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Alijah Vera-Tucker, Opinions and Concerns?


Warfish

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Borderline elite offensive linemen. Health is an obvious concern. Is he just getting unlucky like we saw with Keenan Allen in his first few seasons or is this guys body letting him down? We’ve seen enough good with this kid to include him in next years plan but I think we are 1 bad injury away from having to assume that this guys body won’t let him reach his full potential.

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Just now, dbatesman said:

What is this based on, exactly?

My own memory of watching the games, and reading the opinions of others in the game threads.

If there is a more scientific metric out there that says he was great while everyone else sucked, I'd be all ears to read it.  That's sorta the point of the thread, to get more info on what people think, including if data is there to support him still being as good as he was as a rookie.

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Jets should re-sign McGovern as a safety net for AVT. I'm assuming they'll have at least 1 new tackle added this off season (maybe 2) and they can kick AVT back into guard where they seem to want him in the ideal situation. 

He's not a sure thing because he can't stay healthy. A shame that him and Becton can't stay on the field. An offensive line built around AVT, Becton, and Tippman actually has potential.

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

My own memory of watching the games, and reading the opinions of others in the game threads.

If there is a more scientific metric out there that says he was great while everyone else sucked, I'd be all ears to read it.  That's sorta the point of the thread, to get more info on what people think, including if data is there to support him still being as good as he was as a rookie.

Not sure id use that as a measuring stick if someone is good or not lol. 

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5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

My own memory of watching the games, and reading the opinions of others in the game threads.

If there is a more scientific metric out there that says he was great while everyone else sucked, I'd be all ears to read it.  That's sorta the point of the thread, to get more info on what people think, including if data is there to support him still being as good as he was as a rookie.

Well, the jets were so happy with him at tackle that Saleh was talking about making RT his permanent position 

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Throughout our forum, I continue to hear folks describe Alijah Vera-Tucker in very positive language, with some penciling him in as a sure-thing 2024 starter, long-term starter, or even potential HOF'er (admittedly, it's usually homers on that last one).

This raises several questions IMO:

1. AVT has missed 22 games in his first three years as of end of 2023.  He played in 28, including both games he was hurt in. 

That's a maximum of 56% availability rate his first three seasons overall.

2. His play in 2023 was not excellent.  He was as much a part of the problem early on as any of the other O-linemen.  The weak JD O-line around him clearly didn't help him.

3. As a 1st rounder, the Jets will have to decide on his future sometime soon in terms of the 5th year option or not.

While beggers cannot be choosers when it comes to the O-line, and AVT was in fact excellent in his rookie campaign three years ago, the trajectory of both his durability and his on-field play has declined to-date.

So I wanted to ask the forum why we think he's still a sure-thing (if you do), why you still believe in him when most of us do not in Becton anymore (similar but worse availability rate due to repeat injury), and if you still have confidence in him as a top-tier O-lineman we want to use the 5th year options on, and going forward, the kind of guy we will want to extend for big $$ at his position.

The floor is open, what say you on AVT's future here?  Future stud?  Future Becton II, Electric Boogaloo?  Or something in between?

IMO there's a bit of over-analysis here. The guy had two bad season ending injuries playing out of position. He's been in the league 3 seasons. So yes, he's missed a ton of time. But I wouldn't nec. characterize him as being constantly hurt. He got hurt twice. Bad. Its not like every other week there is something keeping him out of the game. 

In 2023 he was not excellent. But are you listening to yourself. Nobody was excellent. You said so yourself. lol. He was still a solid starter. Being shuffled around to T with players around him moving in and out of the lineup and Zach holding on to the ball way too long. 

You keep your best players. AVT is our best o-lineman and an excellent G. Is he truly injury prone? Will these two bad injuries affect his play? I think its too early to tell and I don't think its something you can assume either way. The Jets need him back. The Jets should bring him back long term when the time comes.  

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26 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Throughout our forum, I continue to hear folks describe Alijah Vera-Tucker in very positive language, with some penciling him in as a sure-thing 2024 starter, long-term starter, or even potential HOF'er (admittedly, it's usually homers on that last one).

This raises several questions IMO:

1. AVT has missed 22 games in his first three years as of end of 2023.  He played in 28, including both games he was hurt in. 

That's a maximum of 56% availability rate his first three seasons overall.

2. His play in 2023 was not excellent.  He was as much a part of the problem early on as any of the other O-linemen.  The weak JD O-line around him clearly didn't help him.

3. As a 1st rounder, the Jets will have to decide on his future sometime soon in terms of the 5th year option or not.

While beggers cannot be choosers when it comes to the O-line, and AVT was in fact excellent in his rookie campaign three years ago, the trajectory of both his durability and his on-field play has declined to-date.

So I wanted to ask the forum why we think he's still a sure-thing (if you do), why you still believe in him when most of us do not in Becton anymore (similar but worse availability rate due to repeat injury), and if you still have confidence in him as a top-tier O-lineman we want to use the 5th year options on, and going forward, the kind of guy we will want to extend for big $$ at his position.

The floor is open, what say you on AVT's future here?  Future stud?  Future Becton II, Electric Boogaloo?  Or something in between?

Great skill set. Durability be damned!! 

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Any player no matter now skilled is not a player when not on the field.

The entire offensive line needs to be rebuilt starting with only top notch players in FA that have NO history of injury and are on the right side of 30.  Then, on to the draft.  Round 1 take the best OT available and then double dip on O-Line for interior lineman. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Throughout our forum, I continue to hear folks describe Alijah Vera-Tucker in very positive language, with some penciling him in as a sure-thing 2024 starter, long-term starter, or even potential HOF'er (admittedly, it's usually homers on that last one).

This raises several questions IMO:

1. AVT has missed 22 games in his first three years as of end of 2023.  He played in 28, including both games he was hurt in. 

That's a maximum of 56% availability rate his first three seasons overall.

2. His play in 2023 was not excellent.  He was as much a part of the problem early on as any of the other O-linemen.  The weak JD O-line around him clearly didn't help him.

3. As a 1st rounder, the Jets will have to decide on his future sometime soon in terms of the 5th year option or not.

While beggers cannot be choosers when it comes to the O-line, and AVT was in fact excellent in his rookie campaign three years ago, the trajectory of both his durability and his on-field play has declined to-date.

So I wanted to ask the forum why we think he's still a sure-thing (if you do), why you still believe in him when most of us do not in Becton anymore (similar but worse availability rate due to repeat injury), and if you still have confidence in him as a top-tier O-lineman we want to use the 5th year options on, and going forward, the kind of guy we will want to extend for big $$ at his position.

The floor is open, what say you on AVT's future here?  Future stud?  Future Becton II, Electric Boogaloo?  Or something in between?

His 5th year option projection from OTC is $16MM. They probably exercise that based on potential when he's healthy, plus they sure don't need another OL hole when only one of them even appears to be slam-dunk long term thus far, and that's grading Tippmann on a rookie curve. I don't see how they can extend him further until they see him make it through at least 15 games in another season. They can always still offer him an extension midway through his 5th yr option season. 

It'd be less to extend him early, if he remains healthy, rather than offering an extension a year or two later, but given his injury history I think they have to let that happen. In theory they should be drafting a few more OLmen over the coming two drafts anyway, so they'll be on cheaper rookie deals when AVT's bigger hits come up. 

So let it play out through the 5th year. He hasn't had a history of showing up out of shape, and certainly no attitude issues even with them hopping him around to 4 different OL positions from '22-23, so I think that makes him more deserving of a 5th yr option gamble than Becton was, but admittedly it's not hard to convince me to let just 2024 play out after missing most of the season twice in a row, and hope to bang out an extension 10-15 months from now.

Even if exercising the 5th year option is a bad move, tbh this team's just going to use that $16MM savings on the next iterations of Uzomah and Cook with the $ cleared anyhow, they're not likely going to draft someone more talented, and if they did they still need to swap out Tomlinson anyhow. 

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11 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

One thing of note, AVT has missed so much time his 5th year option may end up being the lowest of all the 3 levels.

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

I'm fully prepared to accept Jason's estimates as gospel - or close enough to it - so $16MM is the lowest tier. That amount still makes it a risk. 

Remember this the next time someone touts the no-brainer of taking (let alone trading up for) a interior offensive lineman in round 1. At center it's like the 5th year option doesn't even exist, and at guard it only exists if the player's shown probowl performance (when available). 

If they had 3 other slots locked in, I'd probably say pass on it & see how it goes, but with the only ones locked in for a 2-3 more years being Tippmann, Mitchell, and Warren? They probably need to gamble on AVT panning out. 

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10 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

Any player no matter now skilled is not a player when not on the field.

The entire offensive line needs to be rebuilt starting with only top notch players in FA that have NO history of injury and are on the right side of 30.  Then, on to the draft.  Round 1 take the best OT available and then double dip on O-Line for interior lineman. 

I don't think AVT had an injury history in college so you never know. Injuries happen especially to O lineman. Look around the league. It's a MASH unit. AVT should absolutely be part of the plan and keep him at RG. 

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26 minutes ago, JiF said:

The Jets need to operate on offense like they have absolutely nothing because they need everything, especially OL.  So w/ that said, no, you cant count and shouldnt count on AVT next season.  The entire OL needs to be rebuilt and upgraded. 

The Jets have 8 pieces to the offense starting in 2024. Possibly 7 if they move on from Tomlinson.

Center - Tippman

Guards - AVT and Tomlinson

TE - Conklin/Ruckert

WR - G Wilson

RB - Hall

QB - Rodgers

They need the two most important pieces on the o-line. Both Tackle spots and 2 - WR's. They need a huge upgrade at WR 2. They also need a competent Back up QB.

Lot to do in the off season on offense.

This is why you don't draft a position that is already loaded. They needed a WR or OT in the '23 draft. I wanted the WR others wanted a Tackle. Either side of the conversation would have been correct, but knowing the state of affairs now. Tackle was the right call.

 

 

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1 hour ago, chirorob said:

I probably exercise the 5th year option.   That being said, I make him a guard, and leave him there for the rest of his career, however long that is.

That was another Joe D move I did not like at the time.   Not drafting AVT, that was fine, I liked the idea of going O Line.  However, giving up 2 third round draft picks to move up to get a guard (not a historically premium position) was overkill.   If anyone told me before any draft we were spend 3 of the first 4 picks in a draft to take care of one guard position, I would call that person an idiot, but here we are.

he's clearly been a disappointment if you look at what we gave up for him.

give him a year to play guard and let's see if he makes it the entire year.

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