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..Salary Cap : 3-year analysis for all 32 NFL teams


jtomm

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1 hour ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Good read.

I’ll take a shot at summarizing the Jets, 

1. They have a top 5 valued roster using current market conditions (not the rookie pay scale some of our best players are being paid on).

2. Our players on rookie contracts are valued in the top 4.

3. Aaron Rodgers CURRENT contract puts some (obvious) pressure on our available cap space from 2023-2025, where it currently sits at #21

4. We are ranked #13th in terms of flexibility to pro-rate salaries to future years.  We’ve done that more the past 2 years.  The Saints are now dead last in this regard 

5. We project to have a large bill for our 2024 pending free agents.  Of course, if we continue to do well drafting & developing, we can let some of these players go .. plus any overpaid vets where JD has generally done a good job of minimizing dead cap hits should the player not perform (Laken Tomlinson, CJ Uzomah aside)

6. Overall, we are currently ranked #3 in cap health.

In my opinion, this is a highly relevant scorecard for a GM that balances drafting, free agency and long term cap management & short term flexibility.

The wins now need to follow.  

Ain't that the rub though?

What is the worst-case scenario for the Jets this season?  Short of an injury to A-A-Ron, I struggle to see the Jets not exceeding last year's win total by 3 or more games.  This is a 12-13 win team in the best division.

You will not (more probable than not) have a first rounder.  Your first pick will be in the 50s.  Your second pick in the 80s.  Not that you can't eff up a top 10 pick.  It is a lot riskier replacing a productive veteran with a late second round pick from Sam Houston.

Do you let Lawson walk?  Quinnen and A-A-Ron will be paid and/or a have a cap hit that will actually start hitting.  It would be the most Jets' thing ever for Becton to ball out and earn a ridiculous contract for one year performance.  Belichick will probably sing him, but that is a story for another day.

My point is that #3 in cap health is a glass half full look.  The Jets have an A-A-Ron window.  It will not be open for long.

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Good read.

I’ll take a shot at summarizing the Jets, 

1. They have a top 5 valued roster using current market conditions (not the rookie pay scale some of our best players are being paid on).

2. Our players on rookie contracts are valued in the top 4.

3. Aaron Rodgers CURRENT contract puts some (obvious) pressure on our available cap space from 2023-2025, where it currently sits at #21

4. We are ranked #13th in terms of flexibility to pro-rate salaries to future years.  We’ve done that more the past 2 years.  The Saints are now dead last in this regard 

5. We project to have a large bill for our 2024 pending free agents.  Of course, if we continue to do well drafting & developing, we can let some of these players go .. plus any overpaid vets where JD has generally done a good job of minimizing dead cap hits should the player not perform (Laken Tomlinson, CJ Uzomah aside)

6. Overall, we are currently ranked #3 in cap health.

In my opinion, this is a highly relevant scorecard for a GM that balances drafting, free agency and long term cap management & short term flexibility.

The wins now need to follow.  

Thank you for posting the above !   😎

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57 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

Ain't that the rub though?

What is the worst-case scenario for the Jets this season?  Short of an injury to A-A-Ron, I struggle to see the Jets not exceeding last year's win total by 3 or more games.  This is a 12-13 win team in the best division.

You will not (more probable than not) have a first rounder.  Your first pick will be in the 50s.  Your second pick in the 80s.  Not that you can't eff up a top 10 pick.  It is a lot riskier replacing a productive veteran with a late second round pick from Sam Houston.

Do you let Lawson walk?  Quinnen and A-A-Ron will be paid and/or a have a cap hit that will actually start hitting.  It would be the most Jets' thing ever for Becton to ball out and earn a ridiculous contract for one year performance.  Belichick will probably sing him, but that is a story for another day.

My point is that #3 in cap health is a glass half full look.  The Jets have an A-A-Ron window.  It will not be open for long.

Good thoughts ..

We don't yet know what Rodger's restructured contract looks like and how much dead space he leaves behind when gone ... let alone how long he plans to play. 

What if he's happy and fulfilled?  Could he play 3 years instead of the 1-2 people have 'thrown around'.  I mean he's 39 years old (turning 40 in December).  If he plays 3 years, his restructured contract might look like attractive.

Beyond that, the Jets window will remain open IF:

1. They can keep their core = Q, Sauce, Garrett, AVT, Breece, DJ.  My hope is that none of them are collateral damage from Rodger's contract

2. They continue to draft & develop well = Carter II, JJ, Huff, Clemons, McDonald, Ruckert, Tippman as a starting point.  Then consider the bets they seem to be making on Sherwood & Adams.  Or the potential in someone like Mitchell

3. They are able to draft or otherwise acquire at least an average starting QB ... which of course projects the further development of the above core can go far with average quarterback play.  Last year we might have won 10 games with average QB play.  If our young core continues to develop as they reach their peak and #2 works out well, then I don't see why we couldn't win 12-13 games per year

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They have plenty who are - or could easily be - expendable based on last year + growth of recent picks already made:

  • JFM $14MM x 2 yrs  = does Clemons make him an expendable luxury, or just quality depth again?
  • LT3 $13MM x 2 yrs = no-brainer cut if he looks anything like '23; also McGovern got no interest as a UFA and can certainly play guard no worse than Tomlinson looked last year. That's aside from an upcoming draft pick.
  • Lawson (expired contract so it doesn't add/save any future cap room; as a bonus, letting him go should net a comp pick)
  • Uzomah ($8MM x 1 yr)
  • Conklin ($7MM x 1 yr) = too early to tell based on Ruckert (and possibly the rookie) showing enough
  • CJM ($17MM x 1 yr) = do I even need to say it?

Need to add $: 

  • Quinnen Williams isn't listed, as though he'll be off the team next year, but y1 and y2 of his extension won't carry huge cap charges proportional to a contract average.
  • They'll need to see about a LT next year, one way or the other, and possibly a RT as well. Both starting tackles for '23 - plus probably the top swing tackle - may be off the '24 roster. Brown will be 39, Becton and Turner both UFAs. It'd go a long way if Mitchell shows up, though I'm half-expecting him to only get such a chance to show anything at all if there are 2 simultaneous tackle injuries. 
  • All those juicy potential cuts will have that $ spent elsewhere, but that's kind of the point: clearing space to put better use to it, not to just have it. So, another LB (maybe two, but two starters need not come via FA), more guard depth or another starter, and a safety (or two, by then). 
  • Likely or not, there is the possibility that Rodgers will call it quits after 1 season. It's less likely, but entering his age 40-41 season it's not chiseled in before his first game snap here. 
  • Maybe they look in another direction at QB2, though it could be a wash $-wise if someone else is willing to take a shot on 1 guaranteed ZW contract year but not 2. Fan opinion aside, it's too early to tell what the team will do. 
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1 hour ago, PFSIKH said:

I struggle to see the Jets not exceeding last year's win total by 3 or more games.  This is a 12-13 win team in the best division.

3 or more Wins... brings us to 10 wins. So you're thinking 5-6 more wins with a much more difficult schedule? 10 should get us at least a WC birth and maybe the division with much more parity in the AFC East.

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The situation would be better if Rodgers hadn’t cost those top draft picks since they would be more easily replace some of the current players that look to be going for higher salaries in the next two or three seasons. The plus side is there are a number of high priced vets who may be able to be replaced through the draft or by lower priced free agents.  Things can change.

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Where the Jets stand among the league in salary cap space after Quinnen Williams extension

Billy Riccette  - July 17, 2023 

The Jets finally took care of their All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, signing him to a four-year extension worth $96 million. In the process, they also saved $3 million in salary cap space by reducing Williams’ cap hit from $9.5 million to about $6.4 million.Per Over the Cap, the Jets now have about $25.8 million in salary cap space. That’s the fourth-highest amount of cap space across the NFL. Only the Chicago Bears ($32,037,189), Arizona Cardinals ($26,679,614) and Carolina Panthers ($26,579,030) have more cap space than the Jets at this point.

The only other team with at least $25 million in cap space is the Indianapolis Colts ($25,191,906) while the Detroit Lions ($22,940,703), Dallas Cowboys ($20,668,161) and Jacksonville Jaguars ($20,246,953) have at least $20 million.The Jets still have to restructure the contract of Aaron Rodgers and can also still restructure C.J. Mosley’s contract and his $21.4 million cap hit. Fortunately, now, the Jets have plenty of breathing room for this season and potential carryover into 2024 as well.

 >>  https://jetswire.usatoday.com/2023/07/17/where-the-jets-stand-among-the-league-in-salary-cap-space-after-quinnen-williams-extension/

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Aaron Rodgers has a cap hit of $1.2mm.   To say that you have $26mm of cap space while paying your All Pro QB $1.2mm is somewhat misleading.   Rodgers original contract had a cap/comp value of around $15mm for 2023, which was more reasonable.

The Jets can save themselves $17mm in cash by letting Mosley go, and save $6.5mm on the cap.   The question is what Mosley's replacement costs-if he costs $6.5, it saves nothing on the cap (but saves Woody $10.5mm in cash.   The right answer for Mosley is to agree to take less cash money, which will both save the Jets cash and cap space.  If the Jets cut him, Mosley is not signing for $17mm.  Maybe $5mm.

But JD can't make this move unless he has someone else who can play the position.  

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On 7/21/2023 at 11:53 AM, varjet said:

Aaron Rodgers has a cap hit of $1.2mm.   To say that you have $26mm of cap space while paying your All Pro QB $1.2mm is somewhat misleading.   Rodgers original contract had a cap/comp value of around $15mm for 2023, which was more reasonable.

The Jets can save themselves $17mm in cash by letting Mosley go, and save $6.5mm on the cap.   The question is what Mosley's replacement costs-if he costs $6.5, it saves nothing on the cap (but saves Woody $10.5mm in cash.   The right answer for Mosley is to agree to take less cash money, which will both save the Jets cash and cap space.  If the Jets cut him, Mosley is not signing for $17mm.  Maybe $5mm.

But JD can't make this move unless he has someone else who can play the position.  

..i think we're goin'  to hold on to mosley.     jd might have to do some  " creative accounting "  though  😉

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Aaron Rodgers’ cap hit for Jets less than a quarter of his cap hit for Packers

Aaron Rodgers reworked his deal with the New York Jets and agreed to take $35 million less over the next two seasons than he was originally going to take before the deal was restructured.Rodgers’ new deal pays him $75 million guaranteed between this season and next and also includes a non-guaranteed $37.5 million base salary in 2025. New York also added four void years to the contract to spread out the cap hit.

As a result, Rodgers counts less than $9 million against the salary cap for the Jets in 2023. As it turns out, that also is about 25 percent of his cap hit for his former team, the Green Bay Packers.When the Packers traded Rodgers to the Jets, they also incurred a dead money hit of about $40 million that they will carry this season before Rodgers completely comes off the books in 2024.

Aaron Rodgers cap hits in 2023: For the #Packers: 40.3M For the #Jets: 8.8M
 
Even next season’s cap hit for Rodgers is still less than half of Green Bay’s dead money charge for Rodgers this season. Rodgers’ cap hit next season is a little over $17 million.Also, Rodgers now has a lower cap charge than Zach Wilson, who has a $9.6 million cap hit.
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On 7/27/2023 at 2:17 PM, jtomm said:
Aaron Rodgers cap hits in 2023: For the #Packers: 40.3M For the #Jets: 8.8M
 
Even next season’s cap hit for Rodgers is still less than half of Green Bay’s dead money charge for Rodgers this season. Rodgers’ cap hit next season is a little over $17 million.Also, Rodgers now has a lower cap charge than Zach Wilson, who has a $9.6 million cap hit.

Still can’t believe he actually made this sacrifice. Compare this contract to Daniel Jones deal! 

I wonder if Rodgers gets to open ayahuasca stands throughout Met Life Stadium? Similar to Brady’s deal with Kraft.

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--- 4. Rodger that: You can crunch the numbers and create spreadsheets to explain the salary-cap ramifications of Rodgers' $35 million give-back, but his unprecedented gesture goes way beyond the financials. It could have a generation impact on the Jets, setting a team-first tone that should resonate with younger players even after he's gone.

"Who wouldn't want a leader like that? Who wouldn't want to go to war with a guy like that?" second-year safety Tony Adams said.

Former quarterback Tom Brady took some below-market contracts to help his teams, but he never returned guaranteed salary. What Rodgers did was quite extraordinary.

5. Down the road: Under his revised contract, Rodgers' cap hits are $8.9 million, $17.2 million and $51.5 million. He'd better play more than one season, because there's a $66 million "dead" charge if he bolts after a year, per Spotrac.If he plays two years, it drops to a $49 million hit in 2025. With a post-June 1 release, that can be spread out to $14 million (2025) and $35 million (2026).

6. Coincidence? Rodgers' $35 million pay cut is basically the equivalent of Zach Wilson's entire contract.

7. Big, big bucks: The Jets have the NFL's highest cash payroll ($306 million), according to Over The Cap. Rodgers' re-worked deal and Quinnen Williams extension added about $51 million in 2023 compensation and vaulted them to the top of the list.

rest of above article  >>   https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/92219/signing-dalvin-cook-could-give-new-york-jets-ridiculous-backfield

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Jets QB Aaron Rodgers explains why he took $35 million pay cut

  • Published: Jul. 31, 2023, 1:35 p.m.

Last week, Aaron Rodgers agreed to a deal with the Jets that will pay him $75 million guaranteed over the next two seasons. Rodgers was set to make $110 million guaranteed in his deal with the Packers, so that’s a $35 million pay cut.And with that, the four-time MVP showed his commitment to his new team.

“What it comes down to is … it was the right thing that made me feel best,” Rodgers said to Peter King of NBC Sports. “I thought it was important they knew how committed I was. And in my conversations with [GM] Joe [Douglas], he has made it very clear the vision for the football team. You probably agree with this. This year, compared to like 2005, the amount of transactions that happen now with guys getting cut and the amount of trades -- way more than before. Big names move at the trade deadline now. I wanted to make sure that if somebody valuable came available that we’d be able to get him. I’m very happy with the contract. I feel great about it.”The Jets have room now to continue to explore free agent talent, and hosted Dalvin Cook this weekend.

Rodgers’ decision struck a chord with his new teammates.

“That says he wants to give back that money so we get more guys to make this team... where his mind frame is,” safety Tony Adams said, via NJ Advance Media’s Joey Chandler. “I ain’t gonna say too much, but I think he’s thinkin’ Super Bowl, like why not? That says a lot about him and says a lot about how he cares for this team. Who wouldn’t want a leader like that? Who wouldn’t want to go to war with a guy like that?”

 >>   https://www.nj.com/sports/2023/07/jets-qb-aaron-rodgers-explains-why-he-took-35-million-pay-cut.html

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What the Jets Should Do With Their Newfound Cap Space…

3. Now that Rodgers, Williams, and every member of the 2023 rookie class all have new contracts, what would you do with the final $15.98 million in cap space ahead of a win-now season?

BG:

I’m dishing out a Cook contract with a $4M or $5M base with up to $2M or $3M in incentives.That way if Breece Hall is anyway compromised, you’re covered. If he comes back strong then you have what the kids call a first-world problem.I’d also explore some additional depth at either linebacker or safety — probably linebacker. The Alexander dream is dead with him in Pittsburgh, and I want some security at the second level of the defense. If C.J. Mosley or Quincy Williams gets hurt, the Jets don’t have any great answers behind them.

MO:

I wouldn’t waste any money on Cook or a running back, personally. Instead, I’d take that cap space and commit all-in at either offensive tackle or wide receiver on the trade market.The O-tackles have been downright bad in training camp — outside of second-year prospect Max Mitchell. To me, that’s the biggest concern heading into the 2023 season.At the same time, it’s unlikely that you find OT help at this stage of the summer and the next best thing is more weapons. That’s why I’d consider upgrading on Corey Davis via trade.

It’s a bit unfair to Davis to cut him this late, but the Jets may only get one or two chances at winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers and they can’t waste them. Call the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and see what it would take to land Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Hell, I’d even check in on Davante Adams.I’m not sure if there’s an upgrade to be had around the league, but you can still free up $10.5 million by releasing Davis if you’re able to find one. That, plus the Rodgers money, should be enough to bring in another star.

4. Kwon Alexander has officially signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Should the Jets start Jamien Sherwood at strongside linebacker in 2023, or pursue a different veteran in place of Alexander?

BG:

That feeds into my last answer. I’m fine with Sherwood filling the Alexander role from last season — which featured him playing in 49 percent of the defensive snaps. I’m not as high on Sherwood as some other people, but I’m cool with him being the guy.Having said that, I do want more depth just in case. The Jets are entering an all-in season and you can’t get complacent with roster construction. You have to keep trying to improve other parts of the initial 53 and linebacker is a position I’d pursue.

I love Deion Jones, plus he has a connection to several members of the coaching staff and could be had dirt cheap. Give me that athletic piece of clay and let Robert Saleh wave his magic wand and turn him into a star.

MO:

Boy Green nailed it here. It’s less about Sherwood starting and more about what’s behind him — and Mosley/Quincy Williams — should injuries occur.If you don’t sign a starting candidate like Myles Jack, Rashaan Evans or Anthony Barr, how about at least upgrading on Hamsah Nasirildeen and the fourth linebacker role? Rookie Zaire Barnes should factor into that competition too, but I’d prefer a more versatile veteran joining the group.

The Jets had Marcell Harris in this role last year, and he ended up being useful. Another affordable option could be someone like Nick Vigil or Jayon Brown.

  rest of above article  >>   https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/jets-cut-candidates-highlighted-for-changing-their-fate-at-camp/ar-AA1eBuiv

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  • 1 month later...
  • Rich Cimini, ESPN Staff Writer
  • Sep 3, 2023
  •  
  • FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- A look at what's happening around the New York Jets:
  •  
  • - - -  6. Money to burn: The Jets head into the regular season with $20.3 million in cap space, according to Over the Cap, which will allow them to add a big salary at the trading deadline. That's something to watch, assuming they're still in contention.Douglas acknowledged that Rodgers' $35 million voluntary pay cut provides that kind of opportunity. It came with the tacit understanding that it needs to be used for roster bolstering.

"It's almost like an unspoken thing," Douglas said. "You know if you're doing this, there's a reason why he's doing this. So it's going to give us great flexibility moving forward."One name that surely will surface in the rumor mill is Bucs receiver Mike Evans, 30, currently engaged in a contract dispute as he looks for an extension. The Jets lost a big target in Corey Davis (6-foot-3), who retired. Evans (6-foot-5) has the body type to fill that role.

rest of above article  >>   https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/92333/blast-from-the-jets-quarterback-past-offers-sage-advice-to-zach-wilson

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