Theory as to why Green Bay is playing hard ball

[Viermoo]

It’s rumored that GB is insistent on this years 1st round pick from the Jets as a part of the deal. My theory is that they don’t believe in Jordan Love and want to combine the Jets #13, their #15 and next years 1st round pick to move up into the top three picks this year.

 

 

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[TheNuuFaaolaExperience]

[bicketybam]

It’s rumored that GB is insistent on this years 1st round pick from the Jets as a part of the deal. My theory is that they don’t believe in Jordan Love and want to combine the Jets #13, their #15 and next years 1st round pick to move up into the top three picks this year.
 
 
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Which QB in this draft is worth 3 first round draft picks??

[jbt]

Joe D just has to hold firm until the draft then GB will take what we give them

[Biggs]

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

[bgivs21]

20 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

Wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

[Biggs]

21 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

First sentencein the video he will be traded by March 13th.  Wrong.  They have moved on and will trade him.  They will maximize his value as an assett. The have to trade him which lowers his value.  Nothing I said isn't true.  

His value is lower to Green Bay because of the contract.  The idea that they won't maximize his value and the Jets don't have pressure to get a deal done ASAP is insane.

There's a difference between leverage and value.  Contracts are a factor in both value and leverage.  Leverage comes from need and demand.  In this case there isn't a lot of demand for Rodgers from competitors.  There is screaming need from the NY Jets.  

The idea that he's worth 2 ones is stupid.  He's worth maybe a 2 to the NY Jets and a conditional pick.  A 2 would be high based on his contract and the likelyhood he is one or 2 and done and we inherit a bad contract that needs renegotiation.  There are future drafts and there are players that can be traded.  The Packers don't need to deal before the draft but it gives them more flexability to do that. 

[sciond]

31 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

exactly I have been telling people here this for weeks...

[bgivs21]

17 minutes ago, Biggs said:

First sentencein the video he will be traded by March 13th.  Wrong.  They have moved on and will trade him.  They will maximize his value as an assett. The have to trade him which lowers his value.  Nothing I said isn't true.  

His value is lower to Green Bay because of the contract.  The idea that they won't maximize his value and the Jets don't have pressure to get a deal done ASAP is insane.

There's a difference between leverage and value.  Contracts are a factor in both value and leverage.  Leverage comes from need and demand.  In this case there isn't a lot of demand for Rodgers from competitors.  There is screaming need from the NY Jets.  

The idea that he's worth 2 ones is stupid.  He's worth maybe a 2 to the NY Jets and a conditional pick.  A 2 would be high based on his contract and the likelyhood he is one or 2 and done and we inherit a bad contract that needs renegotiation.  There are future drafts and there are players that can be traded.  The Packers don't need to deal before the draft but it gives them more flexability to do that. 

That's a guess from Jason based off of facts and he is entitled to one. 

I think you fail to understand the fact that there is also a screaming need from the Packers to off load him this year. If you watched the whole video it's clearly outlined. 

[sciond]

15 minutes ago, Biggs said:

First sentencein the video he will be traded by March 13th.  Wrong.  They have moved on and will trade him.  They will maximize his value as an assett. The have to trade him which lowers his value.  Nothing I said isn't true.  

His value is lower to Green Bay because of the contract.  The idea that they won't maximize his value and the Jets don't have pressure to get a deal done ASAP is insane.

There's a difference between leverage and value.  Contracts are a factor in both value and leverage.  Leverage comes from need and demand.  In this case there isn't a lot of demand for Rodgers from competitors.  There is screaming need from the NY Jets.  

The idea that he's worth 2 ones is stupid.  He's worth maybe a 2 to the NY Jets and a conditional pick.  A 2 would be high based on his contract and the likelyhood he is one or 2 and done and we inherit a bad contract that needs renegotiation.  There are future drafts and there are players that can be traded.  The Packers don't need to deal before the draft but it gives them more flexability to do that. 

They should give the Jets a Rd. 1 pick for bailing them out....

So the Jets should give a late day 2 pick I have been saying a Rd. 5 pick all along

They need this trade even more than the Jets.

I have been saying this forever; the salary cap hell you are getting in this trade makes it a terrible idea and will set this team back for years.

It is hard to believe that JD would make such a stupid deal. It smells of Woody the Jonson.....

Then everyone will blame JD

it is a SOJ move getting him

[Biggs]

2 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

That's a guess from Jason based off of facts and he is entitled to one. 

I think you fail to understand the fact that there is also a screaming need from the Packers to off load him this year. If you watched the whole video it's clearly outlined. 

I understand it.  That's why his value in trade is low.  The Jets have a screaming need to get this done.  This is a one year attempt to win a SB for the Jets.  

The leak that the Packers want 2 ones is just as likely a leak from the Jets to make it look like Woody and Douglas arent dofuses when they get a deal for a 2 or a 3 and a conditional pick next year.  Just read Footballl Guy on our own board.  He basically said Douglas is brilliant if we get him for less than 2 ones.  Insane suck up based on crazy.  

[Dunnie]

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.
The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  
This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  
Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 
The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  
The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

.. the Pack do not want that salary on the books in any way shape or form. This will impact their draft and impact their free agency. And it could escalate into 2024 ramifications.

They are under immense pressure to unload him.



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[Bobby816]

Packers might be making us wait and it is actually nothing against us. They just want to get back at AR for making them not know year to year I’ve rage last few years.

 

They will trade him to us. Just on their time. Not his or ours

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, sciond said:

They should give the Jets a Rd. 1 pick for bailing them out....

So the Jets should give a late day 2 pick I have been saying a Rd. 5 pick all along

They need this trade even more than the Jets.

I have been saying this forever; the salary cap hell you are getting in this trade makes it a terrible idea and will set this team back for years.

It is hard to believe that JD would make such a stupid deal. It smells of Woody the Jonson.....

Then everyone will blame JD

it is a SOJ move getting him

No they shouldn't give us a 1.  It's not crazy that an even exchange of draft or player value trade goes each way plus we take the contract and Rodgers.  The deal the Rams made with Detroit.  Detroit got 2 first round picks plus Goff for Stafford.  Detroit also inherited 106.6 million of Goff's contract.

Money was a huge part of that deal.  Without Detroit taking the money they don't get the picks.  

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

.. the Pack do not want that salary on the books in any way shape or form. This will impact their draft and impact their free agency. And it could escalate into 2024 ramifications.

They are under immense pressure to unload him.



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It doesn't impact them this year.  It's the out years.  The cap hit for Rodgers this year a little over 15 million.  It's next year.

[PFSIKH]

30 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Wrong. 

https://overthecap.com/explaining-the-salary-cap-implications-of-trading-aaron-rodgers

Wrong.  

Both teams are under pressure. 

Biggs is right in that GB does not have to trade him right now and of course maximize his value. 

He has an option waiting to be picked up.  It can be picked up NLT Week 1.  If OTC is right, it makes more sense for the Packers to trade him after June 1st.  The dead cap and savings are drastically different (e.g. 23M more in cap space) than pre-June 1st.  Their real pressure is next year because there is a huge option to pick-up by February

Of course, the Jets want to keep their 1st.  Lets be honest though, it is not a Top 5 or even 10 pick.  Yes, you can get a good player, but will that player make a bigger difference than Rodgers?  No. 

The Jets pressure is they are losing time.  Is it important now?  No.   I do not think there is an NFL rule to say Wilson, Lazzard and Rodgers cannot go to SoCal and run routes.  However, their best chip loses value.  If the Jets play hardball and keep their pick, if the trade happens, their first next year will be in the 20s.  Then you are pushing picks into the 2025 draft when there is no gurantee Rodgers will play.

 

 

[Sammybighead]

Here's another theory.

Listen to the people saying that GB is asking for 1sts. They're all ignorant jackasses who hate the jets, love gb, or just love poking fun at the jets. None of these people had a ounce of factual info to share throughout this drama.

Now listen to the people who don't have an agenda and actual connections/factual info (aka Wingo). He says this is 99% done, it should be consummated next week, and would be shocked if it involved a 1st.

Finally, use your own brain and logic. Do you believe a billionaire woody johnson would waste an iota of his time flying out to see Rodgers across the country if he wasn't sure this trade was realistic as far as comp? Do you believe that GB would let any team touch Rodgers with a 100 mile pole without first agreeing to a trade in principal that both sides are comfortable with? 

Choose carefully what you believe and apply some basic logic.

[ASH1962]

I say F GB, don't even make this trade. We've sucked forever anyway, one or 2 more years wont make any difference. We will get the #1 or 2 pick next year and draft another young QB from what we hear is a great QB class and be ready to roll with a loaded roster, and we will be able to pay our guys on expiring rookie contracts as well.

[bgivs21]

11 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

Wrong.  

Both teams are under pressure. 

Biggs is right in that GB does not have to trade him right now and of course maximize his value. 

He has an option waiting to be picked up.  It can be picked up NLT Week 1.  If OTC is right, it makes more sense for the Packers to trade him after June 1st.  The dead cap and savings are drastically different (e.g. 23M more in cap space) than pre-June 1st.  Their real pressure is next year because there is a huge option to pick-up by February

Of course, the Jets want to keep their 1st.  Lets be honest though, it is not a Top 5 or even 10 pick.  Yes, you can get a good player, but will that player make a bigger difference than Rodgers?  No. 

The Jets pressure is they are losing time.  Is it important now?  No.   I do not think there is an NFL rule to say Wilson, Lazzard and Rodgers cannot go to SoCal and run routes.  However, their best chip loses value.  If the Jets play hardball and keep their pick, if the trade happens, their first next year will be in the 20s.  Then you are pushing picks into the 2025 draft when there is no gurantee Rodgers will play.

 

 

[Biggs]

5 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

Here's another theory.

Listen to the people saying that GB is asking for 1sts. They're all ignorant jackasses who hate the jets, love gb, or just love poking fun at the jets. None of these people had a ounce of factual info to share throughout this drama.

Now listen to the people who don't have an agenda and actual connections/factual info (aka Wingo). He says this is 99% done, it should be consummated next week, and would be shocked if it involved a 1st.

Finally, use your own brain and logic. Do you believe a billionaire woody johnson would waste an iota of his time flying out to see Rodgers across the country if he wasn't sure this trade was realistic as far as comp? Do you believe that GB would let any team touch Rodgers with a 100 mile pole without first agreeing to a trade in principal that both sides are comfortable with? 

Choose carefully what you believe and apply some basic logic.

Fans are in competition.  Media is highly competitive.  The Packers and the Jets are partners in a business called NFL football.  They aren't in the business of embarrasing their partners.  

[FactsOnly]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

 

the packers are not paying him 60 million to sit on the bench behind a young QB who the fans will be on his neck every incomplete pass while they have to pick up his 5th year option ??

[JetsRay]

Not only do the Jets have all the leverage, JD and the Jets should go on offense, and as each week goes by the 2023 compensation lessens.

If they don't take the deal on the table today, and let's say it's a 2023 2nd rounder and a conditional 4th next year.

Next week it becomes a 2023 3rd rounder, and a conditional forth, and so on...

Disclaimer, I trust Wingo, I'm not sure compensation is the issue.

[PFSIKH]

15 minutes ago, JetsRay said:

Not only do the Jets have all the leverage, JD and the Jets should go on offense, and as each week goes by the 2023 compensation lessens.

If they don't take the deal on the table today, and let's say it's a 2023 2nd rounder and a conditional 4th next year.

Next week it becomes a 2023 3rd rounder, and a conditional forth, and so on...

Disclaimer, I trust Wingo, I'm not sure compensation is the issue.

All the leverage?  The Jets have a solid team everywhere, but the QB.  The Packers leverage is the Jets are looking at trotting out Zach Wilson, an as yet to be named drafted rookie QB in an admittedly poor QB draft class or the likes of Wentz, Bridgewater or Matt Ryan.

 

All the leverage?

[greenwichjetfan]

2 hours ago, Biggs said:

 They are not under any pressure to move him.  

I disagree. Given the deadlines for Love's fifth year option on 5/1, Rodgers ability to retire and cripple GB for the next two years by 5/31, and GB's inflexibility with FAs due to Rodgers being on the books are all reasons that I think GB has a lot of pressure to move relatively soon. And if they want draft picks this year, that pressure ramps up. 

Please let me know what I'm missing because I don't see why so many people keep saying what you're saying.

[PFSIKH]

54 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

That is true.  The Packers do want draft picks.  And as I said, the pressure is far greater on the Packers come summer and the closer it gets to the season.  The suspense to pick-up the bonus is then.

What that guy did not elaborate on is the pressure for the Jets.  What do they lose from holding onto that 1st?  As I said, now is fine and manageable.  OTAs?  Not killing, but not without pain.  Training Camp?  With Lazzard and Hacket, it is not as painful as it could be, but the Rodgers and the Jets are losing snaps together.  What else? The Jets are held prisoner to a degree.  If their intent is to get Rodgers, they need to have cap space.  Is JD going to call the Packers bluff and sign Ryan?  Good luck with that.

[Biggs]

7 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I disagree. Given the deadlines for Love's fifth year option on 5/1, Rodgers ability to retire and cripple GB for the next two years by 5/31, and GB's inflexibility with FAs due to Rodgers being on the books are all reasons that I think GB has a lot of pressure to move relatively soon. And if they want draft picks this year, that pressure ramps up. 

Please let me know what I'm missing because I don't see why so many people keep saying what you're saying.

They will pick up Love's option either way.  I don't think that's an issue.  The cap hit this year isn't bad for Green Bay.  The Cap is going to go up by over 40 million roughly 20 million in 24 and 25.  I think it's a terrible hit for them and for us but it's not as crippling as you're making it out.  They can extend Love and draft players.  They are likely in a 3 year rebuild and will be cutting salary of older players.  We will be doing the same thing in 2024 and 2025 if we get him although I'm sure we will restructure and push it out even further. 

[sciond]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

No they shouldn't give us a 1.  It's not crazy that an even exchange of draft or player value trade goes each way plus we take the contract and Rodgers.  The deal the Rams made with Detroit.  Detroit got 2 first round picks plus Goff for Stafford.  Detroit also inherited 106.6 million of Goff's contract.

Money was a huge part of that deal.  Without Detroit taking the money they don't get the picks.  

You position would make sense of AR was 6 years younger or so...

However AR is almost 40 and you can expect  a decline, as to how much who knows

Additionally zero other suitors

worst contract in the NFL possibly

JD should just let AR stay in GB then what are they gonna do?

They need the Jets to bail their asses out...period

[peekskill68]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

I understand it.  That's why his value in trade is low.  The Jets have a screaming need to get this done.  This is a one year attempt to win a SB for the Jets.  

The leak that the Packers want 2 ones is just as likely a leak from the Jets to make it look like Woody and Douglas arent dofuses when they get a deal for a 2 or a 3 and a conditional pick next year.  Just read Footballl Guy on our own board.  He basically said Douglas is brilliant if we get him for less than 2 ones.  Insane suck up based on crazy.  

I think your points on some of this are valid.  It's how WE tend to see things as Jets fans.  But one point, not raised, which goes even beyond the money is the public relations image of GB.  The longer this drags out the more this starts getting framed as a hostage situation.  And there's no doubt a smart cookie like Rodgers will apply even more pressure in that direction.  I think you are spot on - GB saw what went down with Stafford and Wilson and want a better deal.  But the truth is they aren't going to get one because of a) Rodgers' age and b) that contract they agreed to.  The longer this thing goes on, the worse their leverage becomes...

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, Sammybighead said:

 

Listen to the people saying that GB is asking for 1sts. They're all ignorant jackasses who hate the jets, love gb, or just love poking fun at the jets. None of these people had a ounce of factual info to share throughout this drama.

Yes all the people who think the Packers have leverage hate the Jets 

The whole "shoot the messenger" theory 

Good luck with that 

Meanwhile this deal is still not done. 

Or maybe it is done but the media hates the Jets so much they are not reporting it 

Yeah that's the ticket. The jets actually won the super bowl last month but it was a conspiracy by the media to cover it up 

 

 

And people call me crazy 

 

 

[JetsRay]

29 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

All the leverage?  The Jets have a solid team everywhere, but the QB.  The Packers leverage is the Jets are looking at trotting out Zach Wilson, an as yet to be named drafted rookie QB in an admittedly poor QB draft class or the likes of Wentz, Bridgewater or Matt Ryan.

 

All the leverage?

All the leverage...

As it has been noted in this thread with the breakdown of the cap numbers, if the Jets back out and Packers don't settle, it will destroy them cap wise.

- There are no other takers for Rodgers, no other teams willing to pony up both the $ and the draft comp
- The Jets can simply turn the page and go after a player like Stafford, or get a lesser veteran to compete with Wilson and stay the course. (I realize this is not what the fan base might want, but the Jets are not going to mortgage the future for Rodgers who may only play for 2 years)

Jets should remain firm on the offer they made, and force GB to blink, period. 

Also, they should go on offense and give them a deadline before reducing the draft compensation.

[greenwichjetfan]

10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

They will pick up Love's option either way.  I don't think that's an issue.  The cap hit this year isn't bad for Green Bay.  The Cap is going to go up by over 40 million roughly 20 million in 24 and 25.  I think it's a terrible hit for them and for us but it's not as crippling as you're making it out.  They can extend Love and draft players.  They are likely in a 3 year rebuild and will be cutting salary of older players.  We will be doing the same thing in 2024 and 2025 if we get him although I'm sure we will restructure and push it out even further. 

Taking on Love's option would cost an additional 20.27m this year. If they take it, Rodgers could decide he wants to play in GB just to mess with GB. If the Packers do threaten to trade him after they pick up Love's option, he could just retire which again would be bad for GB's cap, and onn top of that they won't get any trade comp. He holds the cards here.

Also, you don't extend Love without seeing him play, and you don't pick up a 5th year option for 20m just to start a 3 year rebuild.

I disagree completely with your statement that "GB has no pressure to move him". There is plenty of pressure. 

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, PFSIKH said:

makes more sense for the Packers to trade him after June 1st.

If the packers even hinted at this, Rodgers would retire just to spite them.

[section314]

3 hours ago, bicketybam said:

3 hours ago, Viermoo said:

It’s rumored that GB is insistent on this years 1st round pick from the Jets as a part of the deal. My theory is that they don’t believe in Jordan Love and want to combine the Jets #13, their #15 and next years 1st round pick to move up into the top three picks this year.
 
 
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Which QB in this draft is worth 3 first round draft picks??

Nobody

[FactsOnly]

You Packer Backers fail to realize Rodgers has to WANT to play for the team he’s being traded to

his favorite OC EVER is here

they had joint practices last year

he already came out of his epiphany retreat and said JETS

you goofs think he’s gonna embarrass himself and go back on his word after building up this retreat as his shining moment? ??

smarten up

[JTJet]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

No they shouldn't give us a 1.  It's not crazy that an even exchange of draft or player value trade goes each way plus we take the contract and Rodgers.  The deal the Rams made with Detroit.  Detroit got 2 first round picks plus Goff for Stafford.  Detroit also inherited 106.6 million of Goff's contract.

Money was a huge part of that deal.  Without Detroit taking the money they don't get the picks.  

An even exchange is not a high draft pick.

None of this takes into account the point in their career these players are at, and the fact that Rodgers is at most a 2 year rental. 

After the debacle of a contract that the Jets are taking on, those two items right there are by FAR the most important factors.

Jets - Taking on huge contract, Old player, 2 years at most. 

Packers - HAVE to offload that contract to survive, no other suitors, Rodgers has a defacto trade me to who I want or I retire and ruin your life clause, and they need any help they can get to give Love some help. 

I assure you, what the fans think has zero bearing on JDs decision making, it hasnt thus far, so why should it start now?

He didnt give a sh*t that most of us think Becton is a blubbery waste of a draft pick, he still drafted him, banked on him, and continues to hold out hope. If he cared what we thought, he would have dumped him for a ham sandwich.