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Jet hater and Pats fan Seth Walder ran the numbers on the Jets 2023 season


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Seems this guy's model pegged the Jets as the 31st (2nd worst) in the NFL last year.

As a reminder, we finished tied for 20th (7 wins), and it took a literal epic collapse (losing 7 of last 8 games) in our late-season to be that bad.

So....maybe he's not that accurate?

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4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Seems this guy's model pegged the Jets as the 31st (2nd worst) in the NFL last year.

As a reminder, we finished tied for 20th (7 wins), and it took a literal epic collapse (losing 7 of last 8 games) in our late-season to be that bad.

So....maybe he's not that accurate?

Not that I but a ton of stock on Walder's rankings but I think the defensive turnaround between 2021 and 2022 for the Jets would be hard for any analytics model to predict.

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29 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Not that I but a ton of stock on Walder's rankings but I think the defensive turnaround between 2021 and 2022 for the Jets would be hard for any analytics model to predict.

I agree. 

I'm a big fan of analytics myself, but they're simply not infallible or overly reliable tbqh.

Like anything, analytics are a tool.  Nothing more.  And their value can easily be overstated.

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I agree. 

I'm a big fan of analytics myself, but their simply not infallible or overly reliable tbqh.

Like anything, analytics are a tool.  Nothing more.  And their value can easily be overstated.

As far as tools go fork > analytics and it's not even close. 

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1 hour ago, EarthWindandRodgers said:

Projected win total: 9.5 

 

Division winner odds: 25%

 

Super Bowl chances: 4%
 

He does have the Jets as the 6th best team in the NFL in his FPI. 
 

 

Something doesn't compute. The average NFL team has a 3.125% chance to win a championship in a given year. So he's saying the 6th best team is only 4%? Does he have the Chiefs at like 80%?

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

Something doesn't compute. The average NFL team has a 3.125% chance to win a championship in a given year. So he's saying the 6th best team is only 4%? Does he have the Chiefs at like 80%?

Clearly, the model...

OIP.pnyVztsKUZbqcROeGjRCjAHaDv?pid=ImgDe

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12 minutes ago, jgb said:

Thanks. Not as top heavy as you’d think with his 6th at 4%. 

To be fair last year the NFL was very top heavy.  I think most realistic analysis by December came to the conclusion that only five teams had a realistic chance of winning a championship 

3 AFC Teams 

KC, Buffalo, Cincy 

2 NFC Teams 

Philly & SF 

I personally think KC is going to drop off this year. Mahomes will keep them competitive, but I don’t like their supporting cast. 

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21 minutes ago, EarthWindandRodgers said:

He has the jets as the sixth best team but tied for 8th as far as Super Bowl odds go. This is due to conference, division, and schedule. 

Fair.  NFC is so much lighter than the AFC that the Eagles, and perhaps 49ers have a much higher probability of reaching the SB than they normally would, while AFC teams have a murderer's row to get through.  

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6 hours ago, Warfish said:

Seems this guy's model pegged the Jets as the 31st (2nd worst) in the NFL last year.

As a reminder, we finished tied for 20th (7 wins), and it took a literal epic collapse (losing 7 of last 8 games) in our late-season to be that bad.

So....maybe he's not that accurate?

The guy gave us a 25% chance of winning the division. Sounds like it’s basic 3rd grade math. 

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