Could It Be This Simple? 30 years of bad QB's, 30 Years of Defensive/Rookie Head Coaches

[Warfish]

For your consideration.

For the past 30 seasons, the Jets QB's have been amongst the consistently worst in the NFL (draft picked QB's), with only a scant few truly decent seasons, usually by old vet guys we picked up (Vinny T., Fitzy one year).  The best of our draft, Pennington, was really not that great vs. the leagues passing averages/leaders.

For the past 30 seasons, we're regularly been ranked 15 or worse (mostly much worse, in the 20-32 area quite often) on Offense.

And for the past 30 seasons, we've had an almost unending roster of DEFENSIVE and ROOKIE Head Coaches.

Saleh (D, and a rookie), Gase (O, and not a rookie, but obviously not right in the head), Bowles (D, and a rookie), Ryan (D, and a rookie, but at least had some pedigree and success), Mangini (D, and a rookie), Edwards (D, and a rookie), Groh (D, and a rookie), Parcells (D, definitely not a rookie, and had pedigree), Kotite (O, not a rookie, awful), Carroll (D, and a rookie).  

That is a disturbingly consistent trend of hiring Defensive-minded guys, as rookie head coaches.  

Is there some underlying reason why Jets Ownership has been SO deeply dedicated to rookie head coaches, and former Defensive Coordinators/Defensive players?  

Correlation doesn't always equal causation, but in this case it's damn hard to look at this history and not put 1 + 1 together to make two.

I mean if I'm analyzing why we keep having QB's bust, and keep producing 25th-32nd ranked Offenses in an Offensive-driven league, is this not the FIRST thing you see and go "hmmm, maybe this should change and we should try something different".

I get many fans hate recycled coaches, but this is a huge reason why I wanted to hire Mike McCarty, not Crazy-eye Gase, in 2019.  Right idea (O), very much the wrong guy in Gase. 

Like Parcells, McCarthy had real pedigree as a Head Coach, he was not a rookie in any way, and had a track record of successful Offenses.  And look how he's doing in Dallas, 32-21 so far (Saleh is 12-25) with Scoring O's ranked 17th, 1st, 4th and 5th (in 23 so far).  Was he perfect, no, would he have guaranteed a Super Bowl, no.  But MAYBE, just MAYBE, our O might have finished above the 24-32 zone we've been in for most of the past decade!!!

I mean it just bonks you on the head when you look at it, STOP HIRING D-CO's, STOP HIRING ROOKIE HEAD COACHES ffs.  Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting things to change is insanity.

Maybe look at what works in the modern NFL, and hire a Head Coach accordingly.  Experience, Offensive-minded, track record of actual offensive and winning success.  

I mean, could it be that simple?  Because you'd have to try, actively, to be as bad on Offense as we've been, and to have every QB we pick bust/be worst in the NFL as often as we have.  By pure chance we shoulda got a decent QB by now, and yet, we don't.

Something to ponder for the eventual post-Saleh era that's coming sooner or not-quite-as-soon but still coming.

 

[JetPotato]

Yes

[Jetpain]

Poor Head Coaching choices with no HC experience

Rookie Head Coaches who assemble amazingly weak coaching staffs 

Weak GM's

Poor reporting structure prior to this year.  HC did not report to GM

Poor Drafts with continued trend of defensive players in an offensive league

Poor Player Development, especially at QB.  Rushing rookie QB's onto the field before they are ready and keep repeating same flawed plan 

 

 

[slimjasi]

Agreed, but in typical jets fashion, the only two offensive head coaches that we hired in that timeframe (both with experience) were Kotite and Gase - who were both among the worst coaches we have ever had. LOL
 

also, one of the rookie defensive coaches we let go turned out to be good and was definitely fired prematurely (Pete Carol). 
 

So, there is no magic formula, although I do agree that I’d like to see the next coach be an offensive guy with experience. The last two coaches I pounded the table for were Doug Pederson and Mike McCarthy. Either of those guys would have been really good hires, IMO

[JetPotato]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Agreed, but in typical jets fashion, the only two offensive head coaches that we hired in that timeframe (both with experience) were Kotite and Gase - who were both among the worst coaches we have ever had. LOL
 

also, one of the rookie defensive coaches we let go turned out to be good and was definitely fired prematurely (Pete Carol). 
 

So, there is no magic formula, although I do agree that I’d like to see the next coach be an offensive guy with experience. The last two coaches I pounded the table for were Doug Pederson and Mike McCarthy. Either of those guys would have been really good hires, IMO

Gase and Kotite highlight the fact that they have no idea what we're saying when we ask for a "proven" NFL coach.

Proven winners, you morons. Not proven losers. You are a NY franchise. Act like one.

 

[peekskill68]

Here's the thing I ask myself. Who would be more successful here - Kyle Shanahan with this roster and QB, or Saleh with the 49er roster and QB? I tend to believe the biggest variable is the QB and that is on the GM...

[docdhc]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

For your consideration.

For the past 30 seasons, the Jets QB's have been amongst the consistently worst in the NFL (draft picked QB's), with only a scant few truly decent seasons, usually by old vet guys we picked up (Vinny T., Fitzy one year).  The best of our draft, Pennington, was really not that great vs. the leagues passing averages/leaders.

For the past 30 seasons, we're regularly been ranked 15 or worse (mostly much worse, in the 20-32 area quite often) on Offense.

And for the past 30 seasons, we've had an almost unending roster of DEFENSIVE and ROOKIE Head Coaches.

Saleh (D, and a rookie), Gase (O, and not a rookie, but obviously not right in the head), Bowles (D, and a rookie), Ryan (D, and a rookie, but at least had some pedigree and success), Mangini (D, and a rookie), Edwards (D, and a rookie), Groh (D, and a rookie), Parcells (D, definitely not a rookie, and had pedigree), Kotite (O, not a rookie, awful), Carroll (D, and a rookie).  

That is a disturbingly consistent trend of hiring Defensive-minded guys, as rookie head coaches.  

Is there some underlying reason why Jets Ownership has been SO deeply dedicated to rookie head coaches, and former Defensive Coordinators/Defensive players?  

Correlation doesn't always equal causation, but in this case it's damn hard to look at this history and not put 1 + 1 together to make two.

I mean if I'm analyzing why we keep having QB's bust, and keep producing 25th-32nd ranked Offenses in an Offensive-driven league, is this not the FIRST thing you see and go "hmmm, maybe this should change and we should try something different".

I get many fans hate recycled coaches, but this is a huge reason why I wanted to hire Mike McCarty, not Crazy-eye Gase, in 2019.  Right idea (O), very much the wrong guy in Gase. 

Like Parcells, McCarthy had real pedigree as a Head Coach, he was not a rookie in any way, and had a track record of successful Offenses.  And look how he's doing in Dallas, 32-21 so far (Saleh is 12-25) with Scoring O's ranked 17th, 1st, 4th and 5th (in 23 so far).  Was he perfect, no, would he have guaranteed a Super Bowl, no.  But MAYBE, just MAYBE, our O might have finished above the 24-32 zone we've been in for most of the past decade!!!

I mean it just bonks you on the head when you look at it, STOP HIRING D-CO's, STOP HIRING ROOKIE HEAD COACHES ffs.  Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting things to change is insanity.

Maybe look at what works in the modern NFL, and hire a Head Coach accordingly.  Experience, Offensive-minded, track record of actual offensive and winning success.  

I mean, could it be that simple?  Because you'd have to try, actively, to be as bad on Offense as we've been, and to have every QB we pick bust/be worst in the NFL as often as we have.  By pure chance we shoulda got a decent QB by now, and yet, we don't.

Something to ponder for the eventual post-Saleh era that's coming sooner or not-quite-as-soon but still coming.

 

Look around the league. Rams, McVeigh, Packers Lafleur, Chiefs, Reid, Ravens, Harbaugh, Bills, McDermott, Lions, Campbell, Dolphins, McDaniel, Bengals, Taylor, Eagles, Siriani, Jags, Pederson, Titans, Vrabel, Steelers, Tomlin, Cowboys,McCarthy, Rivera, Commanders, Broncos, Payton. That’s off the top of my head over 1/2 the coaches in the league who all had success in their first head coaching position. Some are on their 2nd team now but they all had success in their first team. Most are from offensive side but some are not. I  don’t think it’s the pattern we’ve followed we just picked the wrong guys. 

[The Crusher]

Simple, yet ineffective. 

[Warfish]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Agreed, but in typical jets fashion, the only two offensive head coaches that we hired in that timeframe (both with experience) were Kotite and Gase - who were both among the worst coaches we have ever had. LOL

Gae never had anything all that close to a pedigree of success in his experience outside of his O-Co year with Peyton Manning.

Gase was clearly nuts, how he succeeded in interviewing, I'll never know.  But just on the metrics, he clearly hurt Tannehill, whose got hurt and whose production declined under Gase, and Gase's scoring Offenses in Miami went from 17th, to  28th to 26th, and whose Offense (Yards) went from 24th, to 25th to 31st!!!  That is NOT success by ANY reasonable measure!  Why the hell did he get the hire? 

Kotite, (all the way back in 1996) at least looked like (from his resume) a guy who could Coach (he did ok with the Eagles), but the Eagles also declined under his tenure in record, but even then his offenses were mostly top 10-12 (with some top 5) in scoring and yards.  When you look at his career, his numbers fall off the face of the earth with the Jets vs. the rest of his career.  I call that one a fluke frankly.

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

also, one of the rookie defensive coaches we let go turned out to be good and was definitely fired prematurely (Pete Carol).

Just like that Coach's current QB, he too had to go away from the being an NFL top-guy for most of a decade before he could come back and have NFL-level success.  

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

So, there is no magic formula, although I do agree that I’d like to see the next coach be an offensive guy with experience. The last two coaches I pounded the table for were Doug Pederson and Mike McCarthy. Either of those guys would have been really good hires, IMO

I don't think this is magic.  I think this is obvious.  We keep hiring rookie Defensive Head Coaches, and they keep drafting QB's who bust under their leadership, and they keep producing Offenses that rank in the bottom of the league and (mostly) have loosing records.

It's got to change if we want to see change.

[Jet_Engine1]

That's why I screamed for McCarthy and lost my marbles when they hired

 

[southparkcpa]

16 minutes ago, Jetpain said:

Poor Head Coaching choices with no HC experience

Rookie Head Coaches who assemble amazingly weak coaching staffs 

Weak GM's

Poor reporting structure prior to this year.  HC did not report to GM

Poor Drafts with continued trend of defensive players in an offensive league

Poor Player Development, especially at QB.  Rushing rookie QB's onto the field before they are ready and keep repeating same flawed plan 

 

 

Is that all you got???? 😂

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Gae never had anything all that close to a pedigree of success in his experience outside of his O-Co year with Peyton Manning.

Gase was clearly nuts, how he succeeded in interviewing, I'll never know.  But just on the metrics, he clearly hurt Tannehill, whose got hurt and whose production declined under Gase, and Gase's scoring Offenses in Miami went from 17th, to  28th to 26th, and whose Offense (Yards) went from 24th, to 25th to 31st!!!  That is NOT success by ANY reasonable measure!  Why the hell did he get the hire? 

Kotite, (all the way back in 1996) at least looked like (from his resume) a guy who could Coach (he did ok with the Eagles), but the Eagles also declined under his tenure in record, but even then his offenses were mostly top 10-12 (with some top 5) in scoring and yards.  When you look at his career, his numbers fall off the face of the earth with the Jets vs. the rest of his career.  I call that one a fluke frankly.

Just like that Coach's current QB, he too had to go away from the being an NFL top-guy for most of a decade before he could come back and have NFL-level success.  

I don't think this is magic.  I think this is obvious.  We keep hiring rookie Defensive Head Coaches, and they keep drafting QB's who bust under their leadership, and they keep producing Offenses that rank in the bottom of the league and (mostly) have loosing records.

It's got to change if we want to see change.

“Nothing changes if nothing changes”

[Warfish]

7 minutes ago, docdhc said:

Look around the league. Rams, McVeigh, Packers Lafleur, Chiefs, Reid, Ravens, Harbaugh, Bills, McDermott, Lions, Campbell, Dolphins, McDaniel, Bengals, Taylor, Eagles, Siriani, Jags, Pederson, Titans, Vrabel, Steelers, Tomlin, Cowboys,McCarthy, Rivera, Commanders, Broncos, Payton. That’s off the top of my head over 1/2 the coaches in the league who all had success in their first head coaching position. Some are on their 2nd team now but they all had success in their first team. Most are from offensive side but some are not. I  don’t think it’s the pattern we’ve followed we just picked the wrong guys. 

What amazes me more than anything, is that after 30 years of endless rookie D-Coaches, and spending the vast bulk of our top picks on D, there are still fans who can't see it, and still want to draft more edges, and hire more Defensive Coaches.  Someone will have to explain that to me at some point (might make for a good thread of it's own, "Why hiring D-Co's as rookie HC's and drafting Edges and DT's every year will lead to success!")

[Zachtomims47]

Let me tell you what it is. Simple actually. Our HCs, GMs and QBs/possibility drafting top one never align. From what I can remember at least. With the combo of pressure of Woody wanting to “win now” after 2 years because they could never draft well. 

So it would be sh*t rosters/make shift veteran teams with journeyman QBs that get you no where. 

I don’t think Saleh is a bad coach. He has his flaws but he just hasn’t found a QB like everyone else. IMO the roster is built out the best it has in a while and would continue. They just need to find a QB. 

I’m also haunted by the past of horrible GMs. Taking Jamal Adams is prob the worst pick of the last decade. 

[T0mShane]

Seven of the eight teams that made the Divisional Round last year were coached by offensive savants, and it could be argued that the eighth team (Bills) is only good because Daboll developed Josh Allen. You look at how bad Staley is ******* up the Chargers compared to how McDaniel is elevating the Dolphins personnel (plz kill me) and it’s definitely a makes-u-think proposition. 

[T0mShane]

4 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

That's why I screamed for McCarthy and lost my marbles when they hired

 

To be fair, McCarthy stinks

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

"he just hasn’t found a QB like everyone else."

Have you considered that rookie former D-Co Head Coaches may in fact be partially responsible for why every prospect we draft at QB turns out to be a huge bust (Geno, Darnold, Wilson, Hackenberg, Clemens) at worst or just barely adequate (Sanchez, Pennington) at best?

[Matt39]

It’s the owner silly. Why do you think the Knicks embarrass themselves on a yearly basis?

who are the nepo baby owners who have succeeded?

[Bronx]

We could have had this guy coaching and he would have developed WIlson much better.   

Does Woody or JD fear veteran coaches?  

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Have you considered that rookie former D-Co Head Coaches may in fact be partially responsible for why every prospect we draft at QB turns out to be a huge bust (Geno, Darnold, Wilson, Hackenberg, Clemens) at worst or just barely adequate (Sanchez, Pennington) at best?

I do think Saleh would be doing really well if he had a Jared Goff-like QB and the conversation around him would be much different. The defense would be hell to play against if the offense was putting up 24+, but alas. Regrettably, they went with Zach and now they’re ******* doomed. If they had an experienced offensive mind in those interviews with Wilson, you have to wonder if that guy would have been able to identify Wilson as a fraud. I mean, even those of us (as fans!) who looked at him pre-draft and knew he was a fish could see it. You could see how Saleh would defer to LaFleur and Douglas, but why? Rob Calabrese was given a voice in that process? It was a bunch of cocky young coaches and a GM who drafted Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz. 

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, Bronx said:

We could have had this guy coaching and he would have developed WIlson much better. 

No way man. Dak is currently backsliding under him. He hired Brian Schottenheimer as his OC. Zach is unsalvageable regardless, but McCarthy was not the answer

[NorthCoastJetsFan]

15 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Have you considered that rookie former D-Co Head Coaches may in fact be partially responsible for why every prospect we draft at QB turns out to be a huge bust (Geno, Darnold, Wilson, Hackenberg, Clemens) at worst or just barely adequate (Sanchez, Pennington) at best?

We'll never know what the outcome would have been, but I sometimes wonder how things would be different if Greg Knapp hadn't passed before Zach's first train in g camp.

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

What amazes me more than anything, is that after 30 years of endless rookie D-Coaches, and spending the vast bulk of our top picks on D, there are still fans who can't see it, and still want to draft more edges, and hire more Defensive Coaches.  Someone will have to explain that to me at some point (might make for a good thread of it's own, "Why hiring rookie D-Co's as HC and drafting Edges and DT's every year will lead to success!")

I didn’t mind the McDonalds pick, brand loyalty maybe? But, him being a healthy scratch on game day and us not a pass rush? That’s just bizarre and suggest something just off. 

[Ron Rico]

I don't give a sh*t what happened before JD, Saleh, and Zach. If you want to take that bad trip down memory lane, go for it. It's all Woody and his even dumber brother. 

JD, Salad and number 2 have got to go. Yeah, I know, Woody will replace that sh*t show with another sh*t show. 

No future. No hope. Give up. F this team and F the NFL. 

[Ron Rico]

10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 Brian Schottenheimer

Exhibit A in that "bring back Rex" thread. 

[DoubleDown]

We can analyze it to death, but in my mind, it's pretty simple.

Nothing moves the needle more than a good quarterback.  Competent quarterback play makes a bad team average, an average team good, and a good team great. Success without a good quarterback is possible in short spurts, but it's not sustainable.

It really is that simple. The Jets need a good quarterback. Everything else is a distraction from the main issue.

[TuscanyTile2]

Possibly the reason we always end up with all these rookie HCs is because veteran HCs don't want to coach here.  I do wonder if that might change a little now with the talent on this roster (good enough to probably finish with 6 wins!)  Though maybe AR8 demands that Saleh returns.

I agree that it's long past time that we go with an offensive HC though (and Gase doesn't count).  I still feel worried about the idea of moving on from JD though.  I'm confident that we can (and usually) do a LOT worse.  

[Ron Rico]

5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Possibly the reason we always end up with all these rookie HCs is because veteran HCs don't want to coach here.  I do wonder if that might change a little now with the talent on this roster (good enough to probably finish with 6 wins!)  Though maybe AR8 demands that Saleh returns.

I agree that it's long past time that we go with an offensive HC though (and Gase doesn't count).  I still feel worried about the idea of moving on from JD though.  I'm confident that we can (and usually) do a LOT worse.  

Can you name any veteran coaches that Woody interviewed since 2000 (or the year he owned the team)?

[Warfish]

18 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Nothing moves the needle more than a good quarterback.

And what helps a QB be good more:

1. A rookie D-Co, D-focused Head Coach and iffy-at-best O-Co's/QB Coaches?

2. An experienced Offensive Head Coach, with a track record of Offensive success, who either calls plays himself, or has a dogsbody O-Co helping him?

"We no QB" is overly simplistic.  We also have had almost no Coaches who understand or can call a high-production offense.

[Zachtomims47]

49 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Have you considered that rookie former D-Co Head Coaches may in fact be partially responsible for why every prospect we draft at QB turns out to be a huge bust (Geno, Darnold, Wilson, Hackenberg, Clemens) at worst or just barely adequate (Sanchez, Pennington) at best?

Hm I don’t actually. Outside of Geno 8 years later, they didn’t go on to become successful. None of these QBs were top tier prospects. Darnold was I guess, but again, didn’t align. Had a sh*t roster due to poor GM taking safety’s back to back. 

Head Coaching is basically, can you lead a team and can you survive long enough to find a QB. 

[Vader]

could have had McCarthy.

besides him, I don't think this was an a attractive destination tbh

[Ron Rico]

Just now, Vader said:

could have had McCarthy.

besides him, I don't think this was an a attractive destination tbh

No one who "knows" will come work for Woody Johnson. They all run. 

[Vader]

4 minutes ago, Ron Rico said:

No one who "knows" will come work for Woody Johnson. They all run. 

I mean what's that all about? Doesn't make sense 

[doitny]

its hard to judge Saleh when he has been stuck with not just a bad QB , but statistically the worst QB in NFL history. now he does get some blame for drafting and keeping him but if Rodgers was here we wouldnt even be having this talk.

most if not all these good offensive HCs all have QBs.

1.McCarthy: he went from Rodgers to Dak and didnt draft either of them. could he be good at drafting a QB? or good without one? 

2. McDaniel: went 8-5 with Tua last year 1-3 without him.

3.Taylor: 1-2 this year with Burrow hurting. if he has to miss some games we will see just how good he is without a top QB.

4.Peterson: 1-2 

5.Daboll: 1-2 for an offense guy getting shut out by Dallas and the 1st 2 qtrs by Arizona isnt so hot. and Jones even though better than Zach is not good. i thought he was a QB whisperer?

6.Mcvey: 1-2

7.LaFluer: 2-2 we will see how good he is without Rodgers. beat the crappy Bears and a one point win vs NO. Love came back last night to put up decent numbers but is completing 56% of his passes. there not going to win at that rate.

8. Payton: 0-3 great with Brees but winless with an old Russ Wilson.

now these are just a few and there are some who are really good but the common denominator is the real good ones all have QBs. so to answer the OP ... no it isnt that simple. 

[TuscanyTile2]

50 minutes ago, Ron Rico said:

Can you name any veteran coaches that Woody interviewed since 2000 (or the year he owned the team)?

Wow, I guess I can't think of any.  But it's still possible that theory can still hold up.  Maybe Woody reached out to the agents of veteran HCs but he was consistently told "not interested".