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Guess some of you need to hear this: Zach Wilson (and his $23 mil 5th yr option) has no Future in NY


Paradis

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On 8/13/2023 at 9:23 PM, Paradis said:

Seriously, some of you need to be walked through this?… Forget his dumpster fire play on the field — Aaron committing to at least 2024 officially (and thankfully) ends any speculation. 

we’re not picking up Zach’s roughly $23+ million dollar 5th year option. 

we’re not gonna double down on him with an extension in 2024 after backing up Arod for 2 yrs

we’re not going to forego drafting a QB in 2025 or signing a veteran because “let’s run it back with Zach”

it’s over. Done. He’ll be cut or traded long before he ever gets named QB1 again here. 

The second biggest reason the Jets wanted Arod was so he could teach Zach and turn him into a starter so they could go from one to the other when Arod hangs em' up.  I thought this was completely obvious, but I guess not to everyone.

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3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Most likely scenario: Aaron plays for 2 years, Zach returns on a "prove-it" deal in 2025 to compete for the starting job. Money is not his primary motivation, being put in a position to be a successful NFL QB is. He doesn't want to leave and has bought into making it work with this organization. If all goes well over the next 2 years, the coaching staff/decision makers will all be the same, hypothetically easing his transition into starter. Part of hiring Hackett was with the intention that this could be a long-term In recent years we have 2 case studies similar: Geno Smith and Jameis Winston. No guarantees it would go according to plan, and there would be contingencies (i.e. drafting or signing someone to legitimately compete for the starting job), but the organization has confidence in Zach that his career could have a positive career arch post-Rodgers, and Zach feels similarly. 

Is there a chance that Rodgers gets injured, Zach plays extremely well in his absence, and the Jets decide to pick up the option with the intent that Zach is locked in as starter for 2025? Yes. The top 18 QBs in the NFL make over $24.25 million per year, so the Jets could rationalize picking it up to ensure not losing him in 2025 as opposed to using a franchise tag, which would be far more expensive. There's also a chance Rodgers decides he wants to play 3-4 years and there is enough league-wide interest in Zach that the Jets trade him before even making a decision on his option.

I don't think anything is off the table, but the "plan" is for Zach to succeed Aaron. The biggest question I have is whether Zach would be willing to wait 3+ years if Rodgers were to return in 2025. In that case, Zach would likely have to sign a cheap backup contract and wouldn't get his chance to be a full-time starter until his age 27 season. I don't think he's thinking that far ahead yet, but its important to keep in mind that Aaron (3 years as backup) and Steve Young (5 years as backup) are his two most influential mentors. 

What makes you think the bolded is true? I strongly suspect he’d be interested in a fresh start away from the spotlight and closer to home.

I’m also far from convinced the Jets are actually still invested in him and think barring the impossible there’s zero chance they pick up that option.

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I guess the question that comes to my mind is this: 

Is there any historical precedent for a top draft pick (like Zach, #2 overall), who comes in and starts for two full seasons, but is historically bad in his performance/production (amongst the worst in the league both years), who then is outright benched, sits as a backup for two full seasons, and is then resigned by the team that drafted him to start again?

Nope.  Never happened in NFL history.

It's also true that no QB as bad as Zach Wilson his first 2 years has ever turned into a FQB or even serviceable starter for the team that drafted him.

But Zach Wilson is special and stuff.

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1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

The second biggest reason the Jets wanted Arod was so he could teach Zach and turn him into a starter so they could go from one to the other when Arod hangs em' up.  I thought this was completely obvious, but I guess not to everyone.

The biggest reason the Jets went all in on Rodgers is Zach set the team back and both Saleh and Douglas are on the clock.   Zach is on the roster because he was paid for this year in advance.  

As much as Douglas loves his picks, they have allready moved on from Moore and Mimms and are show cassing Becton at LT while leaving the impression that he's the starting RT.

Because of Zach Saleh was forced to unload Lefluer who obviously is thought highly of in league circles and Hackett was brought in after a dissaster of a year simply to get Rodgers.  

The plan for Zach this year is they hope he doesn't take a snap.  There is no long term plan for Zach.  He hasn't shown enough to be in anyone's long term plans. 

This is the NFL what's obvious is Zach isn't a starting QB.  The businesss of the Jets this year is to win.  It's not to develop Zach Wilson.  That's not even on the radar of this team as currently constructed. 

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope.  Never happened in NFL history.

It's also true that no QB as bad as Zach Wilson his first 2 years has ever turned into a FQB or even serviceable starter for the team that drafted him.

But Zach Wilson is special and stuff.

Aye, that's sorta my point to the Zach Wilson believers: 

Is Zach Wilson the guy you truly believe will have an unprecedented turnaround in his play quality/production AND do so in an unprecedented way (staying with his team after being benched for several years, resigning, etc.)

You sorta have to believe both things (1. massive turnaround and 2. He'll do it here, not elsewhere) for this whole idea to have legs.

That's an awful lot of unprecedented.  

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31 minutes ago, football guy said:

Most likely scenario: Aaron plays for 2 years, Zach returns on a "prove-it" deal in 2025 to compete for the starting job. Money is not his primary motivation, being put in a position to be a successful NFL QB is. He doesn't want to leave and has bought into making it work with this organization. If all goes well over the next 2 years, the coaching staff/decision makers will all be the same, hypothetically easing his transition into starter. Part of hiring Hackett was with the intention that this could be a long-term, as its highly unlikely he will get another opportunity as a head coach (and some say he wouldn't even want it). In recent years we have 2 case studies similar: Geno Smith and Jameis Winston. No guarantees it would go according to plan, and there would be contingencies (i.e. drafting or signing someone to legitimately compete for the starting job), but the organization has confidence in Zach that his career could have a positive career arch post-Rodgers, and Zach feels similarly. 

Is there a chance that Rodgers gets injured, Zach plays extremely well in his absence, and the Jets decide to pick up the option with the intent that Zach is locked in as starter for 2025? Yes. The top 18 QBs in the NFL make over $24.25 million per year, so the Jets could rationalize picking it up to ensure not losing him in 2025 as opposed to using a franchise tag, which would be far more expensive. There's also a chance Rodgers decides he wants to play 3-4 years and there is enough league-wide interest in Zach that the Jets trade him before even making a decision on his option.

I don't think anything is off the table, but the "plan" is for Zach to succeed Aaron. The biggest question I have is whether Zach would be willing to wait 3+ years if Rodgers were to return in 2025. In that case, Zach would likely have to sign a cheap backup contract and wouldn't get his chance to be a full-time starter until his age 27 season. I don't think he's thinking that far ahead yet, but its important to keep in mind that Aaron (3 years as backup) and Steve Young (5 years as backup) are his two most influential mentors. 

This is all logical and reasonable in theory.

But the bottom line is Zach Wilson doesn't have the goods.  He probably has enough from a physical "talent" POV, but the odds of him putting everything together are slim to none.

If the Jets are truly counting on this, they are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Geno Smith never looked this bad as a starting QB with the Jets. 

Wilson was literally booed off the field, disgraced himself publicly after the NE game, lost the locker room, and publicly acknowledged losing his confidence.

That's a lot to try and come back from, on top of all the work / training he must put in on the field and mentally to fix his problems.

He was so freaking bad in Denver.  Rypien outplayed him.  He embarrassed himself and the organization  in prime time vs the Jags.

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Zach Wilson's college highlights consisted of:

1) Chucking downfield boundary 50/50 balls to Dax Milne

2) Hitting WRs in wide open swaths of grass with no defenders in sight

3) Big plays on scrambles and RPO runs

The guy struggled big-time when pressured, never demonstrated the basic skills (e.g. footwork, pocket movement / poise / awareness, etc.) required to make a successful NFL transition. 

Just watch his game vs U of W.

He made bank off a combination of raw stats in a COVID year where the Boca Raton Bowl or whatever vs UCF was his crowning achievement and a stupid pro day throw against air.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Aye, that's sorta my point to the Zach Wilson believers: 

Is Zach Wilson the guy you truly believe will have an unprecedented turnaround in his play quality/production AND do so in an unprecedented way (staying with his team after being benched for several years, resigning, etc.)

You sorta have to believe both things (1. massive turnaround and 2. He'll do it here, not elsewhere) for this whole idea to have legs.

That's an awful lot of unprecedented.  

 

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47 minutes ago, football guy said:

Most likely scenario: Aaron plays for 2 years, Zach returns on a "prove-it" deal in 2025 to compete for the starting job. Money is not his primary motivation, being put in a position to be a successful NFL QB is. He doesn't want to leave and has bought into making it work with this organization. If all goes well over the next 2 years, the coaching staff/decision makers will all be the same, hypothetically easing his transition into starter. Part of hiring Hackett was with the intention that this could be a long-term, as its highly unlikely he will get another opportunity as a head coach (and some say he wouldn't even want it). In recent years we have 2 case studies similar: Geno Smith and Jameis Winston. No guarantees it would go according to plan, and there would be contingencies (i.e. drafting or signing someone to legitimately compete for the starting job), but the organization has confidence in Zach that his career could have a positive career arch post-Rodgers, and Zach feels similarly. 

Is there a chance that Rodgers gets injured, Zach plays extremely well in his absence, and the Jets decide to pick up the option with the intent that Zach is locked in as starter for 2025? Yes. The top 18 QBs in the NFL make over $24.25 million per year, so the Jets could rationalize picking it up to ensure not losing him in 2025 as opposed to using a franchise tag, which would be far more expensive. There's also a chance Rodgers decides he wants to play 3-4 years and there is enough league-wide interest in Zach that the Jets trade him before even making a decision on his option.

I don't think anything is off the table, but the "plan" is for Zach to succeed Aaron. The biggest question I have is whether Zach would be willing to wait 3+ years if Rodgers were to return in 2025. In that case, Zach would likely have to sign a cheap backup contract and wouldn't get his chance to be a full-time starter until his age 27 season. I don't think he's thinking that far ahead yet, but its important to keep in mind that Aaron (3 years as backup) and Steve Young (5 years as backup) are his two most influential mentors. 

You may be an "insider", but I frankly think you're living in a dream world if you believe this.

Worse, JD is living in a dream world if HE believes this.

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

You may be an "insider", but I frankly think you're living in a dream world if you believe this.

Worse, JD is living in a dream world if HE believes this.

The only kind word that I can come up with for those who believe parting with premium capital and $75M for a 39 year old replacement demonstrates confidence in Zach is… nevermind, I can’t come up with a kind word after all.

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53 minutes ago, football guy said:

Most likely scenario: Aaron plays for 2 years, Zach returns on a "prove-it" deal in 2025 to compete for the starting job. Money is not his primary motivation, being put in a position to be a successful NFL QB is. He doesn't want to leave and has bought into making it work with this organization. If all goes well over the next 2 years, the coaching staff/decision makers will all be the same, hypothetically easing his transition into starter. Part of hiring Hackett was with the intention that this could be a long-term, as its highly unlikely he will get another opportunity as a head coach (and some say he wouldn't even want it). In recent years we have 2 case studies similar: Geno Smith and Jameis Winston. No guarantees it would go according to plan, and there would be contingencies (i.e. drafting or signing someone to legitimately compete for the starting job), but the organization has confidence in Zach that his career could have a positive career arch post-Rodgers, and Zach feels similarly. 

Is there a chance that Rodgers gets injured, Zach plays extremely well in his absence, and the Jets decide to pick up the option with the intent that Zach is locked in as starter for 2025? Yes. The top 18 QBs in the NFL make over $24.25 million per year, so the Jets could rationalize picking it up to ensure not losing him in 2025 as opposed to using a franchise tag, which would be far more expensive. There's also a chance Rodgers decides he wants to play 3-4 years and there is enough league-wide interest in Zach that the Jets trade him before even making a decision on his option.

I don't think anything is off the table, but the "plan" is for Zach to succeed Aaron. The biggest question I have is whether Zach would be willing to wait 3+ years if Rodgers were to return in 2025. In that case, Zach would likely have to sign a cheap backup contract and wouldn't get his chance to be a full-time starter until his age 27 season. I don't think he's thinking that far ahead yet, but its important to keep in mind that Aaron (3 years as backup) and Steve Young (5 years as backup) are his two most influential mentors. 

welcome back

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On 8/13/2023 at 9:23 PM, Paradis said:

Seriously, some of you need to be walked through this?… Forget his dumpster fire play on the field — Aaron committing to at least 2024 officially (and thankfully) ends any speculation. 

we’re not picking up Zach’s roughly $23+ million dollar 5th year option. 

we’re not gonna double down on him with an extension in 2024 after backing up Arod for 2 yrs

we’re not going to forego drafting a QB in 2025 or signing a veteran because “let’s run it back with Zach”

it’s over. Done. He’ll be cut or traded long before he ever gets named QB1 again here. 

Depends on how he develops this year.  Although unlikely, if he starts to show real development, a $23MM option is not unrealistic.  If they see enough development to pick up the option, they could always trade him before ever having to pay it.  That would give them a second year to decide if he is a future option for this team.

 

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2 hours ago, PFSIKH said:

Off the top of my head, let's start with Green Bay.  The Packers did not pick up Love's 5th year option, but did agree to a contract through 2024.

Bucs.  Mayfield, Trask oh my.  The Commanders.

Or maybe an enterprising team like the Chiefs.  Let the QB Whisperer fix him with absolutely no pressure.

I am not saying he is walking in or starting anywhere.  The Jets are not going to get anything more than a 7th round pick with conditions to make it a 5th round pick at best.  He has talent.  Someone will give him a shot in hopes of finding a Steve Youngish career revival.

 

 

 

You’ve hit the nail on the head why none of the (very rare) QB turnarounds has ever happened for the team that drafted him… because someone will likely believe he was mismanaged and salvageable and value him more than the team who knows first-hand that he sucks.

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10 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

Depends on how he develops this year.  Although unlikely, if he starts to show real development, a $23MM option is not unrealistic.  If they see enough development to pick up the option, they could always trade him before ever having to pay it.  That would give them a second year to decide if he is a future option for this team.

 

This is a matryoshka of “if’s,” each one compounding the improbability of your conclusion that the option “is not unrealistic.”

And if bears could fly planes it’s not unrealistic for one to be hired by Lufthansa.

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18 minutes ago, Warfish said:

You may be an "insider", but I frankly think you're living in a dream world if you believe this.

Worse, JD is living in a dream world if HE believes this.

Football Guy was saying year 2 Zach was a "night and day difference" from year 1 because he watched tape with some QB Coach or something.  He also once accused @JiF of banging his dog and sent him some nasty PM's in truly unhinged fashion.

Dude takes a thing one person with "connections" says and reiterates it as gospel.  If he's truly an insider he's an easily duped one and also thinks he's super knowledgeable about football purely by proxy.  

I'm team @Mogglez for life.

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14 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

Although unlikely, if he starts to show real development, a $23MM option is not unrealistic. 

Yes.  It is.  Under no circumstances does the 5th year option make sense.  None.  Either hand him a 1-year "prove it" extension (which ought to be much less than $23M) or let him walk.  No one is paying him $23M on the open market so the Jets have no incentive to do so either.  Especially with Rodgers' massive contract on the books.

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1 hour ago, football guy said:

Most likely scenario: Aaron plays for 2 years, Zach returns on a "prove-it" deal in 2025 to compete for the starting job.

By far the most likely scenario is that Zach is not a Jet after his 4th year.

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4 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is a matryoshka of “if’s,” each one compounding the improbability of your conclusion that the option “is not unrealistic.”

And if a bear could fly a plane it’s not unrealistic for him to be hired by Lufthansa.

That is why the response started with depends.  Is Rodgers here for 2 years or is he here for 3 or 4?  We are not picking up an option for a year that Rodgers is expected to be the starter.  If Rodgers is not going to be here, then picking up the option would only happen if they are excited by Zach's development.   The most likely is they do not pick up the option.  If he looks like a viable starting option, they could probably re-sign him easily, given that he is unlikely to start next year either.  

As stated, although unlikely, if Zach suddenly shows the kind of development to be a potential franchise quarterback, would they take a chance of developing him only to set up another franchise?   The Jets are making a huge investment in Zach and management will look for any excuse to not acknowledge they blew the #2 pick.   A $23MM option sounds outrageous but not when you realize that Daniel Jones got $40MM after 3 bad years and a 4th year where he soared to 15 TD's thrown.

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Has anyone noticed that the same folks now resting on "we'll see if Zach develops while being the backup" are in many cases the same folks who insisted Zach must start right away without any competition, because QB's don't develop while backing up, they only learn by playing.....

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4 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

That is why the response started with depends.  Is Rodgers here for 2 years or is he here for 3 or 4?  We are not picking up an option for a year that Rodgers is expected to be the starter.  If Rodgers is not going to be here, then picking up the option would only happen if they are excited by Zach's development. 
 

He’s not going to see a dime of new money for the Jets absent demonstrating FQB qualities on the field… in games that count. 2.9% chance that Zach is a Jet after his 4th year, and that is construing the probability in his favor for ease of calculation.

4 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

 The most likely is they do not pick up the option.  If he looks like a viable starting option, they could probably re-sign him easily, given that he is unlikely to start next year either.  
 

Re-signing requires mutual agreement. Most busts also want a fresh start. Some team will believe (falsely) that he can be salvaged and value him more than the Jets who know first-hand that he just sucks.

4 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

 

As stated, although unlikely, if Zach suddenly shows the kind of development to be a potential franchise quarterback, would they take a chance of developing him only to set up another franchise?   The Jets are making a huge investment in Zach and management will look for any excuse to not acknowledge they blew the #2 pick.   A $23MM option sounds outrageous but not when you realize that Daniel Jones got $40MM after 3 bad years and a 4th year where he soared to 15 TD's thrown.

Daniel Jones is 100x better than Zach… and he sucks. We are dealing with a historical incompetent at his position here.

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On 8/13/2023 at 9:23 PM, Paradis said:

Seriously, some of you need to be walked through this?… Forget his dumpster fire play on the field — Aaron committing to at least 2024 officially (and thankfully) ends any speculation. 

we’re not picking up Zach’s roughly $23+ million dollar 5th year option. 

we’re not gonna double down on him with an extension in 2024 after backing up Arod for 2 yrs

we’re not going to forego drafting a QB in 2025 or signing a veteran because “let’s run it back with Zach”

it’s over. Done. He’ll be cut or traded long before he ever gets named QB1 again here. 

Not possible that Zach shows he deserves a shot, the jets decline his 5th year option, and give him a 2 year contract that pays him mike white type money? I’m not holding my breath for Zach but there have been some late bloomers in the NFL before. 

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American Football GIF by Seattle Seahawks

For all the 'know it alls' who guarantee things. ZW may not be here much longer, but haven't any of you learned anything, or do you just ignore all your misses as though you bat 1.000? It's like ZW broke your heart, and now there's nothing but hate for him as though you're some stage five clinger female who has to take shots at her ex whenever possible. Fact is the Jets, as they usually do, drafted a QB in the first, and then ****ed it up. Maybe the player can redeem himself with the right system/staff, and some time to be coached up. We'll see how things go either way. Chances are his time here is done, but maybe his time isn't done here, and those of you claiming to know absolutes should start being honest with yourself about how many times you've been wrong and right. We've all been wrong on this board often regardless of what your ego tells you. For the record once ZW is off the team I won't give a sh*t about him as I root for his Jets jersey. However, until then I'll hope for the best knowing that it's in the Jets interest for him to succeed, even if in limited duty so he can be traded for something instead of just cut, as opposed to those here who have actively or passively rooted for him to fail at every step often for petty reasons like wanting to have drafted someone else. Geno isn't amazing but he showed he wasn't dog sh*t either, and can win at this level. Maybe if his initial coach here at the time wasn't a blatant clown Geno would have learned a little about maturity and discipline earlier, but even then there were people rooting against him even before he took a snap for the Jets.     

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