Clearly, The NY Jets have no clue of the who/how/why in drafting a QB

[Jet_Engine1]

The Jets have clearly demonstrated they have Zero clue in how to evaluate a QB, which one to take, or what the process should be. What I've learned watching the past 20 years of QB's the Jets have selected, they seem to fall into the same few thought processes.

• - The Jets fall in love with a Scouting Combine performance (or a Single throw, in Zach's Case): Magnificent throws made in shorts, based on a scripted set of passes in an isolated environment.
• -The Jets fall in love with a single game the player had. The Darnold effect. I fell into the same trap. I watched that Bowl Game vs. Pitt and said, "Whoa! This guy is GOOOD!". I then dismissed all evidence when he struggled, found other things to blame, and celebrated when he was picked. And found myself saying, "What happened to that kid from the Bowl Game?"
• - The Jets fall in love with a single season performance. Zach, Sanchez fall into this category. Darnold to a lesser extent. Despite other issues, prior or subsequent seasons, the Jets evaluate a player based on a single season. 

 

So, what's the point? As much as I am not a big fan, Parcells knew his Football far better than most. If you keep screwing something up, you HAVE TO re-evaluate your evaluation process. If you keep hiring Firefighters that can't get through probation, or become Negative Retention types, we would have to re-evaluate the hiring process. How? Look to other successful Departments. Ask what their hiring strategies and criteria are. If the process was book/test heavy and you get poorly performing employees, balance the process. If you're hiring Crossfit Brutes and Brute-ettes that are too stupid to understand SOP's and SOG'? Balance the process. How to apply this  kind of thinking to the Jets?

 

THE PARCELLS RULES FOR DRAFTING A QUARTERBACK. 

It is a simple pass/fail system.  Either you qualify for consideration, or you don't.  If you don't line up with this formula, you are a non-starter in Parcells's draft process. He won't consider you.  He really doesn't give a damn what the scouts think or say about you either.  If you qualify under the Tuna formula, Parcells will consider you.  If he likes the other things he sees, he will select you.

So what is this formula? Here is the original version: 

1. The candidate must be a senior.
2. The candidate must be a college graduate, and he must hold a 4 year degree.  Candidates with some graduate work will be preferred.
3. The candidate must have a B average or better in school.
4. The candidate must have been a 3 year starter in college.
5. The candidate must have made 30 starts in college.
6. The candidate must have 23 victories in college.
7. The candidate must impress us as a strong leadership figure
8. The candidate must be strongly recommended by his head coach.
9. The candidate cannot have a rap-sheet, or run-ins with the law.

This is the updated version:

• Be a three-year starter
• Be a senior in college
• Graduate from college
• Start 30 games
• Win 23 games
• Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
• Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

Is it the answer? No. But its a logical, measurable, attainable set of benchmarks for determining priorities and creating a non-chaotic, thoughtful approach to selecting a Quarterback to run (not ruin) your franchise.. 

Jets Drafted Quarterbacks that DID NOT meet the full criteria:

Mark Sanchez (2009): 2 of 7 Criteria met.

Sam Darnold (2018): 3 of 7 Criteria met.

Zach Wilson (2021): 4 of 7 Criteria met. 

Brooks Bollinger (2003): 3 of 7 Criteria met

Erik Ainge (2008): 3 of 7

Bryce Petty (2015): Barely 4 of 7 Criteria met.

Christian Hackenberg (2015): Just scraped in at 3 of 7. 

 

Recent (Current Century, lol) Jets QBs that Met the "Parcells Rules":

Pennington. Duh

Geno Smith. Yep. Checked every box.

 

OK. So, do the "Parcells Rules actually mean anything? Well, here are a few examples of players recently drafted ALL OVER the draft and where they stand:

Brock Purdy(2022): 7/7 "Mr. Irrelevant".

Kenny Pickett. 7/7 The Steelers are a very smart organization, who knows how Pickett pans out but he looks ok.

In 2020, both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts met all seven criteria.

Joe Burrow: 6/7. Was stuck behind JT Barrett and Haskins at OSU. Has everything else ticked.

Bryce Young: 5/7. Leaving after Junior year hurts his scoring, but statistically blows it away.

 

OK, so where's Mahomes? 2 year starter, left after Junior year. 5/7, bit statistically destroys the rest of the stat based portions, and holds 2 passing resords for NCAA DIV I FBS and won the Sammy Baugh Award. 

How about Tom Brady? 5th Year Senior. Stuck in a QB carousel at Michigan, platooning with Drew Henson. Shockingly only checks 3 of 7 criteria. Had he started one other season, he blows it away... BUT... he didn't. Does this invalidate the rule? No. He was a prospect with a mid-round grade. BUT the "Rules" don't gauge competitiveness and drive. He was clearly a lesser "PROSPECT" than many of the guys he cried about getting drafted before him, but hindsight is 20/20. Pennington was a better "prospect" in 2000.

 

So, are the "Parcells Rules" infallible? Of course not. Its a GUIDE. A framework. If a guy doesn't have the 30 starts or graduation boxes checked, does he have a 67% Completion percentage and 3:1 TD/INT ratio? Find the balance. Prioritize. But have a PHILOSOPHY FFS.

 

2024 Draft Prospects Yep, its time to go there.

Caleb Williams, USC: At the time of the 2024 Draft, Williams will have started 2.5 Seasons (Replaced Rattler in 2021 midway through). He SHATTERS every other statistical criteria and will miss on being a senior/graduating. based on the state of NCAA Football now as opposed to 1990 or whenever Parcells came up with this, Caleb Williams checks the statistical boxes and W/L as a Junior.

Drake Maye, North Carolina: Oh boy. 2 year starter. Will forgo his Senior Year and enter the draft. At the time of the 2024 Draft, he will most certainly meet the statistical requirements (W/L, Comp. %, TD:INT). Do his careers #'s outweigh the time benchmarks? Well, he will hold every UNC passing record, was the ACC Player of the Year (2022), First Team All-ACC, and will probably be in contention for some QB awards (He was 10th in the 2022 Heisman Vote). If he continues playing at a High Level this year, I BALANCE the criteria out as a yes. 

Shedeur Sanders, Col.: Will be drafted prior to his Senior year. 3 year starter (Jackson State/Colorado). Statistically dominant. Will meet the W/L record, Starts and all other criteria. 

 

There's a bunch of other guys in the draft... Bo Nix is an adult playing College Ball. 50 fraking starts, he's married, and played in the SEC and now at Oregon. Always a team Captain. Probably the most solid, dependable guy in the bunch. Michael Penix Jr. has a lot of skills, and fits the "Modern Offense" criteria with speed and elusiveness, but has a LONG injury history. Boom/Bust. The Jets? Nope. His ACL will explode just looking at the MetLife Field. You know it, I know it...

Quinn Ewers is Colt McCoy 2.0.

 

JJ McCarthy out of Michigan has talent... but here's the first few "weaknesses" listed on his scouting report: 

• While McCarthy flashes a strong for an arm, he battles inconsistencies with ball placement, often forcing his pass-catchers to adjust mid-route, inhibiting YAC potential.
• When airing it out, he struggles with touch and loft, rather than just relying on his arm strength. This sometimes gives DBs (defensive backs) a window to make a play on the ball.
• On tape, against TCU, he's shown a glaring deficiency in throws to the boundary on the right side, hinting at a potential mechanical flaw in his release or footwork.
• His dropbacks sometimes lack the crispness and rhythm, causing him to telegraph throws, especially on out routes, giving corners a jump on the ball.

NOPE. LOL.

Want to switch to an RPO, Jalen Hurts/Justin Fields type? Jayden Daniels, but the Offense will have to totally be overhauled to suit his strengths.

 

OK. I'm tired. Rant over. Doesn't matter. The Jets will never figure out the "Young Quarterback" route. Just build an amazing O-Line and Defense, and get a competent, Non-40 year old QB to run the team for 5-8 years. 

 

[Obrien2Toon]

I remember when this got Parcells Chad Henne 

[joewilly12]

I wanted Mahomes many critized.. just like DK Metcalf 

[jetstream23]

29 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

• The candidate must be a senior.
• The candidate must be a college graduate, and he must hold a 4 year degree.  Candidates with some graduate work will be preferred.

 

Almost all of the really good ones are not staying for a Senior year, risking injury in college, and potentially leaving millions of $$ on the table when their advisors are telling them they'll be taken early.

[jetstream23]

It's more about the scouting than anything else.  I posted a similar point in another thread stating that the tank doesn't work, and it factually hasn't for the Jets after taking Wilson at #2, Darnold at #3 and Sanchez at #5 while passing on Mahomes, Watson, and a ton of other guys who have become successful starting QBs.  Neither Super Bowl QB from last year was a Top 9 pick.  I could also argue that one of the Jets best QB draft picks in terms of production given where he was taken is Chad Pennington (#18).  It's as simple (and hard) as just taking the right guy.

Interestingly, I think Pennington would be almost the perfect QB for this team right now.

[Jet_Engine1]

10 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

I remember when this got Parcells Chad Henne 

I'm going to make you sad now. On purpose. In a theoretical world, where statistics are absolutes regardless of context, here is where Chad Hennes career numbers would place him on the Jets "All Time lists":

Yards: 13,290 Henne would be #5 on the Jets all time list, behind Joe, Kenny O, Todd, and Pennington.

Touchdowns: 60 Henne would be #7 All Time, behind the usual suspects. 

QB Rating: 76.1 Thats higher than Geno, Sanchez, Todd, Namath. Yep.

Yards Per Attempt:  6.6 Tied with Darnold, Higher than Boomer and Sanchez.

Completion Percentage: 59.6% Better than Vinny, Kenny O, Boomer, Sanchez, Todd.

 

Now, remember. Henne lasted in the league 15 years, more than Pennington or Sanchez. And he compiled those numbers with a majority of the second half of his career a backup QB. 

 

Take a moment....

 

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Almost all of the really good ones are not staying for a Senior year, risking injury in college, and potentially leaving millions of $$ on the table when their advisors are telling them they'll be taken early.

Which I addressed, had you read the post. Its cool though. I'm not mad.

[Jet_Engine1]

22 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

I wanted Mahomes many critized.. just like DK Metcalf 

I screamed to go YOLO and take Metcalf in the first round. Seriously. Right here. On this board. More than once. 

 

Whatever. lol

[Larz]

Disagree.  It’s how you develop them that matters 

look at the darnold draft. 

the consensus was some combination of ;

Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold/Allen/Jackson 

it’s such a blessing being drafted outside the top 10 in the draft  for a QB

 

[Jet_Engine1]

Meanwhile, Zach Wilson is measurably and statistically actually getting worse...

 

[Jet_Engine1]

1 minute ago, Larz said:

Disagree.  It’s how you develop them that matters 

look at the darnold draft. 

the consensus was some combination of ;

Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold/Allen/Jackson 

it’s such a blessing being drafted outside the top 10 in the draft  for a QB

 

You can't develop them if they're one of the following:  stupid, immature, lazy, don't care, just in it for the money, simply incompetent, and on and on. 

 

Chicken//Egg.

[C Mart]

Not sure who you want to blame considering different GM / Coaches for all these. 
 

Yes, Woody is the owner but we all know he isn’t picking the players. 

[jetstream23]

17 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Which I addressed, had you read the post. Its cool though. I'm not mad.

I read it.  There's nothing wrong with saying it again.

 

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Not sure who you want to blame considering different GM / Coaches for all these. 
 

Yes, Woody is the owner but we all know he isn’t picking the players. 

Why can the Steelers always find LB'ers and WR's, regardless of the era/staff? Team Philosophy. The Jets have none. There is no philosophy, no culture, no identity. There never has been since the Sack Exchange split up. 

 

Saleh thinks cliches and mottos are a philosophy. I mean, at least "Play Like A Jet" made sense.

 

"All gas, no brakes" is the dumbest thing I have ever heard as a rallying cry or organizational mantra. AGNB. AGNIB. WTF is AGNIB? Aside from Saleh, does anyone actually buy into that? Would you buy one of those shirts that says "AGNB" on it? I have NEVER seen a Jets fan or anyone other than the CS wear that. Its MEANINGLESS. Its MINDLESS.

 

This is why you need a COO or President of Football Operations to lead the ship. Estanlish an identity, a brand, a culture. Anything. SOmething that guides decisions. 

 

Do you think these idiots have ever done a SWOT analysis of the organization? Of course not. There is no Mission Statement. Its just Woody grabbing at the shiniest thing on the Christmas Tree, knocking it over in the process. Then all the kids start crying, Mom starts drinking, Dads in a mood again.. wait, what are we talking about?

[hungry jackson]

Bill Parcells was never the one to evalulate talented quarterbacks successfully,. 

[FactsOnly]

It’s not drafting them

it’s hiring inept, unqualified morons to mold them

[Jet_Engine1]

1 minute ago, hungry jackson said:

Bill Parcells was never the one to evalulate talented quarterbacks successfully,. 

His entire philosophy was efficient QB play that wouldn't destroy the teams chances. Thats why he was always screaming at Simms. 

If we had just "average" efficient QB play, the Jets are 2-1 right now, and would have gone to the playoffs most likely last year....

[Jet_Engine1]

2 minutes ago, FactsOnly said:

It’s not drafting them

it’s hiring inept, unqualified morons to mold them

Nah, bro.

 

Its BOTH.

 

#Facts

[doitny]

good post. thanks for posting it.

im just curious as to the percentages to put context to this.

like guys who are 7/7 become 5 years NFL starters 80% of the time....6/7 60% of the time and so on ...

other wise we really cant judge this formula. as the article say the good guys how many bad ones hit 7 out of 7? it just cherry picks a few good and bad ones.

[TuscanyTile2]

Obviously, the Jets know something that the people up here don't.

[Jet_Engine1]

4 minutes ago, doitny said:

good post. thanks for posting it.

im just curious as to the percentages to put context to this.

like guys who are 7/7 become 5 years NFL starters 80% of the time....6/7 60% of the time and so on ...

other wise we really cant judge this formula. as the article say the good guys how many bad ones hit 7 out of 7? it just cherry picks a few good and bad ones.

It's not an article... lol. I just sat at my computer and started looking at the college stats of random guys, same for all the Jets QB picks. 

 

But yeah, that's a data compilation I just don't feel like doing. It's just... implement a system. Guidlines. Parameters. ANYTHING beyond shiny object syndrome. 

[southparkcpa]

38 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

I'm going to make you sad now. On purpose. In a theoretical world, where statistics are absolutes regardless of context, here is where Chad Hennes career numbers would place him on the Jets "All Time lists":

Yards: 13,290 Henne would be #5 on the Jets all time list, behind Joe, Kenny O, Todd, and Pennington.

Touchdowns: 60 Henne would be #7 All Time, behind the usual suspects. 

QB Rating: 76.1 Thats higher than Geno, Sanchez, Todd, Namath. Yep.

Yards Per Attempt:  6.6 Tied with Darnold, Higher than Boomer and Sanchez.

Completion Percentage: 59.6% Better than Vinny, Kenny O, Boomer, Sanchez, Todd.

 

Now, remember. Henne lasted in the league 15 years, more than Pennington or Sanchez. And he compiled those numbers with a majority of the second half of his career a backup QB. 

 

Take a moment....

 

I read 2 books by Parcells. You read it and you hear HIS voice when you read. Strange. But I walked away with a tremendous respect for him. He talked about how they worked on Vinny T to stop "pumping" the ball before throwing and other things.  I believe that the criteria you speak about is solid and while not perfect is the basis for good selection.

[Jet_Engine1]

Hey @jetsons man the **** up and give an opinion. People that just downvote stuff and never offer an opinion or counter-argument are bitches. 

[Beerfish]

I loved the Darnold pick, he was never as good as I thought he'd be but no team since Houston and David Carr did a worse job of helping a Qb than the jets did with Darnold, it was a total disgrace.

[Jet_Engine1]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I loved the Darnold pick, he was never as good as I thought he'd be but no team since Houston and David Carr did a worse job of helping a Qb than the jets did with Darnold, it was a total disgrace.

Yep. And then they did THE EXACT SAME THING, but with inferior versions of Bowles and Darnold. I mean, what the ****!! 😆 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Interestingly, I think Pennington would be almost the perfect QB for this team right now.

 

[C Mart]

42 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Why can the Steelers always find LB'ers and WR's, regardless of the era/staff? Team Philosophy. The Jets have none. There is no philosophy, no culture, no identity. There never has been since the Sack Exchange split up. 

 

Saleh thinks cliches and mottos are a philosophy. I mean, at least "Play Like A Jet" made sense.

 

"All gas, no brakes" is the dumbest thing I have ever heard as a rallying cry or organizational mantra. AGNB. AGNIB. WTF is AGNIB? Aside from Saleh, does anyone actually buy into that? Would you buy one of those shirts that says "AGNB" on it? I have NEVER seen a Jets fan or anyone other than the CS wear that. Its MEANINGLESS. Its MINDLESS.

 

This is why you need a COO or President of Football Operations to lead the ship. Estanlish an identity, a brand, a culture. Anything. SOmething that guides decisions. 

 

Do you think these idiots have ever done a SWOT analysis of the organization? Of course not. There is no Mission Statement. Its just Woody grabbing at the shiniest thing on the Christmas Tree, knocking it over in the process. Then all the kids start crying, Mom starts drinking, Dads in a mood again.. wait, what are we talking about?

They have had 1 family own them, 3 HCs over the past 50+ yrs. Probably approx 5 GMs over that time, which I believe have been promoted from within….

 

[Mike135]

I think like 80% of Jet fans wanted to draft Zach as well.  

[Ron Rico]

Just now, Mike135 said:

I think like 80% of Jet fans wanted to draft Zach as well.  

[Jet_Engine1]

4 minutes ago, C Mart said:

They have had 1 family own them, 3 HCs over the past 50+ yrs. Probably approx 5 GMs over that time, which I believe have been promoted from within….

 

Yes. The answer then is for Woody to bring in a Football Professional to be President of Football Operations, and then pull a Hess and disa****inpear. 

 

Oh. No. I just had a bad thought. Woody is 76, not ancient but, well, you know. So, anyone thinks he does what Hess did and mandate the team is sold? Or is this goofy dweeb gonna ruin our children's lives? 😆 

 

[Ron Rico]

Tanner McKee was drafted 188 overall in the 6th round, four spots after JD took Zaire Barnes (another draft pick that gets no playing time).

[southparkcpa]

14 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

Yes. The answer then is for Woody to bring in a Football Professional to be President of Football Operations, and then pull a Hess and disa****inpear. 

 

Oh. No. I just had a bad thought. Woody is 76, not ancient but, well, you know. So, anyone thinks he does what Hess did and mandate the team is sold? Or is this goofy dweeb gonna ruin our children's lives? 😆 

 

Don’t laugh..this kid will be in charge.   We are fukked.  

[Barry McCockinner]

The QB's the Jets drafted in this analysis were with different GM's, scouting departments and coaching staffs. When you refer to "the Jets" I don't know what the common thread is unless you think Woody Johnson is telling the GM's who to draft.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Nice work. A few notes:

Statistical screens work very well in the NFL when evaluating prospects but tend to be more reliable at filtering our high risk candidates than as predictive for success. Think certain athletic metrics like the agility drills and jumping explosive drills for pass rusher, and something similar athletically for TEs. For qb, higher number of starts and years in school has been notated as correlating factors for nfl success for years. Completion percentage as well since qbs don’t typically make great strides in the NFL with larger data sets in this area. 

Keep in mind you are cherry picking results here. I’m not saying you are wrong as more rigorous analysis has been done on this by others, just wanting to help others to be rigorous in statistical understanding as methodology. actual studies are done include all results and the outliers. 

The main thing i want to point out is you’re proving out statistical correlation and not causation. X number of starts probably makes sense because underlying causes like giving players reps and exposure to different defenses and situations and practice with mechanics and coaching probably improve performance on players who largely get thrown into bad situations and are expected to succeed early. But other types of studies are done to prove causation. 

[Lith]

6 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

The QB's the Jets drafted in this analysis were with different GM's, scouting departments and coaching staffs. When you refer to "the Jets" I don't know what the common thread is unless you think Woody Johnson is telling the GM's who to draft.

The common thread has been defensive head coaches who don't know how to properly develop QBs and have not brought in the right people to do it.