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Analysis of Who Makes the Opening Day Roster - Offense Edition


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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

When seeing it laid out like that - there should be a lot of concern with the offense we'll be putting on the field.

Soon to be 40 year old Rodgers, GWills, AVT a lot of Jags ...

 

Yup.  Joe D had to pander to Rodgers so we have Cobb instead of a total stud like JSN.

What have you done Joe Douglas!  What have you done!!

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3 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

 

I think there are 18 offensive players that are virtual locks to make the 2023 Jets

  • QB (2):  Rodgers, Wilson
  • RB (3):  Hall (could start the year on recallable IR),  Carter, Abanikanda
  • TE (3):  Uzomah, Conklin, Ruckert
  • WR (4): Wilson, Lazard, Davis, Hardman
  • OL (6): Brown, Vera-Tucker, Tomlinson, Tippman, Warren, Becton (could start the year on recallable IR)

Assuming there will be 25 or 26 offensive players on the opening day roster, that leaves 7 or 8 players.  By group, it could work out like this:

  • QB - 0 / 1 
  • RB - 1
  • TE - 1
  • WR -1 / 2
  • OL - 3 / 4

Here are the contenders:

  • QB - Tim Boyle vs Chris Streveler for 1 spot, possible neither make it
  • RB - Bam Knight vs Veteran Free Agent for 1 spot
  • TE - Draftee Zack Kuntz will be given every chance to earn the final spot at TE.  Kenny Yeboah, EJ Jennings, and Isaiah Gathings are probably fighting for 1-2 practice squad spots
  • WR - Randall Cobb and Denzel Mims will fight it out for WR #5.  In the event, they keep 6 WRs, both could make it
  • OL - Assuming there are 3 spots left, Connor McGovern probably earns 1.  That leaves Wes Schweitzer and Trystan Colon fighting for a spot at interior OL (G/C) and Max Mitchell and veteran Bill Turner fighting for a spot at OT

SO HERE IS THE BEST GUESS AT THE 25 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS ON THE JETS OPENING DAY ROSTER

  • QB (2):  Rodgers, Wilson
  • RB (4):  Hall, Carter, Abanikanda, Knight
  • TE (4):  Uzomah, Conklin, Ruckert, Kuntz
  • WR (6): Wilson, Lazard, Davis, Hardman, Cobb, Mims
  • OL (9): Brown, Vera-Tucker, Tomlinson, Tippman, Warren, Becton, McGovern, Schweitzer, Mitchell

Last Roster Decision:  3rd QB vs 5th WR (Boyle vs Mims)

Hardest Cut:  OT Billy Turner (Makes it if Mitchell or Becton start the year on reserve list)

Praying to Slip onto Practice Squad:  WR Luther, WR Brownlee, TE Jenkins, OT Turner, OL Colon

Don't rule out Travis Dye at RB.

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I have a feeling that at least one of our udfa crop this year will be a 'How the hell did this guy not get drafted???' thing and make the squad or at least start on psquad and move up to the roster at some point.

Either WR or more likely linebacker.

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4 hours ago, Jethead said:

Is Mitchell over the blood clot thing? Haven't heard anything. He could start on IR.

 

I have the same condition, factor V Leiden. I have 2 copies, I don’t know about him. I played basketball and never got a clot until age 53. They test your clotting risk while on thinners or your d dimer. Mine is normal so the thinners don’t make me a bleed out risk under normal conditions. My hematologist said I don’t need to worry about cutting myself in the kitchen but I won’t survive a car accident at speed that other people would. As an OT I think he can play but a SS, RB, LB, WR, that would be super risky. 

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5 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

OL - Assuming there are 3 spots left, Connor McGovern probably earns 1.  That leaves Wes Schweitzer and Trystan Colon fighting for a spot at interior OL (G/C) and Max Mitchell and veteran Bill Turner fighting for a spot at OT

I would be absolutely shocked if Max Mitchell doesn't make the starting 47 man squad.  He was last year's 4th round pick, and he was a quality young player when he was in the game.  

He isn't going anywhere.  You should put him down as a "lock" to make the team! If the Jets try to put him on the practice squad, he will be picked up by another team immediately!

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12 minutes ago, Alka said:

I would be absolutely shocked if Max Mitchell doesn't make the starting 47 man squad.  He was last year's 4th round pick, and he was a quality young player when he was in the game.  

He isn't going anywhere.  You should put him down as a "lock" to make the team! If the Jets try to put him on the practice squad, he will be picked up by another team immediately!

I agree but we don’t know the status of his medical situation.  Without that, he’s definitely a lock, but there’s still a question 

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3 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

I think Kuntz makes the team over Ruckert. That doesn’t mean he plays on Gameday. Bam doesn’t make team could go to PS. Mims makes team plays and contributes. 

 

Absolutely 0 chance of that happening.  They love Ruckert and he is going to be a total stub.  

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12 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

I think Boyle over Strev not sure if Jets will carry 3 QBs on roster or PS Boyle. Not impossible Boyle beats out Zach and he’s put on PS. Not sure of cap hit if Jets PS Zach and allow another team to select his contract. 

You can't put Wilson on the PS, you have to waive him first and he has to clear waivers before being re-signed to the PS.

Waiving him would result in a large dead cap hit due to guaranteed money accelleration against the cap. It's cheaper to keep him on the roster at his $9M cap hit than it is to waive him.

Plus, in any case, Wilson isn't getting beat out by Tim Boyle, of all people. He's terrible.

Rodgers is #1, Wilson is #2. That's it. Boyle and Streveler will hope to be brought back on the PS after they get cut.

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14 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

When seeing it laid out like that - there should be a lot of concern with the offense we'll be putting on the field.

Soon to be 40 year old Rodgers, GWills, AVT a lot of Jags ...

 

Hey, how would you like to be in charge of being concerned? You seem to have a handle on it already, and the other guys are busy looking forward to the season. Thanks! 

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12 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

I think Kuntz makes the team over Ruckert. That doesn’t mean he plays on Gameday. Bam doesn’t make team could go to PS. Mims makes team plays and contributes. 

 

I think this post should be framed.

There is absolutely positively zero chance that Kuntz makes the team over Ruckert.  Ruckert is an elite level blocker who simply got lost in the shuffle last year behind 2 veterans.  He has a floor of a 10 year blocking TE and a ceiling of a top 5 TE in the league.  

Kuntz is a good athlete who couldnt even see the field at penn state and had one good season playing against future bankers and teachers.  

 

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16 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

 

I think there are 18 offensive players that are virtual locks to make the 2023 Jets

  • QB (2):  Rodgers, Wilson
  • RB (3):  Hall (could start the year on recallable IR),  Carter, Abanikanda
  • TE (3):  Uzomah, Conklin, Ruckert
  • WR (4): Wilson, Lazard, Davis, Hardman
  • OL (6): Brown, Vera-Tucker, Tomlinson, Tippman, Warren, Becton (could start the year on recallable IR)

Assuming there will be 25 or 26 offensive players on the opening day roster, that leaves 7 or 8 players.  By group, it could work out like this:

  • QB - 0 / 1 
  • RB - 1
  • TE - 1
  • WR -1 / 2
  • OL - 3 / 4

Here are the contenders:

  • QB - Tim Boyle vs Chris Streveler for 1 spot, possible neither make it
  • RB - Bam Knight vs Veteran Free Agent for 1 spot
  • TE - Draftee Zack Kuntz will be given every chance to earn the final spot at TE.  Kenny Yeboah, EJ Jennings, and Isaiah Gathings are probably fighting for 1-2 practice squad spots
  • WR - Randall Cobb and Denzel Mims will fight it out for WR #5.  In the event, they keep 6 WRs, both could make it
  • OL - Assuming there are 3 spots left, Connor McGovern probably earns 1.  That leaves Wes Schweitzer and Trystan Colon fighting for a spot at interior OL (G/C) and Max Mitchell and veteran Bill Turner fighting for a spot at OT

SO HERE IS THE BEST GUESS AT THE 25 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS ON THE JETS OPENING DAY ROSTER

  • QB (2):  Rodgers, Wilson
  • RB (4):  Hall, Carter, Abanikanda, Knight
  • TE (4):  Uzomah, Conklin, Ruckert, Kuntz
  • WR (6): Wilson, Lazard, Davis, Hardman, Cobb, Mims
  • OL (9): Brown, Vera-Tucker, Tomlinson, Tippman, Warren, Becton, McGovern, Schweitzer, Mitchell

Last Roster Decision:  3rd QB vs 5th WR (Boyle vs Mims)

Hardest Cut:  OT Billy Turner (Makes it if Mitchell or Becton start the year on reserve list)

Praying to Slip onto Practice Squad:  WR Luther, WR Brownlee, TE Jenkins, OT Turner, OL Colon

The OL may wind up being a log jam but I cant see turner being cut. He is just too good of a player, can really help the young guys and Rogers trusts him.  Plus he plays multiple positions.

Brown is the real issue.  Ideally we could fill the OT starting and backup roles without him but his contract makes him really hard to release. 

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2 hours ago, jamesr said:

Don't see Mims sticking as #5 or #6 WR. Depth guys like that have to contribute on specials.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

I agree, I think he’s in the most precarious spot. I expect 4 RBs and probably 4 TEs (depending largely on Kuntz’ camp) leaving that sixth WR spot extremely vulnerable. 

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20 minutes ago, BCJet said:

The OL may wind up being a log jam but I cant see turner being cut. He is just too good of a player, can really help the young guys and Rogers trusts him.  Plus he plays multiple positions.

Brown is the real issue.  Ideally we could fill the OT starting and backup roles without him but his contract makes him really hard to release. 

The thing that really hurt Rodgers and the Packers last year was the injuries on the OL, which made Rodgers run for his life, which annoyed Rodgers. Probably smart of the Jets to stack as much depth on the OL for this season as possible so they aren’t boned if one or two guys end up on IR. As long as they can protect Rodgers, he’ll presumably stay happy and make the offense go. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Hey, how would you like to be in charge of being concerned? You seem to have a handle on it already, and the other guys are busy looking forward to the season. Thanks! 

I get it...

All Gas No Brakes...

Anything else will not be tolerated.... 

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20 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

When seeing it laid out like that - there should be a lot of concern with the offense we'll be putting on the field.

Soon to be 40 year old Rodgers, GWills, AVT a lot of Jags ...

You don't need Pro Bowlers at every spot when you have a QB.  

The whole point of fielding an offense isn't to cover up the weaknesses of a terrible QB.  The point is for it to support an already good QB.  You'll be amazed how good this offense looks with Rodgers under center.  Guys you think are JAGs will suddenly become fan favorites.

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To me the RBs are a really interesting question.  Breece's health will play a big factor.  Even if he's not on recallable IR to start the season the Jets will covet having depth there as Breece will likely be on a "pitch count" and the absolute worst thing would be rushing him back too early with too many touches.  Based on that I think the 4 you mentioned (Hall, Carter, Knight, Abanikanda) will all be there on Day 1 for sure unless the Jets pivot off Knight for a veteran (I hope they don't).  The bigger question is does Abanikanda do enough in the first 4-8 weeks of the season to make either Carter or Knight expendable?  And, if that happens and Breece looks to be back 95% by say October or November then perhaps the Jets make a move.  With that said, I still like the idea of keeping this setup of young, talented, depth.  We've seen how quickly things can turn south with some injuries that force JD to do something like trade for James Robinson.

The other conflating questions related to roster numbers here are what happens with Bawden at FB, and the value the Jets put on any of these guys playing Special Teams.  Here's an interesting fact.  Ty Johnson played 41% of Special Teams snaps last year, BY FAR the most of any Jets running back.  Zonovan Knight was second at 3.5%.  Who makes takes those snaps if Johnson isn't here?  Yes, they can come from almost any other position on the team (ex. some of our rookie and second year DBs and LBs) but they have to come from somewhere!

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