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Luck? Or Good?


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7 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

identification is every bit as important if not more than developing them.

Agree with your whole post but this part stuck out to me......The Jets have a bigger problem identifying QBs and having someone in place that can properly evaluate the position, then they do a "development" problem. 

I wholeheartedly agree we have a development problem....but our evaluation is worse because we always end up picking the wrong guy(evidenced by the fact that our picks haven't gone on to do anything noteworthy after leaving here. Geno 9 years after the fact is a complete outlier)  

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Just now, LIJetsFan said:

What we really ought to do is interview Geno Smith (if he would) and ask him how he turned things around and what might have gotten him there earlier.  The point is we don't know what we don't know.     

I would just go out and find a guy who has learned from someone who has been successful and can articulate what they saw or learned, and if we believe them, get them

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

The Jets have a gm who can't scout qb or ol 

It's like having a pilot that can't tell the ground from the sky 

And even worse, he hired a HC, who hired an OC, who can't scout a QB or OL. I am ok with the GM not being the evaluator, but you damn well better bring in someone who can evaluate, or your plan is doomed from day 1

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Look no further than the 49rs for an inexplicable example of the mess that is finding and developing a QB. They spent a ton of draft capital to get the #3 pick and used it on Trey Lance. They initially sat him to ease him into being a starting QB. He was not good. They used the last pick in the draft on Brock Purdy and he is very good.  And while people give the 49rs kudos for knowing when to walk away from Trey Lance, would they have done so if they had not lucked into Purdy?

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10 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

What we really ought to do is interview Geno Smith (if he would) and ask him how he turned things around and what might have gotten him there earlier.  The point is we don't know what we don't know.     

Geno went from missing meetings, losing playbooks , and getting punched in the face to being a pretty good NFL QB four teams later. I’d say it’s obvious what helped him turn it around. 

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6 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

Maybe Shanahan doesnt know what hes doing? And just has a monster roster that with some luck, is working?

Thats always a good question...how much does coaching matter?  Belichick is a legend...when he had brady...hes human when he is coaching the browns and mac jones....Joe Torre was 894-1,003...then managed the spend happy yankees and went 1173-767 and won 4 world titles and 6 pennants...Sometimes its who you got and thats it.

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6 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Look no further than the 49rs for an inexplicable example of the mess that is finding and developing a QB. They spent a ton of draft capital to get the #3 pick and used it on Trey Lance. They initially sat him to ease him into being a starting QB. He was not good. They used the last pick in the draft on Brock Purdy and he is very good.  And while people give the 49rs kudos for knowing when to walk away from Trey Lance, would they have done so if they had not lucked into Purdy?

The main point here is that the 49ers keep drafting qbs while the jets stubbornly take one and then refuse to believe he’s a bust until this one guy has destroyed an entire regime of gm/hc on down.  Now the jets gm is once again with his back to the wall, a failed high qb draft pick and no backup qb to an old and injury prone qb who is well past his prime and not able to carry a team.  And they’re short on draft pick capital.  They didn’t trade for dobbs when they had the chance so you would like to think the gm has a better plan to fix the qb position.  Not holding my breath

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

The main point here is that the 49ers keep drafting qbs while the jets stubbornly take one and then refuse to believe he’s a bust until this one guy has destroyed an entire regime of gm/hc on down.  Now the jets gm is once again with his back to the wall, a failed high qb draft pick and no backup qb to an old and injury prone qb who is well past his prime and not able to carry a team.  And they’re short on draft pick capital.  They didn’t trade for dobbs when they had the chance so you would like to think the gm has a better plan to fix the qb position.  Not holding my breath

Makes me wonder if we hired someone more suited to a head of scouting job than a GM job.

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2 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Makes me wonder if we hired someone more suited to a head of scouting job than a GM job.

This team needs 2 more qbs, a veteran and a rookie.  But i doubt they draft one this year b/c they’re all in win now or be gone mode.  Unless they turn their first rounder into multiple picks i think we’re looking at a boring OL in round 1, defensive reinforcements in rounds 3 and 4 and sign a crappy veteran qb and then if rodgers gets injured they’re all gone and back to the beginning of the cycle of crap

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The jets keep pairing new HCs with new OCs with rookie QBs.  The jets are considered a third rate franchise so the GMs and HCs they hire are 2nd tier. 
 

free agents come here to collect checks with little pressure to win 

great situation for a rookie QB lol 

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40 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

So much of our fan base seems to think getting a QB requires luck.

Sure, you can get lucky and luck into a QB, like you can luck into getting rich by winning the lottery.

Or, you can actually bring people in who know what they are doing.

Andy Reid, seemed to learn really well from Walsh, always seems to get it right. 

Dabol, took a guy in Allen who many of the experts on this very board said had zero chance of being good, and turned him into a top 5 QB. Took hot garbage in Daniel Jones and got something out of him, took an undrafted FA in Devito and is getting something out of him.

Luck is not a strategy, until we get someone in who knows what they are doing with the QB, we will continue to be unlucky.

And before anyone turns this into a stupid "nobody is turning ZW into a good QB" thread, identification is every bit as important if not more than developing them. You end up drafting ZW when you don't have anyone in house who knows what they are doing

A young QB needs a few things if he is going to a really bad team.

1) OL - usually a mess, which is why I would like my rookie QB to sit his first year and while the OL is being built.

2) Weaponz - yeah we heard it hear many times that the QB should raise the talent of his WR's most don't. The game is still faster than they have ever seen and most can't make head or tails out of what a defense is showing.

3) Good QB coach and OC. - Needless to say. Hackett is brutal, Gase was awful, LaFleur  Yuck, The last good OC we had was Chan Gailey.

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23 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

What we really ought to do is interview Geno Smith (if he would) and ask him how he turned things around and what might have gotten him there earlier.  The point is we don't know what we don't know.     

Geno was an immature kid who wasn’t ready to be a pro when we drafted him. Him bouncing around as a back up and getting humbled was a big deal. On draft night, I remember going from wanting us to draft him to not just based on his reaction to falling in the draft.

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25 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

The more I see, the more I believe that Saleh's weakness on the O side of the ball are just too glaring for him to ever succeed as a HC. He is not Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin or Billicheat, who have their fingerprints all over the roster and how the team operates on both sides of the ball. Heck, even Rex knew what he wanted his offense to look like. sh*t, even Antonio Peirce gave his OC marching orders - Jacobs gets at least 20 touches and throw the ball to Adams as often as possible. Do we think Saleh has said anything to the OC about what he wants? And Saleh expects Rodgers to bail his ass out. Just go back and listen to how Saleh talks about the D after game. His responses are detailed and knowledgeable. Compare that to he post game comments about the O, which 90% of the time was "We're really close". Seriously? We've never been farther away. I am done with Robert Saleh.

100%

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The very first thing you need to do in todays NFL is to build your team first then add a QB.

It's far better to add the 4th best QB in a draft to a built team than to get the #1 guy and have nothing around him.

In the past it was get the QB while you have a high pick and then build around him.   But you can no longer draft a guy and watch him suck for three years or more, the league does not work that way any longer.  It is especially important to build a good oline before drafting a QB.

And yet teams continue to fall for the same trap.   Guys like David Carr, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young all have gone to dreadful teams with bad olines and no weapons and of course they totally fail.

Guys like Hurts, Mahomes, Dak Prescott went to teams near built.   As a young QB you at least have a chance in that case.

 

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9 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The very first thing you need to do in todays NFL is to build your team first then add a QB.

It's far better to add the 4th best QB in a draft to a built team than to get the #1 guy and have nothing around him.

In the past it was get the QB while you have a high pick and then build around him.   But you can no longer draft a guy and watch him suck for three years or more, the league does not work that way any longer.  It is especially important to build a good oline before drafting a QB.

And yet teams continue to fall for the same trap.   Guys like David Carr, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young all have gone to dreadful teams with bad olines and no weapons and of course they totally fail.

Guys like Hurts, Mahomes, Dak Prescott went to teams near built.   As a young QB you at least have a chance in that case.

 

If you’re good you’ll see it immediately.  

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2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

The more I see, the more I believe that Saleh's weakness on the O side of the ball are just too glaring for him to ever succeed as a HC. He is not Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin or Billicheat, who have their fingerprints all over the roster and how the team operates on both sides of the ball. Heck, even Rex knew what he wanted his offense to look like. sh*t, even Antonio Peirce gave his OC marching orders - Jacobs gets at least 20 touches and throw the ball to Adams as often as possible. Do we think Saleh has said anything to the OC about what he wants? And Saleh expects Rodgers to bail his ass out. Just go back and listen to how Saleh talks about the D after game. His responses are detailed and knowledgeable. Compare that to he post game comments about the O, which 90% of the time was "We're really close". Seriously? We've never been farther away. I am done with Robert Saleh.

Right.  Saleh knows nothing about the offense.

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20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The very first thing you need to do in todays NFL is to build your team first then add a QB.

It's far better to add the 4th best QB in a draft to a built team than to get the #1 guy and have nothing around him.

In the past it was get the QB while you have a high pick and then build around him.   But you can no longer draft a guy and watch him suck for three years or more, the league does not work that way any longer.  It is especially important to build a good oline before drafting a QB.

And yet teams continue to fall for the same trap.   Guys like David Carr, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young all have gone to dreadful teams with bad olines and no weapons and of course they totally fail.

Guys like Hurts, Mahomes, Dak Prescott went to teams near built.   As a young QB you at least have a chance in that case.

 

Yes and I think that’s why Zach has looked so bad.  It could also be a reason why Mahomes has been so successful. And another thing to consider is on field leadership.  The qb is usually the guy on offense but Zach just wasn’t ready.  I can’t imagine any player taking any constructive criticism from Zach.  QBs need to be the toughest guy out there.

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24 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

If you’re good you’ll see it immediately.  

Guys like Brees, manning, aikman all fell flat on their asses to start their careers.   Back in those days you were allowed to fall on your ass for several years.  Not any more.  

Mahomes sat for a full year on a built team, Hurts as well, Dak came to a team with the best oline in the game.

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5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Guys like Brees, manning, aikman all fell flat on their asses to start their careers.   Back in those days you were allowed to fall on your ass for several years.  Not any more.  

Mahomes sat for a full year on a built team, Hurts as well, Dak came to a team with the best oline in the game.

But you knew they were good.  With wilson he’s going to suck everywhere and no matter what the OL is.

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All this view does is shift the problem from "It's hard to find a good/great QB" to "it's hard to find the right coaches", which then gets shifted further to "It's hard to find the 'right people' to run your front office". 

Same exact problem, just blame-shifted off players onto coaching, then onto management.  

And several folks here go a step further and blame-shift to Ownership too.

So we're back to "nothing will change unless the Owner changes".  And the Owner isn't changing.

If all you want is a wailing wall, I guess this is as good as any.  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

But you knew they were good.  With wilson he’s going to suck everywhere and no matter what the OL is.

Eh? No you did not know they were good until they became good.

And this conversation has almost zero to do with Zach Wilson.   Wilson is bad, a lot of teams thought he was going to be good, not just the dumb jets.

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2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

The more I see, the more I believe that Saleh's weakness on the O side of the ball are just too glaring for him to ever succeed as a HC. He is not Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin or Billicheat, who have their fingerprints all over the roster and how the team operates on both sides of the ball. Heck, even Rex knew what he wanted his offense to look like. sh*t, even Antonio Peirce gave his OC marching orders - Jacobs gets at least 20 touches and throw the ball to Adams as often as possible. Do we think Saleh has said anything to the OC about what he wants? And Saleh expects Rodgers to bail his ass out. Just go back and listen to how Saleh talks about the D after game. His responses are detailed and knowledgeable. Compare that to he post game comments about the O, which 90% of the time was "We're really close". Seriously? We've never been farther away. I am done with Robert Saleh.

Thank you. This is it in a nutshell.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

All this view does is shift the problem from "It's hard to find a good/great QB" to "it's hard to find the right coaches", which then gets shifted further to "It's hard to find the 'right people' to run your front office". 

Same exact problem, just blame-shifted off players onto coaching, then onto management.  

And several folks here go a step further and blame-shift to Ownership too.

So we're back to "nothing will change unless the Owner changes".  And the Owner isn't changing.

If all you want is a wailing wall, I guess this is as good as any.  

 

 

The owner can certainly hire someone with a pedigree of identifying and developing a QB, no reason he cant. Does not mean it will work, but it will have a better chance of working than the route they have gone the last several HC/OC combos. I would not let this current regime identify nor develop a QB, not sure why anyone would think they have any prayer of getting it right this time around

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