Bills just signed their DT 7% of the cap

[jamesr]

This is not correct.

I hope you don't have a mortgage, loan or some sort of investment, based on your "facts" above.

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[jetstream23]

18 hours ago, Bronx said:

Quinnen Williams will get paid 25 million dollars a year, end of story.

That's the market rate.  It shouldn't be too surprising to anyone.  I'm guessing the conversations now aren't about the gross amount or annual value, and maybe they've even nailed down the guaranteed money.  They're probably going through the machinations of the payouts, bonus structure, which years hit the Cap hardest, etc.

The complicating factor (other than Rodgers which is a big one) is that the Jets actually have good, young players now.  The deal they give Quinnen can't preclude them from having a shot at retaining guys like AVT, Sauce, Garrett Wilson in a few years when those guys come up for deals.

This is a win-now (next couple years) Jets team.  I think there's only a 25% chance that all of QW, AVT, Sauce and Wilson will be here by 2026.

[Bronx]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

This is a win-now (next couple years) Jets team.  I think there's only a 25% chance that all of QW, AVT, Sauce and Wilson will be here by 2026.

QW would probably have the least value of them all if they pan out to be star players.

[jetstream23]

Quote

Bills' Ed Oliver lands big contract: DT agrees to four-year extension worth $68 million, per report

Oliver's extension reportedly includes $45 million guaranteed

 

$17M per year for Oliver.  IMO this doesn't hurt the Jets position at all.  QW should get more than $20M but his agent is now arguing that she believes he deserves $8M per year more than Oliver.

Hopefully this data point moves the QW extension to a conclusion.

 

[Facts]

7 minutes ago, jamesr said:

I hope you don't have a mortgage, loan or some sort of investment, based on your "facts" above.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

This is the type of post people make when they can't refute an argument.

[jetstream23]

3 minutes ago, Bronx said:

QW would probably have the least value of them all if they pan out to be star players.

My guess it that AVT gets the 5th year option and then the Jets trade him after his 4th season.  Pure speculation on my part.

Breece may end up being another guy sacrificed.  Does anyone see JD giving a RB a HUGE contract?

[Facts]

6 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

That's the market rate.  It shouldn't be too surprising to anyone.  

Daily reminder that just because something is the market rate, doesn't mean it's wise to pay that much.

See the 2008 housing crisis as an example.

[Jet Nut]

18 hours ago, Facts said:

And yeah, Q is much better than their guy but the point is SMART teams don't pay an interior d-linemen over 10% of the cap.

This is what JD should be telling Q right now:

Another thread saying exactly the same things as last weeks thread?  
You claim Q is much better but 7% is so much smarter than 10%.  

 

[Bronx]

1 minute ago, jetstream23 said:

My guess it that AVT gets the 5th year option and then the Jets trade him after his 4th season.  Pure speculation on my part.

I stick with AVT  if he stays healthy and accelerates his progress. He plays multiple positions and was the most valuable person on the OL last year. 

[jamesr]

This is the type of post people make when they can't refute an argument.

No, it's the type of post people make when the person they're replying to just doesn't get it.

Try some simple maths - start with $100m, increase it by 10% ten times in a row, and tell me what you get.

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[Facts]

4 minutes ago, jamesr said:

No, it's the type of post people make when the person they're replying to just doesn't get it.

Try some simple maths - start with $100m, increase it by 10% ten times in a row, and tell me what you get.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Where did you get 10% from? The cap doesn't go up 10%.

And the cap isnt compounded annually.

It has risen an average of 7.3% per year, over a 10 year period, for the last two decades.

NOT compounded annually. Meaning, it has risen 73%, average, over the last two decades, on a decade basis.

What YOU are doing is NOT the way it works.

This is actually hilarious that you think the cap compounds like that. If the cap did that, we would have a nearly billion dollar cap by now LOL..

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Facts said:

I'm the top line.

The rest of you are the bottom.

Except you steamroll over facts others present, such as how to do math, to emotionally dig into your position.

[Facts]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

7% is so much smarter than 10%.  

Yes, 7% is a massive difference than 10%.

Like multiple players a year, difference.

[jetstream23]

1 minute ago, Bronx said:

I stick with AVT  if he stays healthy and accelerates his progress.

Would love to keep them all, just don't see it as possible.  The thing that bumps AVT's chances higher is his positional flexibility.  It almost saves you a roster spot by having a guy who can play ever OL position except Center.  He's like the emergency third QB for the Left Tackle position and that's really valuable (especially considering the Jets recent history at LT).

[Facts]

22 minutes ago, jgb said:

Except you steamroll over facts others present, such as how to do math

Yeah I laughed when you said Sperm had a nice post, not realizing that his math was all wrong (actually it was the logic that was wrong, which caused incorrect outputs of numbers).

It's bias. You like his position, so you assumed his numbers were correct.

(they weren't)

[jamesr]

Where did you get 10% from? The cap doesn't go up 10%.
And the cap isnt compounded annually.
It has risen an average of 7.3% per year, over a 10 year period, for the last two decades.
NOT compounded annually. Meaning, it has risen 73%, average, over the last two decades, on a decade basis.
What YOU are doing is NOT the way it works.

I said nothing about the cap. I was talking about maths.

You showed an increase of X over 10 years, representing Y% overall, and you divided that Y% by 10 to get the average annual increase. That's not how numbers work.



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[jgb]

Just now, Facts said:

Yeah I laughed at when you said Sperm had a nice post, not realizing that his math was all wrong.

It's bias. You like his position, so you assumed his numbers were correct.

(they weren't)

No, that’s how compounding works, actually.

[jamesr]

No, that’s how compounding works, actually.

Not in Facts world.

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[Facts]

16 minutes ago, jgb said:

No, that’s how compounding works, actually.

The cap doesn't compound on a fixed rate.

LOL.

If the cap compounded like that, we would have a nearly billion dollar cap right now. Literally. (it would actually be close to $700M).

Historically, the cap rises 73% over a ten year period. NOT compounded annually. If you looked at annual compounding, it would be a lower percentage.

Compounding is a COMPLETELY different calculation. Over the last 15 years, compounding, the cap has grown at only 4.5% per year.

I broke it all down here - feel free to try and find a single thing that was wrong: https://forums.jetnation.com/topic/173787-bills-just-signed-their-dt-7-of-the-cap/?do=findComment&comment=5792365

You can't.

 

[Jet Nut]

17 hours ago, Facts said:

That's a huge difference. 2% of hundreds of millions of dollars is a big deal.

No it’s not.  It’s a couple of million dollars.  

[Jet Nut]

5 minutes ago, Facts said:

Yes, 7% is a massive difference than 10%.

Like multiple players a year, difference.

Wrong

[jetstream23]

This thread right now....

 

 

    +.  

[Facts]

It is absolutely hilarious that some of you think the cap compounds on some fixed rate annually.

Here, lets break down how ludicrous that idea is:

The cap is currently $225M. 

If the cap compounded annually at 10% (the number you all seem to be using), it would be 1 BILLION DOLLARS in only 15 years.

Are you starting to realize how ridiculous that premise is?

The average increase over a decade in the NFL is only 73.7% - not compounded - over the entire decade.

Compounding is a COMPLETELY different calculation. Over the last 15 years, compounding, the cap has grown at only 4.5% per year.

[Facts]

4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Wrong

Breece Hall, Card Lawson and Mecole Hardman COMBINED will earn less than 3% of the cap this season.

[Creepy Lurker]

1 minute ago, Facts said:

It is absolutely hilarious that some of you think the cap compounds.

Here, lets break down how ludicrous that idea is:

The cap is currently $225M. 

If the cap compounded annually at 10% (the number you all seem to be using), it would be $583M in only 10 years.

A 159% increase. DOUBLE the average for a decade.

In 15 years, it would be 1 BILLION DOLLARS.

The average increase over a decade in the NFL is only 73.7% - not compounded - over the entire time.

The cap will be $1 billion in 5 years so we should sign Q to a $32mil/year contract and make him the highest paid DT. 

[Facts]

1 minute ago, Creepy Lurker said:

The cap will be $1 billion in 5 years so we should sign Q to a $32mil/year contract and make him the highest paid DT. 

lol if the cap was $1B in 5 years, i'd be all for paying Q $32/M a year.

[CanadaSteve]

18 hours ago, Facts said:

Yeah this is not how NFL math works.

If Q gets what he wants ($30M per season), it would take the cap going up $80M to get under 10%.

Historically, it takes nearly a DECADE for the cap to go up that much.

How arbitrary is it if the REST OF THE NFL does it my way?

The rest of the NFL spends, on average 7.5% of their cap on interior d-linemen. All of them. Combined 7.5%. For Numerous interior d-linemen.

You want to spend 10% on ONE player.

Who is NOT a franchise QB.

[CanadaSteve]

28 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

No it’s not.  It’s a couple of million dollars.  

$225 million is about $4.5 million dollars.  And that is a couple of depth players, or one VERY good back up or low end starter at many positions.

 

[jgb]

37 minutes ago, jamesr said:

Not in Facts world.

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“It took ten years for the cap to go up $100 million thus it will take 10 years to go up another $100 million.”

Someone missed percentage day in 5th grade math. Just like how he was throwing around Fletcher Cox’s salary in like 2016 as “how smart teams do it” when I pointed out it was the same percentage of the cap as $25M would be today. He never acknowledged that or said “hey, good point.” He just shifted goal posts and pretended it never happened. And now his ego won’t let him back away and he’s left with hoping QW gets hurt or sucks so he can stroke it to an Internet victory lap. Sad existence.

[jamesr]

Forget the salary cap. Forget Quinnen Williams. Forget Ed Oliver. Just work on basic maths.

An 81% increase over 10 years is not the same as an 8.1% increase per year. That's not how numbers work.

Getting basic maths wrong undermines an argument that you are basing entirely on maths.



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[Facts]

13 minutes ago, jgb said:

“It took ten years for the cap to go up $100 million thus it will take 10 years to go up another $100 million.”

Someone missed percentage day in 5th grade math. 

I actually already corrected you on this. You either didn't see it, or didn't understand it.

Here, i'll copy/paste it:

 

Now, how about percentages over the last two decade?

2013-2023: 81.5% increase in a decade (8.1% per year average over a 10 year basis)

2003 to 2013: 65.3% increase in a decade (6.5% per year over a 10 year basis)

The salary cap has gone up an average of 7.3% per year over the past two decades.

 

Applying this to the contract Q is reported to want.

Q wants $25-30M per season.

If we take the middle of those two numbers, we have $27.5M per season.

To get to the 8% you and I talked about with Jones contract, the salary cap has to be ABOVE $343M.

$27,500,0000 / 0.08 = $343,750,000

We would never reach that, as explained to you before.

In fact, he would only get under 10% in the FINAL YEAR of his contract.

The entirety of the contract would be 10% or MORE.

[Facts]

16 minutes ago, jamesr said:

An 81% increase over 10 years is not the same as an 8.1% increase per year. That's not how numbers work.

No, it's an 8.1% average over a 10 year basis.

Or you can just say 81% over 10 years. Which is also what I said.

You should read what im actually writing instead of assuming.

If you want to look at compounding for the fun of it, you will see a much lower percentage.

For example, over the last 15 years, the NFL salary has compounded at only 4.5% per season. 

Most importantly: None of you can refute my actual math, which is why you're stuck on these semantic arguments. 

[batman10023]

18 hours ago, Facts said:

Sounds like what someone would say when they can't refute the argument.

Smart teams don't pay interior d-line men 10%+ of the cap. They just don't.

 

Sounds like someone who is sick of your argument 

[NIGHT STALKER]

The funny thing in all this is (and it won't play out like this...just saying), Jets don't have to commit anything to QW right now...still under contract.  And then they can always use the tag next year.  I don't know what the holdup is, but the Jets will want a happy camp and get this done.

[Facts]

12 hours ago, slats said:

Impact players get paid, and DT is absolutely a premium in the NFL with higher pay than every position on the OL including LT.

Sorry Slats, I missed your post among the others.

If you're talking about the top 5... DT is only above LT due to the freak-of-nature OUTLIER called Aaron Donald. Take away Donald, the outlier, and DT falls below LT. And DE. And LB. And QB. And WR.

On an average, DT is paid far less than OT. 

PS, I think the Rams are likely regretting that Donald contract about now too.

12 hours ago, slats said:

Higher than every position on defense but Edge rushers. Why do they get paid? Because they get to the QB like Q does. 
 

LB's are still above DT's, pay wise.

And CB's will be soon as well.