Recent Success rate of 1st Round WRs (holy shnikies)

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

For the debate of how to help Rodgers the most.  I’ll do OTs next when I have a few minutes.

Is there a better first round success rate at any position?

A few things that are stand out

1. Success rate = 75% (excl J Williams due to injury, counts Dotson & Burks, does not count Tony & Bateman who can still turn it around)

2. List is littered with elite playmakers and true #1s

3. Most made significant year 1 contributions.  Even a lesser known rookie, Dotson, had 7 TDs for the Commanders in 12 games

4. Holy SEC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC (the latter has had several successful round 2 WRs)

——————————————————————-

WIDE RECEIVER
2022:  Wilson (Ohio State), Olave (Ohio State), London (USC), Williams (Alabama) -- injured, Dotson (PSU), Burks (Arkansas)

2021:  Chase (LSU), Waddle (Alabama), Smith (Alabama), Toney (Florida), Bateman (Minnesota)

2020:  Lamb (Oklahoma), Jeudy (Alabama), Jefferson (LSU), Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Bust:  Reagor (TCU)

Prison:  Ruggs (Alabama)

2019:  Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

Bust:  Harry (Arizona State)

2018:  DJ Moore (Maryland), Ridley (Alabama)

[dbatesman]

40 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Prison:  Ruggs

this made me legit LOL

[chirorob]

It's also a good reason to draft, as WR are now making 25+ per year, so having a very good to elite WR on a rookie deal saves huge money.

That's a problem with drafting a TE early, their salaries aren't nearly as high, so the savings isn't as great.

[derp]

Not sure if Jeudy is a hit, but it’s definitely been bananas recently. Think these guys get more reps at stuff that translates to the NFL than other positions where it used to be the other way around. Curious how long it takes for folks to come around to it being a safe position to draft - or if it reverts.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

For the debate of how to help Rodgers the most.  I’ll do OTs next when I have a few minutes.

Is there a better first round success rate at any position?

A few things that are stand out

1. Success rate = 75% (excl J Williams due to injury, counts Dotson & Burks, does not count Tony & Bateman who can still turn it around)

2. List is littered with elite playmakers and true #1s

3. Most made significant year 1 contributions.  Even a lesser known rookie, Dotson, had 7 TDs for the Commanders in 12 games

4. Holy SEC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC (the latter has had several successful round 2 WRs)

——————————————————————-

 

WIDE RECEIVER
2022:  Wilson (Ohio State), Olave (Ohio State), London (USC), Williams (Alabama) -- injured, Dotson (PSU), Burks (Arkansas)

2021:  Chase (LSU), Waddle (Alabama), Smith (Alabama), Toney (Florida), Bateman (Minnesota)

2020:  Lamb (Oklahoma), Jeudy (Alabama), Jefferson (LSU), Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Bust:  Reagor (TCU)

Prison:  Ruggs (Alabama)

2019:  Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

Bust:  Harry (Arizona State)

2018:  DJ Moore (Maryland), Ridley (Alabama)

For a while, it seemed like first round WRs were really bad bets.  There was a string of top 10 busts until recent years.  Kevin White, David Terrell, John Ross, Charles Rogers, Darius Heyward-Bey, Justin Blackmon, Tavon Austin.  Even guys who had nice careers like Corey Davis, Ted Ginn, Sammy Watkins did not live up to their top 10 draft status.  There were some great top 10 picks like Julio, Fitz, AJ Green, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, but seemed like a lot more misses than hits. 

That has certainly turned around in the last few years.   Just glad we finally got in on the action last year.

[CanadaSteve]

I think Ruggs would have been another 1st round success if it wasn't for the whole prison thing.  

[Bobby816]

So glad we finally spent a 1st on a War last year. Been screaming for one for a decade. With countless people saying 2 things.

1. you don’t need a #1 WR to win. These people liked just referring back to NE as there basis behind this.

2. Star WRs can be found in the mid rounds. Which is true for any position. So the logic there never made sense to me. Based on that logic just trade away all your early picks and stack up on mid rounders bc guys can be found there.

[T0mShane]

21 minutes ago, derp said:

Not sure if Jeudy is a hit, but it’s definitely been bananas recently. Think these guys get more reps at stuff that translates to the NFL than other positions where it used to be the other way around. Curious how long it takes for folks to come around to it being a safe position to draft - or if it reverts.

The downfield contact rules changing in favor of the offense has been a literal game-changer for a lot of these guys, too. 

[derp]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The downfield contact rules changing in favor of the offense has been a literal game-changer for a lot of these guys, too. 

It’s completely changed the archetype that works well, and NFL teams are kind of catching up to that and drafting guys who translate better early on.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1. Only 5 Offensive Tackles have hit the ground running at an above average level:  Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Wirfs, McGlinchey.  Sewell, Slater and Wirfs were immediate studs with Darrisaw & McGlinchey not far behind. 

2. The success rate throwing out the 2022 class (too early to tell across the board-- some good, some bad) comes in at 56%.

3. If the Jets want the highest probability of year 1 impact and long term success, they go WR in the first round all else equal ... which we know it's not.  They might have the OTs graded much higher or conversely they might view WR as the bigger year 1 hole.  They might instead decide to acquire Hopkins  

 

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

2022:  Ekwonu (NC St), Neal (Alabama), Cross (Mississippi St), Penning (Northern Iowa), Smith (Tulsa)

Can't call anyone a stud (or even an average starter) yet but some promising work from Ekwonu, Cross and Smith who each let up between 6-7 sacks but averaged over 10 penalties.  Neal off to a very rough start, Penning was injured and played little upon his return

2021:  Sewell (Oregon), Slater (Northwestern), Darrisaw (Virginia Tech), Leatherwood (Alabama)

Bust:  Leatherwood who was waived by the Raiders after 1 year

2020:  Thomas (Georgia), Willis (Alabama), Becton (Louisville), Wirfs (Iowa), Jackson (USC), Wilson (Georgia)

I would not call Willis or Jackson a success despite starting (consistently grading below average by PFF)

Bust:  Wilson has already been waived by Tennessee & Miami

2019:  Williams (Alabama), Dillard (Washington State), Howard (Alabama State), McGary (Washington)

The Bengals have already decided to upgrade from Jonah Williams.  It's taken 4 years for Howard to be considered an average to above average tackle.  Similarly, it took McGary -- Falcons -- until his 4th year to become a top tackle 

Bust:  Andre Dillard couldn't stay healthy for the Eagles and now is an injury prone guard for the Titans

2018:  McGlinchey (Notre Dame), Miller (UCLA)

 

[Barton]

Playmaker at 13. JSN or Addison. Oline 2nd and 4th rd. You don’t need 3 top 20 picks to build an Oline. Thats amateur nonsense. Figure it out JD. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

1 hour ago, derp said:

Not sure if Jeudy is a hit, but it’s definitely been bananas recently. Think these guys get more reps at stuff that translates to the NFL than other positions where it used to be the other way around. Curious how long it takes for folks to come around to it being a safe position to draft - or if it reverts.

He might not be the grand slam some on the list are, but I consider him a hit, defined by me as a very good to elite starter.  He caught 68 out of 100 targets last year.  That seems very good to me and he continues to get better.  

Jeudy's 2022 stats 

67 receptions

972 yards

6 TDs

 

[Lupz27]

9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The downfield contact rules changing in favor of the offense has been a literal game-changer for a lot of these guys, too. 

Yeah I remember when the magic number for WR’s was the age 27 and/or year 3.

It was very rare for a WR to make an instant impact very rare.

I have to agree the pussification of the rules has changed this.

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Yeah I remember when the magic number for WR’s was the age 27 and/or year 3.

It was very rare for a WR to make an instant impact very rare.

I have to agree the pussification of the rules has changed this.

I remember going to Giants training camp up in Albany 20 years ago and watching the WR/CB one on ones. The amount of contact that was going on with DBs trying to knock the receivers off their patterns was sick. It looked like trying to advance the puck up the boards in ice hockey. 

[varjet]

It has appeared to me that selecting a WR at 13 was the value play.   

With the changes to the Rules (as noted above), having better athletes attracted to the position for $ and having them better coached at the top schools, WR has been clearly the position that can have the most impact 10-20.  I would think teams adapt to that.  

It is very hard to get top WRs in FA for a fair price.  Same with OT.  

The Jets could likely find a developmental OT in the 2nd round.   My guess is that the decent OTs are going by 13, and even they will require some development.  From a cap perspective, drafting a WR at 13 who will cost $5mm x 4 years, plus the 5Yr Option, and Corey Davis, at $10mm and not signed next year, can move on, maybe even as part of the AR trade.  

[Barton]

What a whiff on orlando brown. Better get another veteran offensive tackle in here.

[Lupz27]

15 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I remember going to Giants training camp up in Albany 20 years ago and watching the WR/CB one on ones. The amount of contact that was going on with DBs trying to knock the receivers off their patterns was sick. It looked like trying to advance the puck up the boards in ice hockey. 

As it should.  Sports is about competition.

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

I’ll never forget the impact having 2 stud WRs had on Tua’s development.  He went from a good QB to being named in early MVP discussions.  Hurts took a HUGE step this year when they traded for Brown to pair with Smith.  

Why is this important?  Pairing Garrett with another stud helps Rodgers but I believe it immensely helps a young QB post Rodgers. As long as we have average offensive tackles in pass protection, something that should be achievable to find in the draft.

[Barton]

2 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I’ll never forget the impact having 2 stud WRs had on Tua’s development.  He went from a good QB to being named in early MVP discussions.  Hurts took a HUGE step this year when they traded for Brown to pair with Smith.  

Why is this important?  Pairing Garrett with another stud helps Rodgers but I believe it immensely helps a young QB post Rodgers. As long as we have average offensive tackles in pass protection, something that should be achievable to find in the draft.

Yupppppp. Imagine if Wilson gets hurt too. Rodgers will be throwing to a bunch of scrubs. 

[Larz]

Johnston?  Maybe ? 

[jetstream23]

I really think an OT would be a good investment at #13 especially if Paris Johnson is there, but I'd be open to taking the first WR off the board.  With Elijah Moore gone, Corey Davis going (if not this year then next year), and Mecole Hardman on a 1 year deal I think it makes absolute sense.  You also get that 5th year option and if things continue to go well for Garrett Wilson then he may become very, very expensive in a few years and it would be nice to have another good young WR a year behind him contractually.

DT should also be a consideration at #13 but we're about to throw a BRINKS truck of money at QW.  I think the Jets would be smarter to go with a run-stopping DT later in the Draft.  OT or WR seems like the right move at #13 this year.  There should be options.

[Beerfish]

7 hours ago, Barton said:

What a whiff on orlando brown. Better get another veteran offensive tackle in here.

I recall in this guys draft year when he started to fall half our forum were begging McCagnan to draft him.   Instead he drafted nathan sheppard.

[Jimmy 2 Times]

The pick has always been receiver.  Then keep taking one every 2-3 years. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

I’m always in favor of drafting offensive weapons. Score points baby. 

[TuscanyTile2]

21 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Only 5 Offensive Tackles have hit the ground running at an above average level:  Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Wirfs, McGlinchey.  Sewell, Slater and Wirfs were immediate studs with Darrisaw & McGlinchey not far behind. 

2. The success rate throwing out the 2022 class (too early to tell across the board-- some good, some bad) comes in at 56%.

3. If the Jets want the highest probability of year 1 impact and long term success, they go WR in the first round all else equal ... which we know it's not.  They might have the OTs graded much higher or conversely they might view WR as the bigger year 1 hole.  They might instead decide to acquire Hopkins  

 

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

2022:  Ekwonu (NC St), Neal (Alabama), Cross (Mississippi St), Penning (Northern Iowa), Smith (Tulsa)

Can't call anyone a stud (or even an average starter) yet but some promising work from Ekwonu, Cross and Smith who each let up between 6-7 sacks but averaged over 10 penalties.  Neal off to a very rough start, Penning was injured and played little upon his return

2021:  Sewell (Oregon), Slater (Northwestern), Darrisaw (Virginia Tech), Leatherwood (Alabama)

Bust:  Leatherwood who was waived by the Raiders after 1 year

2020:  Thomas (Georgia), Willis (Alabama), Becton (Louisville), Wirfs (Iowa), Jackson (USC), Wilson (Georgia)

I would not call Willis or Jackson a success despite starting (consistently grading below average by PFF)

Bust:  Wilson has already been waived by Tennessee & Miami

2019:  Williams (Alabama), Dillard (Washington State), Howard (Alabama State), McGary (Washington)

The Bengals have already decided to upgrade from Jonah Williams.  It's taken 4 years for Howard to be considered an average to above average tackle.  Similarly, it took McGary -- Falcons -- until his 4th year to become a top tackle 

Bust:  Andre Dillard couldn't stay healthy for the Eagles and now is an injury prone guard for the Titans

2018:  McGlinchey (Notre Dame), Miller (UCLA)

 

Are you a follower of OL play?  Out of curiosity, how did Daniel Faalele do last year (if you know)?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Are you a follower of OL play?  Out of curiosity, how did Daniel Faalele do last year (if you know)?

That's the big guy the Ravens drafted in the same round the Jets drafted Mitchell ...

I'd be lying if I told you I watched him closely but 4 sacks in 169 snaps is NOT good.  That would extrapolate to 25 sacks per season.  From what I remember, he's a huge guy (pushing 400 pounds) who needed to reshape his body so 2022 was not the year he was going to be ready.  I can imagine this guy being a dominant run blocker so if he can get more agile by reshaping his body, seems like he can have a bright future as a RT at 6'8" with long arms.

Mitchell on the other hand, allowed 3 sacks in 341 reps.  I remember all 3:

1. Good pass pro, Zach held onto the ball to long and stepped up right into the sack

2. Pretty good pass pro as he guided the Edge out wide, Flacco dropped back a bit too deep and was strip sacked by an outstretched hand on the way by

3. After he came back from injury, a bad sack in the same game he exited and we later learned he was out for the season due to a blood clot 

Very high on Mitchell because last year was supposed to be a 'get stronger' year.  I personally believe he's going to be a very good pass protector on the right side because he's nimble on his feet, is smart, and has good technique.  

[Chrebetfan80]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:00 AM, Lith said:

For a while, it seemed like first round WRs were really bad bets.  There was a string of top 10 busts until recent years.  Kevin White, David Terrell, John Ross, Charles Rogers, Darius Heyward-Bey, Justin Blackmon, Tavon Austin.  Even guys who had nice careers like Corey Davis, Ted Ginn, Sammy Watkins did not live up to their top 10 draft status.  There were some great top 10 picks like Julio, Fitz, AJ Green, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, but seemed like a lot more misses than hits. 

That has certainly turned around in the last few years.   Just glad we finally got in on the action last year.

credit the rise, in 7v7 culture and mainstream WR movement coaches.  With social media now, guys from all over the country are able to be exposed to top WR coaches, and these guys have opened their client base up to alot of them.  Anyone can go too, not just pro guys or top college guys.  Some of the top trainers in the country travel around and just do 3 -4 day camps in different states.  

I had one of the top guys last year come out to the HS and work with a few kids while he was down here with some of the Giants players.  Kids are just getting so many high level reps earlier on now a days and route running has gotten so much better as a result.  

[PepPep]

when there was a good WR draft, the 1st round WRs have been good lately. 

This year the WR draft is deep but not very top heavy. Not a lot of elite prospects at the position, IMO. 

I am more than happy to wait until day two (or later) for a WR. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

3 hours ago, PepPep said:

when there was a good WR draft, the 1st round WRs have been good lately. 

This year the WR draft is deep but not very top heavy. Not a lot of elite prospects at the position, IMO. 

I am more than happy to wait until day two (or later) for a WR. 

Same exact thing was said last year and I’m glad the Jets didn’t take that strategy. 

[Jet2020]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:49 AM, chirorob said:

It's also a good reason to draft, as WR are now making 25+ per year, so having a very good to elite WR on a rookie deal saves huge money.

That's a problem with drafting a TE early, their salaries aren't nearly as high, so the savings isn't as great.

This. That’s why I think going after DHop is a mistake. Rather get a roomie WR that we know will be here 4 years if he pans out plus it’s cheap. DHop still has gas but he’s not playing 4 more years at an elite level. 

[Paradis]

On 4/15/2023 at 6:47 AM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

For the debate of how to help Rodgers the most.  I’ll do OTs next when I have a few minutes.

Is there a better first round success rate at any position?

A few things that are stand out

1. Success rate = 75% (excl J Williams due to injury, counts Dotson & Burks, does not count Tony & Bateman who can still turn it around)

2. List is littered with elite playmakers and true #1s

3. Most made significant year 1 contributions.  Even a lesser known rookie, Dotson, had 7 TDs for the Commanders in 12 games

4. Holy SEC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC (the latter has had several successful round 2 WRs)

——————————————————————-

 

WIDE RECEIVER
2022:  Wilson (Ohio State), Olave (Ohio State), London (USC), Williams (Alabama) -- injured, Dotson (PSU), Burks (Arkansas)

2021:  Chase (LSU), Waddle (Alabama), Smith (Alabama), Toney (Florida), Bateman (Minnesota)

2020:  Lamb (Oklahoma), Jeudy (Alabama), Jefferson (LSU), Aiyuk (Arizona State)

Bust:  Reagor (TCU)

Prison:  Ruggs (Alabama)

2019:  Marquise Brown (Oklahoma)

Bust:  Harry (Arizona State)

2018:  DJ Moore (Maryland), Ridley (Alabama)

Only WRs I openly lobbied against during this stretch; Reagor, Harry, Toney and Bateman

#FactsBitches 

[PepPep]

17 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Same exact thing was said last year and I’m glad the Jets didn’t take that strategy. 

I mean, its a top heavy draft, IMO, meaning there ARE good receivers in the top of the draft. So if you are positioned to take one of those guys, go ahead and take him. The Jets were positioned to take arguably the TOP receiver in last year's draft. That is not quite the case this year. And their need is not as dire (depending on what happens to Davis). Maybe Smith-Njigba is there at 13. But that is not the same caliber of prospect that Wilson was, IMO. 

If the Jets were outside of that 'top WR' range, I would be fine with them taking a different approach and passing on a WR in Rd. 1 last year. And remember, there are good WR in Rd. 2 as well. Last year Pickens and C.Watson were Rd. 2 guys.   

[varjet]

21 hours ago, PepPep said:

I mean, its a top heavy draft, IMO, meaning there ARE good receivers in the top of the draft. So if you are positioned to take one of those guys, go ahead and take him. The Jets were positioned to take arguably the TOP receiver in last year's draft. That is not quite the case this year. And their need is not as dire (depending on what happens to Davis). Maybe Smith-Njigba is there at 13. But that is not the same caliber of prospect that Wilson was, IMO. 

If the Jets were outside of that 'top WR' range, I would be fine with them taking a different approach and passing on a WR in Rd. 1 last year. And remember, there are good WR in Rd. 2 as well. Last year Pickens and C.Watson were Rd. 2 guys.   

Although a controversial subject, the Jets may be in a position to pick at 13 a 5 year FS.  We currently do not have a FS.  Jessie Bates got paid a lot of money. 

[Bobby816]

5 minutes ago, varjet said:

Although a controversial subject, the Jets may be in a position to pick at 13 a 5 year FS.  We currently do not have a FS.  Jessie Bates got paid a lot of money. 

When has JD showed he values S enough to spend an asset like that on a S?

[Balls Mahoney]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:23 AM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Only 5 Offensive Tackles have hit the ground running at an above average level:  Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, Wirfs, McGlinchey.  Sewell, Slater and Wirfs were immediate studs with Darrisaw & McGlinchey not far behind. 

2. The success rate throwing out the 2022 class (too early to tell across the board-- some good, some bad) comes in at 56%.

3. If the Jets want the highest probability of year 1 impact and long term success, they go WR in the first round all else equal ... which we know it's not.  They might have the OTs graded much higher or conversely they might view WR as the bigger year 1 hole.  They might instead decide to acquire Hopkins  

 

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

2022:  Ekwonu (NC St), Neal (Alabama), Cross (Mississippi St), Penning (Northern Iowa), Smith (Tulsa)

Can't call anyone a stud (or even an average starter) yet but some promising work from Ekwonu, Cross and Smith who each let up between 6-7 sacks but averaged over 10 penalties.  Neal off to a very rough start, Penning was injured and played little upon his return

2021:  Sewell (Oregon), Slater (Northwestern), Darrisaw (Virginia Tech), Leatherwood (Alabama)

Bust:  Leatherwood who was waived by the Raiders after 1 year

2020:  Thomas (Georgia), Willis (Alabama), Becton (Louisville), Wirfs (Iowa), Jackson (USC), Wilson (Georgia)

I would not call Willis or Jackson a success despite starting (consistently grading below average by PFF)

Bust:  Wilson has already been waived by Tennessee & Miami

2019:  Williams (Alabama), Dillard (Washington State), Howard (Alabama State), McGary (Washington)

The Bengals have already decided to upgrade from Jonah Williams.  It's taken 4 years for Howard to be considered an average to above average tackle.  Similarly, it took McGary -- Falcons -- until his 4th year to become a top tackle 

Bust:  Andre Dillard couldn't stay healthy for the Eagles and now is an injury prone guard for the Titans

2018:  McGlinchey (Notre Dame), Miller (UCLA)

 

Penei Sewell is terrible what are you talking about