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Garrett Wilson Expectations


Bobby816

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What are your expectations for GW in 2023?

Taking out us all being Jets fans he was around the 15-20 best WRs in the league last year. BUT.... that was with Flacco, Wilson, White and Strevler throwing him the ball. He now has a top QB in the league throwing to him in Rodgers. Hard to not compare GW to what Adams did with Rodgers. They're actually very similar WRs with obviously Adams being the proven more elite one until Wilson belongs in that conversation.

Personally I think that GW can push his way into for sure the top 10 WR category and possibly even top 5. But my guess is in that 5-10 range.

 

Wilson's stats last year were: 147 targets, 83 rec, 1,103 yards and 4 tds with arguably the worst QB play in the league.

 

Top WRs in the league were at this last year....

 

Justin Jefferson, Tyreeke Hill, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs

CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Amari Cooper

 

This list is leaving out 2 big names in Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase. Kupp missed the whole year and Chase missed a big chunk of the season. When healthy they're among the elite WRs in the league, so hard to not think they'd have a better stat line that GW if healthy. GWs targets were comparable the most with AJ Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But obviously targets when poor QBs are targeting you, is different than arguably the most accurate QB ever targeting you that many times. So his receptions and even tds should go up from his rookie year.

I think something else to note, talking to a lot of GB fans this offseason. Is that what they thought has held them back from winning SBs in the years GB was really good and they had Adams and Rodgers. Was that Rodgers would rely too much on juts Adams. That Rodgers in playoffs or down in games would just look Adams' way. Instead of going through his progressions and throwing to who's open. Now I do think our supporting cast is better than what GB had in those years as well as our defense is elite. So GW maybe not being in that elite category yet, might actually help us. Where he doesn't have that trust with AR quite yet. So when it's crunch time he's the only one he can trust. Hopefully Rodgers an trust several guys in crunch time and go to whoever is open.

 

At the end of the regular season these are my Garrett Wilson projections

138 targets (less than last year)

95 receptions (more than last season)

1,297 yards (more than last year)

9 TDs (more than last year)

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37 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

What are your expectations for GW in 2023?

Taking out us all being Jets fans he was around the 15-20 best WRs in the league last year. BUT.... that was with Flacco, Wilson, White and Strevler throwing him the ball. He now has a top QB in the league throwing to him in Rodgers. Hard to not compare GW to what Adams did with Rodgers. They're actually very similar WRs with obviously Adams being the proven more elite one until Wilson belongs in that conversation.

Personally I think that GW can push his way into for sure the top 10 WR category and possibly even top 5. But my guess is in that 5-10 range.

 

Wilson's stats last year were: 147 targets, 83 rec, 1,103 yards and 4 tds with arguably the worst QB play in the league.

 

Top WRs in the league were at this last year....

 

Justin Jefferson, Tyreeke Hill, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs

CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Amari Cooper

 

This list is leaving out 2 big names in Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase. Kupp missed the whole year and Chase missed a big chunk of the season. When healthy they're among the elite WRs in the league, so hard to not think they'd have a better stat line that GW if healthy. GWs targets were comparable the most with AJ Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But obviously targets when poor QBs are targeting you, is different than arguably the most accurate QB ever targeting you that many times. So his receptions and even tds should go up from his rookie year.

I think something else to note, talking to a lot of GB fans this offseason. Is that what they thought has held them back from winning SBs in the years GB was really good and they had Adams and Rodgers. Was that Rodgers would rely too much on juts Adams. That Rodgers in playoffs or down in games would just look Adams' way. Instead of going through his progressions and throwing to who's open. Now I do think our supporting cast is better than what GB had in those years as well as our defense is elite. So GW maybe not being in that elite category yet, might actually help us. Where he doesn't have that trust with AR quite yet. So when it's crunch time he's the only one he can trust. Hopefully Rodgers an trust several guys in crunch time and go to whoever is open.

 

At the end of the regular season these are my Garrett Wilson projections

138 targets (less than last year)

95 receptions (more than last season)

1,297 yards (more than last year)

9 TDs (more than last year)

120 Catches, 135 Targets, 1750 Yards, 15 TDs... #1 WR in the league.

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I see a lot of opinions in the 1,300 yard range. That's his floor.

All else being the same, if Garrett had a mere average NFL reception percentage he would've had 10 additional catches for a season total of 1233 yards.

Of course, all else will not be equal. The quality and placement of his targets is about to get substantially better. 1,500 yards and double-digit TDs is very attainable.

 

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right now i'd say going into the season, i'd put him in the back half of the top 10ish in the league, but i can very easily see him finishing in the top 5.  as an avid FF player, he's someone i'd love to target, although it usually doesn't work out well when i get jets players

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Off the top of my head, I cant think of a WR that had as good of a rookie campaign w/ as bad of QB play as G. Wilson.  The only one that comes to mind immediately is Mike Evans w/ Josh McCown, on a 2-14 team playing catch up all game long.

Even Adams w/ Rodgers, guy didnt surpass 1,000 yards till his 4th year in the league.

Wouldnt shock me if G.Wilson was a top 5 WR this season in yards and receptions. 

I kind of just threw this out there, not really knowing off the top of my head what a top 5 season would look like, lol, so I just did a quick looksie to see what I'm actually predicting.  I excluded TD's because it's extremely hard to predict. So the top 5 WR's last season were:

Jefferson - 128, 1800

Hill - 119, 1700

Diggs - 108, 1300

Lamb - 107, 1300

St. Brown - 106, 1100

10. Metcalf - 90, 1k

Now seeing the data, I confirm that I wouldnt be shocked but I would be surprised, only because a couple of guys who were hurt or out last year I would anticipate being there this season, assuming they stay healthy:  Cooper Kupp , Jamar Chase and possibly, Calvin Ridley.  It also wouldnt shock me if Watson returned to form and Amari Cooper had a monster season.  So I listed top 10 because I do expect a top 10 season assuming last years top 10 are similar in regards to production.

 

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2 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

What are your expectations for GW in 2023?

Taking out us all being Jets fans he was around the 15-20 best WRs in the league last year. BUT.... that was with Flacco, Wilson, White and Strevler throwing him the ball. He now has a top QB in the league throwing to him in Rodgers. Hard to not compare GW to what Adams did with Rodgers. They're actually very similar WRs with obviously Adams being the proven more elite one until Wilson belongs in that conversation.

Personally I think that GW can push his way into for sure the top 10 WR category and possibly even top 5. But my guess is in that 5-10 range.

 

Wilson's stats last year were: 147 targets, 83 rec, 1,103 yards and 4 tds with arguably the worst QB play in the league.

 

Top WRs in the league were at this last year....

 

Justin Jefferson, Tyreeke Hill, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs

CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Amari Cooper

 

This list is leaving out 2 big names in Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase. Kupp missed the whole year and Chase missed a big chunk of the season. When healthy they're among the elite WRs in the league, so hard to not think they'd have a better stat line that GW if healthy. GWs targets were comparable the most with AJ Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But obviously targets when poor QBs are targeting you, is different than arguably the most accurate QB ever targeting you that many times. So his receptions and even tds should go up from his rookie year.

I think something else to note, talking to a lot of GB fans this offseason. Is that what they thought has held them back from winning SBs in the years GB was really good and they had Adams and Rodgers. Was that Rodgers would rely too much on juts Adams. That Rodgers in playoffs or down in games would just look Adams' way. Instead of going through his progressions and throwing to who's open. Now I do think our supporting cast is better than what GB had in those years as well as our defense is elite. So GW maybe not being in that elite category yet, might actually help us. Where he doesn't have that trust with AR quite yet. So when it's crunch time he's the only one he can trust. Hopefully Rodgers an trust several guys in crunch time and go to whoever is open.

 

At the end of the regular season these are my Garrett Wilson projections

138 targets (less than last year)

95 receptions (more than last season)

1,297 yards (more than last year)

9 TDs (more than last year)

There should be a standard calculation for to evaluate a WR based on who qb is. G. Wilson would have had 500 more yards on top of 1100 he received with the worst qb in NFL. Same as factoring in OL when judging a RB. 

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3 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

What are your expectations for GW in 2023?

A good, productive, healthy season where he competes with other top-tier NFL #1 WR's in terms of his production.  Top 10-15 or so production.

No sophomore slumps, hopefully.

What does that look like numerically? 

Approx. 135 targets, 91 receptions, 67% catch rate, 1,138 receiving yards, 12.5 YPR, 7 receiving TD's.

For reference, his numbers last year were:

147 targets, 83 receptions, 56.5% catch rate, 1,103 receiving yards, 13.3 YPR, 4 receiving TD's.

So very doable IMO.

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3 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

What are your expectations for GW in 2023?

Taking out us all being Jets fans he was around the 15-20 best WRs in the league last year. BUT.... that was with Flacco, Wilson, White and Strevler throwing him the ball. He now has a top QB in the league throwing to him in Rodgers. Hard to not compare GW to what Adams did with Rodgers. They're actually very similar WRs with obviously Adams being the proven more elite one until Wilson belongs in that conversation.

Personally I think that GW can push his way into for sure the top 10 WR category and possibly even top 5. But my guess is in that 5-10 range.

 

Wilson's stats last year were: 147 targets, 83 rec, 1,103 yards and 4 tds with arguably the worst QB play in the league.

 

Top WRs in the league were at this last year....

 

Justin Jefferson, Tyreeke Hill, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs

CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Amari Cooper

 

This list is leaving out 2 big names in Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase. Kupp missed the whole year and Chase missed a big chunk of the season. When healthy they're among the elite WRs in the league, so hard to not think they'd have a better stat line that GW if healthy. GWs targets were comparable the most with AJ Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown. But obviously targets when poor QBs are targeting you, is different than arguably the most accurate QB ever targeting you that many times. So his receptions and even tds should go up from his rookie year.

I think something else to note, talking to a lot of GB fans this offseason. Is that what they thought has held them back from winning SBs in the years GB was really good and they had Adams and Rodgers. Was that Rodgers would rely too much on juts Adams. That Rodgers in playoffs or down in games would just look Adams' way. Instead of going through his progressions and throwing to who's open. Now I do think our supporting cast is better than what GB had in those years as well as our defense is elite. So GW maybe not being in that elite category yet, might actually help us. Where he doesn't have that trust with AR quite yet. So when it's crunch time he's the only one he can trust. Hopefully Rodgers an trust several guys in crunch time and go to whoever is open.

 

At the end of the regular season these are my Garrett Wilson projections

138 targets (less than last year)

95 receptions (more than last season)

1,297 yards (more than last year)

9 TDs (more than last year)

I’m guessing Wilson will have a higher reception percentage than last season. He could still have the same targets. Hopefully he’ll get more receptions in space so he can better avoid hits.

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

Off the top of my head, I cant think of a WR that had as good of a rookie campaign w/ as bad of QB play as G. Wilson.  The only one that comes to mind immediately is Mike Evans w/ Josh McCown, on a 2-14 team playing catch up all game long.

Even Adams w/ Rodgers, guy didnt surpass 1,000 yards till his 4th year in the league.

Wouldnt shock me if G.Wilson was a top 5 WR this season in yards and receptions. 

the 4 years thing is interesting.  did not realize that.

the only thing holding me back on yards/receptions is that hopefully we are playing with the lead alot (good defense) and the 4th quarter is alot of runs.

but in practice rodgers has been targeted wilson alot.

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All good answers....here's what I think.

Throughout this TC, especially with joint practices where AR is facing the other team's #1s, we've seen our Oline struggle. This may sort itself out, but not quickly. Could take the 1st half of the season for our Oline to gel.

So what we've seen out of AR is a TON of quick passes, mostly inside 10 yards. Now, while Garrett can be a big part of that, so will the RBs out of the backfield, and so will the TEs. There will be a lot of mouths to feed in a short passing game made necessary by the state of our Oline, especially early on. 

I think GW will get more targets than last year, more receptions, but quite possibly NOT a ton more yards. I don't see GW's yards per reception being in the 18-20 yd range....probably more like 12 yards. So, 100 receptions, 1200 yards.

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After a blockbuster season, Rodgers suffers a season ending injury in the last week, so GW will become both QB and WR1 and have an even bigger postseason throwing passes to himself. 100% completion rate, 69 TDs, 0 INTs. The Vince Lombardi trophy is renamed the Garrett Wilson trophy to honor the winner of the Garrett Wilson bowl, formerly known as the Super Bowl.

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We could be looking at a 1,500 yard, 10+ TD season for Garrett Wilson.

I was 110% prepared to trade #10 away for Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown last draft... I'm glad JD is smarter than me. Wilson is special and Rodgers being behind center is going to launch this dude into a territory we are not used to as Jet fans

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

I kind of just threw this out there, not really knowing off the top of my head what a top 5 season would look like, lol, so I just did a quick looksie to see what I'm actually predicting.  I excluded TD's because it's extremely hard to predict. So the top 5 WR's last season were:

Jefferson - 128, 1800

Hill - 119, 1700

Diggs - 108, 1300

Lamb - 107, 1300

St. Brown - 106, 1100

10. Metcalf - 90, 1k

Now seeing the data, I confirm that I wouldnt be shocked but I would be surprised, only because a couple of guys who were hurt or out last year I would anticipate being there this season, assuming they stay healthy:  Cooper Kupp , Jamar Chase and possibly, Calvin Ridley.  It also wouldnt shock me if Watson returned to form and Amari Cooper had a monster season.  So I listed top 10 because I do expect a top 10 season assuming last years top 10 are similar in regards to production.

 

 

i tend to think yardage is more important than receptions.  not exactly sure where you are getting some of your numbers above.

this is last year's top 5 WRs by yardage

jefferson - 1809

hill - 1710

adams - 1516

aj brown - 1496

diggs - 1429

10. st brown - 1161 (note excludes kelce, but with kelce, #10 in receiving yards would be mclauren at 1191)

 

so a top 5 WR would be over 1400 yards and top 10 approaching 1200 yards.  as you state cupp and chase had injury shortened years, and of course injury is risk for all players

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24 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

All good answers....here's what I think.

Throughout this TC, especially with joint practices where AR is facing the other team's #1s, we've seen our Oline struggle. This may sort itself out, but not quickly. Could take the 1st half of the season for our Oline to gel.

I think maybe we're all getting ahead of ourselves on this O-line issue.

Not saying you're wrong per se, I'm saying we fans have not really seen the Jets actual regular season starting O-line in action together as yet.

As pessimistic as I usually am, I'm withholding any judgement on this unit till I see who is actually starting, and see it in live fire week 1.

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Assuming 17 games. I think Wilson will be the primary read on offense and will get a lot of targets.

Targets: 160 
Receptions: 104 
Yards: 1,352 
TD: 8

Not enough to be an all-pro but will get his first pro-bowl selection.

I expect the RBs to get a lot of targets. So I don't think any other WR cracks 1,000 yards.

Rodgers: 4,253 yards passing, 35 TDs and 8 INTs

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56 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

i tend to think yardage is more important than receptions.  not exactly sure where you are getting some of your numbers above.

this is last year's top 5 WRs by yardage

jefferson - 1809

hill - 1710

adams - 1516

aj brown - 1496

diggs - 1429

10. st brown - 1161 (note excludes kelce, but with kelce, #10 in receiving yards would be mclauren at 1191)

 

so a top 5 WR would be over 1400 yards and top 10 approaching 1200 yards.  as you state cupp and chase had injury shortened years, and of course injury is risk for all players

In my exercise I did on my own w/ out any influence or set of criteria to guide me or input from anyone else, I just used the top 10 WR's in receptions and rounded yards an example to make it easy on myself because I wasnt looking to accomplish anything other then a very quick look a little further at a throwaway statement I made based on the simplest list I found available on the first search I did while I was having a conversation w/ myself to prove nothing other than saying yeah, maybe but thank you.

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40 minutes ago, JiF said:

In my exercise I did on my own w/ out any influence or set of criteria to guide me or input from anyone else, I just used the top 10 WR's in receptions and rounded yards an example to make it easy on myself because I wasnt looking to accomplish anything other then a very quick look a little further at a throwaway statement I made based on the simplest list I found available on the first search I did while I was having a conversation w/ myself to prove nothing other than saying yeah, maybe but thank you.

 

i understood the rounding off.  was confused on diggs (you said 1300 but he had 1429).  probably a typo.  no worries

just think yardage is better indicator of "best WRs", so was trying to set the bar on what type of yardage GW would need to meet top 5 and top 10 based on last year

anywho...hope it was a good convo with yourself... 😎

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