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Draft LOTTERY in the NFL ?


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NFL should, but won’t, have a draft lottery

Posted by Mike Florio on May 17, 2023, 11:09 AM EDT

The NFL should have a draft lottery. The NFL, obviously, doesn’t have one.

An NFL draft lottery would become a major offseason tentpole. It would fill the dip that often occurs between the early days of free agency and the final countdown to the draft. It would generate attention and, more importantly, money.So why won’t the NFL do it? My theory, as expressed in Playmakers (I think), was and is that the NFL wants to avoid doing anything that will acknowledge the inherent temptation to tank. If the NFL were to create a system that, for example, gave more lottery balls to teams that finish lower in the standings, the NFL would be admitting what everyone currently knows — bad is good.

Bad is good.

That’s already the way it is, without ping-pong balls bearing team logos.

Bad is good. The temptation is there. Sometimes, teams act on it.

The Buccaneers did it in 2014, in order to nail down the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The Eagles did it in 2020, benching Jalen Hurts for Nate Sudfeld in the second half of a winnable game against the then-Washington Football Team in order to secure a higher spot in every round of the draft.Perhaps most notoriously, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross tried to do it in 2019, in order to win the Joe Burrow sweepstakes. Ross allegedly offered then-coach Brian Flores $100,000 per loss that year. Ross avoided punishment by persuading the NFL it was a joke. (We’re still looking for the punchline.) The NFL had a good reason to accept Ross’s explanation, since the NFL presumably didn’t want to shine a spotlight on someone giving in to the very real temptation to tank.There’s a way to craft a draft lottery that actually eliminates the temptation to tank. And it’s surprisingly simple. The 18 non-playoff teams enter the lottery, and each of them have one ball in the machine.

The 18 non-playoff teams have an equal chance to secure the No. 1 pick. That means there will be no incentive to lose games.

The only potential temptation under that model would come from an owner who would rather have a one-in-18 chance to secure the right to a generational talent over a ticket to a snowball’s chance at a Super Bowl win. But if a team were to make curious roster decisions in advance of a Week 18 game that had a playoff berth on the line, it would be more conspicuous. It would attract more attention and scrutiny. It would be very hard to get away with it.Chris Simms and I argued about it today. He believes it’s good to reward bad. I don’t like the idea of consistently handing to a dysfunctional team prime real estate in the draft. What’s the incentive to truly change things if one of the hidden benefits of being bad is being in position to eventually stumble into a franchise-altering talent like Joe Burrow?A non-weighted lottery including the non-playoff teams is the right way to go. It would allow the NFL to have a compelling event in late March or early April.

It also would address one of the lingering concerns regarding the gambling space, where clear proof of tanking could spark criminal prosecutions and/or civil litigation regarding the integrity of games on which people placed wagers under the assumption that both teams were actually playing to win.

>>  https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/05/17/nfl-should-but-wont-have-a-draft-lottery/

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1 minute ago, HighPitch said:

IMAGINE BEING THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAgue and you wind up with the 32nd pick. imagine the cheifs winning the sb and getting pick 2. 

 

tanking is not a big deal

That's not how the lottery works though, in the NBA there's 30 teams and only the 14 teams with the worst records are entered into the lottery. 

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3 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

no

I personally despise the NBA's draft lottery

if a team is willing to tank and subject their fans to maximum misery, they deserve their reward. 
 

I agree, the NBA draft lottery makes more sense because of the high stakes involved when it comes to talent acquisition. The generational talent that comes out of the draft in the NBA is way different than the NFL draft which is much more of a crapshoot. You're also talking about a 15 man roster vs 53, one guy can change everything.

Look at Victor Wembenyana coming out of the draft this year. The kid is like the 7'2 version of Durant with Rudy Gobert-like defense, once in a lifetime prospect. Over 50% of the league would be competing in a tankathon if there wasn't a lottery system.

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51 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

IMAGINE BEING THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAgue and you wind up with the 32nd pick. imagine the cheifs winning the sb and getting pick 2. 

 

tanking is not a big deal

read the article - that's not even a possibility. In the NBA, the worst teams do get more balls. That's the way I would do it.

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Despite not having much team success, under the current system the Jets haven't managed to get the first pick in a long time - so I don’t think a shake up would be bad from that standpoint. Haven’t really tanked late season as a franchise.

Although being the Jets, this would get instituted the year that the Jets would’ve had the first pick with a generational talent coming out and they’d drop in the lottery.

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An equal shot for the non-playoff teams?  That is more idiotic in an unconceivable way.

I am for trying it out on a one-year basis...like next year.  The Patriots 'are more probable than not' to miss the playoffs.  They will not be so bad that they have a realistic shot at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.  Try it out...just the tip...see how it feels.

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Here how it should work: teams that missed the playoffs get one ball for each win! So if you go 8-9 and miss the playoffs you get 8 lottery balls. If you go 1-16 you get 1 stinkin ball cause you suck. Nobody will be tanking on my watch. If your 1-16 you don’t deserve the number 1 pick  but you will get a top 16 pick. 

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3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

The lottery encourages tanking more than anything else. Take a look at what the Dallas Mavericks did at the end of the season 

Probably true, but what if even more randomness was included?   What if you didn't even know how many teams would be in the lottery until after the season?

You randomly select a number between say, 2 and 6.  It could be 3, could be 6, could be 2.  You don't know but that's how many of the teams at the bottom of the standings get put into the lottery.  Teams wouldn't have the ability to even know where they need to finish in order to be included in the lottery.  Just a thought.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

The lottery encourages tanking more than anything else. Take a look at what the Dallas Mavericks did at the end of the season 

And the league rigged it anyway such that San Antonio would get a generational big man... again. What a joke that league is. Let me guess... Celtics and Lakers Final?

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2 hours ago, JetPotato said:

And the league rigged it anyway such that San Antonio would get a generational big man... again. What a joke that league is. Let me guess... Celtics and Lakers Final?

I don't watch the NBA but I can't stand Popovich.  Wish San Antonio didn't win this lottery.

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8 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

We deserved a chance at Trevor Lawerence just as much as the Jaguars did dammit!

Yeah this is why I’m in favor of the lottery.  The Jets have SUCKED a number of years over the past decade or so and never “earned” the top pick.   The reality is that there is not that much of a difference between the bottom 5 teams so why rely on fluky wins and SOS tiebreakers?

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Could never work. 
 

it increases likelihood that a team with a QB gets the 1st overall pick or even the 2nd.
 

Imagine how teams without QBs will have to mortgage their future just to give up the picks to get a QB. 
 

And conversely, imagine the 18th seed who already has a QB now also gets multiple 1st rounders because they lucked into a top 3 pick. It would be a disaster. 

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20 hours ago, HighPitch said:

no.

the system is fine and fair as is. 

Tanking is way over rated plus when you tank, you generally just move up a spot maybe 2 its not that big a deaL.

Tanking is overrated unless you are the Jaguars who snatched Trevor Lawrence out from under the Jets who had him in the basket until they decided that tanking was not worth it.

and the proceeds were.  Zach Wilson.

 

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3 hours ago, THE BARON said:

Tanking is overrated unless you are the Jaguars who snatched Trevor Lawrence out from under the Jets who had him in the basket until they decided that tanking was not worth it.

and the proceeds were.  Zach Wilson.

 

Yeah and what happens to the architects of these so-called tanks? All are, nearly to a rule, fired. So the theory is that a staff tanks themself out of a job? Just another fussed-up conspiracy theory.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Yeah and what happens to the architects of these so-called tanks? All are, nearly to a rule, fired. So the theory is that a staff tanks themself out of a job? Just another fussed-up conspiracy theory.

in the NFL, ALL jobs are interim jobs.  that said, the jets blew it with trevor lawrence any way you slice it.  

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28 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

in the NFL, ALL jobs are interim jobs.  that said, the jets blew it with trevor lawrence any way you slice it.  

I’m not disagreeing just saying the whole purposeful tanking narrative is groan-inducing. No one is tanking to put their successors in a better position, since they get to carry the stink of a 1 win season forever after they are thrown out on their ass.

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On 5/17/2023 at 6:18 PM, Zachtomims47 said:

We deserved a chance at Trevor Lawerence just as much as the Jaguars did dammit!

Funny how, the whole time the Jets had a worse record than the Jags, the media were screaming the NFL had to bring in a draft lottery because the Jets were clearly tanking to get him. After the Rams game, there wasn't a word about it.

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35 minutes ago, jgb said:

I’m not disagreeing just saying the whole purposeful tanking narrative is groan-inducing. No one is tanking to put their successors in a better position, since they get to carry the stink of a 1 win season forever after they are thrown out on their ass.

I dig... Also consider how often highly drafted QBs flame out.  Tank for stank could be the new slogan. 

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