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defending Bills’ 12 personnel packages


RoadFan

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I am going to preface this by admitting that I won’t be drawing up plays on the board anytime soon.

That said, it is somewhat obvious Buffalo’s offense does not have an advantage against the Jets in 3-wide sets.   They’ll be using a lot of 2 TE formations with Knox and Kincaid.  Maybe some toss sweep running plays to avoid QW?  Screens to James Cook.  Force the DEs to keep contain.  Try to get the TEs running routes against a LB.  

For those with the requisite high-level Xs and Os knowledge, the question is, what will Ulbrich do about it?

 

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That will be smart of Buffalo to run that offense, they should also run hurry up most of the game.

The Jets have to make sure they do not let the TES get a free easy release.

LBs are the big worry for me with this team, our two starters to me like most lbs can make tackles but they are not great at moving up and making tackles close to the los.  They are forced to cover too much ground.

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The Bills are calling it their “11 1/2” package. Knox is going to be their de facto Y tight end and Kincaid will be split out as a slot receiver. It remains to be seen whether Kincaid will be able to do that job, but they liked what they saw out of him in camp. Remember, Kincaid didn’t do any athletic testing because he’d been injured throughout the draft process, so who knows if he has that ability? There are a bunch of “athletic” TEs in every draft who wash out of the league because the NFL has DBs who can match up. The Bills thought is that they want to have Cook and Kincaid threaten the middle of the field so Diggs can have some space to work outside, and Allen doesn’t have to turn every play into a scramble drill when Diggs gets bracketed. 

 

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Bills are calling it their “11 1/2” package, because Knox is going to be their de facto Y tight end and Kincaid will be split out as a slot receiver. It remains to be seen whether Kincaid will be able to do that job, but they liked what they saw out of him in camp. Kincaid didn’t do any athletic testing because he’d been injured throughout the draft process, so who knows if he has that ability—there are a million “athletic” TEs in every draft who wash out of the league because every team in the NFL has DBs who can match up. The idea behind it is that they want to have Cook and Kincaid threaten the middle of the field so Diggs can have some space to work outside, and Allen doesn’t have to turn every play into a scramble drill when Diggs gets bracketed. 

 

Their plan makes so much sense.  If it works, the system will negate much of what the Jets excel at which is rush the passer off the edge and coverage on the outside.   
 

Quinnen Williams is going to have to blow some of these plays up by slicing through the middle…

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10 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Their plan makes so much sense.  If it works, the system will negate everything the Jets excel at which is rush the passer off the edge and coverage on the outside.   
 

Quinnen Williams is going to have to blow some of these plays up by slicing through the middle…

Eh. It remains to be seen if it works or not. The Jets play quarters with Michael Carter in place of the third LB, which keeps Mosely away from actually having to cover anyone, (though they did get Mosely isolated on Knox last year for that big TD before the half). Personally, I think they’re going to have a tough time putting the toothpaste back in the tube with Allen by trying to make him play disciplined small ball. If they want to play it five, six yards at a clip in the passing game, Saleh will be happy to let them do that. But will Allen want to do that for four quarters, especially if Quinnen Williams and company start smacking them around? 

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2 hours ago, shuler82 said:

Going to be hard to play small ball when we’re up 21-0 at the end of the 1st.

Well I certainly hope that is what happens. But this post serves as a reminder, because I tell you I keep forgetting, the Jets actually have an offense now!

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Eh. It remains to be seen if it works or not. The Jets play quarters with Michael Carter in place of the third LB, which keeps Mosely away from actually having to cover anyone, (though they did get Mosely isolated on Knox last year for that big TD before the half). Personally, I think they’re going to have a tough time putting the toothpaste back in the tube with Allen by trying to make him play disciplined small ball. If they want to play it five, six yards at a clip in the passing game, Saleh will be happy to let them do that. But will Allen want to do that for four quarters, especially if Quinnen Williams and company start smacking them around? 

Yeah, it'll be interesting how they play on Monday, I would assume match quarters but it would also depend on the personnel on the field to go from 4-3 to 3-4 front.  What I'm more interested is to see the defensive stunts towards Kinkaid and see if they can get them confused.  I wouldn't also be surprised if they relied on inside pass rush, and played contain on the edge with Allen as well.  Keep him in the pocket, and force him to play dink and dunk, which he can do at times. 

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Some of the Bills offense will be determined by the Jets offense. If the Jets offense can establish chunk plays and explosives and more importantly put TDs on the board and without protracted drives (not FGs), then the Bills will be forced to match. 

Aside from the offense, I would expect the Jets to play 6 DBs most of the game, with a 4 man DL front (heavy rotation) and a strong side LB to check the TE at LOS. The 6 DBs would be Sauce, MC2, DJ Reed, J-Dub, Amos, and Adams. This formula is fast and ferocious, can cover and tackle. They may give up yards in the primary run game but they'd contain Allen and any double TE passing attack. You might even put Sauce on a TE now and them. In man.

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5 hours ago, win4ever said:

Yeah, it'll be interesting how they play on Monday, I would assume match quarters but it would also depend on the personnel on the field to go from 4-3 to 3-4 front.  What I'm more interested is to see the defensive stunts towards Kinkaid and see if they can get them confused.  I wouldn't also be surprised if they relied on inside pass rush, and played contain on the edge with Allen as well.  Keep him in the pocket, and force him to play dink and dunk, which he can do at times. 

Match scares me because if they block it up it’s a guaranteed first down or more to whoever Mosely picks up. I do wonder if the presence of Tony Adams unlocks some different coverage variations and lets them be more aggressive with the blitz. Strange that they’ve kept Adams under wraps all preseason. 

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8 hours ago, RoadFan said:

Their plan makes so much sense.  If it works, the system will negate much of what the Jets excel at which is rush the passer off the edge and coverage on the outside.   
 

Quinnen Williams is going to have to blow some of these plays up by slicing through the middle…

While it does makes sense to avoid the strengths of the jets D, it also makes the Bills try to win doing what they are not good at - short passes and running. The  Bills are at their best throwing down the field. It’s already a partial victory for the Jets D if the Bills believe they can’t beat the jets D doing what the Bills do best.

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4 hours ago, Vader said:

Some of the Bills offense will be determined by the Jets offense. If the Jets offense can establish chunk plays and explosives and more importantly put TDs on the board and without protracted drives (not FGs), then the Bills will be forced to match. 

Aside from the offense, I would expect the Jets to play 6 DBs most of the game, with a 4 man DL front (heavy rotation) and a strong side LB to check the TE at LOS. The 6 DBs would be Sauce, MC2, DJ Reed, J-Dub, Amos, and Adams. This formula is fast and ferocious, can cover and tackle. They may give up yards in the primary run game but they'd contain Allen and any double TE passing attack. You might even put Sauce on a TE now and them. In man.

Perhaps Suratt is the answer if the jets want a LB who has the speed to cover the TE.

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9 hours ago, Larz said:

The whole defense is centered around the idea that pressure creates mistakes. They will give up chunk plays in the screen game but Salehs philosophy regardless of the package is hit the QB. 
 

 

I keep expecting quincy to intercept a screen pass because when he guesses right on a screen play, he’s 7 yards over the line of scrimmage before the ball gets to the RB.

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17 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I keep expecting quincy to intercept a screen pass because when he guesses right on a screen play, he’s 7 yards over the line of scrimmage before the ball gets to the RB.

That would be something! 
 

Sherwood is going to be tested.  As others have said it could be a 3 safety look too. 
 

Sauce on Kincaid?

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10 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm wondering if we're going to see a lot of 3 safety looks with Whitehead, Adams and Amos. These three were on the field the first defensive snap against the Giants in preseason

Like you are saying, a lot of our Defenses this hame and year against the pass will be those 3 safeties and our 3 CBs Sauce, Reed, and Carter II. That leaves just Mosley at MLB and 4 down lineman. That minimizes our coverage risk at LB with DBs covering that section of the field, and Jets should be able to always provide pressure with 4. They just have to change personel whenever they can possibly so they keep guys fresh.

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7 hours ago, Maxman said:

Well I certainly hope that is what happens. But this post serves as a reminder, because I tell you I keep forgetting, the Jets actually have an offense now!

Lol, fell into the same trap. I was reading the thread with low-key anxiety until I got to @shuler82 post. Then I was like, waitaminute, we are capable of causing the same kind of anxiety from an offensive standpoint now! Phewwww!!!

 

 

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53 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

If we can stop Allen from running then we win.  If we can't then it's going to be a close game and we win.  The only way we lose is fumbles/turnovers.  I like our chances.  I still can't believe we're 2.5 dogs.    

Lolwut!?!?! I get the hype backlash, but to have the Jets as any kind of home dog, for the opening game of the season, given the reason for the hype, is mindboggling. 

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i will be truly a nervous wreck for this game.  I have no idea what to expect.  I have gone into many season where I think they are going to be dominant and they get pummeled and I have gone into many season where I thought they would suck and they somehow win.  This season sounds promising but who knows as anything can happen.

My blood pressure will be at an all time high

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Match scares me because if they block it up it’s a guaranteed first down or more to whoever Mosely picks up. I do wonder if the presence of Tony Adams unlocks some different coverage variations and lets them be more aggressive with the blitz. Strange that they’ve kept Adams under wraps all preseason. 

I think their entire defensive philosophy depends on pressure without overloading blitzes, and funneling things to the middle of the field.  However, they seem to change it up with mobile QBs like Lamar last year, where they played more outside contain and just let them sit in the pocket if inside pressure wasn't there.  

The downside is Diggs is an extremely good route runner that can improvise if a play breaks down, and get open down the field, so letting them stay in the pocket may not work.  Personally, I think for a guy like Allen, I'd send more stunts and blitzes and see if we can force some mistakes and then play from the front.  They tend to abandon their run game at times, which should allow for guys like Huff/McDonald to come in fresh.  

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7 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

If we can stop Allen from running then we win.  If we can't then it's going to be a close game and we win.  The only way we lose is fumbles/turnovers.  I like our chances.  I still can't believe we're 2.5 dogs.    

Agreed.  I think we can hang with them coverage wise,  it's when Allen pulls it down and runs that scares me.  Do they run some "spy" type looks ?  Show rushing five then drop someone in the middle to take Allen if he attempt to scramble.   He is going to get some yards.  Just need to make him pay for it when he does. 

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I think it’s pretty simple. All attention on Allen. You stop Allen, you win the game. I would bring safety help to Diggs wherever he lines up and have Allen force the ball to G.Davis and the TEs. 
 

I don’t think Gabe Davis vs. Reed is a favorable matchup for Buffalo and I I don’t think their TEs will do enough to ‘win’ this game if we able to maintain pressure on Allen and bracket Diggs. 

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