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2 big reasons some MIGHT be underestimating these Jets ..


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15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

 

1. Is it reasonable to expect our 2 first team All Pros to get even better?  Sauce (22 years old) & Quinnen (25 years old)?

I think it's very possible. Given how good they were in 2022 I don't think it's something I'd assume, though. They could regress slightly and still be All Pros.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

2. Where will Garrett Wilson (22) rank on the list of best WRs after this season?

If Aaron Rodgers is anywhere near where we think he is I think Garrett Wilson will be perceived as a top 10 WR by the time the season is over. He's easily the player who has the best opportunity to take a massive leap in terms of perception.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

3. Is AVT destined to become our next All Pro ... possibly even our offensive Joe Klecko (24)?

I have no idea what an offensive Klecko would be but he definitely can establish himself as an All Pro level G.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

4. Is Bryce Huff (25) ready to turn into a 10+ sack guy?

Probably not.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

5. What does season 2 of Jermaine Johnson (24), Micheal Clemons (25), Jeremy Ruckert (22) & Max Mitchell (23) look like?

I think this is the big question. JJ and Ruckert are def guys you're hoping take a big leap forward. They're the only draft picks in the first three rounds from 2022 that underwhelmed.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

6. Does Quincy Williams (26) have the type of upside that Demario Davis had?  Both explosive & fast athletes AND former 3rd round draft picks who struggled early in coverage ..

Seems unlikely if only because Davis' emergence as a star on his second team is a bit unusual but we can hope, can't we.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

7. Will Michael Carter II (24) solidify himself as one of the best 3-5 slot corners in the NFL?  His own goal for the upcoming season is to be #1.

He's been pretty good. With Sauce and Reed on the outside he'll get tested.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

8. Will guys like DJ Reed & JFM, both 26 years old, get even better as they enter their prime seasons?

I think they're both pretty close to finished products. It would be surprising if Reed improved much on his stellar 2022. If anything I think Sauce gets targeted less and Reed's performance slips a little.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

9. I keep hearing Free Safety and LB are weaknesses, at least partly because of unknowns like Tony Adams (24) + Jamien Sherwood (23).  Does JD know something we don't?

I doubt it, but hey, let's hope.

15 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

10. How easy/hard is it for the highest drafted rookie Center to come in and start?  Worked out very well for Baltimore and KC .. are those the anomalies?

I think it could happen. I certainly think the opportunity will be there -- I'd be discouraged if he doesn't' start to be frank.

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Just found this graph, which tracks the trend line of offensive skill players based on age and fantasy football points.  A little outdated and flawed but still pretty insightful.

This tells us WRs reach their peak at 26-27.

RBs hit the road running and peak in seasons 2-4 before turning south and then crashing & burning at around 30.

TEs start the slowest but make the biggest leap in year 2 out of the 3 positions before peaking in their late 20s, maybe even 30.  They enjoy the longest success out of this group.

Nothing really surprising, although found TE the most insightful.

Interestingly the Jets are in good territory for all 3 positions with fast starters like Garrett and a healthy Breece having plenty of upside.  WR#s 2-4 are in the 25-28 age range.  Conklin & Uzomah are 28 & 30, respectively while we might expect a BIG jump from Jeremy Ruckert.  The other RBs are in years 1, 2, and 3.  

 

Barrett-1.jpg

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41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

1. Is it reasonable to expect our 2 first team All Pros to get even better?  Sauce (22 years old) & Quinnen (25 years old)?

It's reasonable, on the optimistic side.

But so is a sophomore slump (for Sauce) and a post-big-contract falloff (for Q), on the pessimistic side.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

2. Where will Garrett Wilson (22) rank on the list of best WRs after this season?

Barring injury, hopefully top 10.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

3. Is AVT destined to become our next All Pro ... possibly even our offensive Joe Klecko (24)?

Eh, maybe?  At this point I'd like to just see solid O-line play and most of them staying healthy for a whole season.  Would be a nice change of pace from recent years.  AVT is good, but he too is coming off season-ending injury...

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

4. Is Bryce Huff (25) ready to turn into a 10+ sack guy?

I doubt it.  

I also doubt rookie McDonald makes a meaningful impact.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

5. What does season 2 of Jermaine Johnson (24), Micheal Clemons (25), Jeremy Ruckert (22) & Max Mitchell (23) look like?

Johnson, meh, spot player like/same as McDonald.

These guys are likely just starters at best, not stars, frankly.

But I admit I was a doubter on both the second they were picked.  Bad picks IMO, but they can always prove me wrong.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

6. Does Quincy Williams (26) have the type of upside that Demario Davis had?  Both explosive & fast athletes AND former 3rd round draft picks who struggled early in coverage ..

Good enough to start (for us, given our weak LB corp.), but no, not a star.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

7. Will Michael Carter II (24) solidify himself as one of the best 3-5 slot corners in the NFL?  His own goal for the upcoming season is to be #1.

A question only a Jets Fan would ask IMO.  

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

8. Will guys like DJ Reed & JFM, both 26 years old, get even better as they enter their prime seasons?

Probably not.  Guys like these have limits on their potential upside.  I think both have hit those limits.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

9. I keep hearing Free Safety and LB are weaknesses, at least partly because of unknowns like Tony Adams (24) + Jamien Sherwood (23).  Does JD know something we don't?

JD likely knows many things we don't.  But the eval. of LB and Safety as weak spots is likely accurate.

41 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

10. How easy/hard is it for the highest drafted rookie Center to come in and start?  Worked out very well for Baltimore and KC .. are those the anomalies?

It's hard.  It'll all depend if we picked the 'right guy' in Too Tall Tippmann, instead of the available alternate options of Schmitz or Wypler.  

I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, as I favored Schmitz.

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Another flawed but still insightful graph, this one on CBs.  Pro Bowls are often popularity contests and some older CBs still make it based on reputation alone.  Which means it might take a guy like DJ Reed an extra year to finally earn the recognition.  So 26-27 feels like a good peak to me.  It's one of the reasons why analysts who rank Miami's aging CB duo over Sauce & Reed are out of their minds.  Those guys are discounting the trend factor.  Sauce should continue to get better and DJ Reed is right around or slightly below his peak while guys like Howard (soon to be 30) and Ramsey (soon to be 29) will continue a decline that has already started.

 

Screen_Shot_2019_05_12_at_12.42.52_AM.png

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It's reasonable, on the optimistic side.

But so is a sophomore slump (for Sauce) and a post-big-contract falloff (for Q), on the pessimistic side.

Barring injury, hopefully top 10.

Eh, maybe?  At this point I'd like to just see solid O-line play and most of them staying healthy for a whole season.  Would be a nice change of pace from recent years.  AVT is good, but he too is coming off season-ending injury...

I doubt it.  

I also doubt rookie McDonald makes a meaningful impact.

Johnson, meh, spot player like/same as McDonald.

These guys are likely just starters at best, not stars, frankly.

But I admit I was a doubter on both the second they were picked.  Bad picks IMO, but they can always prove me wrong.

Good enough to start (for us, given our weak LB corp.), but no, not a star.

A question only a Jets Fan would ask IMO.  

Probably not.  Guys like these have limits on their potential upside.  I think both have hit those limits.

JD likely knows many things we don't.  But the eval. of LB and Safety as weak spots is likely accurate.

It's hard.  It'll all depend if we picked the 'right guy' in Too Tall Tippmann, instead of the available alternate options of Schmitz or Wypler.  

I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, as I favored Schmitz.

Age and experience are certainly key variables that drive some of the upward or downward performance trends we might expect.  We have that factor in our favor. 

Jermaine Johnson is already a very good Edge setter / run defender who was right around average as a pass rusher.  Slightly below on a couple metrics, slightly above on true pass sets which he didn't get many opportunities on.  Yes, he's already 24 so his upside might be limited but the key for him is improving his get-off time so he can convert his speed to power and leverage those long arms.  Last year, he was below average.  The camp reports are that he looks much faster off the line.  We'll see.

Michael Carter II is a very good CB to round out our trio and was ranked near around top 20 in key CB metrics.  He's entering his 3rd season and might have another step up.  Maybe not but it's a legitimate question.  Slot corner is an important position and we already have one of the best.  

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Hate to make it all about the QB, but if Rodgers is still way above average (let’s say a top 10 starting QB?), we are a legit team with a shot to compete if things break our way (good health + win some one score games). If he’s not, we are maybe a 0.500 ish team or worse. 

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I think a rotation of Johnson, huff, Macdonald and Clemmons is going to make passing pretty difficult. Throw in sauce and reed and I think they will see a lot of short passing games.

on offense, as long as the oline stays intact they’re going to have a good run to rely on. This’ll open up things for Wilson, Lazard, hardman, and the tes. I think Rodgers will do a much better job of finding the open receiver than Zach did.

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2 hours ago, rangerous said:

I think a rotation of Johnson, huff, Macdonald and Clemmons is going to make passing pretty difficult. Throw in sauce and reed and I think they will see a lot of short passing games.

on offense, as long as the oline stays intact they’re going to have a good run to rely on. This’ll open up things for Wilson, Lazard, hardman, and the tes. I think Rodgers will do a much better job of finding the open receiver than Zach did.

The OLine is the key.  Lots of question marks but enough talent and competition to make for a good unit.  Need to protect Aaron.

It will be fun to see his impact on the development of some of the young guns.  Just in terms of how to prepare and how to win.

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50 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The OLine is the key.  Lots of question marks but enough talent and competition to make for a good unit.  Need to protect Aaron.

It will be fun to see his impact on the development of some of the young guns.  Just in terms of how to prepare and how to win.

Aaron protects his OL

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22 hours ago, Warfish said:

It's reasonable, on the optimistic side.

But so is a sophomore slump (for Sauce) and a post-big-contract falloff (for Q), on the pessimistic side.

Barring injury, hopefully top 10.

Eh, maybe?  At this point I'd like to just see solid O-line play and most of them staying healthy for a whole season.  Would be a nice change of pace from recent years.  AVT is good, but he too is coming off season-ending injury...

I doubt it.  

I also doubt rookie McDonald makes a meaningful impact.

Johnson, meh, spot player like/same as McDonald.

These guys are likely just starters at best, not stars, frankly.

But I admit I was a doubter on both the second they were picked.  Bad picks IMO, but they can always prove me wrong.

Good enough to start (for us, given our weak LB corp.), but no, not a star.

A question only a Jets Fan would ask IMO.  

Probably not.  Guys like these have limits on their potential upside.  I think both have hit those limits.

JD likely knows many things we don't.  But the eval. of LB and Safety as weak spots is likely accurate.

It's hard.  It'll all depend if we picked the 'right guy' in Too Tall Tippmann, instead of the available alternate options of Schmitz or Wypler.  

I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, as I favored Schmitz.

Pretty much they’ll all fail?  Pretty much every good player on the roster and our 1st round pick?  Because DL don’t sometimes need time to develop or didn’t know him in college

When was the last time we worried about sophomore  slumps or a player quitting after he gets a new deal?  Mo and who else?  Read that about JFM, before and after his deal.  That prediction worked out well 😎

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23 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The first, we've talked about quite a bit and that's how much an impact QB play has on fans' perception of the offense.  Do we really have a good read on guys like Conklin, Uzomah and a (healthy) Davis with our recent QB play?  What will be our perception after a full year with Aaron Rodgers, God willing?

The second is talked about a lot less and that is the number of exciting young prospects the Jets have relative to other teams?  This is where JD has done a solid job outside the 2020 draft and the Wilson selection.  

My question to you is how much upside do these players have, .... something a lot of NFL analysts & some of our own board experts aren't necessarily baking in?  Some have called out Aaron Rodgers impending decline, Duane Brown's age, or Breece Hall's recovery as things that will weigh down our success.  That's why I thought it would be a good topic to discuss the flip side, our untapped potential.

1. Is it reasonable to expect our 2 first team All Pros to get even better?  Sauce (22 years old) & Quinnen (25 years old)?

2. Where will Garrett Wilson (22) rank on the list of best WRs after this season?

3. Is AVT destined to become our next All Pro ... possibly even our offensive Joe Klecko (24)?

4. Is Bryce Huff (25) ready to turn into a 10+ sack guy?

5. What does season 2 of Jermaine Johnson (24), Micheal Clemons (25), Jeremy Ruckert (22) & Max Mitchell (23) look like?

6. Does Quincy Williams (26) have the type of upside that Demario Davis had?  Both explosive & fast athletes AND former 3rd round draft picks who struggled early in coverage ..

7. Will Michael Carter II (24) solidify himself as one of the best 3-5 slot corners in the NFL?  His own goal for the upcoming season is to be #1.

8. Will guys like DJ Reed & JFM, both 26 years old, get even better as they enter their prime seasons?

9. I keep hearing Free Safety and LB are weaknesses, at least partly because of unknowns like Tony Adams (24) + Jamien Sherwood (23).  Does JD know something we don't?

10. How easy/hard is it for the highest drafted rookie Center to come in and start?  Worked out very well for Baltimore and KC .. are those the anomalies?

 

 

great post

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23 hours ago, Warfish said:

It's reasonable, on the optimistic side.

But so is a sophomore slump (for Sauce) and a post-big-contract falloff (for Q), on the pessimistic side.

Barring injury, hopefully top 10.

Eh, maybe?  At this point I'd like to just see solid O-line play and most of them staying healthy for a whole season.  Would be a nice change of pace from recent years.  AVT is good, but he too is coming off season-ending injury...

I doubt it.  

I also doubt rookie McDonald makes a meaningful impact.

Johnson, meh, spot player like/same as McDonald.

These guys are likely just starters at best, not stars, frankly.

But I admit I was a doubter on both the second they were picked.  Bad picks IMO, but they can always prove me wrong.

Good enough to start (for us, given our weak LB corp.), but no, not a star.

A question only a Jets Fan would ask IMO.  

Probably not.  Guys like these have limits on their potential upside.  I think both have hit those limits.

JD likely knows many things we don't.  But the eval. of LB and Safety as weak spots is likely accurate.

It's hard.  It'll all depend if we picked the 'right guy' in Too Tall Tippmann, instead of the available alternate options of Schmitz or Wypler.  

I'm hoping I'm wrong on this one, as I favored Schmitz.

What does your answer about MC2 mean?

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7 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Fair point. 

I don't see AVT making the Pro Bowl as an OT, but I missed the original reference.

it's a long shot but there's a case to be made he's actually the best RT on the roster

depending on injury their "best 5" Might be some combo of Tippmann - Wes - McGovern at C and RG, bumping AVT to RT

(where he actually played great last year )

There is a scenario where AVT bumps to RT to make himself more money too long term 

 

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23 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Another flawed but still insightful graph, this one on CBs.  Pro Bowls are often popularity contests and some older CBs still make it based on reputation alone.  Which means it might take a guy like DJ Reed an extra year to finally earn the recognition.  So 26-27 feels like a good peak to me.  It's one of the reasons why analysts who rank Miami's aging CB duo over Sauce & Reed are out of their minds.  Those guys are discounting the trend factor.  Sauce should continue to get better and DJ Reed is right around or slightly below his peak while guys like Howard (soon to be 30) and Ramsey (soon to be 29) will continue a decline that has already started.

 

Screen_Shot_2019_05_12_at_12.42.52_AM.png

The real reason is because the best cornerbacks are all #27.  

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23 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Hate to make it all about the QB, but if Rodgers is still way above average (let’s say a top 10 starting QB?), we are a legit team with a shot to compete if things break our way (good health + win some one score games). If he’s not, we are maybe a 0.500 ish team or worse. 

If Rodgers is top 10 QB, this team is a top 3 team in the NFL. If he is average, this team is top 10 in the NFL. If he is declining and below average this team is a fringe playoff team.

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40 minutes ago, bitonti said:

it's a long shot but there's a case to be made he's actually the best RT on the roster

depending on injury their "best 5" Might be some combo of Tippmann - Wes - McGovern at C and RG, bumping AVT to RT

(where he actually played great last year )

There is a scenario where AVT bumps to RT to make himself more money too long term 

 

Some truth to this, but I didn't know that players were allowed to select where they will play based upon how much money they will make.  OTOH, I guess that is why Becton is squawking about being an LT. 

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15 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Some truth to this, but I didn't know that players were allowed to select where they will play based upon how much money they will make.  OTOH, I guess that is why Becton is squawking about being an LT. 

I'm hoping we can clone him and play him at LG, RG, and RT.

Can you imagine a line of?

Brown/Becton, AVT, Tippmann, AVT, AVT

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On 6/27/2023 at 3:01 PM, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

The first, we've talked about quite a bit and that's how much an impact QB play has on fans' perception of the offense.  Do we really have a good read on guys like Conklin, Uzomah and a (healthy) Davis with our recent QB play?  What will be our perception after a full year with Aaron Rodgers, God willing?

The second is talked about a lot less and that is the number of exciting young prospects the Jets have relative to other teams?  This is where JD has done a solid job outside the 2020 draft and the Wilson selection.  

My question to you is how much upside do these players have, .... something a lot of NFL analysts & some of our own board experts aren't necessarily baking in?  Some have called out Aaron Rodgers impending decline, Duane Brown's age, or Breece Hall's recovery as things that will weigh down our success.  That's why I thought it would be a good topic to discuss the flip side, our untapped potential.

1. Is it reasonable to expect our 2 first team All Pros to get even better?  Sauce (22 years old) & Quinnen (25 years old)?

2. Where will Garrett Wilson (22) rank on the list of best WRs after this season?

3. Is AVT destined to become our next All Pro ... possibly even our offensive Joe Klecko (24)?

4. Is Bryce Huff (25) ready to turn into a 10+ sack guy?

5. What does season 2 of Jermaine Johnson (24), Micheal Clemons (25), Jeremy Ruckert (22) & Max Mitchell (23) look like?

6. Does Quincy Williams (26) have the type of upside that Demario Davis had?  Both explosive & fast athletes AND former 3rd round draft picks who struggled early in coverage ..

7. Will Michael Carter II (24) solidify himself as one of the best 3-5 slot corners in the NFL?  His own goal for the upcoming season is to be #1.

8. Will guys like DJ Reed & JFM, both 26 years old, get even better as they enter their prime seasons?

9. I keep hearing Free Safety and LB are weaknesses, at least partly because of unknowns like Tony Adams (24) + Jamien Sherwood (23).  Does JD know something we don't?

10. How easy/hard is it for the highest drafted rookie Center to come in and start?  Worked out very well for Baltimore and KC .. are those the anomalies?

 

 

Good thread....so I think teams with talented YOUNGER players will be better. YOUNGER players are still hungry, where older vets have settled into a routine, wife, kids, football, etc. Outside a contract year, I don't see tons of older players killing themselves.

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45 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Good thread....so I think teams with talented YOUNGER players will be better. YOUNGER players are still hungry, where older vets have settled into a routine, wife, kids, football, etc. Outside a contract year, I don't see tons of older players killing themselves.

I think many of us are prone to overvalue older players past their peak based on preceding reputations and undervalue young guys who haven’t reached their peak.

QB is the one position where experience & mental processing allow you to make up for declines in athleticism, as long as the body, arm and internal fire hold up.  

I’ll just say I love how we are positioned over a team like the Dolphins who are favoring older & expensive players at key skill positions.  Howard and Ramsey are on the decline.  Hill is holding up well but being a speed guy, he’s at danger of going south quickly once he inevitably loses this superpower.  They now seem to be interested in Cook, who has already begun his decline according to advanced stats.

At this time last year, Quinnen hadn’t taken his big leap (still only 24), Sauce/Garrett/Breece were inexperienced rookies, AVT & Carter II were coming off pretty good rookie years, and DJ Reed (25) was cashing in on his first big season.

Now they are all studs, still with upside based on peak performance studies.

When we look back a year from now, will promising prospects like JJ, Huff, Ruckert, McDonald, Tippmann, Clemons join them??

Exciting times!!

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