Wil Levis reportedly plummeting down draft boards

[Beerfish]

Josh Allen 1812 yards,  16 tds, 56% comp  (Stinky Wyoming)

Levis 2406 yards, 19 tds,  65% comp.

[T0mShane]

32 minutes ago, derp said:

I think he flashes excellent ball placement but is extremely inconsistent. Presumably teams feel the inconsistency is mechanics based, thus him being so well liked. It’s hard to accidentally throw anything to what’s actually the right spot like Nguyen shows in that video on the incompletions, especially when you’re talking about smaller windows, so I’d guess that’s why folks think he can clean things up.

That’s my point though: a prospect who is extremely inconsistent with ball placement is generally referred to as an inaccurate passer, which some in the draft community have worked hard to avoid saying in this case, which is something I find new and odd. I think too many of them are bedazzled by the athletic testing and it’s skewing their analysis.

[UntouchableCrew]

Levis sucked in college. He was quite literally a bad QB at the NCAA level. I don’t understand the appeal of him at all.

[derp]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

That’s my point though: a prospect who is extremely inconsistent with ball placement is generally referred to as an inaccurate passer, which some in the draft community have worked hard to avoid saying in this case, which is something I find new and odd. I think too many of them are bedazzled by the athletic testing and it’s skewing their analysis.

I think the distinction between someone who can put it where he wants when his mechanics are on point but has mechanical inconsistencies and someone who is mechanically consistent but sprays the ball all over the place is important. Again, presumably those who know more about quarterback play than I do and who have more time to watch Richardson than I do fall more into the former category than the latter category.

And it’s obviously important to be process oriented rather than results oriented, which I think was Nguyen’s purpose in the video that started the exchange - and what got my attention. I’ll take those throws over a completion to a wide open receiver that’s on the wrong shoulder and forces him to slow down, even if the receiver scores on the play.

There were also hints at this perception of him as a prospect well before he tested and the testing didn’t surprise anyone, so I don’t think that’s it. I think he’s just the same interesting raw pile of tools that he was in December.

I’d be interested in JT O’Sullivan’s take on some of his stuff, he seems to do a pretty nuanced job with his understanding of the position. Don’t know where Waldman ultimately fell in him but his perspective is always interesting too, even if I think he gets a little too deep into his own process sometimes.

[Jet Blast]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

That’s my point though: a prospect who is extremely inconsistent with ball placement is generally referred to as Zach Wilson.

Fixed.

[BCJet]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Josh Allen 1812 yards,  16 tds, 56% comp  (Stinky Wyoming)

Levis 2406 yards, 19 tds,  65% comp.

Allen is solely responsible for these elite athletes with big arms being drafted so high even though he is such a statistical outlier that its amazing that a GM will pull the trigger on Levis in the top 20.

I am 1000% in the camp of picking the best OL/DL when you pick high solely because teams think they are gonna fix Levis or AR and therefore will 10 year starters at valuable positions drop further then they should.  

The chances of finding another Allen in the first round is not that much higher then finding a Dak or Hurts outside the first and it doesnt include you adding a blue chip player with your first round pick to help that QB.  

[Beerfish]

1 minute ago, BCJet said:

Allen is solely responsible for these elite athletes with big arms being drafted so high even though he is such a statistical outlier that its amazing that a GM will pull the trigger on Levis in the top 20.

I am 1000% in the camp of picking the best OL/DL when you pick high solely because teams think they are gonna fix Levis or AR and therefore will 10 year starters at valuable positions drop further then they should.  

The chances of finding another Allen in the first round is not that much higher then finding a Dak or Hurts outside the first and it doesnt include you adding a blue chip player with your first round pick to help that QB.  

Justin Herbert is of the same ilk as Allen, quite similar.

[T0mShane]

7 hours ago, derp said:

I think the distinction between someone who can put it where he wants when his mechanics are on point but has mechanical inconsistencies and someone who is mechanically consistent but sprays the ball all over the place is important. Again, presumably those who know more about quarterback play than I do and who have more time to watch Richardson than I do fall more into the former category than the latter category.

And it’s obviously important to be process oriented rather than results oriented, which I think was Nguyen’s purpose in the video that started the exchange - and what got my attention. I’ll take those throws over a completion to a wide open receiver that’s on the wrong shoulder and forces him to slow down, even if the receiver scores on the play.

There were also hints at this perception of him as a prospect well before he tested and the testing didn’t surprise anyone, so I don’t think that’s it. I think he’s just the same interesting raw pile of tools that he was in December.

I’d be interested in JT O’Sullivan’s take on some of his stuff, he seems to do a pretty nuanced job with his understanding of the position. Don’t know where Waldman ultimately fell in him but his perspective is always interesting too, even if I think he gets a little too deep into his own process sometimes.

Fwiw, Waldman has generally been intrigued by the tools combined with the brief glimpses of what appears to be high-level processing. PFF analytics have not been as forgiving, even though their draft guy Renner is high on him (and Tanner McKee for some reason). Zierlein has relayed that scouts are divided on his potential (the highs are high, but the lows are many and deep). Cosell is much more skeptical in his conclusion, but in the same vein as most scouting on Richardson.
 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2022/12/05/matt-waldmans-rsp-film-room-qb-anthony-richardson-florida-the-underrated-pocket-manager-and-field-general/

[BCJet]

9 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Justin Herbert is of the same ilk as Allen, quite similar.

Herberts last 2 seasons:  

63%   6600  61tds  14 ints

Josh Allen last 2 seasons

56%   5000 yards 44 tds 21 picks

I also think those stats dont even do justice to just how much more of a project Allen was as a QB then Herbert since Allen's last season he threw for 1800 yards, and was a disaster in his only game vs top competition.  He also never completed over 60% of his passes in college - which is VERY rare to come to the NFL and do what he has done.

[FactsOnly]

Zach Wilson is the future at Quarterback

[Flashlite80]

Scouting report reads much like what we see with Zach.  Strong arm but inconsistent ball placement on short routes.  Mechanics need work with a solid QB coach.  Think we already tried that guy.  His advantage is his size.  Of course, Buffalo took a chance on this profile and look what they got.

If he drops out of the first round, the red flags are bigger than many think.  Boom or bust type.  We are not taking a Quarterback, but if we do, it will be a day 3 pick.

[THE BARON]

1 hour ago, Flashlite80 said:

Scouting report reads much like what we see with Zach.  Strong arm but inconsistent ball placement on short routes.  Mechanics need work with a solid QB coach.  Think we already tried that guy.  His advantage is his size.  Of course, Buffalo took a chance on this profile and look what they got.

If he drops out of the first round, the red flags are bigger than many think.  Boom or bust type.  We are not taking a Quarterback, but if we do, it will be a day 3 pick.

tannker mckee's combine was so bad, he may fall all the way to a day three pick.  

[T0mShane]

On 4/2/2023 at 7:37 PM, derp said:

I think he flashes excellent ball placement but is extremely inconsistent. Presumably teams feel the inconsistency is mechanics based, thus him being so well liked. It’s hard to accidentally throw anything to what’s actually the right spot like Nguyen shows in that video on the incompletions, especially when you’re talking about smaller windows, so I’d guess that’s why folks think he can clean things up.

FWIW, here’s O’Sullivan on Richardson. Generally likes him, thinks he’s fixable. 
 

 

[Maxman]

On 3/31/2023 at 7:55 AM, Scott Dierking said:

Watched him a lot at Penn State. There is some moxie and leadership skills there, but the overall skill set is just not up to par. If the Jets could draft his heart and leadership, and transplant it into Wilson, I would do that.

I don't think the league allows that yet. 

[jgb]

QBs with this level of weirdo vibes/entitlement can be great… the question is if they aren’t already great, do they have what it takes to be coached and put in the work to become great?

Levis screams 2nd rounder to me for this reason.

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

QBs with this level of weirdo vibes/entitlement can be great… the question is if they aren’t already great, do they have what it takes to be coached and put in the work to become great?

Levis screams 2nd rounder to me for this reason.

This whole lot is second or third rounders

[32EBoozer]

On 4/2/2023 at 10:51 PM, BCJet said:

I am 1000% in the camp of picking the best OL/DL when you pick high solely because teams think they are gonna fix Levis or AR and therefore will 10 year starters at valuable positions drop further then they should.

…..not that much higher then finding a Dak or Hurts outside the first and it doesnt include you adding a blue chip player with your first round pick to help that QB.  

The benefits of having exceptional OL play.

[jgb]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

This whole lot is second or third rounders

Maybe but I can see how the others will go in first round. The thirst for “the guy” just is what it is. I wouldn’t take Levis in the first, though. Someone very well may, of course.

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

Maybe but I can see how the others will go in first round. The thirst for “the guy” just is what it is. I wouldn’t take Levis in the first, though. Someone very well may, of course.

I saw Pioli and Marc Ross talking about the QBs yesterday and they were both saying that ten years ago a guy with Anthony Richardson’s analytical profile would be a Day Three pick, but because everyone missed on Allen and Mahomes, teams are just taking swings on big athletes at the position and hoping for the best. 

[Dunnie]

I saw Pioli and Marc Ross talking about the QBs yesterday and they were both saying that ten years ago a guy with Anthony Richardson’s analytical profile would be a Day Three pick, but because everyone missed on Allen and Mahomes, teams are just taking swings on big athletes at the position and hoping for the best. 

I completely agree with that .. I'd say round 5

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Flashlite80]

On 4/2/2023 at 7:37 PM, derp said:

I think he flashes excellent ball placement but is extremely inconsistent. Presumably teams feel the inconsistency is mechanics based, thus him being so well liked. It’s hard to accidentally throw anything to what’s actually the right spot like Nguyen shows in that video on the incompletions, especially when you’re talking about smaller windows, so I’d guess that’s why folks think he can clean things up.

They have been saying the same things about Zach for 2 years.

[Flashlite80]

On 4/2/2023 at 10:53 PM, Beerfish said:

Justin Herbert is of the same ilk as Allen, quite similar.

Really?  Hebert completed 64% of his passes at Oregon. He threw 95 TD's to 23 INT's and threw for almost 3500 yds his senior year.

 

[playtowinthegame]

On 4/2/2023 at 8:29 PM, UntouchableCrew said:

Levis sucked in college. He was quite literally a bad QB at the NCAA level. I don’t understand the appeal of him at all.

 

Feels like we're talking about Josh Allen all over again. I hated Josh Allen in 2018, and I loved Josh Rosen. lol

[Warfish]

Unless he drops to the 5th or 6th, I'm not interested.

OT in the 1st
Center in the 2nd
DT in the 2nd
LB in the 4th
WR or S in the 5th
WR or S or QB in the 6th

All in on Rodgers and winning, which means protecting Rodgers.

Sadly, DT and LB remain needs given JD's moves so far.

[Flashlite80]

48 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I saw Pioli and Marc Ross talking about the QBs yesterday and they were both saying that ten years ago a guy with Anthony Richardson’s analytical profile would be a Day Three pick, but because everyone missed on Allen and Mahomes, teams are just taking swings on big athletes at the position and hoping for the best. 

Mahomes was picked 10th in the first round.  Only one QB was picked ahead of him, Mitch Trubinsky.   He went about where the scouts thought he would.  They undervalued his number in the Wild West offense in texas Tech.  DeShaun Watson went 2 picks later.

Every draft has a number of busts/underachievers and a number who outperform the scouting.  Mahomes certainly outperformed.  So did Watson, when on the field.  History is full of them.  One upon a time, Dan Marino was the 5th QB picked in the draft.  As a Jet fan, you can attest to the fact that you never know what you are going to get with a QB.

 

[jgb]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I saw Pioli and Marc Ross talking about the QBs yesterday and they were both saying that ten years ago a guy with Anthony Richardson’s analytical profile would be a Day Three pick, but because everyone missed on Allen and Mahomes, teams are just taking swings on big athletes at the position and hoping for the best. 

This is basically the @Jetsfan80 approach. QB so difficult to scout, draft the physical freaks and hope for the best.

[Flashlite80]

If the Jets fill the holes before the draft, i believe in the best player available.  As an example, wide receiver is not a big need.  Garrett Wilson says his former teammate at UCLA is better than him.  If the Jets agree, and he is the best available, I would take him.  

Cincinnati didn't need a receiver but took Jamarr Chase.  It helped take Joe Burrow and the Bengals to a Super Bowl behind a mediocre offensive line.  If a receiver like that was added to Wilson and Lazard, is it beyond belief that Aaron Rodgers would have the same success.

[T0mShane]

Just now, Flashlite80 said:

Mahomes was picked 10th in the first round.  Only one QB was picked ahead of him, Mitch Trubinsky.   He went about where the scouts thought he would.  They undervalued his number in the Wild West offense in texas Tech.  DeShaun Watson went 2 picks later.

Every draft has a number of busts/underachievers and a number who outperform the scouting.  Mahomes certainly outperformed.  So did Watson, when on the field.  History is full of them.  One upon a time, Dan Marino was the 5th QB picked in the draft.  As a Jet fan, you can attest to the fact that you never know what you are going to get with a QB.

 

I think my problem with QB prospects is that, as a Jets fan, I can’t conceptualize any of them fixing any of their deficiencies in a meaningful way when they get to the pros. 

[T0mShane]

27 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

Really?  Hebert completed 64% of his passes at Oregon. He threw 95 TD's to 23 INT's and threw for almost 3500 yds his senior year.

 

The knock on Herbert was that he was a nerdy, introverted personality with no alpha traits. 

[jgb]

25 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

 

Feels like we're talking about Josh Allen all over again. I hated Josh Allen in 2018, and I loved Josh Rosen. lol

Yeah QBs very hard to extrapolate college performance to pros. My most downvoted post to date (lot of competition lol) was when I called Rosen “undraftable.”

I thought Darnold was a slam dunk stud though.

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is basically the @Jetsfan80 approach. QB so difficult to scout, draft the physical freaks and hope for the best.

Problem is too many teams are going this route now which pushes Richardson into a top 5 pick slot.  

That’s simply too high a price for a guy who had such ridiculous struggles playing the position at the collegiate level.  I’d only be willing to pull the trigger on a guy like him no earlier than pick 18 or so.  

[jgb]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The knock on Herbert was that he was a nerdy, introverted personality with no alpha traits. 

Minshew led FBS in completion percentage and was like a top 5 guy in yards and TDs and oozes machismo. Hope he gets a shot this year.

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is basically the @Jetsfan80 approach. QB so difficult to scout, draft the physical freaks and hope for the best.

I’d let someone else do that. I get that picking a QB is a less than 20% proposition, but give me the guy who at least showed he can produce against top competition and I’ll work from there. 

[jgb]

Just now, T0mShane said:

I’d let someone else do that. I get that picking a QB is a less than 20% proposition, but give me the guy who at least showed he can produce against top competition and I’ll work from there. 

Yeah I’m more in your camp. I can see the wisdom in JF’s approach, however.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Problem is too many teams are going this route now which pushes Richardson into a top 5 pick slot.  

That’s simply too high a price for a guy who had such ridiculous struggles playing the position at the collegiate level.  I’d only be willing to pull the trigger on a guy like him no earlier than pick 18 or so.  

The Athletic’s Nate Tice just issued a fervent defense of Richardson as his QB1 and it hinged on the fact that Richardson rarely threw it short, which made his stats look worse. My thought was that drafting a guy that high who hasn’t shown proficiency making quick reads and getting the ball out is a recipe for disaster. Both Joe Burrow and Mahomes had a lower depth of target than Mike White last year. They guys at the top of that list were all bad or injured (Mariota, Fields, Tua, Josh Allen, etc).