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Looking ahead at remaining schedule


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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I find the idea that the Jets are an "clear favorite" over the Commanders to be an interesting thought.  Alot of games between now and then to provide a more accurate reading, but I'd expect that game to be much closer to even, with maybe a shift to the Jets for home field. 'Ders O is better than ours by quite a bit, with a better QB, better skill players at WR, worse at #1 RB but better at RB as a group (depends on Izzy), and a similarly average or maybe worse O-line.  'Ders Defense has been a huge disappointment so far, they were expected to be as good or even slightly better than ours.  I expect they'll improve, albeit who knows by how much.  I think the 'Ders will likely be a very tough game and end quite close.

I’m just wondering why its the “‘Ders” instead of the “Commies” …

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The actual schedule itself can be difficult. Saleh alluded to it in his press conference. There are several short weeks.

WEEK 9 · Mon 11/06 · 8:15 PM EST

Los Angeles Chargers

From Monday night, Then they fly to Vegas to play the Raiders on Sunday Night. So flying across the country on a short week.

WEEK 10 · Sun 11/12 · 8:20 PM EST

 

AT Las Vegas Raiders

Then they have to fly home from Vegas after a Sunday Night game and then they go to Buffalo.

WEEK 11 · Sun 11/19 · 4:25 PM EST

 

AT Buffalo Bills

Then they come home to play Miami on Black Friday

WEEK 12 · Fri 11/24 · 3:00 PM EST

Miami Dolphins

 

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One week at a time.  I'm not overlooking any opponent, and neither should the Jets.

When was the last time the Jets had a dominating victory from start to finish?  I honestly can't remember.  There is no better situation to start than coming off a bye against the reeling Giants.

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

Predicting the outcome of our games is gonna be tough, no matter who the opponent is.

Yep. We beat the Eagles. Didn’t expect that to be in our W column. Very unpredictable season. Also hard to predict, because, as you said, the offense is so anemic, we could end up losing games just because we have to walk a tight rope every offensive possession. O has to step up to make these wins more achievable. Just don’t think they’re capable of doing normal things like scoring 6 on consecutive drives.

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4 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Outside of the Giants and Pats(who we cant beat), there are a lot of good teams on our remaining schedule.

We are going to have to play some really good football to have a shot at the playoffs.

Remember when you were laughing at people for even mentioning the word "playoffs"?  Those were good times.

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There is no evidence that we are any better then any team left on our schedule other then the Giants.  And being an inter state rival game, records go out the window.

Every team on our schedule is looking at us as an easy win.

We need to play really good football the rest of the way.  Anything less and the losses are going to start piling up.

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39 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

One week at a time.  I'm not overlooking any opponent, and neither should the Jets.

When was the last time the Jets had a dominating victory from start to finish?  I honestly can't remember.  There is no better situation to start than coming off a bye against the reeling Giants.

Lots of false bravado coming off the eagles win and a bye could happen.  That Giant game is dangerous.  Losing that game would not surprise me at all.  We must be cautious!

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43 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Yep. We beat the Eagles. Didn’t expect that to be in our W column. Very unpredictable season. Also hard to predict, because, as you said, the offense is so anemic, we could end up losing games just because we have to walk a tight rope every offensive possession. O has to step up to make these wins more achievable. Just don’t think they’re capable of doing normal things like scoring 6 on consecutive drives.

This is what I am really hoping to see as the schedule softens a bit.  Eagles were as bad a matchup as we could have had with a banged up OL and no starting CBs, yet we found a way.  Next three are the Giants, Chargers and Raiders.  Lets score some points more consistently and maybe I will believe we can do something special. 

More of these 2 or 3 point 4th quarter games, and win or lose, I am not going to feel that great about our ability to get to 10 or 11 wins and a playoff berth.

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15 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

When was the last time the Jets were actual favorites in a game? 

We should have a couple coming up.

Giants game Jets will almost surely be favored. The Giants are a bottom 5 in most categories on both sides of the ball. Dead last in points scored.

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24 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

"The disease is alive and well." 

Reality isnt not the disease.  We have the worst starting qb in the nfl.  That is a fact.

When you are not getting anything from the qb position, there is not much room for error.  We were plus 4 in the turnover column and needed a miracle to win a game.

So instead of looking at our schedule and seeing 10 wins, be more realistic and realize that we will need to play our best to beat any of these teams.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, chirorob said:

If Rodgers isn't back, the Jets offense isn't scoring 9 points on the Browns

Though to be fair, if the defense figures rushing defense the Browns aren't doing anything either. Final score will look like a W-L record

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1 minute ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Reality isnt not the disease.  We have the worst starting qb in the nfl.  That is a fact.

When you are not getting anything from the qb position, there is not much room for error.  We were plus 4 in the turnover column and needed a miracle to win a game.

So instead of looking at our schedule and seeing 10 wins, be more realistic and realize that we will need to play our best to beat any of these teams.

 

 

We've lost the battle! Our only hope against the disease has been infected.

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1 hour ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

I’m just wondering why its the “‘Ders” instead of the “Commies” …

To be clear, no one here calls them the 'Ders other than me, lol.  I just think it's funny.

Everyone here tends to use the full "Commanders" name when chatting them up.  Almost no one I talk to, or hear on the radio, uses any form of short-hand for the name.

Part of why it's such a bad name.  Speculation here is the new Owner is very likely to change it in the near'ish future.  It's not a well liked name here.

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It would be absolutely incredible for MIA, BUF and NYJ to make the playoffs and leave the cheaters behind--especially if the Jets get there with ZW.

The path to the playoffs is surprisingly difficult here. The BUF/MIA are pretty much a lock to take the division and a wildcard spot. BUF is nowhere near as good as they were but I'm not holding hope that the team beats them twice. Splitting MIA would be huge but so unlikely.

The Jets have head-to-head games against several teams in the wildcard mix for the other two spots and that's tiebreaker number one. The Browns and Chargers have a good stake on wildcard spots. If the Jets lose both of those games and split with BUF, they are likely out. 

I'm enjoying the wins but not setting myself up for disappointment thinking the wildcard is probable. The Jets need a lot of wins with a team that struggles to score in the end zone. 

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The schedule is favorable, but I think it is more about our team than our opposition.  The defense needs to perform early like they do after the half.  The offense needs to learn to convert in the red zone.  If they do those two, we are a playoff team.

We beat the Bills and the Eagles with no red zone scores and a flat first half on defense.  We should have beat the Chiefs despite a flat first half on both sides of the ball.  Who on the schedule is anywhere near as scary as that three?

Don't tell me Miami.  Last year, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle barely totaled 200 yards combined over both matchups, and had no touchdowns between them.  Our corners showed they can stay with them.

If they solve the red zone issue on offense, our defense should make us hard to beat, regardless of the opponent.  I think we do and Zach continues to improve.  10-7 and a wildcard.

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23 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Reality isnt not the disease.  We have the worst starting qb in the nfl.  That is a fact.

When you are not getting anything from the qb position, there is not much room for error.  We were plus 4 in the turnover column and needed a miracle to win a game.

So instead of looking at our schedule and seeing 10 wins, be more realistic and realize that we will need to play our best to beat any of these teams.

 

 

“Isnt not”

Less than 0% chance you understood the joke I was making.

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2 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

The schedule is favorable, but I think it is more about our team than our opposition.  The defense needs to perform early like they do after the half.  The offense needs to learn to convert in the red zone.  If they do those two, we are a playoff team.

We beat the Bills and the Eagles with no red zone scores and a flat first half on defense.  We should have beat the Chiefs despite a flat first half on both sides of the ball.  Who on the schedule is anywhere near as scary as that three?

Don't tell me Miami.  Last year, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle barely totaled 200 yards combined over both matchups, and had no touchdowns between them.  Our corners showed they can stay with them.

If they solve the red zone issue on offense, our defense should make us hard to beat, regardless of the opponent.  I think we do and Zach continues to improve.  10-7 and a wildcard.

Last year we played Miami with the #2 and #3 QB.  It's a little different with Tua in there.

The tough part of Miami is they rush for 150 a game, they could legit hit the Jets for 200 yards rushing.

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10 minutes ago, Flashlite80 said:

Don't tell me Miami.  Last year, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle barely totaled 200 yards combined over both matchups, and had no touchdowns between them.  Our corners showed they can stay with them.

Last year vs. the Jets they were QB'd by their #3 guy, Skylar Thompson, a 7th rounder. 

He finished 2022 as the 83rd rated pass thrower in the NFL.

This year, the Phins are being QB'd by Tua. 

Tua is the NFL's #1 QB in almost every meaningful statistical category so far in 2023.

Now, if you think Tua is going to definitely go down with injury, that would move the needle.

If you think Tua and Skyler are irrelevant to how they'll plan our D.....I think that's a bit silly.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Which starting QB's would you grade out as worse?

Mac Jones, Pickett, Tannehill, Young are all worse for the full season in Total QBR. And all are very limited talent wise. Zach is better than all of those guys right now.  He's better than Daniel Jones. Tannehill is a shell of what he was. And Zach is ascending not static.

But to be honest, I look at it this way. Zach was never intended to start. The offense was designed specifically for Rodgers. Very static. Intended to be manipulated by Rodgers based on coverage.

It wasn't until the KC game that they had the offense in a reasonable spot for him. There are literally articles about how it took until the KC to revamp the offense for Zach

And he has played solid the last 3 games.

He is 

65/98 66.3% 2 TDs 1 INT 630 yards Rating 86.6

86.6 rating is around 20th and where Stafford, Hurts, Garappolo are.

Over the last 3 games in Total QBR he is 19th, 22nd and 13th and that is playing KC and Phi with Denver (who got back 3 defensive players)

In all 3 of those games he outplayed the other QB

Zach went into the KC game in a do or die situation and he played very well. Had he tanked Sieimian would be our QB right now.

Now I am not saying he is playing elite or very good even. He is playing sort of near the bottom of average (which is better than a backup)

And bottom of average is definitely not the worst QB in the NFL. And bottom of average with good ball protection is solid.

Was he the worst QB in the NFL last year? Maybe

But he is far from that this year.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Last year vs. the Jets they were QB'd by their #3 guy, Skylar Thompson, a 7th rounder. 

He finished 2022 as the 83rd rated pass thrower in the NFL.

This year, the Phins are being QB'd by Tua. 

Tua is the NFL's #1 QB in almost every meaningful statistical category so far in 2023.

Now, if you think Tua is going to definitely go down with injury, that would move the needle.

If you think Tua and Skyler are irrelevant to how they'll plan our D.....I think that's a bit silly.

It will be interesting to see but I think the Jets speciality is clamping down on finesse WRs and QBs. And the Dolphins are the ultimate finesse team. When Buffalo smacked them in the mouth, they folded. I like our defense over their offense.

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7 hours ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

  I think we’ll need to get to 10 wins to be confident of a playoff spot in the AFC (side note: There were a lot of inter-conference games this weekend and, other than the Chargers last night, pretty much every AFC wildcard contender won this weekend — Browns, Bengals, Bills wins against NFC teams particularly hurt us).

We have 3 wins to date, so probably need 7 more to make the playoffs.

As things stand right now, I think we’d be favored against 6 teams:

Giants

Raiders

Falcons

Texans

Commanders

Patriots

I feel like all those games are very winnable but, that said, realistically I’d guess we loose at least one of those.

Which means we have to win 2 of the following 5:

Chargers (home)

Bills (away)

Browns (away)

Dolphins (home)

Dolphins (away)

Chargers home is the most likely of those, imo — and will be crucial to our chances. Win that and we need 1 win in out of the other 4 games, and I’d say any of those are possible, but none are probable. But, overall, I’d say it’s likely we pick off at least one of those games, so if we handle our business in at least 5 of the “easier” games, we would get to 10.

Now watch — it’ll probably play out nothing like that. But that’s my best guess as to how it might unfold in a best case scenario.

We have 6 teams in the 21-30 range of the power rankings on our remaining schedule along with the Texans at 17.  We could grab 5-6 of those games, putting us in position for a wild card.

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

To be clear, no one here calls them the 'Ders other than me, lol.  I just think it's funny.

Everyone here tends to use the full "Commanders" name when chatting them up.  Almost no one I talk to, or hear on the radio, uses any form of short-hand for the name.

Part of why it's such a bad name.  Speculation here is the new Owner is very likely to change it in the near'ish future.  It's not a well liked name here.

Cummin Deers 

girl woman GIF

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Last year vs. the Jets they were QB'd by their #3 guy, Skylar Thompson, a 7th rounder. 

He finished 2022 as the 83rd rated pass thrower in the NFL.

This year, the Phins are being QB'd by Tua. 

Tua is the NFL's #1 QB in almost every meaningful statistical category so far in 2023.

Now, if you think Tua is going to definitely go down with injury, that would move the needle.

If you think Tua and Skyler are irrelevant to how they'll plan our D.....I think that's a bit silly.

Miami’s offense is scary good. 
 

My two big hesitations with them:

1) They got destroyed by the one elite team they played (Bills). Their wins (while I impressive) are against Carolina, Denver, NYG, and LAC. I’m very curious to see how they do in Philly this week. 
 

2) if they make the playoffs (extremely likely), their defense will probably be the weakest among fellow AFC playoff teams. Hard to beat all of these stud QBs on your way to a SB with a questionable defense. 

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