Interesting article on Jets Offense from a bettors perspective

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

13. New York Jets

I have flip-flopped roughly 4,000 times on whether I think the Jets offense will be good this year. I keep coming back to the 2022 Packers. During a season in which Aaron Rodgers fought through an injury and did not play well, they still finished 11th in DVOA. The last time the Jets offense finished 11th or better in DVOA? 2004!

My point is that Rodgers doesn’t need to be an MVP candidate for the Jets to be decent. He simply needs to quarterback an above-average offense, and that will likely be good enough to get this team to the playoffs. He has enough to work with at wide receiver with Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman, although this group got thinner with Corey Davis’s surprise retirement. The big question is the offensive line, and specifically offensive tackle. The Jets have taken a bunch of dart throws there with players like Duane Brown, who will turn 38 before the start of the regular season; Max Mitchell; Billy Turner; and Mekhi Becton. Whether they can find two guys who will be competent and durable will go a long way in determining the outcome of their season.

One thing working in the Jets’ favor: They’re unlikely to get as unlucky with injuries as they were last year. The Jets offense had the fourth-worst injury luck in the NFL, and it was especially bad on the offensive line. Only three teams in Football Outsiders’ database, which goes back to 2001, had more injuries on the offensive line than the 2022 Jets did. Performance aside, just getting their starters on the field more has to lead to improvement.

Rodgers is clearly in the final stage of his career, but I don’t think he’s completely cooked, and he has pieces around him to help him quarterback the Jets into the top half of the NFL.

Full article

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/8/28/23848353/projecting-every-nfl-offense-overall-ranking-2023-season

 

[jbt]

I agree it all hinges on the tackles staying healthy.  if they both play 14-17 games then they will be an above average offense and plenty good enough with this defense to make the playoffs and make a run

[docdhc]

2 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

13. New York Jets

I have flip-flopped roughly 4,000 times on whether I think the Jets offense will be good this year. I keep coming back to the 2022 Packers. During a season in which Aaron Rodgers fought through an injury and did not play well, they still finished 11th in DVOA. The last time the Jets offense finished 11th or better in DVOA? 2004!

My point is that Rodgers doesn’t need to be an MVP candidate for the Jets to be decent. He simply needs to quarterback an above-average offense, and that will likely be good enough to get this team to the playoffs. He has enough to work with at wide receiver with Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman, although this group got thinner with Corey Davis’s surprise retirement. The big question is the offensive line, and specifically offensive tackle. The Jets have taken a bunch of dart throws there with players like Duane Brown, who will turn 38 before the start of the regular season; Max Mitchell; Billy Turner; and Mekhi Becton. Whether they can find two guys who will be competent and durable will go a long way in determining the outcome of their season.

One thing working in the Jets’ favor: They’re unlikely to get as unlucky with injuries as they were last year. The Jets offense had the fourth-worst injury luck in the NFL, and it was especially bad on the offensive line. Only three teams in Football Outsiders’ database, which goes back to 2001, had more injuries on the offensive line than the 2022 Jets did. Performance aside, just getting their starters on the field more has to lead to improvement.

Rodgers is clearly in the final stage of his career, but I don’t think he’s completely cooked, and he has pieces around him to help him quarterback the Jets into the top half of the NFL.

Full article

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/8/28/23848353/projecting-every-nfl-offense-overall-ranking-2023-season

 

Rodgers with a bad thumb was 11th last year and he predicts the Jets at 13 this year?  If he’s healthy they’re  top 10 and top 5 if the tackles stay healthy and Cook/Hall tandem is any good. 

[extmenace]

3 minutes ago, docdhc said:

Rodgers with a bad thumb was 11th last year and he predicts the Jets at 13 this year?  If he’s healthy they’re  top 10 and top 5 if the tackles stay healthy and Cook/Hall tandem is any good. 

I mean, If you look at the list and look at the teams listed above the jets, it’s not that far fetched that those teams are as good or better on offense, at least on paper. In addition to that, this team is going to want to win controlling the ball, finishing long drives, and keeping the clock running on offense and playing good defense. That style of offense, if executed properly, limits offensive possesions.

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

2 minutes ago, extmenace said:

I mean, If you look at the list and look at the teams listed above the jets, it’s not that far fetched that those teams are as good or better on offense, at least on paper. In addition to that, this team is going to want to win controlling the ball, finishing long drives, and keeping the clock running on offense and playing good defense. That style of offense, if executed properly, limits offensive possesions.

I think that they are expecting more 2022 Rodgers and they think the Oline is suspect... 

Personally I think this is closer to a top 5 Offense because they have the ability to put teams on their heels and then ram it down their throats with running and great defense... 

This will create passing situations for the opposing team playing into the strength of the defense... 

Also everyone dinging the Jets oline is only looking at the pass blocking or the overall grade but if you look at run grade it's a top tier unit... So if they can run and run and just when you can't stop the run anymore Aaron puts one over the top... It's better then people think

[Larz]

It’s a shane that they are only getting together as a unit a week before the season. I think we’ll see the offense improve as the season goes on into a really fun offense to watch 

[varjet]

As the other thread noted, if anything happens to Garrett Wilson, this is a different offense.  

I don’t know how much Corey Davis was changing that.  

[chirorob]

19 minutes ago, extmenace said:

I mean, If you look at the list and look at the teams listed above the jets, it’s not that far fetched that those teams are as good or better on offense, at least on paper. In addition to that, this team is going to want to win controlling the ball, finishing long drives, and keeping the clock running on offense and playing good defense. That style of offense, if executed properly, limits offensive possesions.

When you read that, I agree, Jets could be anywhere from 10th to 15th.  Like every team, it depends on health.

Eagles and 49ers are freaking loaded.

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, varjet said:

As the other thread noted, if anything happens to Garrett Wilson, this is a different offense.  

I don’t know how much Corey Davis was changing that.  

If you're comparing them to the 2022 Packers, if something happens to Garrett Wilson (God forbid) are they really any worse?  I get Watson is a nice option, but we have two top tier backs and plenty of potential.  Wilson probably, hopefully, elevates them much closer to the 2020=2021 Packers

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

It's gonna also help that they face bills without von Miller early and KC without Jones, most likely

[extmenace]

18 minutes ago, chirorob said:

When you read that, I agree, Jets could be anywhere from 10th to 15th.  Like every team, it depends on health.

Eagles and 49ers are freaking loaded.

Yea, you have the clear cut elite offenses, then you have the teams that this team is bunched in with. The could be good, could be great, could be average grouping. People also want to ignore that this offense was one of the worst units in football last year. Yea, we have cook, Rodgers, and a healthy breece, and a new OC but last years production cannot be changed.  People who do ranking will account for last year. Going from the bottom to number 13 is a huge jump.

[UntouchableCrew]

I think that's a fair write-up.

Really, if our offense is in that 10-15 range I think we're going to the playoffs.

If we're in the top 10 I think we're legit contenders.

[Smashmouth]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

It’s a shane that they are only getting together as a unit a week before the season. I think we’ll see the offense improve as the season goes on into a really fun offense to watch 

 exactly

 

[FidelioJet]

Let's keep in mind the Packers had a top 5 OL last year too.  Even if the Jets OL stay healthy and play to form - it's likely to still a pretty big drop.  Then you have...

WR...

It's Watson year 1 vs. Wilson year 2 - certainly in the Jets favor (otherwise pretty similar at WR)

RB ...

Aaron Jones (2022 with career-high 1,125 yards at 5.3 yards per rush, which was the sixth-best rate in football) vs. Hall/Cook - Likely to be in the Jets favor but not as big as many believe.

So the question is does the lift from Wilson and Hall/Cook outweigh the drop in OL play to increase Rodgers from the 11th best QB in the NFL?  

Jets will need him to be quite a bit better than that if they want to make a legitimate run.  

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings

 

 

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I think that's a fair write-up.

Really, if our offense is in that 10-15 range I think we're going to the playoffs.

If we're in the top 10 I think we're legit contenders.

This is going to have to be an offense playing at top 5 level by the playoffs if they want to make a legitimate run.

 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Only thing holding the offense back is their experience together. The more they get comfortable, the better it'll be and less mistakes. Talent is there. Remaining healthy is a question mark for every team.

If people are just thinking Rodgers is losing a step because of how last year went, then well, I think a lot of people are going to be wrong. 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

I think that they are expecting more 2022 Rodgers and they think the Oline is suspect... 

Personally I think this is closer to a top 5 Offense because they have the ability to put teams on their heels and then ram it down their throats with running and great defense... 

This will create passing situations for the opposing team playing into the strength of the defense... 

Also everyone dinging the Jets oline is only looking at the pass blocking or the overall grade but if you look at run grade it's a top tier unit... So if they can run and run and just when you can't stop the run anymore Aaron puts one over the top... It's better then people think

What?!?!   We have a ton of question marks (OL, depth at WR, Breece recovering from injury) and we'd need everything to go our way for that to happen.   A-A-Ron definitely has to potential to drag the offense on his back (even at his age) but top 5 is asking a lot.

[UntouchableCrew]

12 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This is going to have to be an offense playing at top 5 level by the playoffs if they want to make a legitimate run.

 

I don’t think that’s true if the defense is as good as we think/hope.

[FidelioJet]

Just now, UntouchableCrew said:

I don’t think that’s true if the defense is as good as we think/hope.

Yes and no....

Regular season for sure - which is why I think top 10 or even, as you mentioned, top 15 offense gets you in the playoffs.  The D should be that good.

Come playoff time - to beat teams like KC and Cincy - you're going to need to put up 30+ to win.  In today's NFL those big playoffs games are typically shoot outs, regardless of how good the defense is.

The Jets D will keep the Jets in the playoff hunt while the O gels.  To win a championship (or make a legit run at one) the O will have to come together and be playing at an elite level when it counts.  

[UntouchableCrew]

Just now, FidelioJet said:

Yes and no....

Regular season for sure - which is why I think top 10 or even, as you mentioned, top 15 offense gets you in the playoffs.  The D should be that good.

Come playoff time - to beat teams like KC and Cincy - you're going to need to put up 30+ to win.  In today's NFL those big playoffs games are typically shoot outs, regardless of how good the defense is.

The Jets D will keep the Jets in the playoff hunt while the O gels.  To win a championship (or make a legit run at one) the O will have to come together and be playing at an elite level when it counts.  

The 2021 Rams were 9th in total offense, the 2020 Bucs were 7th, Chiefs were actually 6th in 2019.

I'm just saying that having a top ten offense in terms of overall performance is kind of the zone you need to be in to have a Super Bowl type run -- obviously to win it you're going to need to execute/play well in the big moments against the best teams.

[TuscanyTile2]

2 hours ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

I think that they are expecting more 2022 Rodgers and they think the Oline is suspect... 

Personally I think this is closer to a top 5 Offense because they have the ability to put teams on their heels and then ram it down their throats with running and great defense... 

This will create passing situations for the opposing team playing into the strength of the defense... 

Also everyone dinging the Jets oline is only looking at the pass blocking or the overall grade but if you look at run grade it's a top tier unit... So if they can run and run and just when you can't stop the run anymore Aaron puts one over the top... It's better then people think

You think we're going to be a top 5 offense yet you call yourself "Reasonable Jets Fan"?

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

You think we're going to be a top 5 offense yet you call yourself "Reasonable Jets Fan"?

Yes I do think it's reasonable based on Rodgers past and how good the surrounding team is... And how good the Jets schedule is.... You don't but it's all up for debate... Versus in the past where it would be laughable to put them up that high... 

This fan base has never had a QB of this calibur... They are underestimating the impact

[billo83]

29 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Let's keep in mind the Packers had a top 5 OL last year too.  Even if the Jets OL stay healthy and play to form - it's likely to still a pretty big drop.  Then you have...

WR...

It's Watson year 1 vs. Wilson year 2 - certainly in the Jets favor (otherwise pretty similar at WR)

RB ...

Aaron Jones (2022 with career-high 1,125 yards at 5.3 yards per rush, which was the sixth-best rate in football) vs. Hall/Cook - Likely to be in the Jets favor but not as big as many believe.

So the question is does the lift from Wilson and Hall/Cook outweigh the drop in OL play to increase Rodgers from the 11th best QB in the NFL?  

Jets will need him to be quite a bit better than that if they want to make a legitimate run.  

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2022-nfl-offensive-line-rankings

 

 

Don't forget that AR was playing with an injured thumb last year and that AR will make the OL better by his great ability in reading defenses and his quick release. Also don't discount that AR is motivated and rejuvenated after getting out of GB. 

[FidelioJet]

9 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

The 2021 Rams were 9th in total offense, the 2020 Bucs were 7th, Chiefs were actually 6th in 2019.

I'm just saying that having a top ten offense in terms of overall performance is kind of the zone you need to be in to have a Super Bowl type run -- obviously to win it you're going to need to execute/play well in the big moments against the best teams.

Both the Rams and Bucs offense's really clicked late - both were playing at elite levels in the playoffs.  Like the Jets, they had QB's new to the team - and took time.  (2019 was only Mahomes 2nd year starting)

That is the point I was making - Yes, the overall season long ranking can get you in the playoffs with good defense and a mediocre offense....but if you're counting on the defense to carry you to a championship in the playoffs - you should take a time machine back a decade.

My point / question is - Do the Rodgers led Jets have enough firepower to compete offensively with the big boys come playoff time?  Can they get to there by the playoffs..

Again, season long rankings aren't what I'm talking about - I'm talking about the level they're playing when it counts.

[DoubleDown]

I have the Jets firmly in the top 5-15 offenses this year.  Above average, but not quite elite.  There will be some growing pains early in the season as the new system is installed, Rodgers forms chemistry with his receivers, and the OL gels (they haven't had much time together as a unit this summer).  They will start to look like a well oiled machine just in time for the playoff/Superbowl run.

[TuscanyTile2]

8 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

Yes I do think it's reasonable based on Rodgers past and how good the surrounding team is... And how good the Jets schedule is.... You don't but it's all up for debate... Versus in the past where it would be laughable to put them up that high... 

This fan base has never had a QB of this calibur... They are underestimating the impact

I'm not underestimating the impact of a great QB (which I still think AR is).  I just think you're underestimating how difficult it is to be a top 5 offense.  I think #10 is a lot more reasonable.  Top 5 (at least with the squad we currently have) would require a LOT to go right. 

[slimjasi]

13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Come playoff time - to beat teams like KC and Cincy - you're going to need to put up 30+ to win.  In today's NFL those big playoffs games are typically shoot outs, regardless of how good the defense is.

Well, last year, the bengals and chiefs played a combined 6 playoff games (one of them was against each other). In those games, the chiefs scored 30 or more points ONCE and the Bengals never reached 30 points in a single game. Lol

FYI - Historically, the exact opposite of what you are arguing is true - defenses tend to have an advantage in playoff/championship games 

[Hex]

This will probably be the best offense the Jets have had in a long time. However, the Jets offense has been awful generally for a long time too, so we're kind of in a vacuum chamber when it comes to comparing to other teams.

[FidelioJet]

18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Well, last year, the bengals and chiefs played a combined 6 playoff games (one of them was against each other). In those games, the chiefs scored 30 or more points ONCE and the Bengals never reached 30 points in a single game. Lol

FYI - Historically, the exact opposite of what you are arguing is true - defenses tend to have an advantage in playoff/championship games 

Did the Bengals go to the Super Bowl last year? I don't think they did..  

Look, many Jet fans will seemingly be happy with a playoff appearance and I can understand that.  It's been a long time.  But no matter how much you will it, you're going to need to be playing offense at an elite level if you want to win a Super Bowl.  

5 of the last 7 Super Bowls the winner scored over 30 points.  LOL!!!

[BornJetsFan1983]

3 hours ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

13. New York Jets

I have flip-flopped roughly 4,000 times on whether I think the Jets offense will be good this year. I keep coming back to the 2022 Packers. During a season in which Aaron Rodgers fought through an injury and did not play well, they still finished 11th in DVOA. The last time the Jets offense finished 11th or better in DVOA? 2004!

My point is that Rodgers doesn’t need to be an MVP candidate for the Jets to be decent. He simply needs to quarterback an above-average offense, and that will likely be good enough to get this team to the playoffs. He has enough to work with at wide receiver with Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman, although this group got thinner with Corey Davis’s surprise retirement. The big question is the offensive line, and specifically offensive tackle. The Jets have taken a bunch of dart throws there with players like Duane Brown, who will turn 38 before the start of the regular season; Max Mitchell; Billy Turner; and Mekhi Becton. Whether they can find two guys who will be competent and durable will go a long way in determining the outcome of their season.

One thing working in the Jets’ favor: They’re unlikely to get as unlucky with injuries as they were last year. The Jets offense had the fourth-worst injury luck in the NFL, and it was especially bad on the offensive line. Only three teams in Football Outsiders’ database, which goes back to 2001, had more injuries on the offensive line than the 2022 Jets did. Performance aside, just getting their starters on the field more has to lead to improvement.

Rodgers is clearly in the final stage of his career, but I don’t think he’s completely cooked, and he has pieces around him to help him quarterback the Jets into the top half of the NFL.

Full article

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/8/28/23848353/projecting-every-nfl-offense-overall-ranking-2023-season

 

Bro from a better perspective lots of good jets bets all year. Rodgers is going to be back to MVP or close to it level. Not just good. 

It obvious from what we already seen

People just forget about the fact the off was crap in GB last year because of broken hand, no chem, etc. They want to act like he just can't play anymore. It's ridiculous

Look you heard it here first AROD 35+ TDs, we win 13 games...we have top 5 offense on league with top 5 def if not number one

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Did the Bengals go to the Super Bowl last year? I don't think they did.

Chiefs put up 30 in the Championship game and Super Bowl to win a championship.  

Look, many Jet fans will seemingly be happy with a playoff appearance and I can understand that.  It's been a long time.  But no matter how much you will it, you're going to need to be playing offense at an elite level if you want to win a Super Bowl.  

5 of the last 7 Super Bowls the winner scored over 30 points.  LOL!!!

I think this is kind of bullsh*t.  

The whole "have to be playing at an elite level to win the super bowl" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  You win and they will say you played at an elite level.  Was Joe Flacco elite?  Nick Foles?  The rules helping the offense are a joke.  The 2022 Jets were 29th in total D.  They won 7 games.  They still put up over 30 three times, one of those times 40, and 27 one other time. 

When you are in the super bowl there is no reason to punt.  There is no reason to save guys for next week.  Every game is like our attempted comeback over the Browns.  Easier to score 30 in that situation.  Either if you are behind and trying to come back, or if you are in front and ending up with sacks, picks and short fields from teams leaving every opportunity out there.  Playoff games will always be higher scoring, even when the defenses are good.

[slimjasi]

13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Did the Bengals go to the Super Bowl last year? I don't think they did..  

Not sure what this has to do with my post at all. 
 

anyway, you wrote that a team will have to score 30 points to beat the chiefs or bengals in a playoff game. I was just pointing out the inconvenient fact that you could have beaten either team in all but one of their 6 combined playoff games last year without scoring 30 points. So . . . 
 

You can still win with a strong defense. The 49ers haven’t been to three out of the last four NFC title games without their defense 

[Reasonable Jets Fan]

24 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm not underestimating the impact of a great QB (which I still think AR is).  I just think you're underestimating how difficult it is to be a top 5 offense.  I think #10 is a lot more reasonable.  Top 5 (at least with the squad we currently have) would require a LOT to go right. 

Probably right... Top 5 might be overreach and more of the ceiling, I just feel like I am combating the doom and gloomers all the time that come in every thread... 

Aaron Rodgers is going to make this OL better then they are... And their talent will shine because they don't need to hold pass rushers for 4-5 seconds like the last few years... And how to direct the OL to the right coverage because he has a good idea on who is coming

[FidelioJet]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

I think this is kind of bullsh*t.  

The whole "have to be playing at an elite level to win the super bowl" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  You win and they will say you played at an elite level.  Was Joe Flacco elite?  Nick Foles?  The rules helping the offense are a joke.  The 2022 Jets were 29th in total D.  They won 7 games.  They still put up over 30 three times, one of those times 40, and 27 one other time. 

When you are in the super bowl there is no reason to punt.  There is no reason to save guys for next week.  Every game is like our attempted comeback over the Browns.  Easier to score 30 in that situation.  Either if you are behind and trying to come back, or if you are in front and ending up with sacks, picks and short fields from teams leaving every opportunity out there.  Playoff games will always be higher scoring, even when the defenses are good.

Essentially I think we're at an impasse. 

It seems you believe, in today's NFL, it's reasonable to expect you can win a Super Bowl with an average offense and strong defense.

I do not agree.  I certainly believe a strong defense can carry you through a regular season with a competent offense -  but come playoff time if you want to make a legitimate Super Bowl run your offense is going to have to be playing at an elite level.  

I believe my position is justified by watching the NFL the past decade.  But you make a case for the opposite.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[FidelioJet]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The 49ers haven’t been to three out of the last four NFC title games without their defense 

How many championships have the 49ers won in the last four seasons?

If Championship game is your goal you might have a shot to pull out a win or two with D (odds still against but certainly possible)

I would like to see the Jets win a Super Bowl or at least get there.