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Former NFL GM Offers Theory as to why Aaron Rodgers to Jets has yet to be Made Official


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Joe Douglas

While Jets fans, Packers fans, NFL insiders and pundits continue to wait for Joe Douglas to make Aaron Rodgers to the Jets a reality, there have been plenty of theories as to why the deal has been held up for as long as it has.  Douglas has made it clear that he expects Rodgers to be a Jet, but of course no details as to where the teams are in the process.

Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports has been one of the few voices claiming to have some details of the world’s slowest transpiring transaction, claiming Jets owner Woody Johnson doesn’t want to give the Packers a guaranteed round 1 pick in the 2024 draft.  This of course would be to protect against catastrophe.

We just saw what happened to the Denver Broncos who traded a first-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for quarterback Russell Wilson.  In making the deal, the Broncos clearly believed that pick would be in the late 20’s or early 30’s.  However, things didn’t go according to plan and the Broncos gave up a pick that is now fifth overall.  You can’t blame Johnson for wanting to avoid such a scenario.

Now a former GM has weighed in and offered  a simple solution as Rick Spielman, former general manager of the Minnesota Vikings said on CBS Sports’ With the First Pick podcast that the teams are waiting to make a draft night splash.

Speaking on "With the first pick" pod on what could be holding up @nyjets & @packers deal, former Vikings GM @Spielman_rick believes it's a case of waiting for a "draft night splash" and compares it to the Eagles draft day trades last season, saying "Just like Philly did".

— Glenn Naughton (@AceFan23) April 15, 2023

It wouldn’t be the first time a team waited until the last minute to complete a trade, and the NFL sure doesn’t mind letting the drama drag on as the move keeps the league in the headlines.

Hang in there, Jets fans.  Less than two weeks until draft day and this thing gets resolved…or so we hope.

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especially with a team that had such a volatile season, holding out for a better deal should be a no-brainer. The offseason is longer than a week, my friends. This trade could theoretically hold out all the way to week 1 if that's what it took to get the right deal done.

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When this started to drag out after the McAfee show I thought it could be the league asking the teams to "keep things quiet" to keep the story in the headlines.  But as it dragged on, I didn't think there was any way they'd drag this thing on for six or seven weeks.  

Spielman was almost laughing when he made his comment as if he thought it was pretty obvious what was going on.

Not sure I agree, but the first time I've heard a former GM offer this explanation.

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I wonder if there is an element of seeing how the draft plays out and how it might affect available compensation.

E.g. we end up trading down in round one, far enough that we pick up an extra first next year. With two firsts next year we can be more flexible with what we offer GB, while still having a first round pick in 2024.

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Makes sense. The Packers can use the distraction at the draft to break it to their Rust Belt flunky fan base that they lost Rodgers for a couple of twos: “Ooh, we drafted a fancy tight end in the first round AND now we have another second rounder?? AND WE GET COREY DAVIS TOO?! That’s basically like getting three first round picks!” 

Can't remember where or when (because I spend way too much time talking about this team) but had the exact same thought.  Packers fans can be mad about the compensation for a few minutes before they announce their next pick who will probably be an offensive play maker so they can start thinking about their new QB having weapons.

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I kind of wonder if it drags to after the draft. Think Douglas wants 2023 picks to put guys around Rodgers and Packers want to put guys around Love. Jets picks this year are hopefully higher than they’ll be next.

We’ve seen him win trades before. Think he’s got a lowball offer on the table now.

It’s easier to build Rodgers continuing to play contingencies around a trade with 2024 and 2025 picks too.

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2 hours ago, jamesr said:

I wonder if there is an element of seeing how the draft plays out and how it might affect available compensation.

E.g. we end up trading down in round one, far enough that we pick up an extra first next year. With two firsts next year we can be more flexible with what we offer GB, while still having a first round pick in 2024.

Nailed it!

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2 hours ago, AFJF said:

Can't remember where or when (because I spend way too much time talking about this team) but had the exact same thought.  Packers fans can be mad about the compensation for a few minutes before they announce their next pick who will probably be an offensive play maker so they can start thinking about their new QB having weapons.

Yeah, it’s a different sell when it’s just an abstract “second round pick” versus when you can put a name to that pick and it’s some (sh*tty) linebacker or receiver that Todd McShay has been talking up for a few weeks. It’s like that Uncle Rico scene where he pulls out the model sailboat to close the tupperware sale.

 

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The deal has been agreed upon and signed by both teams. The NFL hasn’t approved it yet, citing high fan base interest and draft day drama. Every Packer and Jet fan will be watching every bit of the draft, even the ones jumping off the Packers bandwagon to join the Jets BW. 

That’s my theory. And it makes sense. That’s why JD straight up said Aaron is coming, without the hesitation or fear of getting accused of tampering. Even when you have permission to discuss trade, you can not claim a player is coming here. You can claim we are interested and working on a deal to get him here. Unless a deal is already in place. So hang tight, AR will be in NY days before the draft and that would be the dead giveaway. He’ll be partying in Manhattan next weekend. 

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2 hours ago, Jet2020 said:

The deal has been agreed upon and signed by both teams. The NFL hasn’t approved it yet, citing high fan base interest and draft day drama. Every Packer and Jet fan will be watching every bit of the draft, even the ones jumping off the Packers bandwagon to join the Jets BW. 

That’s my theory. And it makes sense. That’s why JD straight up said Aaron is coming, without the hesitation or fear of getting accused of tampering. Even when you have permission to discuss trade, you can not claim a player is coming here. You can claim we are interested and working on a deal to get him here. Unless a deal is already in place. So hang tight, AR will be in NY days before the draft and that would be the dead giveaway. He’ll be partying in Manhattan next weekend. 

You bring up an interesting point. I was reading up on the ramifications of what Joe D said at the WFAN party. Green Bay (or the NFL) did have a case, if they wanted to go there, to accuse the Jets of tampering. This goes beyond the scope of the meeting in California.  They were given permission to meet with him. They weren’t given permission to later talk like he is already on the team, prior to the deal getting done. The Packers could have reported the Jets or the NFL could have began to look into it. They didn’t. So everyone saying the Jets and Packers haven’t spoken for weeks and they are far apart, have no idea and are just speculating because nothing has happened. And nothing will happen.
 

Here is my view, fwiw. The Jets and Packers have an agreement in principle, enough so that the league office would not go forward with a tampering case, even without Green Bay’s accusations. The deal is done. There are draft day scenarios that have been discussed either allowing a swap of 1s this year or something in the 2nd round, but it will all come together once Green Bay sees what is still on the board at 13. Beyond that, if there is nothing of interest, the Jets will give them 42 or 43 and a conditional 2nd next year, possibly increasing to a 1st.  I am sure some Jets fans might think that’s too much for Rodgers. 

Thats my theory. Nothing earth shattering, but it makes the most sense. If the Packers had any inclination that a deal wasn’t getting done or another team was involved, they would have reported the Jets for tampering. That cannot be done now. It would have had to have been reported the league office within 48 hours of the alleged tampering, or like I said, the league would have had to start an investigation. That hasn’t happened. Beyond that, it’s just words. Those words that JD was comfortable enough to say in public, assuring Jets fans that Aaron Rodgers would be here.  

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The deal hasn’t happened because the Jets and GB are pretty far apart on value.   
And at this point there’s no upside for GB to trade him before the draft. 
There is, although, obvious downside if he’s not traded before the draft.  I suspect a day or two before the draft it’ll happen.  

it’s not some create drama conspiracy. 

 

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If the deal does go through even if it goes through very late, say somewhere in preseason, I am sure that the brains trust will argue that with a veteran like Rogers, that offseason activities are less important.

But I wonder about that, especially if we only get him for a year or two anyway.  At what point does it impact his value to the Jets if he is not in uniform practicing with the team?  If you agree with me that the risk of bad outcomes goes up with the passing of time then his value would correspondingly go down.

So the questions are how much and how soon does his value to this team go down?

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15 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

I'm sure I'm not the only one but I've been saying for months that I don't expect the trade to happen until Draft night.  There are so many what-ifs and complexities involved, namely the unknowns of who will be on the Board when the Jets draft at both 13 and then again in the 2nd round.  I think it could even be something as simple as waiting until the #13 pick arrives (with the Packers at #15).  If the Jets have 3, 4, even 5 guys they like available to them at 13 but the Packers are salivating over a player on the Board then a swap of 13 for 15, in conjunction with some other compensation like a 2024 2nd Rounder, etc. could make it happen.

Why would any team do any kind of trade involving current year Draft capital without knowing who will be on the Board when they're on the clock?  Remember how shocked the Jets were that Jermaine Johnson slipped last year.  They came back up to get him.

Similar with Round 2.  The Jets now have back-to-back picks there.  Why would they trade one of them to the Packers TODAY without knowing who will be available to them.  What if a Top 30 guy somehow falls to #42?

I think the deal gets done on Draft night. 

Really like the 13 to 15 swap with the Packers. BUT guess who picks 14? The Pats. And they have their eyes on a Tackle as well. Would hate to lose the tackle JD is set on to them. It Would get us back our 3rd round pick we lost in trading Moore and just shows some flexibility to work with Packets in getting this thing done. Throw in a #2 and it’s shinier. Throw in some players, what the heck, Cb Hall, S Davis, WR Davis and just make it a monster trade with GB sending someone Aaron must have. 

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41 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

This is going to drag until camp because it’s the Jets. Feels highly unlikely now it gets done before or during the draft. 

Why on earth or how on Jupiter would it get done AFTER the draft and not during? Packers would lose opportunities to improve their roster NOW and have the benefit of extra picks in this draft. Waiting to get picks in 2024 just lessens their chance of getting a higher 2nd rounder since we’d be poised to pick later in the round rather than in the top half of it. And the whole purpose of trading Moore to get that extra 2nd, was to hand it over to the Pack. No reason not to get this done by draft night. JD cannot wait all of season to get a QB. Woody would break JD like a pretzel ? 

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24 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

Why on earth or how on Jupiter would it get done AFTER the draft and not during? Packers would lose opportunities to improve their roster NOW and have the benefit of extra picks in this draft. Waiting to get picks in 2024 just lessens their chance of getting a higher 2nd rounder since we’d be poised to pick later in the round rather than in the top half of it. And the whole purpose of trading Moore to get that extra 2nd, was to hand it over to the Pack. No reason not to get this done by draft night. JD cannot wait all of season to get a QB. Woody would break JD like a pretzel ? 

Brace yourself for Zach Wilson taking 1st team snaps on Hard Knocks this summer 

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