Jump to content

NYJ top 10 offense in ‘23 - Cynthia Frelund


Recommended Posts

From the NFL app. 
 

The narratives have only become more interesting as we've progressed through yet another transformational NFL offseason -- and we still have over 100 days before the 2023 regular season kicks off! Most of the NFL's roster reconstruction is now behind us, and the schedule is out, which means it's high time for forecasting. With that in mind, I wanted to explore the league's top offenses through the prism of projected win share.

Remember, win share measures the ability of each player, position group and side of the ball to earn or prevent first downs, points and touchdowns. All rosters used to simulate the season in this exercise are the forecasted 53 through May 16.

 

Another important preamble note: The rankings below are compiled via average results. Some offenses have great upside, but their projections are extremely volatile due to outsized personnel questions (SEE: the uncertainty around quarterback health in San Francisco and Arizona).

Lastly, don't forget that football is complementary. Thus, a few playoff-caliber offenses could miss out on a spot here, because their defenses are so strong that they change game scripts to favor more conservative outcomes. The opposite is also true: Some teams with poor defenses could field a top-10 offense because the unit has to work so hard -- for all four quarters -- to overcome a leaky D. This is also why the offensive win shares for some teams are bigger than the team's total projected win share; defense can pull down or inflate the overall figure.

Alright, enough dilly-dally -- let's get to it! Here is the rundown of my top 10 offenses, based on updated win-share projections:

Rank

10

New York Jets

PROJECTED WIN SHARE: 7.1

 

The Jets, Dolphins and Vikings are all extremely close in slots 10 through 12 here, with small differences separating them. Aaron Rodgers' ability to increase the effectiveness of his O-line pushes the Jets slightly ahead and into the 10th spot. Over the past five seasons, no QB has helped his O-line more than Rodgers, per computer vision. I was a bit shocked that the Jets ended up in the top 10 because their defense is also ranked in my top 10, whereas the Vikings' defense is not, meaning their offense should pick up a bigger win share. In the end, though, the Jets' schedule includes too many games where they are forecast to lean heavily on the Rodgers-led attack. If we were doing fantasy drafts right now, Breece Hall would be my RB7 in a PPR league (assuming full health).

Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Larz said:

Looking for the defense rankings. I don’t think she posted that yet but she said the defense is also top 10

that puts the jets in the same neighborhood as the bills and eagles. 
 

 

We were #5 last year, #3 after week 3.  We lost noone of consequence other than Rankins and replaced him with an equivalent pass rusher and a far superior run stuffer.  We added Clark to improve run stopping by secondary and TE coverage.  Added a solid edge rusher in the draft and return Lawson a year after his surgery.  All this behind an offense that led the league in three and outs and a special teams that featured two punt return touchdowns.  If we are not top 10, then ignore the evaluator.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

We were #5 last year, #3 after week 3.  We lost noone of consequence other than Rankins and replaced him with an equivalent pass rusher and a far superior run stuffer.  We added Clark to improve run stopping by secondary and TE coverage.  Added a solid edge rusher in the draft and return Lawson a year after his surgery.  All this behind an offense that led the league in three and outs and a special teams that featured two punt return touchdowns.  If we are not top 10, then ignore the evaluator.

Got ya but her model takes complimentary football into consideration and predicts how effectively they will stop offenses and help win games.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...