Value check: Scouts rankings vs Jets draft selections

[Bronx]

 

 

[20andOut]

Some lower some higher. But the real question is, is there any basis for putting value in Scouts Inc's opinions? Other than Cimini thinking they have value, which has no value.

[Beerfish]

Zaire Barnes kind of stood out to me from the picks and it seems to show in this little snippet.  He was the only guy out of the jets picks I had no idea who he was and had never heard his name.

[Larz]

50% of first round picks bust, including the precious amazing value picks that got an A from everyone. Nobody knows anything. Can’t judge a draft for 3 years 

[32EBoozer]

10 minutes ago, Bronx said:

 

 

Those 2-6th round picks confused the hell out of me. There was quite a few players on the board who could make meaningful contributions at DT & WR.

ITS Sherwood/Nasilrideen Part II

[peekskill68]

Akin to having your fantasy draft given an A by Yahoo and then going 4-10... 

[Bronx]

5 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Those 2-6th round picks confused the hell out of me. There was quite a few players on the board who could make meaningful contributions at DT & WR.

ITS Sherwood/Nasilrideen Part II

So, no kunt-love for you?

[IntoTheGreen]

10 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Those 2-6th round picks confused the hell out of me. There was quite a few players on the board who could make meaningful contributions at DT & WR.

ITS Sherwood/Nasilrideen Part II

This wr class was awful. No thank you there. Looks at Jets priority UDFA. They attacked STs there. Jets can find a DT post June 1. Not worries about that.

[Thai Jet]

Barnes and Bernard-Converse floored me. I was like WHO ? Hoping JD knows more than the rest on these 2. 

[FootballLove]

20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Zaire Barnes kind of stood out to me from the picks and it seems to show in this little snippet.  He was the only guy out of the jets picks I had no idea who he was and had never heard his name.

so you were 1 for 7.....i'm way better...i'm 7 for 7!!! I never heard of any of them! ?

[TuscanyTile2]

26 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Zaire Barnes kind of stood out to me from the picks and it seems to show in this little snippet.  He was the only guy out of the jets picks I had no idea who he was and had never heard his name.

I don't follow college football closely but my initial impression of this pick was that every draft has to have a bust, and it feels like he's the guy.   Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

[Beerfish]

1 minute ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't follow college football closely but my initial impression of this pick was that every draft has to have a bust, and it feels like he's the guy.   Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

Well he is part of the throw small linebackers/safeties against a wall and hope you find fred warner

[Greenseed4]

All I got from this was Joe Douglas would’ve lost the JN Mock Draft if he chose the Jets.

[IndianaJet]

32 minutes ago, Larz said:

50% of first round picks bust, including the precious amazing value picks that got an A from everyone. Nobody knows anything. Can’t judge a draft for 3 years 

As of today....only 11 players from the 2020 1st round have had their 5th year option picked up.

5 already have had theirs declined.

My guess is that many of the 16 remaining will not be picked up.

[JetsYanks13]

They stole the kunt considering value


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[32EBoozer]

41 minutes ago, Bronx said:

So, no kunt-love for you?

Much love!

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, 20andOut said:

Some lower some higher. But the real question is, is there any basis for putting value in Scouts Inc's opinions? Other than Cimini thinking they have value, which has no value.

If we're asking that, is there any basis in putting value in anyone's opinions?  Any evaluator, any website, any anyone?

Ultimately it's like asking how much something is worth, everyone can give an opinion, but it's only actually worth what someone is willing to give you for it.

So I guess every pick was 100% picked at the right spot, because that's where they were picked.  Yah, that makes draft analysis pretty easy!

[Cyberjet]

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

 

 

Who are these scouts he speaks of. 

[CanadaSteve]

1 hour ago, IntoTheGreen said:

This wr class was awful. No thank you there. Looks at Jets priority UDFA. They attacked STs there. Jets can find a DT post June 1. Not worries about that.

I bet Al Woods is a Jet at some point. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

NFL prospect ranking had McDonald #23, Tippman #48. For what's that worth. Pretty close to the above.

 

 

[MichaelScott]

Like anything else, depends what scouts. I saw plenty of outlets that had McDonald listed in the 50's and 40's. Joe picked the site that was kindest to that disgusting reach. 

[20andOut]

6 hours ago, Warfish said:

If we're asking that, is there any basis in putting value in anyone's opinions?  Any evaluator, any website, any anyone?

 

Yes, If they have a proven track record of being accurate in the past. Does Scouts Inc have a track record of being accurate? I don't know. I was asking a question. "Is there any basis for putting value in Scouts Incs opinions?"

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

8 hours ago, Bronx said:

 

 

No

[JohnnyLV]

Many teams only rank 150 players and never have all of them taken so outside of maybe the Top 50 or so everyone has them ranked differently.

And then even in the first we may value someone more than others. MacDonald was basically a prospect that was well suited to moving to a Wide 9 alignment so perfect fit for Jets but probably wasted in Tampa 2

[Sperm Edwards]

15 hours ago, Larz said:

50% of first round picks bust, including the precious amazing value picks that got an A from everyone. Nobody knows anything. Can’t judge a draft for 3 years 

Really this, with the lone caveat being whether a team could’ve traded down and still drafted the same player. Unless some GM or scout admits years later - if not after no longer with the team - that they all had their eye on a different player they’d just missed, they never insult the guy they ended up with like that (and justifiably so), so we’ll never know.

So maybe McDonald would’ve still been there at 25 had they moved down; maybe he’d have been off the board by 20 & no one between 16-19 wanted to pay to move up.

Likewise, what if they had they traded up for Tippman because they felt - justifiably or not - the need and drop-off beyond him was so great they couldn’t risk losing him; we wouldn’t have known (as we now do) that he’d have still been there at 43 anyway.

Few care about value when they pan out later. I think Kiper, Mayock, etc. were all stroking their expertise about how Travis Frederick was such a surprising reach he was the worst 1st pick in an already comparatively weak 2013 class. Then the guy is an all pro / probowler every year until GBS robbed him of a longer career.

These experts know more than I do, but not nearly as much as they think they do in terms of who’s going to pan out.

If McDonald is ordinary, they were right. If he’s a (Von) Miller Lite like Cameron Wake on the field then no one cares where he was drafted.

[Lith]

16 hours ago, 20andOut said:

Some lower some higher. But the real question is, is there any basis for putting value in Scouts Inc's opinions? Other than Cimini thinking they have value, which has no value.

I was about to pop in to say the same thing.  Scouts, Inc should be checking their rankings against where guys are actually selected by NFL GMs.  Not the other way around.

[batman10023]

16 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Those 2-6th round picks confused the hell out of me. There was quite a few players on the board who could make meaningful contributions at DT & WR.

ITS Sherwood/Nasilrideen Part II

i like the RB and TE picks.

[Long Island Leprechaun]

14 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

Like anything else, depends what scouts. I saw plenty of outlets that had McDonald listed in the 50's and 40's. Joe picked the site that was kindest to that disgusting reach. 

NFL prospects ranking had him at #23. Jeremiah had him at #26. Obviously, the Jets had him at #15 or better. There are a lot of blog-level ratings out there -- guys who basically cobble together a rating from what they read on other rating sites and throw out a number. 

[Scott Dierking]

16 hours ago, 20andOut said:

Some lower some higher. But the real question is, is there any basis for putting value in Scouts Inc's opinions? Other than Cimini thinking they have value, which has no value.

Based upon this, their own criteria, I would not place a lot of stock in their numbers.

Here is a breakdown of what each numerical grade means.

Grading Scale

90-100: Elite Player
Player demonstrates rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. ... Premier NFL player who has all the skills to consistently play at a championship level. ... Rates as one of the top players at his position in the league.

80-89: Outstanding Player
Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL. ... A feature player who has an impact on the outcome of the game. ... Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week in and week out.

70-79: Good Starter
Solid starter who is close to being an outstanding player. ... Has few weaknesses and usually will win his individual matchup but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the league.

60-69: Average Starter
A valuable roster player but not a dominant player against the better players he faces on a weekly basis. ... Gives great effort and teams are glad to have him, but he may or may not go to the next level.

50-59: Good Backup
This is a player who is really on the bubble and only starts because of a deficiency at the position. ... He lacks complete overall skills, and although he will battle, he will hinder his team's ability to play at a championship level if he is forced to be in the starting lineup consistently over a 16-game season. Teams don't mind having him on the roster but are always looking to upgrade.

40-49: Below Average Backup/Core Special Teamers
Strictly a backup player who is not capable of starting. If forced to, he is only a short-term fix. ... He might make the roster because of special-teams contributions or experience. ... He is the type of player teams consistently look to replace with an upgrade. ... He always will be a borderline roster player.

30: Developmental Player
Players with this grade have very little film to evaluate. Such players might flash potential in the preseason but don't have any regular-season performances to judge. they usually have very little experience but have to be tracked due to developmental potential.

20: Rookie (Post Draft)
No professional tape to evaluate. These players will have an evaluation based on their college tape, but we will not put a new grade on them until after their rookie seasons. They will carry the 20 grade throughout their first NFL season.

10: Evaluation in Process
Need more information

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.

 

[Warfish]

What I find most interesting is that literally no one here at JN was talking about McDonald prior to his being picked, and no one at all was advocating for us to draft him at #15 (or #13 when we had it).

Like one guy mentioned him as a maybe in the 2nd round.

The lone exception I could find in the entire leadup to the draft was @football guy who mentioned him several times for us, specifically at one point saying "one scout is really high on McDonald".  Seems that one scout got what he wanted.

For all the love of the pick now, no one expressed wanting him before the pick was made, and it's pretty rare that literally no one was talking about him pre-draft.  There are always some group of folks pining for this guy or that and talking about him here, but not this time.

The #25 value vs. picked at #15 I think speaks to that, he was more a late 1st/very early 2nd projection, not a mid-first. 

[Scott Dierking]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

What I find most interesting is that literally no one here at JN was talking about McDonald prior to his being picked, and no one at all was advocating for us to draft him at #15 (or #13 when we had it).

Like one guy mentioned him as a maybe in the 2nd round.

The lone exception I could find in the entire leadup to the draft was @football guy who mentioned him several times for us, specifically at one point saying "one scout is really high on McDonald".  Seems that one scout got what he wanted.

For all the love of the pick now, no one expressed wanting him before the pick was made, and it's pretty rare that literally no one was talking about him pre-draft.  There are always some group of folks pining for this guy or that and talking about him here, but not this time.

The #25 value vs. picked at #15 I think speaks to that, he was more a late 1st/very early 2nd projection, not a mid-first. 

How many people here watch Iowa State football on a regular basis, and crunch their film?

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

How many people here watch Iowa State football on a regular basis, and crunch their film?

I appreciate you think we're all just stupid and ignorant and that no one here know anything Scott, but every year we do generally have alot of knowledgeable folks discussing the draft and the likely draft prospects.  And every year we have more than a handful of fans who nail our top round picks.  Last year I hit two and a bit, Wilson and Hall, and Hall was surprising to many, but he HAD been discussed as a possible 2nd by alot of folks.  Sauce was an obvious possibility, as were some of the pass rushers, but all got discussed before hand ad neasuem.

I cannot recall in all my time at JN or JI a draft where our #1 pick was so infrequently mentioned by the fans (as in basically not at all), much less not having even a single fan here advocating for him.  We have some very informed college fans and draftnicks here at JN, no they're not GM's (which I suppose means you will dismiss them) but they're not ignorant that Iowa State exists, lol.  

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

I appreciate you think we're all just stupid and ignorant and that no one here know anything Scott, but every year we do generally have alot of knowledgeable folks discussing the draft and the likely draft prospects.  And every year we have more than a handful of fans who nail our top round picks.  Last year I hit two and a bit, Wilson and Hall, and Hall was surprising to many, but he HAD been discussed as a possible 2nd by alot of folks.  Sauce was an obvious possibility, as were some of the pass rushers, but all got discussed before hand ad neasuem.

I cannot recall in all my time at JN or JI a draft where our #1 pick was so infrequently mentioned by the fans (as in basically not at all), much less not having even a single fan here advocating for him.  We have some very informed college fans and draftnicks here at JN, no they're not GM's (which I suppose means you will dismiss them) but they're not ignorant that Iowa State exists, lol.  

If you want to put words in my mouth, ok. Have at it. 

There are many great football minds on this site. But there are only a few (one that I can name distinctly) that puts in the efforts that true NFL pro-personnel directors put in. That includes:

-Watching reams of film.

-Going to the combine and watching them in person.

-Going to their pro-day on campus, if they are having one.

-Speaking with that player and getting a sense of them as a person, as well as a player.

-Speaking with their coaches and getting their perspective of the player.

These are things that the average computer typing web site fan does not have the ability to do. And they are all important in the selection process and gives insight over pouring over reams of material created in amalgamation by services. 

Warfish, you are often guilty of saying things like "look how any people on the board had opinions on this <insert subject here>". And I am paraphrasing there, but you seem to do it often. And that is ok. Now you seem to be doing the opposite dance, and saying "why did no one here say "x" about this player?". That knife seems to cut many ways with you.

Had I ever heard of Will McDonald? No. Did I watch a little Iowa State games? Yes. But in small quantities. Bottom line, I have ZERO to guess as to what this player can be in this league. And most others are in the same boat. But using the "consensus of this board" as a measuring stick, seems awful shallow in basing what a player may be or his worth. 

[#27TheDominator]

I think part of the issue with McDonald is that he is very similar to Nolan Smith.  He is a tweener that people don't think fits the system and nobody wanted/expected to burn 15 on an athletic DPR.  Looking at it after the fact, he makes more sense than Smith for a few reasons - he has a better resume as a pass rusher, and I think he has shown more ability to drop back and cover, so he might be an actual LB rather than a fidget DE.  I think most of the board was just yelling "NO!" to Nolan Smith, so they did not think about McDonald who I see as similar but was likely to go later.  Looking at him more closely I can see why he would go ahead of Smith, but I think in terms of the pundits we just weren't going to look at him since he was on a list that had Smith on the top and most people were just against picking from that list.

[jetblue95]

38 minutes ago, Warfish said:

What I find most interesting is that literally no one here at JN was talking about McDonald prior to his being picked, and no one at all was advocating for us to draft him at #15 (or #13 when we had it).

Like one guy mentioned him as a maybe in the 2nd round.

The lone exception I could find in the entire leadup to the draft was @football guy who mentioned him several times for us, specifically at one point saying "one scout is really high on McDonald".  Seems that one scout got what he wanted.

For all the love of the pick now, no one expressed wanting him before the pick was made, and it's pretty rare that literally no one was talking about him pre-draft.  There are always some group of folks pining for this guy or that and talking about him here, but not this time.

The #25 value vs. picked at #15 I think speaks to that, he was more a late 1st/very early 2nd projection, not a mid-first. 

 

but doesn't the converse hold as well.

many were wanting JSN for example, even when we were still picking 13 (and i can throw myself in this category as one of my desired targets).  and in the end, he went #20.  so given the real value is what the actual professionals think and not the bevy of internet scouts and experts, many here wanted the jets to take someone at #13 when he ultimately went #20.  that could be considered a small "reach"

or if we assume others would have been happier with nolan smith over mcdonald if we went edge (and i can put myself in this class as right before our pick i said JSN or nolan smith), in the end, smith went #30 (i think?) and many wanted him at 15, which would be a "reach"