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Theory as to why Green Bay is playing hard ball


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2 minutes ago, slats said:

The difference that you don’t seem to be able to grasp is that while the Jets desperately want this deal to happen, Green Bay actually needs it to happen. JD has a lot on the line, but he knows the Packers have more. That’s why he has all the leverage. They have to trade Rodgers, there’s no other out, and the Jets are the only team calling. 

we disagree there

the Packers don't need to do anything. They can just let it play out with one of their QBs on the bench and call it rebuilding - it would be inconvenient but no one would get fired over it 

that's not really how they do things in Green Bay anyway. There's no Woody to arbitrarily fire someone 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, slats said:

This is you not being a “cap guy.” They’re already on the hook with Rodgers for $67M in dead money. They cannot afford another $110M on top of that over the next two years. Especially as they’re trying to move onto a QB on his fifth year option. 

I asked this question once I'll ask it again 

why not? 

if the jets can afford it, so can the packers, right? 

it's not like they play under a different version of the cap than we do 

 

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36 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

And we are the only buyers for the asset that they have. Jets have quite a bit of leverage here. If we only have Rogers for one year I can see why we want to keep our #1 and not succumb to ridiculous demands. Again, they only have one buyer and they need picks to build around Love. Also, it looks pretty bad what if they hold Rogers hostage. Other players will notice.

The idea that we would absorb the contract for a 1 is absurd.   There's a lot more to this deal including what Green Bay is willing to pay and if Rodgers is willing to renegiotate the deal with the Jets.

The Jets want him.  The Jets have let every option sign elsewhere.  The Jets think Zach is a bust at worst or a long term project at best.  

Green Bay wants to get rid of him.  It only takes one on each side to make a deal that works for both sides. 

What ridiculous demands do we really know about with actual context of what a deal might look like?  We really don't know.  

I doubt Douglas and Green Bay are negiotating in the media.  

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

It’s been so frustrating to watch the coverage of this and for them not to even mention the cap-crippling bomb that awaits the Packers if Rodgers doesn’t get his way. The tenor of everything on ESPN, NFLN, etc has been “LOLJets at the mercy of the esteemed Packers.” It’s been shameful.

While this is true they are all, once again, going to look quite stupid when Green Bay gets a couple of 3rds for him.

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27 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I asked this question once I'll ask it again 

why not? 

if the jets can afford it, so can the packers, right? 

it's not like they play under a different version of the cap than we do 

Whut?

Because the Jets have a much younger team overall than the Packers do, most of which are currently playing on cheaper contracts. 

You realize the two teams cap situations are WILDLY different if AR is on either team right? 

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8 hours ago, Viermoo said:

 

It’s rumored that GB is insistent on this years 1st round pick from the Jets as a part of the deal. My theory is that they don’t believe in Jordan Love and want to combine the Jets #13, their #15 and next years 1st round pick to move up into the top three picks this year.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

They want 13 because they think they can get it.   Nothing to do with Love.   The mistake the Jets made was not having a trade in place with GB two weeks ago before they went to Malibu.   Back when they had Carr as a backup plan 

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21 minutes ago, JTJet said:

Whut?

Because the Jets have a much younger team overall than the Packers do, most of which are currently playing on cheaper contracts. 

You realize the two teams cap situations are WILDLY different if AR is on either team right? 

The average age of the Green Bay roster is 26 years and 5 months.  The Jets roster is 26 years and 4 months.  Green Bay is ranked 17 and the Jets are ranked 18th in age of roster.  The Packers actually have more cap space than the Jets right now.  

The difference in average age of NFL rosters is amazingly small.  Certain positions are extremely expensive.  The Jets have more cap spread out than the Packers.  That will change if we trade for Rodgers.  We have a sh*tty inexpensive QB.  They have a really expensive HOF QB.  Swap him to the Jets the entire situation is reversed unless Rodgers renegiotates or the Packers absorb some of the hit.  

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7 hours ago, sciond said:

They should give the Jets a Rd. 1 pick for bailing them out....

So the Jets should give a late day 2 pick I have been saying a Rd. 5 pick all along

They need this trade even more than the Jets.

I have been saying this forever; the salary cap hell you are getting in this trade makes it a terrible idea and will set this team back for years.

It is hard to believe that JD would make such a stupid deal. It smells of Woody the Jonson.....

Then everyone will blame JD

it is a SOJ move getting him

Just for the record the year 3 dead cap hit is 30 mil not 60. Last month I thought it was 60 thought I saw you mention it as 60 somewhere among the threads.

Not ideal but not as bad as the 60 I thought it was a month ago.

The fact is that if 3 seasons from now are playing someone other than Rodgers (which is likely) it's probably someone on a rookie contract and we factor that cap hit into the idea that we are paying a rookie.

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1 minute ago, JTJet said:

So how do you know this isnt happening? It's been widely speculated that he would. 

I think everything is being negiotated.  I don't think anyone is pointing guns to anyone's head.  If I was to guess where the hang up is I would guess Rodgers is trying to get more money out of both sides.  

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13 minutes ago, Lurker89 said:

Just for the record the year 3 dead cap hit is 30 mil not 60. Last month I thought it was 60 thought I saw you mention it as 60 somewhere among the threads.

Not ideal but not as bad as the 60 I thought it was a month ago.

The fact is that if 3 seasons from now are playing someone other than Rodgers (which is likely) it's probably someone on a rookie contract and we factor that cap hit into the idea that we are paying a rookie.

almost 60 mil in cost

the second year is a big number and worse if he retires....

they will have to add voidable years and then they ca get it 30 mil IRC

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15 minutes ago, JTJet said:

So how do you know this isnt happening? It's been widely speculated that he would. 

You know what the real difference between Brady and Rodgers is besides 6 more SB wins and 9 more apperances.   He was willing to take a lot less money than Rodgers.  

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10 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You know what the real difference between Brady and Rodgers is besides 6 more SB wins and 9 more apperances.   He was willing to take a lot less money than Rodgers.  

Partially true. 

Brady got paid through other means by the Patriots to offset that salary. 

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

we disagree there

the Packers don't need to do anything. They can just let it play out with one of their QBs on the bench and call it rebuilding - it would be inconvenient but no one would get fired over it 

that's not really how they do things in Green Bay anyway. There's no Woody to arbitrarily fire someone 

 

 

Is the 50+ million one sitting in the bench? Haha   Haha 

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

I asked this question once I'll ask it again 

why not? 

if the jets can afford it, so can the packers, right? 

it's not like they play under a different version of the cap than we do 

 

This is the MAIN reason i am ok either way ...

I would LOVE LOVE LOVE Aaron ...

But the amount of $$$ ... If Green Bay wont come off of the 1st round draft pick ... this makes losing out on him to spite Green Bay a decent consolation prize. And the Jets move to next option.

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I think the Packers are asking for more than just this years first rounder. 

If I'm JD, and I have to negotiate a contract with Quinnen this year, then I have Sauce, Breece and Wilson in the near future. Not having a first round pick this year could actually be a blessing in disguise. At least the argument can be made. 

There has to be something unreasonable being demanded by Green Bay. I'm convinced of that. 

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3 minutes ago, bicketybam said:
2 hours ago, JTJet said:
Partially true. 
Brady got paid through other means by the Patriots to offset that salary. 

And his wife was loaded.

That too. 

Now shes banging her 50k a year jujitsu instructor. 

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2 hours ago, sciond said:

almost 60 mil in cost

the second year is a big number and worse if he retires....

they will have to add voidable years and then they ca get it 30 mil IRC

No they do not. Watch the OTC Video I posted.

$15 mil this year. $32mil next then $32mil in ‘25 & ‘26 if they don’t rework his deal.

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11 hours ago, Biggs said:

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

Yes, I agree with most of what you say.  in any negotiation, you must ask yourself: "What is the goal?"

The goal is to maximize value, as you have already stated. As far as emotional pressure, I do not believe that Joe Douglas feels emotional pressure.  JD will maximize value by not giving up more than he should.  I feel extremely confident that the Jets will 'NOT" be giving up a 1st round draft pick this year.  It is my opinion that Green Bay understands that, and they have moved on from that position, if that was ever their position.

I can see the Jets giving up a 3rd round pick this year.  After that, it's anyone's guess.  Perhaps something like a 3rd round pick next year, with meeting certain conditions that will move to a 2nd, 4th, 5th, or even a 1st round pick next year depending on if the Jets get to the Superbowl.  Will Rodgers play next year?  That will also be part of the equation.  Players are on the table as well, for sure.

So, let's say the Jets can't make a deal.  What happens.  Well, the Jets could take the best QB available at #13.  They can trade for a veteran on another team, or they can go for a stop-gap free agent QB, like Teddy Bridgewater, Mitchel Tribisky, Joe Flacco, or Matt Ryan.

I believe that JD has icewater in his veins, and will not be bullied into making a very bad deal.  Might he give up more than he wanted.  Sure. And if the Jets do move on, Green Bay is screwed.  No other suiters, a discontented Aaron Rodgers, without Lazzard, and just pay the man $60M, because he will not be retiring.  It will be toxic over there, and if you don't think that Green Bay has nothing to lose by holding onto Rodgers, then you are very misinformed.

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1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

No they do not. Watch the OTC Video I posted.

$15 mil this year. $32mil next then $32mil in ‘25 & ‘26 if they don’t rework his deal.

and if he only plays one year..........

I watched it.

1 year is the most like scenario

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1 hour ago, sciond said:

and if he only plays one year..........

I watched it.

1 year is the most like scenario

You don’t think JD asked him this? You don’t think Rodgers would rather retire from the only organization he’s ever played for? He still get his $. You have no idea. He’s been screwed over by the Packers. You don’t think that lights a fire in his belly to prove them wrong?

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8 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

You don’t think JD asked him this? You don’t think Rodgers would rather retire from the only organization he’s ever played for? He still get his $. You have no idea. He’s been screwed over by the Packers. You don’t think that lights a fire in his belly to prove them wrong?

....and you trust Mr. Wishy Washy?

I sure don't

look what he put GB through every year

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6 hours ago, bitonti said:

I asked this question once I'll ask it again 

why not? 

if the jets can afford it, so can the packers, right? 

it's not like they play under a different version of the cap than we do 

 

Man do I miss you and MSGold12 going at it. The good old days.

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17 hours ago, bitonti said:

we disagree there

the Packers don't need to do anything. They can just let it play out with one of their QBs on the bench and call it rebuilding - it would be inconvenient but no one would get fired over it 

that's not really how they do things in Green Bay anyway. There's no Woody to arbitrarily fire someone 

 

 

you sir .. .are wrong.

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On 3/17/2023 at 8:05 AM, Biggs said:

The reason they are playing hard ball is Rodgers is an assett owned by Green Bay.  They want to maximize his value.  They are not under any pressure to move him.  They know who their starting QB is.  They know what their cap hit is this year for Rodgers.  They know what the Rams and Denver gave up for Stafford and Wilson.  They know the Jets are out of options unless they want to make a big run at Lamar which doesn't seem to be in the cards.

The external pressure is on the Jets to make a deal as quickly as possible.  The External pressure on the Packers is to maximize value and time is not of the essence for them.  

This may reverse after June 1 but the Jets are making a 1 year run and want Rodgers in the building ASAP.  

Green Bay doesn't need to move him before the draft.  They can still trade for future draft picks and current players after the draft.  They may prefer current Jets players and future high picks.  It's not cut and dry that their priority is this years draft.  That's an assumption. 

The Packers goal is simply to maximize the value of an assett that they control.  

The emotional aspect of this is simply pressure on the Jets.  The Packers have moved on, they aren't under any emotional pressure.  

External Pressure is a myth ... decision makers like JD have bigger balls than that.

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12 hours ago, jgb said:

They want as much as they can get. We want to give as little as we can give.

It’s a dance that takes time.

Rodgers is basically a slam dunk to come here.

I agree ... though not sure its a slam dunk ... Id say it sits at a comfortable 90% right now.

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13 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

External Pressure is a myth ... decision makers like JD have bigger balls than that.

Speaking of balls.  Tannebaum got Favre for a draft pick the following year.  Conditional 4.  3rd at 50% of the snaps, 2nd at 70% and 1st if they got to the SB.

Lets see if JD pulls off a similiar deal.  

If the Jets make a deal late and we get off to a bad start and miss the playoffs by a game I think JD is a horses ass.  If he doesn't get a Tannebaum like deal he's a horses ass.  

JD had big balls when he drafted Zach and hired a defensive coach and a 1st time play caller.   This mess is clearly JD's making.  

I like him.  He seems to be doing a good job and doesn't tip his hand.  I think he completely sh*t the bed by drafting Zach with a defensive HC and 1st time play caller and expecting him to start day 1.  It was mismanagement.  That's why we are were we are.

Balls aside.  This is a huge year for JD.  By huge I mean the Jets are expected to compete for the playoffs and do something in the playoffs.  

I don't believe JD would be involved in this deal at all if he hadn't screwed up.  I don't believe for a minute he would have gone after a 1 year SB run at this point.  He's already lost control to Woody.   This move has panic and Woody all over it.

Not saying it won't be fun but JD screwed the pouch.  

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