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How does JD view Max Mitchell


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He just invested a 3rd into this guy a year ago.  He got significant playing time in year one which we weren't really expecting, and he seemed to hold his own until the blood clot issue.  Usually when we talk "development" OL picks, a 3rd rounder is the type of guy you ideally sit for a year and then give them a shot to start in year two.

 

I bring this up because it's been talked about as a forgone conclusion that we are going to go OL in the 1st or 2nd.  I've had this mindset too, but if JD is high on Max, does that change anything?  If you draft Darnell Wright, for example, that pretty much locks Mitchell in as a backup here long-term.  Especially if Becton stays healthy.  Brown is coming back so there's depth at LT.  Ogbuehi was brought back so there's depth at RT.  Is there a chance we're all wrong on this, and JD has no intention of going OL with one of these first two picks?

 

OR, if we do go OL, is there a chance that we, instead, go for a guy like O'Cyrus Torrence with the intention of moving Tomlinson to the bench, and we field a starting OL of Becton-AVT-McGovern-Torrence-Mitchell?  Not saying this is the way to go, but if JD is high on Max and sees him as part of the long-term plans here, I'm not so sure JD looks at OT as the obvious need that we all see it as.  Plus the versatility of AVT allows you to maybe target a guard here, see what Mitchell has, and if he struggles you can slide AVT over to RT and implement Tomlinson back into the lineup.

 

I think no matter what you need at least one more body on the depth chart at LT considering Becton's injury history, but not sure if that body has to be a 1st or 2nd rounder.   

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As was said, Mitchell was a fourth round pick.

They restructured Tomlinson to push more of his cap hit into next year and make him uncuttable this year. Barring a massive surprise, he’s starting and they’re not replacing him with a fourth round pick.

Realistically, they have three tackles on the roster right now (Mitchell, Becton, Brown) with one (Mitchell) signed for next year - Becton’s $13.5M option could be picked up too. I’d think the hope is that Mitchell can start at RT next year.

They also have effectively 22-24 players on next year’s roster with $185-$204M in cap liabilities (not including Quinnen Williams in either), five draft picks this year, five to eight draft picks next year (no first rounder, potentially three late compensatory picks) and no starting LT.

Would be prudent to have a rookie there instead of needing one in free agency next year (very hard to find) or during next year’s draft without a first round pick. Doesn’t need to be a first round pick, but it’d be surprising if they came out of the top two rounds without at least someone they think has a shot to take that job next year.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

As was said, Mitchell was a fourth round pick.

They restructured Tomlinson to push more of his cap hit into next year and make him uncuttable this year. Barring a massive surprise, he’s starting and they’re not replacing him with a fourth round pick.

Realistically, they have three tackles on the roster right now (Mitchell, Becton, Brown) with one (Mitchell) signed for next year - Becton’s $13.5M option could be picked up too. I’d think the hope is that Mitchell can start at RT next year.

They also have effectively 22-24 players on next year’s roster with $185-$204M in cap liabilities (not including Quinnen Williams in either), five draft picks this year, five to eight draft picks next year (no first rounder, potentially three late compensatory picks) and no starting LT.

Would be prudent to have a rookie there instead of needing one in free agency next year (very hard to find) or during next year’s draft without a first round pick. Doesn’t need to be a first round pick, but it’d be surprising if they came out of the top two rounds without at least someone they think has a shot to take that job next year.

 

4th rounder, my mistake.  Doesn't really change my thought process though, that's still right in that range of a pretty high future investment.

 

Still, I'm not sure you're spending a 1st on a guy for insurance since your 24 year old starting LT might not be around next year.  Maybe if you want to invest a 4th into that guy - a depth player in year one and a guy who could potentially develop into that replacement in year two, I'm all for it.  Becton would have zero impact on who I decide to take with either of my first two picks this year.  However if Becton stays healthy and has a Pro Bowl type season, there is zero chance JD lets him walk.  Just not gonna happen.  

 

Again though, if you want to draft your RT because you're not sold on Mitchell, or a OG to potentially take time from Tomlinson(in a year where it's Super Bowl or bust, I don't think his money should have any impact on his playing time considering how bad he's been to this point), that's completely fine.  But yeah, if they like Mitchell to the point of wanting to see him start this year, and like you said - they feel Tomlinson's cap number means he's starting - where is the hole on the OL?  There are depth needs for sure, but does that warrant spending a 1st or 2nd?  Especially in a year where we only have 5 picks, and especially taking into account we won't have a 1st next year.

 

Also isn't Ogbuehi an OT?  That would be 4 OTs then on the roster.  I'm not opposed to taking another, but if it's strictly depth and looking toward competing for a job in '24, that would be more in the 4th or 5th round range for me.  For example a Carter Warren type from Pitt, or Nick Saldiveri from Old Dominion.  Guys who can provide depth in year one and compete for that spot next season.  It then opens up your first two picks to maybe add another elite skill guy, be it Johnston, Addison, or one of the big TEs.  Either that or go defense heavy in the 1st and 2nd: maybe Kancey in the 1st and Trenton Simpson in the 2nd.  Try to solidify our D as the best in the league.  Go OT in the 4th, maybe try to find a Berrios replacement in the 5th.  Maybe a development C as well in the 5th.  

 

Not saying this is the route I want to go - I'm still leaning OL with one of the first two picks - just saying, if JD sees Mitchell as a guy who can start next season, that kinda changes how we should view the needs here.  

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13 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think they view mitchell as a potential swing tackle eventually.  

I’m more interested in how they view ruckert.  I bet they take a TE this draft

Every time I see a list of guys who are likely to be on the board when we pick at 15, it's always the TEs who stand out as the best players who would also fill a need.  The problem is the amount of bodies we already have locked up for '23.  If there is a way to make it work though I'd be all for it.  Adding an elite TE talent to this group of weapons for Rodgers would be huge.  

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We have 2 left tackles in Brown and Becton.  We have 2 right tackles in Mitchell and Becton.  We will take another 1 later in the draft.

We will not be going oline at 15.  It is not a need.  If we drafted a tackle at 15, he is sitting on the bench all year unless there is an injury. 

If JSN is there at 15 we will run to the podium.

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2 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Every time I see a list of guys who are likely to be on the board when we pick at 15, it's always the TEs who stand out as the best players who would also fill a need.  The problem is the amount of bodies we already have locked up for '23.  If there is a way to make it work though I'd be all for it.  Adding an elite TE talent to this group of weapons for Rodgers would be huge.  

It’s a deep te class. They can get one later on. 

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I think if JD were to be asked about him is answer would at 1st be just touching on his health.

Saying that Mitchell's health and well being is 1st and foremost as it is with all Jet players. So the team will do whatever is best for Mitchell health wise.

On the field he likely wants him to gain muscle and weight. He was always a project and got forced into action last year. He wasnt suppsoed to play. So having another full offseaosn to get reps and hopefulyl add size. Should be good for him.

 

I see him as a backup OT.

Lots can change in the next few days on who we draft as to where he is on the depth chart.

Moving back to 15 I do think Johnson, Sko and Jones are gone (if anyone of them are there draft one of them). And I do see us going Wright if that were to happen. Who is really just a RT. So that makes it Becton vs Brown pretty much at LT and Wright vs Brown at RT. Is Brown ok taking a backup role? Not sure. He can be cut post June 1st for cheap. Which then pits Mitchell as next man up at OT. Brown takes a backup role... and Mitchell is 4th now.

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1 minute ago, bonkertons said:

 

 

4th rounder, my mistake.  Doesn't really change my thought process though, that's still right in that range of a pretty high future investment.

 

Still, I'm not sure you're spending a 1st on a guy for insurance since your 24 year old starting LT might not be around next year.  Maybe if you want to invest a 4th into that guy - a depth player in year one and a guy who could potentially develop into that replacement in year two, I'm all for it.  Becton would have zero impact on who I decide to take with either of my first two picks this year.  However if Becton stays healthy and has a Pro Bowl type season, there is zero chance JD lets him walk.  Just not gonna happen.  

 

Again though, if you want to draft your RT because you're not sold on Mitchell, or a OG to potentially take time from Tomlinson(in a year where it's Super Bowl or bust, I don't think his money should have any impact on his playing time considering how bad he's been to this point), that's completely fine.  But yeah, if they like Mitchell to the point of wanting to see him start this year, and like you said - they feel Tomlinson's cap number means he's starting - where is the hole on the OL?  There are depth needs for sure, but does that warrant spending a 1st or 2nd?  Especially in a year where we only have 5 picks, and especially taking into account we won't have a 1st next year.

 

Also isn't Ogbuehi an OT?  That would be 4 OTs then on the roster.  I'm not opposed to taking another, but if it's strictly depth and looking toward competing for a job in '24, that would be more in the 4th or 5th round range for me.  For example a Carter Warren type from Pitt, or Nick Saldiveri from Old Dominion.  Guys who can provide depth in year one and compete for that spot next season.  It then opens up your first two picks to maybe add another elite skill guy, be it Johnston, Addison, or one of the big TEs.  Either that or go defense heavy in the 1st and 2nd: maybe Kancey in the 1st and Trenton Simpson in the 2nd.  Try to solidify our D as the best in the league.  Go OT in the 4th, maybe try to find a Berrios replacement in the 5th.  Maybe a development C as well in the 5th.  

 

Not saying this is the route I want to go - I'm still leaning OL with one of the first two picks - just saying, if JD sees Mitchell as a guy who can start next season, that kinda changes how we should view the needs here.  

So, I said in my post that I think the goal is probably for Mitchell to start at RT in 2024. I think a first round tackle and Mitchell are completely unrelated. I'm talking about drafting a LT to start in 2024, not a RT to start this year, whereas you seem kind of stuck on drafting a RT to start this year. I believe they've got Brown penciled in at LT and Becton at RT, just like they had last year.

Their mind is probably already made up regarding whether they want to pick up Becton's option for next year, since they have to do it pretty soon. So we don't necessarily know that Becton will be on next year's roster.

I don't think mid round picks are realistic bets to compete for a starting left tackle job in their second year. Tough position.

Ogbuehi is an OT, and I think is camp insurance, but far from a safe bet to be on the roster. Probably hope they can carry him on the practice squad. Also not signed in 2024.

I think the "bad case" if they take a tackle (2023 high draft pick is ready to start at LT in 2024, Becton shows out well, Mitchell is also a starting caliber player - they over-invested) is less of a problem than the bad case if they don't (Becton proves unreliable and they let him walk, at best Mitchell is the only starting caliber tackle on the roster). Worst case they can tag and move Becton for picks or something. 

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28 minutes ago, derp said:

As was said, Mitchell was a fourth round pick.

They restructured Tomlinson to push more of his cap hit into next year and make him uncuttable this year. Barring a massive surprise, he’s starting and they’re not replacing him with a fourth round pick.

Realistically, they have three tackles on the roster right now (Mitchell, Becton, Brown) with one (Mitchell) signed for next year - Becton’s $13.5M option could be picked up too. I’d think the hope is that Mitchell can start at RT next year.

They also have effectively 22-24 players on next year’s roster with $185-$204M in cap liabilities (not including Quinnen Williams in either), five draft picks this year, five to eight draft picks next year (no first rounder, potentially three late compensatory picks) and no starting LT.

Would be prudent to have a rookie there instead of needing one in free agency next year (very hard to find) or during next year’s draft without a first round pick. Doesn’t need to be a first round pick, but it’d be surprising if they came out of the top two rounds without at least someone they think has a shot to take that job next year.

We actually re-signed Cedric Ogbuehi who started a few games last year for us too. And don't forget AVT is always a backup option there as well.

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29 minutes ago, derp said:

As was said, Mitchell was a fourth round pick.

They restructured Tomlinson to push more of his cap hit into next year and make him uncuttable this year. Barring a massive surprise, he’s starting and they’re not replacing him with a fourth round pick.

Realistically, they have three tackles on the roster right now (Mitchell, Becton, Brown) with one (Mitchell) signed for next year - Becton’s $13.5M option could be picked up too. I’d think the hope is that Mitchell can start at RT next year.

They also have effectively 22-24 players on next year’s roster with $185-$204M in cap liabilities (not including Quinnen Williams in either), five draft picks this year, five to eight draft picks next year (no first rounder, potentially three late compensatory picks) and no starting LT.

Would be prudent to have a rookie there instead of needing one in free agency next year (very hard to find) or during next year’s draft without a first round pick. Doesn’t need to be a first round pick, but it’d be surprising if they came out of the top two rounds without at least someone they think has a shot to take that job next year.

They effectively have 43 players on the roster next year when you include RFA, ERFA and the 5 picks from this year. $58 million in cap space but that's assuming Rodgers will cost $32 million next year. I think the cost will be at least half of that. So $74 million with around 10 roster spots open, I think they'll be fine. 

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8 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

We actually re-signed Cedric Ogbuehi who started a few games last year for us too. And don't forget AVT is always a backup option there as well.

Again, mostly focused on the 2024 tackle situation. And I don't think Ogbuehi is a roster lock.

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9 minutes ago, choon328 said:

They effectively have 43 players on the roster next year when you include RFA, ERFA and the 5 picks from this year. $58 million in cap space but that's assuming Rodgers will cost $32 million next year. I think the cost will be at least half of that. So $74 million with around 10 roster spots open, I think they'll be fine. 

I think maybe two to four of the RFA's/ERFA's are roster worthy players, the 31 on the roster includes three with void years and four unlikely to be roster worthy players, and other guys (Mosley, Tomlinson) may get cut. It's definitely not 43 roster worthy players next year. Closer to 30 including this year's draft but before next year's draft.

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10 minutes ago, derp said:

So, I said in my post that I think the goal is probably for Mitchell to start at RT in 2024. I think a first round tackle and Mitchell are completely unrelated. I'm talking about drafting a LT to start in 2024, not a RT to start this year, whereas you seem kind of stuck on drafting a RT to start this year. I believe they've got Brown penciled in at LT and Becton at RT, just like they had last year.

Their mind is probably already made up regarding whether they want to pick up Becton's option for next year, since they have to do it pretty soon. So we don't necessarily know that Becton will be on next year's roster.

I don't think mid round picks are realistic bets to compete for a starting left tackle job in their second year. Tough position.

Ogbuehi is an OT, and I think is camp insurance, but far from a safe bet to be on the roster. Probably hope they can carry him on the practice squad. Also not signed in 2024.

I think the "bad case" if they take a tackle (2023 high draft pick is ready to start at LT in 2024, Becton shows out well, Mitchell is also a starting caliber player - they over-invested) is less of a problem than the bad case if they don't (Becton proves unreliable and they let him walk, at best Mitchell is the only starting caliber tackle on the roster). Worst case they can tag and move Becton for picks or something. 

I just don't see any way we take a 1st round OL who won't be in the starting lineup next year.  Worst case they slot in at OG to start, but I think right now Becton is the LT and Brown is his insurance, which makes sense considering he's missed two straight seasons essentially.  That's how I view it at least from everything I've read.  

 

Also agreed, I don't think you can expect a 4th rounder to be ready to slot in at LT after a year, but at some point you have to trust that your GM who supposedly specializes in being able to find quality OL can spot a kid in that range and make the right call.  It's most likely much safer to take the OT in the 1st - maybe a trade down for a kid like Mauch, who can start at OG from day one and then potentially transition to that LT job in 2024.  I'm just not sure if that's the best call, IF the 2023 OL is already set in their eyes, to be investing your only 1st rounder until 2025 on a guy who you don't even intend to play next season.  Especially considering we've now gone "all-in".  IMO anyone we take in the 1st and 2nd should be guys we expect to step right onto the field and contribute, whether it's an OL or someone else.   

 

Like I said though, I'm still leaning OL with our 1st or 2nd rounder, but if I do draft a kid there they will absolutely have every opportunity to start from day one.  The only way they wouldn't is if they pull a Hackenberg and completely fall on their face.  

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10 minutes ago, derp said:

Again, mostly focused on the 2024 tackle situation. And I don't think Ogbuehi is a roster lock.

Ogbuehi looked pretty good last year before the line was in complete shambles.  He's pretty solid depth.  I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it, tbh. 

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The more I look at the prospects this year, the more I think there aren't really any elite tackle prospects that differentiate themselves from the 2nd/3rd round guys. They all come with question marks.  Makes me wonder whether the Jets taking a tackle in round 1 is really a smokescreen.  I still think the move is to allow someone to trade up and recoup some of the picks they just lost.  Maybe trade to the bottom of the round to put them into a position to take one of the center prospects, D tackle, or tight end, while recouping a couple of picks.  Go center in the second round if they don't go center in the first.  Think there is some depth in late round 1 through the 3rd round, maybe top of the fourth.  Not sure the blue chippers are so far above this second group.  This is a meh draft at the top.  

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5 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I just don't see any way we take a 1st round OL who won't be in the starting lineup next year.  Worst case they slot in at OG to start, but I think right now Becton is the LT and Brown is his insurance, which makes sense considering he's missed two straight seasons essentially.  That's how I view it at least from everything I've read.  

 

Also agreed, I don't think you can expect a 4th rounder to be ready to slot in at LT after a year, but at some point you have to trust that your GM who supposedly specializes in being able to find quality OL can spot a kid in that range and make the right call.  It's most likely much safer to take the OT in the 1st - maybe a trade down for a kid like Mauch, who can start at OG from day one and then potentially transition to that LT job in 2024.  I'm just not sure if that's the best call, IF the 2023 OL is already set in their eyes, to be investing your only 1st rounder until 2025 on a guy who you don't even intend to play next season.  Especially considering we've now gone "all-in".  IMO anyone we take in the 1st and 2nd should be guys we expect to step right onto the field and contribute, whether it's an OL or someone else.   

 

Like I said though, I'm still leaning OL with our 1st or 2nd rounder, but if I do draft a kid there they will absolutely have every opportunity to start from day one.  The only way they wouldn't is if they pull a Hackenberg and completely fall on their face.  

I get the confusion with taking a first round OL who won't start this year. I've posted about that. I'm playing devil's advocate a little bit, because the 2024 LT hole is big and Rodgers is hopefully playing a second year too. It's also why I keep using first or second round for a potential 2024 LT instead of just first - since using a second round pick on a potential LT would allow them to get a 2023 impact player with that first pick and they could still have a guy to develop as a LT. That, conceptually, makes more sense to me than the first round pick. But it is a premium spot and if they can have a cheap starter there next year they drafted in the first round this year, not the worst thing. Really depends if they think they can get somebody who could project to LT in the second.

Pretty sure last year in camp at different points it was Brown at LT and Becton at RT - Brown has only played LT. Brown moved Fant who was better at LT than RT to RT too, and the Jets had Fant at LT and Becton at RT as well. Brown and Becton are the Jets' best two tackles, so Brown at LT and Becton at RT makes the most sense to me.

Mauch is an interior guy only, I think. Probably an emergency tackle like AVT, but short arms.

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

He came in needing 1-2 off seasons in an offseason pro weight program. I think the view hasn’t changed.

I thought he exceeded expectations last year so seems like a higher floor guy.

Excited to see his upside when he gets stronger.  I remember one play against the Ravens when Calais Campbell treated him like a rag doll.

That said, he generally held his own pre injury and before the blood clot negatively impacted his last game.

Let’s hope his recovery from the health issues didn’t slow down his trajectory.

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9 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Ogbuehi looked pretty good last year before the line was in complete shambles.  He's pretty solid depth.  I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it, tbh. 

He may be, I think he's more of a break glass in case of emergency guy based on the way this year's roster and next year's roster are constructed. We'll see in a couple days. I don't see them carrying five tackles or him making it over Brown, Becton, Mitchell, or a high draft pick. Maybe he makes it if they draft someone high and trade Becton.

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5 minutes ago, derp said:

I get the confusion with taking a first round OL who won't start this year. I've posted about that. I'm playing devil's advocate a little bit, because the 2024 LT hole is big and Rodgers is hopefully playing a second year too. It's also why I keep using first or second round for a potential 2024 LT instead of just first - since using a second round pick on a potential LT would allow them to get a 2023 impact player with that first pick and they could still have a guy to develop as a LT. That, conceptually, makes more sense to me than the first round pick. But it is a premium spot and if they can have a cheap starter there next year they drafted in the first round this year, not the worst thing. Really depends if they think they can get somebody who could project to LT in the second.

Pretty sure last year in camp at different points it was Brown at LT and Becton at RT - Brown has only played LT. Brown moved Fant who was better at LT than RT to RT too, and the Jets had Fant at LT and Becton at RT as well. Brown and Becton are the Jets' best two tackles, so Brown at LT and Becton at RT makes the most sense to me.

Mauch is an interior guy only, I think. Probably an emergency tackle like AVT, but short arms.

 

Fair enough.  I'd have less of a problem with our 2nd rounder riding pine if it came down to it.  Fair enough on Mauch as well but I've read some reports that believe he can transition to LT eventually, but also some that see him strictly as an OG.  

 

As far as Becton vs Brown, my thinking would be Brown is purely insurance for Becton.  LT or nothing.  If Mitchell starts at RT and struggles, you then slide AVT over to RT and put Tomlinson back into the lineup.  Say in the scenario that you move down in the 1st and take a guy like Torrence or Mauch, it would be:

Becton-AVT-McGovern-Torrence-Mitchell

If Mitchell struggles, AVT goes to RT and Tomlinson plugs back in.  If Becton goes down, Brown takes his place.  Ogbuehi would essentially be 3rd string OT.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

As was said, Mitchell was a fourth round pick.

They restructured Tomlinson to push more of his cap hit into next year and make him uncuttable this year. Barring a massive surprise, he’s starting and they’re not replacing him with a fourth round pick.

Realistically, they have three tackles on the roster right now (Mitchell, Becton, Brown) with one (Mitchell) signed for next year - Becton’s $13.5M option could be picked up too. I’d think the hope is that Mitchell can start at RT next year.

They also have effectively 22-24 players on next year’s roster with $185-$204M in cap liabilities (not including Quinnen Williams in either), five draft picks this year, five to eight draft picks next year (no first rounder, potentially three late compensatory picks) and no starting LT.

Would be prudent to have a rookie there instead of needing one in free agency next year (very hard to find) or during next year’s draft without a first round pick. Doesn’t need to be a first round pick, but it’d be surprising if they came out of the top two rounds without at least someone they think has a shot to take that job next year.

This is part of the reason why I think they should exercise Becton’s option. It’s cheap for the position and leaves either A) a starting caliber LT on the roster at a discount price B ) a potential player on a 1 year try out for a slightly above market value. 

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3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Steen is a name to keep and eye on for us

I like him a lot.  IMO he's the safest LT prospect outside of the top 1st round guys.  Literally have zero clue where he goes in the draft though.  I can see some team loving him enough to take him late 1st, but most rankings I see have him late 2nd/early 3rd. 

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19 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

 

Fair enough.  I'd have less of a problem with our 2nd rounder riding pine if it came down to it.  Fair enough on Mauch as well but I've read some reports that believe he can transition to LT eventually, but also some that see him strictly as an OG.  

 

As far as Becton vs Brown, my thinking would be Brown is purely insurance for Becton.  LT or nothing.  If Mitchell starts at RT and struggles, you then slide AVT over to RT and put Tomlinson back into the lineup.  Say in the scenario that you move down in the 1st and take a guy like Torrence or Mauch, it would be:

Becton-AVT-McGovern-Torrence-Mitchell

If Mitchell struggles, AVT goes to RT and Tomlinson plugs back in.  If Becton goes down, Brown takes his place.  Ogbuehi would essentially be 3rd string OT.

That's expensive Becton insurance. I think the cleanest expectation is Brown-Tomlinson-McGovern-AVT-Becton. Schweitzer is top backup at all three iOL spots, AVT or Mitchell is first man up at tackle.

Addressed earlier but the way they rectructured Tomlinson's contract it'd be very surprising if they did anything to upgrade him in the draft. Not the way you handle a guy who might be a backup.

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