Rodgers article worth it's own thread IMO

[AFJF]

Somebody just sent me an article breaking down what impact Rodgers' contract will have on the Jets if they deal for him

Jets have all the leverage in Aaron Rodgers trade negotiations: Will they use it? (substack.com)

The likely scenarios for the Jets acquiring Rodgers on this contracts are:

• One year of play and 2024 offseason retirement: $60 million cash spend, $15.8 million 2023 cap hit, retirement processed post-June 1st, and dead money totaling roughly $44 million in 2024 and 2025.

• Two years of play and 2025 offseason retirement: $110 million cash spend, $48.3 million 2023 and 2024 total cap hit, retirement processed post-June 1st, and dead money totaling roughly $61 million in 2025 and 2026.

•  

[rex-n-effect]

Somebody literally posted this a day or two ago in the merged thread.

[hawk]

9 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

Somebody literally posted this a day or two ago in the merged thread.

I'm sure there is a lot that has been missed due to a 300 page thread, but this has been being discussed from the beginning.  It was one of the biggest proponents for wanting Carr, at least for me.

[Zachtomims47]

It’s an expensive move. We get it. Well worth it. 

[AFJF]

41 minutes ago, rex-n-effect said:

Somebody literally posted this a day or two ago in the merged thread.

Sorry, I'm only up to page 174.  Hoping to take a few days off work to get caught up.

[AFJF]

*its

[BigRy56]

If the trade goes through and the Jets rework his contract, does anything in his current contract actually matter? Honest question since I’m not sure and Rodgers already said he would redo his contract 

[AFJF]

2 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

It’s an expensive move. We get it. Well worth it. 

Wholly disagree, but to each his own.

[Zachtomims47]

25 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Wholly disagree, but to each his own.

Why not? How does it hinder them moving forward?

[ptisme]

36 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

If the trade goes through and the Jets rework his contract, does anything in his current contract actually matter? Honest question since I’m not sure and Rodgers already said he would redo his contract 

I'm sure that reworked contract will involve a massive pay cut to allow the Jets to fully pursue this super bowl window (sarcasm alert)

[AFJF]

22 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

Why not? How does it hinder them moving forward?

Too much to pay for a one year rental.  Think they might win the SB?  Fine.  Include a conditional pick that gives GB a 1st rounder if they win the SB.  Outside of that, you're helping Green Bay get off the hook for an albatross of a contract that they handed out and taking on a ton of dead money for years after Rodgers leaves.  Again...all for what is very likely a one year rental.  Too steep.

[Zachtomims47]

2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Too much to pay for a one year rental.  Think they might win the SB?  Fine.  Include a conditional pick that gives GB a 1st rounder if they win the SB.  Outside of that, you're helping Green Bay get off the hook for an albatross of a contract that they handed out and taking on a ton of dead money for years after Rodgers leaves.  Again...all for what is very likely a one year rental.  Too steep.

But I mean how does it hurt the Jets taking on that one year rental? Can’t resign someone? Extend someone? 
If it meant we can’t resign Quinnen then I’d agree. But I don’t think that’s the case?

[AFJF]

13 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

But I mean how does it hurt the Jets taking on that one year rental? Can’t resign someone? Extend someone? 
If it meant we can’t resign Quinnen then I’d agree. But I don’t think that’s the case?

They lose picks and future cap space for a one-year rental.  Losing that much in cap space on a team with a small window to win is reckless IMO.

[Beerfish]

18 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

But I mean how does it hurt the Jets taking on that one year rental? Can’t resign someone? Extend someone? 
If it meant we can’t resign Quinnen then I’d agree. But I don’t think that’s the case?

Using a cap charge for two years that a guy is playing is one thing having a possible large cap hit the two years after he is gone just when guys like garret Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner etc will be looking for deals is a possible problem.

If things happen to go bad in year one t might be one year of qbing and three years of cap costs.

[Zachtomims47]

20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Using a cap charge for two years that a guy is playing is one thing having a possible large cap hit the two years after he is gone just when guys like garret Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner etc will be looking for deals is a possible problem.

If things happen to go bad in year one t might be one year of qbing and three years of cap costs.

That’s what I meant. Will it hold us back from resigning guys? But wouldn’t you open up resigning one of those guys not for another 2-3 years? 

[Maxman]

Here is my take:
 

1. The Jets have a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl

2. The Jets have some young talent on offense that seem Super Bowl level

3. These both happened with the worst QB play in the league.

So you could have signed Carr and fall short every year and have a nice 5 year run.

-Or- you can bring in the one guy that makes this team a Super Bowl contender. I am 53, and none of us are getting any younger. Rodgers loves Hackett so maybe they have a two year commitment from him.

And after they win the next two, maybe he comes back for a 3rd. Maybe they redo the deal.

All I know is if you have a chance to win it all, go for it.

[hawk]

1 hour ago, BigRy56 said:

If the trade goes through and the Jets rework his contract, does anything in his current contract actually matter? Honest question since I’m not sure and Rodgers already said he would redo his contract 

No.  Right now he is due two options, and very small base salary in 2023 and 2024.  

I highly doubt the Jets take on $105 million, but how much of a discount is Rodgers really going to accept.  Right now he is guaranteed 105 Million plus his base salaries.

[Dunnie]

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Using a cap charge for two years that a guy is playing is one thing having a possible large cap hit the two years after he is gone just when guys like garret Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner etc will be looking for deals is a possible problem.

If things happen to go bad in year one t might be one year of qbing and three years of cap costs.

i think the counter is that the cap will be  much higher in 3 to 4 years .. so rodgers sunk cost will effectively be less at that time ? There is no way getting around the fact that if he bails after one year .. it would suck and have ramifications on future signings.

All that said .. I agree with @Maxman sign this beast already

Edited March 23 by Dunnie

[NIGHT STALKER]

You guys do realize the cap goes up a ton next season.  And I wouldn't be surprised if AR plays 2 and maybe 3 more years.  I'm looking forward to it because at the minimum it gives this franchise respectability and when was the last time the Jets weren't the clowns of the NFL?  Sit back and enjoy it and quit looking for hiccups which can be found in anything if you look hard enough.  LGJ!

[Maxman]

7 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

i think the counter is that the cap will be  much higher in 3 to 4 years .. so rodgers sunk cost will effectively be less at that time ? There is no way getting around the fact that if he bails after one year .. it would suck and have ramifications on future signings.

All that said .. I agree with @Maxman sign this beast already

If he bails after one year and the Jets win it all I am okay with that.

[Maxman]

5 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

You guys do realize the cap goes up a ton next season.  And I wouldn't be surprised if AR plays 2 and maybe 3 more years.  I'm looking forward to it because at the minimum it gives this franchise respectability and when was the last time the Jets weren't the clowns of the NFL?  Sit back and enjoy it and quit looking for hiccups which can be found in anything if you look hard enough.  LGJ!

I can't remember the Jets ever being talked about before the season as a team that could win the Super Bowl. That is what we are headed towards. In 4 years I will probably be missing games because I need a new hip or something lol.

You have a shot to win, win.

[AFJF]

18 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Here is my take:
 

1. The Jets have a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl

2. The Jets have some young talent on offense that seem Super Bowl level

3. These both happened with the worst QB play in the league.

So you could have signed Carr and fall short every year and have a nice 5 year run.

-Or- you can bring in the one guy that makes this team a Super Bowl contender. I am 53, and none of us are getting any younger. Rodgers loves Hackett so maybe they have a two year commitment from him.

And after they win the next two, maybe he comes back for a 3rd. Maybe they redo the deal.

All I know is if you have a chance to win it all, go for it.

I agree that they should go for it, but if they can go for it without embarrassing themselves and leaving themselves worse off if they don't win it, that would be preferable.

And the Carr idea is gone, but it's not as if we know they wouldn't have won with him.  Just as the Rams won with Stafford who was being talked about when the trade was made the same way Carr is now.

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, Dunnie said:

i think the counter is that the cap will be  much higher in 3 to 4 years .. so rodgers sunk cost will effectively be less at that time ? There is no way getting around the fact that if he bails after one year .. it would suck and have ramifications on future signings.

All that said .. I agree with @Maxman sign this beast already

This, and it’s not going to take nearly that long. Expect the cap to jump $40 million next year alone as the TV deal really starts kicking in & the lingering drop from covid is fully gone (otherwise it should've been closer to $250MM by now). From there, additional 7-9% compounded annual bumps will be larger in dollars than when that rate started with a lower basis.

Every GM knows it’s coming. By 2025 there should be a cap ceiling in the $280-290MM range at a minimum.

https://realitysportsonline.com/Content.aspx?articleID=looking-forward-expectations-for-the-nfl-salary-cap

 

It won’t feel like nothing at all when it hits, but if the post-Rodgers QB is an upcoming draft pick that’ll take most of that bite out of it, too.

[Falco21]

It always gives me a laugh when fans of this team make these comments when we are on the precipice of signing a HOF QB who would immediately put us in the Super Bowl conversation. 

But yeah, let's complain how expensive it will be ?

We have a top 5 defense and a roster loaded with talent. We are a QB away from a big run, yet let's complain about the cost to bring in a HOF QB, especially when history plays highly in our favor when a move like this is made.

[Scott Dierking]

57 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

This, and it’s not going to take nearly that long. Expect the cap to jump $40 million next year alone as the TV deal really starts kicking in & the lingering drop from covid is fully gone (otherwise it should've been closer to $250MM by now). From there, additional 7-9% compounded annual bumps will be larger in dollars than when that rate started with a lower basis.

Every GM knows it’s coming. By 2025 there should be a cap ceiling in the $280-290MM range at a minimum.

https://realitysportsonline.com/Content.aspx?articleID=looking-forward-expectations-for-the-nfl-salary-cap

 

It won’t feel like nothing at all when it hits, but if the post-Rodgers QB is an upcoming draft pick that’ll take most of that bite out of it, too.

I had read conservative estimates of a $25m average increase in cap over the next 5 years. And you can STILL manage around a tight cap, if you are willing to eat money and be creative in structure.

[bicketybam]

I'm sure that reworked contract will involve a massive pay cut to allow the Jets to fully pursue this super bowl window (sarcasm alert)

You're so hurt. It will be ok. You got Love.

[ptisme]

9 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

9 hours ago, ptisme said:

I'm sure that reworked contract will involve a massive pay cut to allow the Jets to fully pursue this super bowl window (sarcasm alert)

You're so hurt. It will be ok. You got Love.

DONT BE LOBALLIN ME I NO WAT I GOT HEAR

[LockeJET]

The Jets have already spoke with Rodgers a ton. there is no way they are doing all this for one year. Rodgers most likely gave them at least a two-year commitment.

[Sperm Edwards]

56 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I had read conservative estimates of a $25m average increase in cap over the next 5 years. And you can STILL manage around a tight cap, if you are willing to eat money and be creative in structure.

That average should kick in after an initial influx of nearly double that, though.

Everyone is backloading contracts even heavier than usual in anticipation.

[The Crusher]

9 hours ago, Maxman said:

Here is my take:
 

1. The Jets have a defense that is capable of winning a Super Bowl

2. The Jets have some young talent on offense that seem Super Bowl level

3. These both happened with the worst QB play in the league.

So you could have signed Carr and fall short every year and have a nice 5 year run.

-Or- you can bring in the one guy that makes this team a Super Bowl contender. I am 53, and none of us are getting any younger. Rodgers loves Hackett so maybe they have a two year commitment from him.

And after they win the next two, maybe he comes back for a 3rd. Maybe they redo the deal.

All I know is if you have a chance to win it all, go for it.

Please add me to the Jetnation outing list fir this year. Thanks. 

[Claymation]

9 hours ago, Maxman said:

If he bails after one year and the Jets win it all I am okay with that.

I just want a home playoff game, where the Jets win.

A Super Bowl which results in Woody raising the Lombardi would allow me to tolerate this team being irrelevant again for the next 10 years. 

[bicketybam]

DONT BE LOBALLIN ME I NO WAT I GOT HEAR

When do you go back to the cheese head board? 5 minutes after the trade is completed? Or will you be sticking around for the season? If for some reason Rodgers struggles, I bet you will be a regular here.

[ptisme]

30 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

2 hours ago, ptisme said:

DONT BE LOBALLIN ME I NO WAT I GOT HEAR

When do you go back to the cheese head board? 5 minutes after the trade is completed? Or will you be sticking around for the season? If for some reason Rodgers struggles, I bet you will be a regular here.

I’ll leave right after if it will keep your Barb safe from you.   But I’m invested in ur success.  I like Rodgers and will be rooting for the jets as a second favorite team .  

[ptisme]

2 hours ago, LockeJET said:

The Jets have already spoke with Rodgers a ton. there is no way they are doing all this for one year. Rodgers most likely gave them at least a two-year commitment.

Add to that the restructure could make it so he gets most of his money if he stays on two years

[johnnysd]

15 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

It’s an expensive move. We get it. Well worth it. 

It is not. A one year rental with that cap hit plus draft picks is an abysmal move unless we somehow win the playoffs. All it does is insure we are in a far worse position next season. Jets fans so eager to go scorched earth just to make the playoffs one year,.