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In the end only 3 things determine our record


JohnnyLV

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

We have the talent and roster to win.

We have triplets in Rodgers Garrett and Breece 

We have probably the best secondary in football and maybe best DL in football as well.

But those strengths are NOT the 3 things that matter

The entire season comes down to 3 things:

1. Injuries Obvious. If our OL gets injured, Rodgers gets injured. Or Wilson or Sauce it will make our success much more difficult.

2. Not who we play but when we play them. How injured is the opponent? Is their QB injured? What momentum good or bad do they have? What is the rest and travel delta? Like last year the timing of the Green Bay game with them coming off an international game, Rodgers thumb were all important elements of us being able to win.

3. A handful of plays. Maybe 5 or 6 will be the difference between 12 and 5 or 7 and 10. Do we make the 50 yarder to win the game. Do we have a key penalty at the wrong time. No JFM roughing and we beat New England. Does the receiver make the end of game catch or not? (Looking at you Berrios) change like 4 plays and we make the playoffs last year.

Our table is set, and if we can step up get some luck and have a few things go our way we can be great. But we could also be 5 and 12 if things break badly

 

 

I do think the time you plays teams is important and I am glad the season is front loaded. Good points all around, spot on. Great post

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43 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

We have the talent and roster to win.

We have triplets in Rodgers Garrett and Breece 

We have probably the best secondary in football and maybe best DL in football as well.

But those strengths are NOT the 3 things that matter

The entire season comes down to 3 things:

1. Injuries Obvious. If our OL gets injured, Rodgers gets injured. Or Wilson or Sauce it will make our success much more difficult.

2. Not who we play but when we play them. How injured is the opponent? Is their QB injured? What momentum good or bad do they have? What is the rest and travel delta? Like last year the timing of the Green Bay game with them coming off an international game, Rodgers thumb were all important elements of us being able to win.

3. A handful of plays. Maybe 5 or 6 will be the difference between 12 and 5 or 7 and 10. Do we make the 50 yarder to win the game. Do we have a key penalty at the wrong time. No JFM roughing and we beat New England. Does the receiver make the end of game catch or not? (Looking at you Berrios) change like 4 plays and we make the playoffs last year.

Our table is set, and if we can step up get some luck and have a few things go our way we can be great. But we could also be 5 and 12 if things break badly

 

 

What position do you play? 

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OL play and defensive turnovers are the two most important, performance-based determiners of our record imo.

If there are games our OL can impose their will on the opponent's DL for Breece/Cook, look out.  It would feel real good to win games with Rodgers throwing < 30 times with a few clutch TDs.  Get ahead early and run the clock/sack the QB.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyLV said:

We have the talent and roster to win.

We have triplets in Rodgers Garrett and Breece 

We have probably the best secondary in football and maybe best DL in football as well.

But those strengths are NOT the 3 things that matter

The entire season comes down to 3 things:

1. Injuries Obvious. If our OL gets injured, Rodgers gets injured. Or Wilson or Sauce it will make our success much more difficult.

2. Not who we play but when we play them. How injured is the opponent? Is their QB injured? What momentum good or bad do they have? What is the rest and travel delta? Like last year the timing of the Green Bay game with them coming off an international game, Rodgers thumb were all important elements of us being able to win.

3. A handful of plays. Maybe 5 or 6 will be the difference between 12 and 5 or 7 and 10. Do we make the 50 yarder to win the game. Do we have a key penalty at the wrong time. No JFM roughing and we beat New England. Does the receiver make the end of game catch or not? (Looking at you Berrios) change like 4 plays and we make the playoffs last year.

Our table is set, and if we can step up get some luck and have a few things go our way we can be great. But we could also be 5 and 12 if things break badly

 

 

I dont see 5-12 from this team unless both Rodgers and Wilson are injured and out for the year.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

We have the talent and roster to win.

We have triplets in Rodgers Garrett and Breece 

We have probably the best secondary in football and maybe best DL in football as well.

But those strengths are NOT the 3 things that matter

The entire season comes down to 3 things:

1. Injuries Obvious. If our OL gets injured, Rodgers gets injured. Or Wilson or Sauce it will make our success much more difficult.

2. Not who we play but when we play them. How injured is the opponent? Is their QB injured? What momentum good or bad do they have? What is the rest and travel delta? Like last year the timing of the Green Bay game with them coming off an international game, Rodgers thumb were all important elements of us being able to win.

3. A handful of plays. Maybe 5 or 6 will be the difference between 12 and 5 or 7 and 10. Do we make the 50 yarder to win the game. Do we have a key penalty at the wrong time. No JFM roughing and we beat New England. Does the receiver make the end of game catch or not? (Looking at you Berrios) change like 4 plays and we make the playoffs last year.

Our table is set, and if we can step up get some luck and have a few things go our way we can be great. But we could also be 5 and 12 if things break badly

kRO7pUR.gif

..just  win   😎

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My opinion is that the two biggest things to watch are 

fast starts. This team with the pass rush and running backs can dominate with a lead. Zach is a notoriously slow starter. I think Aaron will be better. 
 

Extra time off. The jets have a huge advantage on paper , but there is something about how Saleh has handled the extra time up to know that has been poopy. Last year they got blown out after the bye or with extra rest. Hopefully Aaron and Hack can help him fix this. 

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Obviously injuries to OL, Rodgers, Wilson, or Sauce would hurt a lot. I think Q is unique enough that it’d be a similar impact. Reed isn't at Sauce’s level but the secondary is so strong in part because those guys are a tremendous 1-2 punch, so I think him going down would be a really big deal. They’d add up on the DL. It’s hard to separate Hall’s impact from AVT’s but I think if Hall is healthy and then gets hurt it’d be a big deal.

Believe this was the most injured offenses in the league last year and one of the healthiest defenses.

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The things that worry me most are:

  • Mekhi Becton's health/relationship with mgmt
  • Will Breece Hall return to form this year?
  • Can a good defense become a great defense?

Mekhi's been talked about.

Usually, it takes a year with ACL injuries to truly return to pre-injury form. Some guys have done it in one, though. Breece is young enough and an absolute freak athletically - he could potentially be one of those "one-year return" guys. If he is, we're going to be the worst draw for any team in the playoffs

The D played so damn well last year, and it's hard to ask for improvement really, hell even "just as good as last year" would be an accomplishment. But if they did take a step, that could mitigate so much of the downside risk/bust scenario from the above two. To me, this will be the biggest requirement/predictor for a deep playoff run in '23.

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11 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles are all tough games in the first half of the season...and all home games for the Jets. Couldn't ask for more than that.

Cowboys (away) in wk 2 is probably our toughest game pre bi week.

Cowboys? Bi week? Hold up, it's been a few since my last Brokeback Mountain joke.

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Jets fans have waited decades for this. Finally they can taste it. Success. A HOF quarterback, a defense that's tougher than an overcooked steak, a coach who runs steps with a power and finesse that could make Rocky Balboa blub. 

 

But what you don't realize is there's one man who is ready and waiting to end your hopes and send you crying into the offseason...

 

 

 

 

 

giphy.gif

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The things that worry me most are:

  • Mekhi Becton's health/relationship with mgmt
  • Will Breece Hall return to form this year?
  • Can a good defense become a great defense?

Mekhi's been talked about.

Usually, it takes a year with ACL injuries to truly return to pre-injury form. Some guys have done it in one, though. Breece is young enough and an absolute freak athletically - he could potentially be one of those "one-year return" guys. If he is, we're going to be the worst draw for any team in the playoffs

The D played so damn well last year, and it's hard to ask for improvement really, hell even "just as good as last year" would be an accomplishment. But if they did take a step, that could mitigate so much of the downside risk/bust scenario from the above two. To me, this will be the biggest requirement/predictor for a deep playoff run in '23.

I think Mekhi is going to stay healthy and have a great season.

I'm not worried about Hall. He is a rare athlete, and I look for him to have a similar season to Adrien Peterson.

I don't think it's so hard to expect improvement from the D.  Most of the players return and they have another year experience in the scheme, so they will know the scheme and each other well enough to be able to add new wrinkles and make adjustments.  This will be the third year in the scheme, and that should lead to more confidence and comfort,

With better punting, opponents will be pinned deeper, which could have them being more conservative, and that could help our D if we aren't too aggressive, play the run better, and are able to limit, if not shut down, passes to TEs and RBs over the middle. Better field position should help our offense score more points, making things easier on our D.  With more sustained drives and points from the offense, opponents will play into the hands and strength of the D.  With a fresher, more rested D, and tighter play, they should create more 3 and outs and TOs.  In preseason, I saw more Jets defenders attempting to punch the ball out, and I think we could see more FFs this year, as well as more picks.

Rodgers should help the D immensely.  Not only has he already helped the DBs, but the offense should be able to sustain a lot more drives, score a lot more points, thus keeping the D more rested, and with leads in the 4th Qtr., enabling the Edge rushers to be able to tee off on opposing QBs. 

In terms of units, I think the play of the D begins and ends with the DL.  Q is coming off a breakout season, and should be even better. The question with the DL will be whether Woods and Jefferson can be an improvement over Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd.  Both had good seasons last year.  I think both Woods and Jefferson can be better, but whether they will could depend on how Ulbrich/Saleh decide to rotate them.  If they play Woods on early downs and Jefferson, JFM and/or Clemons on passing downs, then they could definitely be better as I think Woods is better vs the run than either Shepherd or Rankins and Jefferson is better rushing the passer than either.  Undoubtedly, the Jets will get caught sometimes with the wrong one the field, but overall, I think they can be better.  Also, JFM and Clemons can make a difference inside.  Here is where JJ, McDonald, and Huff, in particular can make a huge difference.  I look for them to create more TOs, both in terms of strip sacks and forced picks, and a lot more incompletions leading to opponents' 3 and outs.  JJ is no longer a rookie, and looks greatly improved from last season.  I think he will have a breakout year.  McDonald is going to terrorize opposing QBs, and Huff is playing for a big contract either from the Jets or from another team in FA.  Barring injuries, our DEs should feast this year and terrorize opposing QBs due to being fresher and playing with more leads.

With regards to the DBs, this is where I perhaps will see the greatest improvement.  Sauce is no longer a rookie, and he worked very hard this offseason to improve, and the CS is challenging him to get more picks this season. I look to see Sauce get at least 4-5 picks.  Sauce and Reed have a year's experience together.  Adams will be a huge improvement at FS and I expect him to add some picks.  Whitehead had a bad year last year, and he has looked better in TC and preseason and has credited both Chuck Clark and Adams' attitudes and work ethics for making him better. I'd have felt better if we had Chuck Clark than Adrian Amos, but Amos will help vs the run and should be better depth than last year.  Davis has even looked better, but hopefully he rarely sees the field.  I would have felt a lot better about our secondary if Guidry and/or Moreland were on the team rather than Hall, although I expect him to be gone once Echols comes back, and if not, then when Warren and JBC come back.

With regards to the LBs, Quincy Williams looks to be improved.  Sherwood should be improved. The big question mark with Sherwood is can he come close to the play of Kwon Alexander, and can the LBs stop TEs and RBs over the middle?  I think Surratt and Barnes improve the depth at LB, and Surratt could improve coverage over the middle, although Barnes is still pretty raw. We'll see if Mosely can come close to playing as well this season as he did last season. If so, the D should definitely be better than last year.

I think our pass rush and pass defense should be better overall. Playing with a lead more often should limit opponents' ability to run the ball a lot, and that should help vs the run. The main question is if we can limit or stop teams from being able to throw at will to TEs and RBs over the middle.  If we can, then the sky is the limit.

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5 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The things that worry me most are:

  • Mekhi Becton's health/relationship with mgmt
  • Will Breece Hall return to form this year?
  • Can a good defense become a great defense?

Mekhi's been talked about.

Usually, it takes a year with ACL injuries to truly return to pre-injury form. Some guys have done it in one, though. Breece is young enough and an absolute freak athletically - he could potentially be one of those "one-year return" guys. If he is, we're going to be the worst draw for any team in the playoffs

The D played so damn well last year, and it's hard to ask for improvement really, hell even "just as good as last year" would be an accomplishment. But if they did take a step, that could mitigate so much of the downside risk/bust scenario from the above two. To me, this will be the biggest requirement/predictor for a deep playoff run in '23.

The best way to make a good defense a great defense is by adding a great offense.

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20 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

We have the talent and roster to win.

We have triplets in Rodgers Garrett and Breece 

We have probably the best secondary in football and maybe best DL in football as well.

But those strengths are NOT the 3 things that matter

The entire season comes down to 3 things:

1. Injuries Obvious. If our OL gets injured, Rodgers gets injured. Or Wilson or Sauce it will make our success much more difficult.

2. Not who we play but when we play them. How injured is the opponent? Is their QB injured? What momentum good or bad do they have? What is the rest and travel delta? Like last year the timing of the Green Bay game with them coming off an international game, Rodgers thumb were all important elements of us being able to win.

3. A handful of plays. Maybe 5 or 6 will be the difference between 12 and 5 or 7 and 10. Do we make the 50 yarder to win the game. Do we have a key penalty at the wrong time. No JFM roughing and we beat New England. Does the receiver make the end of game catch or not? (Looking at you Berrios) change like 4 plays and we make the playoffs last year.

Our table is set, and if we can step up get some luck and have a few things go our way we can be great. But we could also be 5 and 12 if things break badly

 

 

What about the jets pulling out of their arse a game they should lost week 2 .   Big difference starting the season 0-2 and 1-1 .     Jets faced a lot back of Qbs last year.     How many games would they have lost if the starter played .       My point is you can say anything about the games you could have won.      You could lost a lot other games you won too.   
 

This year no team not going to be unprepared for the Jets  defense line ( last year they surprise everyone).  How teams going to beat them . Three step drops and the ball out to any one rbs , Te, or Wr .   I don’t care what pass rush you have Qb gets rid of the ball that fast it doesn’t matter what you have on the defense line.     Second no huddle on offense - stop Jets from substituting on defense.   A lot these defenders aren’t used to play extended time.   

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11 hours ago, JKlecko said:

I think Mekhi is going to stay healthy and have a great season.

I'm not worried about Hall. He is a rare athlete, and I look for him to have a similar season to Adrien Peterson.

I don't think it's so hard to expect improvement from the D.  Most of the players return and they have another year experience in the scheme, so they will know the scheme and each other well enough to be able to add new wrinkles and make adjustments.  This will be the third year in the scheme, and that should lead to more confidence and comfort,

With better punting, opponents will be pinned deeper, which could have them being more conservative, and that could help our D if we aren't too aggressive, play the run better, and are able to limit, if not shut down, passes to TEs and RBs over the middle. Better field position should help our offense score more points, making things easier on our D.  With more sustained drives and points from the offense, opponents will play into the hands and strength of the D.  With a fresher, more rested D, and tighter play, they should create more 3 and outs and TOs.  In preseason, I saw more Jets defenders attempting to punch the ball out, and I think we could see more FFs this year, as well as more picks.

Rodgers should help the D immensely.  Not only has he already helped the DBs, but the offense should be able to sustain a lot more drives, score a lot more points, thus keeping the D more rested, and with leads in the 4th Qtr., enabling the Edge rushers to be able to tee off on opposing QBs. 

In terms of units, I think the play of the D begins and ends with the DL.  Q is coming off a breakout season, and should be even better. The question with the DL will be whether Woods and Jefferson can be an improvement over Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd.  Both had good seasons last year.  I think both Woods and Jefferson can be better, but whether they will could depend on how Ulbrich/Saleh decide to rotate them.  If they play Woods on early downs and Jefferson, JFM and/or Clemons on passing downs, then they could definitely be better as I think Woods is better vs the run than either Shepherd or Rankins and Jefferson is better rushing the passer than either.  Undoubtedly, the Jets will get caught sometimes with the wrong one the field, but overall, I think they can be better.  Also, JFM and Clemons can make a difference inside.  Here is where JJ, McDonald, and Huff, in particular can make a huge difference.  I look for them to create more TOs, both in terms of strip sacks and forced picks, and a lot more incompletions leading to opponents' 3 and outs.  JJ is no longer a rookie, and looks greatly improved from last season.  I think he will have a breakout year.  McDonald is going to terrorize opposing QBs, and Huff is playing for a big contract either from the Jets or from another team in FA.  Barring injuries, our DEs should feast this year and terrorize opposing QBs due to being fresher and playing with more leads.

With regards to the DBs, this is where I perhaps will see the greatest improvement.  Sauce is no longer a rookie, and he worked very hard this offseason to improve, and the CS is challenging him to get more picks this season. I look to see Sauce get at least 4-5 picks.  Sauce and Reed have a year's experience together.  Adams will be a huge improvement at FS and I expect him to add some picks.  Whitehead had a bad year last year, and he has looked better in TC and preseason and has credited both Chuck Clark and Adams' attitudes and work ethics for making him better. I'd have felt better if we had Chuck Clark than Adrian Amos, but Amos will help vs the run and should be better depth than last year.  Davis has even looked better, but hopefully he rarely sees the field.  I would have felt a lot better about our secondary if Guidry and/or Moreland were on the team rather than Hall, although I expect him to be gone once Echols comes back, and if not, then when Warren and JBC come back.

With regards to the LBs, Quincy Williams looks to be improved.  Sherwood should be improved. The big question mark with Sherwood is can he come close to the play of Kwon Alexander, and can the LBs stop TEs and RBs over the middle?  I think Surratt and Barnes improve the depth at LB, and Surratt could improve coverage over the middle, although Barnes is still pretty raw. We'll see if Mosely can come close to playing as well this season as he did last season. If so, the D should definitely be better than last year.

I think our pass rush and pass defense should be better overall. Playing with a lead more often should limit opponents' ability to run the ball a lot, and that should help vs the run. The main question is if we can limit or stop teams from being able to throw at will to TEs and RBs over the middle.  If we can, then the sky is the limit.

I love how "I think Mekhi gonna be healthy for the whole season" followed by "Breece = AP, so he fine" are two throw-away sentences @ the top of a seven-paragraph-battleship of a post.

I love the optimism, brotha, I'm genuinely excited AF as well.

I just think you're at cult levels of belief that I'm just not comfortable joining. 

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14 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

 

I love how "I think Mekhi gonna be healthy for the whole season" followed by "Breece = AP, so he fine" are two throw-away sentences @ the top of a seven-paragraph-battleship of a post.

I love the optimism, brotha, I'm genuinely excited AF as well.

I just think you're at cult levels of belief that I'm just not comfortable joining. 

It's fine that you don't agree.  I know my optimism regarding Becton and Breece may not be rewarded, but worrying about it won't change one thing.  I could take a more skeptical approach and refuse to be optimistic, but then I could miss out on a whole season of fun worrying and refusing to enjoy it.  I'm not gonna do that to myself after mostly suffering through football season for most of the last 58 years being a Jets fan.  I didn't say more about Becton and Breece, because I wanted to focus mostly on the D and why I think it should be better than last season.  I just threw in the statements about Becton and Breece at the last minute so as not to totally ignore those points of the poster I quoted.

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40 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Salary payer 

So “we” is entirely ******* appropriate 

No it's not... Unless you play on the team or work on the team, we is not appropriate... No matter how you ******* feel. 

Your sponsorship of the team is giving them money to be a fan... Nothing you say or do will change the outcome of the team... Hence we is not appropriate 

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2 hours ago, JKlecko said:

It's fine that you don't agree.  I know my optimism regarding Becton and Breece may not be rewarded, but worrying about it won't change one thing.  I could take a more skeptical approach and refuse to be optimistic, but then I could miss out on a whole season of fun worrying and refusing to enjoy it.  I'm not gonna do that to myself after mostly suffering through football season for most of the last 58 years being a Jets fan.  I didn't say more about Becton and Breece, because I wanted to focus mostly on the D and why I think it should be better than last season.  I just threw in the statements about Becton and Breece at the last minute so as not to totally ignore those points of the poster I quoted.

Actually, being positively-surprised enhances the enjoyment and nothing stings quite like disappointment. Ever been on a Tinder date?

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53 minutes ago, Reasonable Jets Fan said:

No it's not... Unless you play on the team or work on the team, we is not appropriate... No matter how you ******* feel. 

Your sponsorship of the team is giving them money to be a fan... Nothing you say or do will change the outcome of the team... Hence we is not appropriate 

Yeah they’d totally exist if no one watched. What a goofy ******* take.

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6 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Yeah they’d totally exist if no one watched. What a goofy ******* take.

Ummm what? That's not even an argument... I laid out why there is definitive lines... Sponsorship does not equal ownership... 

If your voice helped changed the team in some way I would reconsider... But you have effect in outcome of games so how can it be 'we' 

There are plenty of sports that exist without fans... So your argument is moot... They get paid more from your sponsorship but that is all

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