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3 NY Jets draft targets whose production doesn’t match the hype


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https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/04/21/ny-jets-draft-production-hype/

Good article by Nania. I’ll paste part of the article, but he deserves having the “click” for his work. JMS review posted below. PAris Johnson and Drew Sanders will need to be read at JetsXFactor.
 

 

These potential New York Jets draft targets don't have the statistical production to back up their hype in the draft community.

 

Some of the New York Jets’ top draft targets have concerning statistics relative to their hype

Analyzing college production cannot tell us everything about an NFL draft prospect’s professional future, but it’s still a valuable piece of the puzzle to take into account.

I don’t think college production can tell us much about a prospect’s future if the prospect was a dominant college player, simply because the majority of NFL draft prospects were stars in college. Boasting otherworldly college stats doesn’t make a prospect unique.

What does make a prospect unique is when he wasn’t dominant in college. This is where I think college stats can be an interesting factor. If a prospect wasn’t able to dominate his college-level opponents, it’s certainly a concern worth noting as we project how he will perform against the substantially stronger competition offered by the NFL. It could be a sign the player will take longer to develop than prospects who have already shown they can translate their traits into star-level production.

With this in mind, here are a few oft-discussed NFL draft targets for the New York Jets whose college production does not match up with their hype.

John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz is the consensus No. 1 center prospect on draft boards across the internet. He is widely considered a high-second-round prospect (right in the Jets’ wheelhouse at Nos. 42 and 43) and some mock drafts even have him creeping into the first round. 

Schmitz’s hype is not backed up by his college production. He was not one of the most dominant centers in college football last season, at least based on his numbers.

In 2022, Schmitz allowed eight pressures on 305 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus. That might seem good at first glance, but relative to other college centers, it actually wasn’t. Schmitz’s allowed pressure rate of 2.65% only ranked 61st-lowest out of 136 qualified FBS centers (56th percentile). That’s hardly better than the national average of 3.17% for centers.

Some of the other top center prospects in the 2023 draft were much more efficient pass-blockers than Schmitz this past season:

  • Joe Tippman, Wisconsin: 1.39% allowed pressure rate, 11th of 136
  • Luke Wypler, Ohio State: 1.78% allowed pressure rate, 19th
  • Olusegun Oluwatimi, Michigan: 2.20% allowed pressure rate, 38th

Schmitz offers a much stronger track record in the run game, as he was PFF’s top-ranked run-blocking center among all college centers in 2022. However, his less-than-stellar pass-blocking efficiency is worth keeping in mind.

It also should be noted that Schmitz’s athletic profile isn’t special. His Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is 7.89 out of 10, which only ranked seventh-best among centers in this year’s class.

Schmitz’s pedestrian score mostly stems from his 5.35-second time in the forty (25th percentile all-time among centers at the combine) and his 26 reps in the bench press (51st percentile). Schmitz performed respectably in the 20-yard shuttle (68th percentile), vertical jump (68th percentile), and broad jump (62nd percentile) but did not surpass the 68th percentile in any drill, which is underwhelming since he is an undersized center (301-pound frame ranked at the 38th percentile) and should be expected to balance out his smaller frame with top-tier athleticism. Overall, Schmitz’s uninspiring analytical profile (outside of his fantastic run-blocking) is a minor red flag that shouldn’t be completely ignored.
 

 

 

 

 

 

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I will be underwhelmed if they take JMS. Know it’s a need. Really think Tippmann is a significantly better prospect. 

Johnson needs a little polishing, but he’s a young guy who plays a premium position and was playing it for the first time in college last year. It’s not ideal and I think he’ll be overdrafted relative to where he’d go previous years, but it’d be fine. Don’t know if he’ll be on the board though.

At this point JMS is 24 and has played center for a while. The trade down and take him in the first round talk with him is bonkers. There’s a reason most have him rated as a mid second to early third round guy. 

Draft time is always frustrating because folks just assume you draft a position and it’s an upgrade and there’s so much more nuance to the process. Applies to pretty much all the OL this year.

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41 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

There is no way the Jets are putting a rookie center in front of Aaron Rodgers.  None.  

GB started Myers when Hackett was there in ‘21 

“Myers was named the Packers starting center as a rookie, replacing All-Pro center Corey Linsleywho had left for the Los Angeles Chargers. Myers started five games before suffering a knee injury in Week 6. He was placed on injured reserve on October 23, 2021” 

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A direct comparative of the 3 (4?) would be useful.

Each guys RAS results (omitted for anyone but JS it seems, unless I missed it).

Each guys rank in running (omitted for anyone but JS it seems, unless I missed it).

1 extra pressure over 4 games isn't deal making or deal breaking for me, and as I get told all the time, it's about future projection, not just college performance.

With that said, I'm somewhat ambivalent, I just want the very best Center we can possibly get.  If thats Tipp or Wypler, fine, get them.

Wypler is apparently a Jets Fan, so I'm surprised folks here aren't pining for him, lol.

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