Rookie Running Backs Do Not Need Time to Develop

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

In all the discussion about whether to sign Cook or go with Carter, Knight and Abanikanda, some people keep stating that rookie running backs need time to develop and learn the pro game. That is a fallacy. Running back is a plug and play position and the large majority of rookie running backs play and produce right away.  

 

There is no reason why Abanikanda can't play a major role in this backfield if Hall isn't ready.

Just look at the backs drafted in 21 and 22:

2022

• Hall - 2nd round - NYJ - on pace for OROY with 99 touches in 7 games
• Walker - 2nd round - Sea - starter with 258 touches
• Cook - 2nd - Buff - back up 110 touches
• White - 3rd - TB - co-starter with 179 touches
• Davis Price - 3rd - SF - bench on team with loaded RB room
• Robinson - 3rd Was - 214 touches (recovery from gunshot wound)
• Pierce - 4th - Hou - starter - 250 touches
• White - 4th LV - back up behind Jacobs
• Spiller - 4th LAC - back up behind Ekeler
• Strong - 4th NE - back up behind Stevenson (see below)
• Haskins - 4th Ten - back up behind Henry
• Allgier - 5th Alt - starter with 237 touches
• Conner - 5th Jax - back up behind Etienne
• Ford - 5th Clev - back up behind Chubb and Hunt
• Williams - 5th - LAR - back up - 94 touches
• Chandler - 5th Min - back up behind Cook and Mattison
• Pacheco =7th KC - eventual starter - 199 touches

2021

• Harris - 1st - Pitt - 381 touches
• Etienne - 1st Jax - injured
• Williams -2nd - Den - co starter - 246 touches
• Sermon - 3rd SF - bust -
• Carter - 3rd NYJ - 183 touches
• Stevenson - 3rd NE - co starter 147 touches
• Hubbard - 4th Car - 197 touches
• Gainwell - 5th Phi - 101 touches in crowded backfield
• Mitchell  - 5th - SF - 226 touches

The only rookie RBs who do not get 100-300 touches are those that are sitting behind established bellcow RBs and the occasional bust (Sermon).  Every other rookie RB on a team with an opportunity had a significant role.  

 

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Plug and play 

[Beerfish]

For the most part this is correct, the only issues comes with blocking and knowing your assignments, no other position is close as far as immediate impact, part of the reason they do not get paid.

[Death2NE]

In all the discussion about whether to sign Cook or go with Carter, Knight and Abanikanda, some people keep stating that rookie running backs need time to develop and learn the pro game. That is a fallacy. Running back is a plug and play position and the large majority of rookie running backs play and produce right away.  
 
There is no reason why Abanikanda can't play a major role in this backfield if Hall isn't ready.
Just look at the backs drafted in 21 and 22:
2022

• Hall - 2nd round - NYJ - on pace for OROY with 99 touches in 7 games
• Walker - 2nd round - Sea - starter with 258 touches
• Cook - 2nd - Buff - back up 110 touches
• White - 3rd - TB - co-starter with 179 touches
• Davis Price - 3rd - SF - bench on team with loaded RB room
• Robinson - 3rd Was - 214 touches (recovery from gunshot wound)
• Pierce - 4th - Hou - starter - 250 touches
• White - 4th LV - back up behind Jacobs
• Spiller - 4th LAC - back up behind Ekeler
• Strong - 4th NE - back up behind Stevenson (see below)
• Haskins - 4th Ten - back up behind Henry
• Allgier - 5th Alt - starter with 237 touches
• Conner - 5th Jax - back up behind Etienne
• Ford - 5th Clev - back up behind Chubb and Hunt
• Williams - 5th - LAR - back up - 94 touches
• Chandler - 5th Min - back up behind Cook and Mattison
• Pacheco =7th KC - eventual starter - 199 touches

2021

• Harris - 1st - Pitt - 381 touches
• Etienne - 1st Jax - injured
• Williams -2nd - Den - co starter - 246 touches
• Sermon - 3rd SF - bust -
• Carter - 3rd NYJ - 183 touches
• Stevenson - 3rd NE - co starter 147 touches
• Hubbard - 4th Car - 197 touches
• Gainwell - 5th Phi - 101 touches in crowded backfield
• Mitchell  - 5th - SF - 226 touches

The only rookie RBs who do not get 100-300 touches are those that are sitting behind established bellcow RBs and the occasional bust (Sermon).  Every other rookie RB on a team with an opportunity had a significant role.  
 
 

Exactly , if they see touches as a rookie you can basically point the arrow down from game 1 to retirement except for maybe improvements as a pass blocker or knowing assignments like beerfish said… I hear people say this all the time too about rookie rbs developing and it annoys me lol any statistical improvement is scheme or o line play not the rb gaining new physical skills


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[NYJCAP2]

18 hours ago, Beerfish said:

For the most part this is correct, the only issues comes with blocking and knowing your assignments, no other position is close as far as immediate impact, part of the reason they do not get paid.

Agreed, with the amount of checks and audibles at the line Rodgers will call, better to bring the young runners up to speed gradually in pass pro.

[rangerous]

19 hours ago, Beerfish said:

For the most part this is correct, the only issues comes with blocking and knowing your assignments, no other position is close as far as immediate impact, part of the reason they do not get paid.

Blocking, especially being able to pick up that free rusher is extremely important.  I don’t think rookie running backs are really prepared that prepared.

[Dunnie]

4 hours ago, Death2NE said:

Exactly , if they see touches as a rookie you can basically point the arrow down from game 1 to retirement except for maybe improvements as a pass blocker or knowing assignments like beerfish said… I hear people say this all the time too about rookie rbs developing and it annoys me lol any statistical improvement is scheme or o line play not the rb gaining new physical skills


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Somewhat disagree ...

... Aside from learning how to pickup blitzes and get better at pass pro ...

... some running backs can get better by learning how to read the line as it open holes in front of them, and NOT run directly into the back of the Guards. They can also become better pass catchers and route runners out of the backfield.

That being said .. I agree that they are mostly ready made.




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Edited August 15, 2023 by Dunnie

[FidelioJet]

This is assuming Abanikanda is a good RB.  

Which we don't yet.  He's looked okay against third string players, but I'm not prepared to count on him opening this season as your primary back.

 

[Warfish]

RB’s don’t need to be developed, although most seem to need to be taught pro-style blocking.

But most RB’s are JAG’s who’ll never be good or great. Not all are worth feeding 250 touches to.

We have two, Carter and Knight. Serviceable JAG’s perhaps, nothing more. 

Going into this all-in year with AR with a ? In Hall, a ? In Izzy and two JAG’s? Clearly JD wasn’t going to take that risk with his extension on the line. And Izzy is a change of pace, HR hitter type back, not a bell cow whose going to absorb 30 NFL carries and hits week after week.

If all Cook costs us is 2023 money and either Carter and/or Knight, it’s 100% worth it to try and win now, in the abstract. There are Carters and Knights every year in the draft in the later rounds or UDFA.

Only actual results will truly tell the tale, of course.

[slats]

18 minutes ago, rangerous said:

Blocking, especially being able to pick up that free rusher is extremely important.  I don’t think rookie running backs are really prepared that prepared.

Good thing we signed a veteran who also isn’t prepared to pass protect. 

[Asymmetrical]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

Good thing we signed a veteran who also isn’t prepared to pass protect. 

 

yeahh... if he was an ace pass pro guy then I'd feel better about it but oh well

[More Cowbell]

This is true for players who are only runners. If you are asked to catch passes, you need to be a good route runner and as mentioned, there is the blitz pickups. 

[BCJet]

1 hour ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Agreed, with the amount of checks and audibles at the line Rodgers will call, better to bring the young runners up to speed gradually in pass pro.

While I do not want it to be crystal clear every time Izzy goes into the game that we are running, I do think in this particular situation you can really hide his pass pro and keep him strictly as a runner.

Carter is a good receiver out of the backfield and a decent runner so he could easily be out there on any possible pass plays.  Izzy is really just going to be used as fresh legs to possibly break a run in the 2nd and 4th quarters so he could likely only be used in pass pro 2-3 times per game.  

[JoJoTownsell1]

52 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

This is true for players who are only runners. If you are asked to catch passes, you need to be a good route runner and as mentioned, there is the blitz pickups. 

 

21 hours ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

In all the discussion about whether to sign Cook or go with Carter, Knight and Abanikanda, some people keep stating that rookie running backs need time to develop and learn the pro game. That is a fallacy. Running back is a plug and play position and the large majority of rookie running backs play and produce right away.  

 

There is no reason why Abanikanda can't play a major role in this backfield if Hall isn't ready.

Just look at the backs drafted in 21 and 22:

2022

• Hall - 2nd round - NYJ - on pace for OROY with 99 touches in 7 games
• Walker - 2nd round - Sea - starter with 258 touches
• Cook - 2nd - Buff - back up 110 touches
• White - 3rd - TB - co-starter with 179 touches
• Davis Price - 3rd - SF - bench on team with loaded RB room
• Robinson - 3rd Was - 214 touches (recovery from gunshot wound)
• Pierce - 4th - Hou - starter - 250 touches
• White - 4th LV - back up behind Jacobs
• Spiller - 4th LAC - back up behind Ekeler
• Strong - 4th NE - back up behind Stevenson (see below)
• Haskins - 4th Ten - back up behind Henry
• Allgier - 5th Alt - starter with 237 touches
• Conner - 5th Jax - back up behind Etienne
• Ford - 5th Clev - back up behind Chubb and Hunt
• Williams - 5th - LAR - back up - 94 touches
• Chandler - 5th Min - back up behind Cook and Mattison
• Pacheco =7th KC - eventual starter - 199 touches

2021

• Harris - 1st - Pitt - 381 touches
• Etienne - 1st Jax - injured
• Williams -2nd - Den - co starter - 246 touches
• Sermon - 3rd SF - bust -
• Carter - 3rd NYJ - 183 touches
• Stevenson - 3rd NE - co starter 147 touches
• Hubbard - 4th Car - 197 touches
• Gainwell - 5th Phi - 101 touches in crowded backfield
• Mitchell  - 5th - SF - 226 touches

The only rookie RBs who do not get 100-300 touches are those that are sitting behind established bellcow RBs and the occasional bust (Sermon).  Every other rookie RB on a team with an opportunity had a significant role.  

 

 

I agree that RBs come into the league more ready to start then many other Positions so when you draft a Breece Hall, he is generally ready Week 1 to be a stud, but many of the "backups" you listed are just bad players who would be a huge downgrade from a guy like Dalvin Cook. Actually, more like a MASSIVE downgrade.

Some have already been demoted this offseason. See the Patriots bringing in Zeke because Pierre strong is that bad and the Titans drafting Spears because Haskins wasn't any actually good or the Jags drafting Bigsby because Snoop wasn't any good. 

Just because a guy is listed as a backup on a depth chart, doesn't mean the team is happy to have that player start and that the ONLY thing holding them back from being a "good" NFL player was an elite starting RB in front of them. 

You are also not listing many of the late round RBs (Izzy is a 5th rounder) that were cut. 

Regardless, the Jets have "Veteran" RBs in guys like Carter and Knight, so I just think the team evaluated all 3 and thought they weren't good enough to carry the load while Breece Hall works his way back to 100pct. 

 

[rex-n-effect]

It's generally true for the guys who emerge at the top of the depth chart but not always true. Look at an RB like Bilal Powell who started off pretty bad and improved incrementally every year. On a team with a better roster he may not have made it but the circumstances kept him in there and he worked to improve over time.

Not in any way suggesting the team should draft project RBs or hold on to them for five years waiting for a serviceable RB to emerge.

[#27TheDominator]

I had kind of been banging this drum myself.  Still, there is some issue with it.  Yes, rookie RBs are generally ready to contribute.  Are they all ready to contribute from day !?  I'm not so sure.  We all squawk about how much Breece Hall did in an abbreviated season, but they did kind of work him in a bit.  He didn't get 10 carries until week 4, and he fumbled in the opener.  That will probably be the opposite of what we would have needed from Abanikanda with Hall needing time to get rolling.  Now they can all settle in and we can just manage egos.

[Embrace the Suck]

Yeah, why would a rookie RB need to develop? I mean they'll get better from experience of course, but the holes are the same. Run and don't get tackled is simple concept, in fact kids in peewee football do it all the time. 

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

3 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

 

I agree that RBs come into the league more ready to start then many other Positions so when you draft a Breece Hall, he is generally ready Week 1 to be a stud, but many of the "backups" you listed are just bad players who would be a huge downgrade from a guy like Dalvin Cook. Actually, more like a MASSIVE downgrade.

Some have already been demoted this offseason. See the Patriots bringing in Zeke because Pierre strong is that bad and the Titans drafting Spears because Haskins wasn't any actually good or the Jags drafting Bigsby because Snoop wasn't any good. 

Just because a guy is listed as a backup on a depth chart, doesn't mean the team is happy to have that player start and that the ONLY thing holding them back from being a "good" NFL player was an elite starting RB in front of them. 

You are also not listing many of the late round RBs (Izzy is a 5th rounder) that were cut. 

Regardless, the Jets have "Veteran" RBs in guys like Carter and Knight, so I just think the team evaluated all 3 and thought they weren't good enough to carry the load while Breece Hall works his way back to 100pct. 

 

I agree that some rookie running backs do not play because they aren't good enough. It's rarely because they are not "ready" or need time to learn.  It takes time for rookies at other positions to learn to play at an NFL level. Tight end is the best example. Rookie TEs rarely play and produce.