examples a lot. Now I understand where that came from.

[Hex]

6 hours ago, WisconsinJetsFan said:

The idea that GB has leverage over the Jets is laughable. They really don’t have a BATNA unless you believe they could somehow fix their relationship with Rodgers. GB wants Rodgers out of the organization ASAP before he airs more dirty laundry and further sullies their reputation. 

 

The idea that the Jets have much leverage either is also laughable. That's why it's taking so long. If the BATNA for the Jets is signing Carson Wentz, then they also don't have much of an alternative than getting Rodgers. That said, you're right and they do have that best alternative as opposed to the Packers who have keeping a disgruntled QB who would destroy the cap as their best alternative here. 

Green Bay wants to squeeze as much as they can out of the Jets, but JD knows this and isn't going to give in. It's just going to be a game of who blinks first.