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Theory as to why Green Bay is playing hard ball


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1 hour ago, PFSIKH said:

All the leverage?  The Jets have a solid team everywhere, but the QB.  The Packers leverage is the Jets are looking at trotting out Zach Wilson, an as yet to be named drafted rookie QB in an admittedly poor QB draft class or the likes of Wentz, Bridgewater or Matt Ryan.

 

All the leverage?

Yes, all of it.  
 
Packers have to unload that contract and the only way they can unload is by trading it. The Jets are the only team willing to do that. The Jets can drop their offer to the lowest point where no other team is still willing to get in. As long as they’re the only team willing to trade for Rodgers, the Packers have to trade him to the Jets. They cannot have that contract on their books. 
 
The pressure for the Jets is as you laid out, but it’s not in the same stratosphere as the financial pressure the Packers are under. Unless or until another team decides to bid on Rodgers, the Jets have certainty that Rodgers will be traded to them eventually. 
 
Waiting until after June 1 would help the Packers with this year’s cap, but total amount they have to clear would remain the same. They have a big charge coming from Rodgers contract in 2024, regardless, and would probably be better off getting the $8.6M taken off this year’s cap to lessen that blow. 

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6 minutes ago, slats said:

Waiting until after June 1 would help the Packers with this year’s cap, but total amount they have to clear would remain the same. They have a big charge coming from Rodgers contract in 2024, regardless, and would probably be better off getting the $8.6M taken off this year’s cap to lessen that blow. 

This alone would be reason for JD to imply “The longer you delay, the lower the draft compensation“ They are NOT getting #13 this year. They are NOT getting # 43 this year. They are NOT getting a 1st nor a 2nd next year.

My guess: 4th this year & a 3rd next year.

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39 minutes ago, JTJet said:

An even exchange is not a high draft pick.

None of this takes into account the point in their career these players are at, and the fact that Rodgers is at most a 2 year rental. 

After the debacle of a contract that the Jets are taking on, those two items right there are by FAR the most important factors.

Jets - Taking on huge contract, Old player, 2 years at most. 

Packers - HAVE to offload that contract to survive, no other suitors, Rodgers has a defacto trade me to who I want or I retire and ruin your life clause, and they need any help they can get to give Love some help. 

I assure you, what the fans think has zero bearing on JDs decision making, it hasnt thus far, so why should it start now?

He didnt give a sh*t that most of us think Becton is a blubbery waste of a draft pick, he still drafted him, banked on him, and continues to hold out hope. If he cared what we thought, he would have dumped him for a ham sandwich.

So if I read you correctly the Jets should get Rodgers without draft or player compensation and the Packers should be kicking in a portion of his salary cap for taking on his contract. 

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2 hours ago, JetsRay said:

Not only do the Jets have all the leverage, JD and the Jets should go on offense, and as each week goes by the 2023 compensation lessens.

If they don't take the deal on the table today, and let's say it's a 2023 2nd rounder and a conditional 4th next year.

Next week it becomes a 2023 3rd rounder, and a conditional forth, and so on...

Disclaimer, I trust Wingo, I'm not sure compensation is the issue.

I don't think that is necessary.  JD typically has a value for the asset being purchased and he rarely deviates from that.

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

If the packers even hinted at this, Rodgers would retire just to spite them.

You think he really doesn't want to play for the Jets he's really motivated by spite toward the Packers?  He seems prety petty to me but that's a very low bar. 

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2 hours ago, slats said:

Yes, all of it.  
 
Packers have to unload that contract and the only way they can unload is by trading it. The Jets are the only team willing to do that. The Jets can drop their offer to the lowest point where no other team is still willing to get in. As long as they’re the only team willing to trade for Rodgers, the Packers have to trade him to the Jets. They cannot have that contract on their books. 
 
The pressure for the Jets is as you laid out, but it’s not in the same stratosphere as the financial pressure the Packers are under. Unless or until another team decides to bid on Rodgers, the Jets have certainty that Rodgers will be traded to them eventually. 
 
Waiting until after June 1 would help the Packers with this year’s cap, but total amount they have to clear would remain the same. They have a big charge coming from Rodgers contract in 2024, regardless, and would probably be better off getting the $8.6M taken off this year’s cap to lessen that blow. 

The difference is that the Packers have accepted they aren't going to be contenders but the Jets have to win games now 

The Packers could keep Rodgers, park him on the bench and it wouldn't change their season either way 

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If your Green Bay wouldn't you want the 50 mil off the books asap and the draft picks to improve your team for Jordan Love's 5th year?  To me the Packers have more to lose the Jets can wait till training camp and still be whole the Packers end up with their best players being Jordan Love and Christian Watson....but I suspect cry baby Jets fans will start crying in a few days.

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22 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The difference is that the Packers have accepted they aren't going to be contenders but the Jets have to win games now 

The Packers could keep Rodgers, park him on the bench and it wouldn't change their season either way 

That would work out well.  Their cap decimated, a disgruntled Rodgers on the bench with fans screaming for him to play, the coach asking why he is being sabotaged by having Rodgers on the bench.  Sounds like a good plan to me.

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29 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The difference is that the Packers have accepted they aren't going to be contenders but the Jets have to win games now 

The Packers could keep Rodgers, park him on the bench and it wouldn't change their season either way 

You’ve already stated that you don’t understand the cap, and this post further proves your point. For this year, he’d only cost them another another $15M, sure, but that’s not the point. If they don’t trade him, they’re on the hook for another $59M payable this year, and $49M next year. On top of the $67M they can’t get out of. They cannot have that contract on the books and the only way out of it is a trade. The Jets are their only potential partner. They have no leverage. This is obvious from a layman’s standpoint. Thing is, Joe Douglas has done significantly better in trades than I would’ve expected with Adams and Darnold, and I expect no less this time. He’s not going to blink, no matter how much you think he has to win games. It’s March. He doesn’t have to win games for a while. And if Green Bay tries to drag this out until training camp, Douglas could walk away and they would be capital-F ****ed. That’s not happening. Waiting beyond the draft doesn’t hurt the Jets, that just means they keep all their picks this year while other QB needy teams pick them up in the draft. 

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7 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Packers assume that if the Jets back out, Rogers will just retire and will be off their books either way.

If Rodgers is under the perception that the Packers are out to screw him, he’s not going to do them the favor of retiring. There’s no way he’d do that, and there’s no way they’re making that assumption. 

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17 minutes ago, Green DNA said:

That would work out well.  Their cap decimated, a disgruntled Rodgers on the bench with fans screaming for him to play, the coach asking why he is being sabotaged by having Rodgers on the bench.  Sounds like a good plan to me.

or they can bench Jordan Love. They have options. 

the GB HC and the GM both got long term extensions before last season. Also there's no real owner to come down on them hard

meanwhile JD is in the last 2 years of his deal and Woody just lent him his private plane to get this deal done

the Packers have all the leverage here. The Jets have to overpay in terms of draft picks. They can't walk away from the table. 

 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

You’ve already stated that you don’t understand the cap, and this post further proves your point. For this year, he’d only cost them another another $15M, sure, but that’s not the point. If they don’t trade him, they’re on the hook for another $59M payable this year, and $49M next year. On top of the $67M they can’t get out of.

simple question why is it a disaster for GB to carry this player on their books but it would be cause for celebration for NYJ to carry this player on their books? it's the same player, it's the same cap

with GB Rodgers is a living legend no one over there really wants to see him in a Jets uniform anymore than Jets fans wanted to see Namath in a Rams uniform 

 

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3 minutes ago, slats said:

You’ve already stated that you don’t understand the cap, and this post further proves your point. For this year, he’d only cost them another another $15M, sure, but that’s not the point. If they don’t trade him, they’re on the hook for another $59M payable this year, and $49M next year. On top of the $67M they can’t get out of. They cannot have that contract on the books and the only way out of it is a trade. The Jets are their only potential partner. They have no leverage. This is obvious from a layman’s standpoint. Thing is, Joe Douglas has done significantly better in trades than I would’ve expected with Adams and Darnold, and I expect no less this time. He’s not going to blink, no matter how much you think he has to win games. It’s March. He doesn’t have to win games for a while. And if Green Bay tries to drag this out until training camp, Douglas could walk away and they would be capital-F ****ed. That’s not happening. Waiting beyond the draft doesn’t hurt the Jets, that just means they keep all their picks this year while other QB needy teams pick them up in the draft. 

so if the packers do not trade him - they are on the hook for 175 million? With Vegas out of the picture (not that they ever were in) who exactly is trading for him outside of the Jets?

And yet the experts and insider are still playing the leverage game.

 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

simple question why is it a disaster for GB to carry this player on their books but it would be cause for celebration for NYJ to carry this player on their books? it's the same player, it's the same cap

with GB Rodgers is a living legend no one over there really wants to see him in a Jets uniform anymore than Jets fans wanted to see Namath in a Rams uniform 

 

I’ve already explained this. They’re already on the hook for $67M that they can’t get out of. They can’t have another $110M added to that total for a player they want to move on from. The Jets don’t have that $67M problem, just whatever portion of the contract they agree to take on via trade terms. It’s likely that Green Bay will eat some of that as well, but it’ll be worth it to them to get out of the rest. 

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3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if the Jets had leverage this deal would be done 

we can talk semantics all day and night but the fact the deal is not done points to a standoff 

  a standoff favors GB because they have 2 viable QBs to fall back on and we have Zach 

There’s no pressure on either side for it to be done anytime soon. Jets would like it before OTAs, and I imagine the Packers want it done before the draft in order to get something this year for the player, but that’s it. Whether it’s done now or April 27 doesn’t matter to either side, so the Packers are holding out for more until they don’t get it. 

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

There’s no pressure on either side for it to be done anytime soon. Jets would like it before OTAs, and I imagine the Packers want it done before the draft in order to get something this year for the player, but that’s it. Whether it’s done now or April 27 doesn’t matter to either side, so the Packers are holding out for more until they don’t get it. 

The Packers have been entirely inert in free agency because of this, and that’s a team with a bunch of holes. They need to win right away to save their jobs. I can’t imagine that they want to drag this out in the vain hopes that Douglas is going to get desperate.

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14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

simple question why is it a disaster for GB to carry this player on their books but it would be cause for celebration for NYJ to carry this player on their books? it's the same player, it's the same cap

with GB Rodgers is a living legend no one over there really wants to see him in a Jets uniform anymore than Jets fans wanted to see Namath in a Rams uniform 

 

Green Bay is carrying cap charges for his existing bonuses. The Jets are picking up cap charges for his base and paying cash on his option bonuses. The Packers would get stuck paying for all of that. 

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

The Packers have been entirely inert in free agency because of this, and that’s a team with a bunch of holes. They need to win right away to save their jobs. I can’t imagine that they want to drag this out in the vain hopes that Douglas is going to get desperate.

Have to wonder if the GB organization is kinda paralyzed with this decision.  

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

Have to wonder if the GB organization is kinda paralyzed with this decision.  

They absolutely are, and they’re acting like it. For all the talk that the Jets are desperate to appease their fan base, it’s even more true for the Packers, whose fan base expects a Matt Stafford return. They’re going to puke up cheese curds when they get a 4 and a conditional 2.

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10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Packers have been entirely inert in free agency because of this, and that’s a team with a bunch of holes. They need to win right away to save their jobs. I can’t imagine that they want to drag this out in the vain hopes that Douglas is going to get desperate.

the Packers are inert in free agency almost every year 

also they don't need to win to save their jobs they just got extensions in June 22

the Packers GM and HC have more job security than the Jets GM and HC 

the packers could make Love or Rodgers ride pine for a year they wouldn't get fired because of it 

JD really could get fired if he doesn't have a winning season soon 

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21 minutes ago, slats said:

I’ve already explained this. They’re already on the hook for $67M that they can’t get out of. They can’t have another $110M added to that total for a player they want to move on from. The Jets don’t have that $67M problem, just whatever portion of the contract they agree to take on via trade terms. It’s likely that Green Bay will eat some of that as well, but it’ll be worth it to them to get out of the rest. 

ok but how much money the Packers eat dictates the price of the draft pick, right? 

if the Jets want the Packers to trade this dude and also eat a whole bunch of his dumb contract, that will take the 13 pick maybe more 

that's where 2 first rounders come from, the assumption that GB takes on a portion of Rodgers' insane contract.

in a way, it's good that the Jets wait because they can use their draft picks in April if there's no deal 

but the Jets don't have a backup plan and to have the whole season riding on a handshake deal could easily backfire 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Biggs said:

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

And we are the only buyers for the asset that they have. Jets have quite a bit of leverage here. If we only have Rogers for one year I can see why we want to keep our #1 and not succumb to ridiculous demands. Again, they only have one buyer and they need picks to build around Love. Also, it looks pretty bad what if they hold Rogers hostage. Other players will notice.

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26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It’s been so frustrating to watch the coverage of this and for them not to even mention the cap-crippling bomb that awaits the Packers if Rodgers doesn’t get his way. The tenor of everything on ESPN, NFLN, etc has been “LOLJets at the mercy of the esteemed Packers.” It’s been shameful.

It’s a more compelling story this way but, perhaps more cynically, could also be the media trying to make life hard for Rodgers after his very public up yours appearance on McAfee. It doesn’t matter as long as JD can keep Woody away. Woody feels public pressure, Douglas doesn’t. 

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Just now, bitonti said:

the Packers are inert in free agency almost every year 

also they don't need to win to save their jobs they just got extensions in June 22

the Packers GM and HC have more job security than the Jets GM and HC 

the packers could make Love or Rodgers ride pine for a year they wouldn't get fired because of it 

JD really could get fired if he doesn't have a winning season soon 

The Packers are losing a Hall of Fame QB and all of their miserable draft picks are going to get exposed in a 5-12 season where—if Jordan Love hasn’t magically become good—they’re going to be the 4th best team in their division. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Packers are losing a Hall of Fame QB and all of their miserable draft picks are going to get exposed in a 5-12 season where—if Jordan Love hasn’t magically become good—they’re going to be the 4th best team in their division. 

yup

and I don't think they much care.

It's a rebuilding "see what they have in Love" type of year for them 

the GM and HC all got extensions last summer knowing this was going to happen 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

They absolutely are, and they’re acting like it. For all the talk that the Jets are desperate to appease their fan base, it’s even more true for the Packers, whose fan base expects a Matt Stafford return. They’re going to puke up cheese curds when they get a 4 and a conditional 2.

The problem GB has now is that by trading rodgers and watching love suck, it exposes the gm and this regime for coasting on rodgers, seeing devante go and having no real talent left to contend, while watching the division overtake them.  To not suck they need to keep rodgers but long term it’s worse if they do.

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

ok but how much money the Packers eat dictates the price of the draft pick, right? 

if the Jets want the Packers to trade this dude and also eat a whole bunch of his dumb contract, that will take the 13 pick maybe more 

that's where 2 first rounders come from, the assumption that GB takes on a portion of Rodgers' insane contract.

in a way, it's good that the Jets wait because they can use their draft picks in April if there's no deal 

but the Jets don't have a backup plan and to have the whole season riding on a handshake deal could easily backfire 

Jets aren’t giving up that pick and, if Green Bay continues to play hardball, they can wait until after the draft and give them nothing this year. 

The difference that you don’t seem to be able to grasp is that while the Jets desperately want this deal to happen, Green Bay actually needs it to happen. JD has a lot on the line, but he knows the Packers have more. That’s why he has all the leverage. They have to trade Rodgers, there’s no other out, and the Jets are the only team calling. 

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