Odds of QB in Rd. 1

[PepPep]

If Caleb or Maye are there for the Jets I don't think they can pass up on one of them. 

So I ask the math geeks, what are the odds of the Jets getting a shot to draft one of these guys? 

The Cards could still win a game b/c they play the Bears. 

Pats can still beat the Jets and maybe even Denver. 

Commanders still face the Jets.

The way I see it, if we lose out and things fall our way, we could be sitting at #3 overall with the Bears and ARI selecting ahead of us. And there is a good chance one of those teams will not pass on Harrison. 

 

Go Pats?

 

[Barry McCockinner]

Analysis

1. Probability of QB Availability:

   • If 30% of the top 10 picks are QBs, and there are 3 top QB prospects, there's a high chance (almost certain) that at least one QB will be available when the Jets pick.

2. Team Need Priority:

   • Given the Jets' primary need for a QB, the probability they will select a QB if one is available can be assumed to be high, let's say 80%.

3. Overall Probability Calculation:

   • The overall probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round would be a product of the probability of a QB being available and the probability of the Jets choosing a QB. Assuming independence of these events, the combined probability is: (Selecting QB)=(QB Available)×(Jets Choose QB)P(Selecting QB)=P(QB Available)×P(Jets Choose QB) (Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8P(Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8 (Selecting QB)=0.8P(Selecting QB)=0.8
   • So, there's an 80% chance the Jets will select a QB in the first round of the 2024 draft, based on these assumptions.

The probability of each of the top 10 picks being a QB (30% per pick).

• The cumulative probability of a QB being available when the Jets pick.
• The final probability of the Jets selecting a QB.

This chart to illustrates the analysis.

The chart visually represents the probability analysis of the New York Jets selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. It shows the cumulative probability of a quarterback being available with each top 10 draft pick (in sky blue). The red line indicates the assumed 80% probability of the Jets choosing a quarterback if one is available.

As the draft pick number increases, the cumulative probability of a QB being available also increases, reaching nearly 100% by the 10th pick. This high availability, combined with the 80% probability of the Jets opting for a QB, supports the overall 80% probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round.

[Larz]

[Joe W. Namath]

Jets will have the 2nd pick in the draft and take drake maye.

[dbatesman]

[Wit]

2 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Jets will have the 2nd pick in the draft and take drake maye.

I really dont think so. I think its Alt, Harrison, trade out. 

[PepPep]

4 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Analysis

1. Probability of QB Availability:

   • If 30% of the top 10 picks are QBs, and there are 3 top QB prospects, there's a high chance (almost certain) that at least one QB will be available when the Jets pick.

2. Team Need Priority:

   • Given the Jets' primary need for a QB, the probability they will select a QB if one is available can be assumed to be high, let's say 80%.

3. Overall Probability Calculation:

   • The overall probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round would be a product of the probability of a QB being available and the probability of the Jets choosing a QB. Assuming independence of these events, the combined probability is: (Selecting QB)=(QB Available)×(Jets Choose QB)P(Selecting QB)=P(QB Available)×P(Jets Choose QB) (Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8P(Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8 (Selecting QB)=0.8P(Selecting QB)=0.8
   • So, there's an 80% chance the Jets will select a QB in the first round of the 2024 draft, based on these assumptions.

The probability of each of the top 10 picks being a QB (30% per pick).

• The cumulative probability of a QB being available when the Jets pick.
• The final probability of the Jets selecting a QB.

Let's create this chart to illustrate the analysis.

The chart visually represents the probability analysis of the New York Jets selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. It shows the cumulative probability of a quarterback being available with each top 10 draft pick (in sky blue). The red line indicates the assumed 80% probability of the Jets choosing a quarterback if one is available.

As the draft pick number increases, the cumulative probability of a QB being available also increases, reaching nearly 100% by the 10th pick. This high availability, combined with the 80% probability of the Jets opting for a QB, supports the overall 80% probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round.

This is     fantastic. Where did this come from? 

What this doesn't seem to take into account is #1 that there are two not three top QB prospects and #2 the need for QB of other teams. For example, if the Bears and Pats end up selecting #1 and #2, I think there's a very good chance both QBs will be gone. That's how its stacking up right now. If that is the case come draft day, even if the Jets have the #3 overall pick, there is no way they take a QB. Not with Harrison, Alt and Fashanu on the board.  

[PepPep]

8 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Jets will have the 2nd pick in the draft and take drake maye.

This would be fantastic. He is the best QB in this draft IMO and truly looks like the real deal. 

[GreenFish]

I think it’s low. Or that’s based on my bias since I dont really think these QBs are anything to write home about.

The Jets have 4 main needs that have to be addressed: LT, WR, veteran QB, rookie QB.

My first thought was WR in round 1. But I dont see how LT gets addressed in Free Agency. There’s nobody available. Addressing WR in FA looks like the more realistic path. That means they will go into the draft with a glaring hole at LT.

70% chance LT (Alt or Fashanu)

25% chance it’s Harrison Jr

5% chance of Maye

[Bronx]

Penn State Jets' GM Joe "Bubba" Douglas (above), likes the odds of landing another young looking one in the upcoming draft.

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, PepPep said:

This is     fantastic. Where did this come from? 

What this doesn't seem to take into account is #1 that there are two not three top QB prospects and #2 the need for QB of other teams. For example, if the Bears and Pats end up selecting #1 and #2, I think there's a very good chance both QBs will be gone. That's how its stacking up right now. If that is the case come draft day, even if the Jets have the #3 overall pick, there is no way they take a QB. Not with Harrison, Alt and Fashanu on the board.  

you think my math is off?

[FTL Jet Fan]

36 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Jets will have the 2nd pick in the draft and take drake maye.

Well we know how this will play out. 

 

Damn it JW.

[SickJetFan]

if they pass on superstar QB they not only have to think about keeping their jobs with JETS but they will also need to worry about ever getting another gig in NFL and always being the fools who passed on.....

so good luck JD and Saleh navigating that minefield

[Saul Goodman]

Zero chance with Rodgers here. He’s basically running the franchise. LT or trade down. 

[Adoni Beast]

Tomorrow and the Washington game are the ones we need to worry about.

We’ll lose to Miami by 14+

Clevelands D will keep us to 3 points or less

Belichick would rather die than let himself to lose to the Jets + break the streak in the process…in what might be his last game as the HC of NE

[GangGreened]

Who needs a young QB when you have the 40 year old, reconstructed Achilles, AR8 who hasn’t had a 300 yard game since 2021?

[funaz]

8 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Tomorrow and the Washington game are the ones we need to worry about.

We’ll lose to Miami by 14+

Clevelands D will keep us to 3 points or less

Belichick would rather die than let himself to lose to the Jets + break the streak in the process…in what might be his last game as the HC of NE

This is correct. We aren't taking a QB in round one this year

[TuscanyTile2]

If we were in position to draft Caleb or Drake, I think we'd take whoever was available to us.   If Jayden Daniels is available to us, I could see a trade-down for a haul.  I don't think we'll be in position to take any of them though.  

[Jets723]

I’d prefer to trade back get extra picks.  Maybe take a QB in the 2nd or 3d who can sit behind AR for a year or two.  Jets probably want their top pick to have an immediate end mosey got Rodgers whether it’s OL or WR

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

This is     fantastic. Where did this come from? 

What this doesn't seem to take into account is #1 that there are two not three top QB prospects and #2 the need for QB of other teams. For example, if the Bears and Pats end up selecting #1 and #2, I think there's a very good chance both QBs will be gone. That's how its stacking up right now. If that is the case come draft day, even if the Jets have the #3 overall pick, there is no way they take a QB. Not with Harrison, Alt and Fashanu on the board.  

You're absolutely right, and I appreciate your insight. To refine the analysis with your considerations:

1. Reduced Number of Top QB Prospects: There are only two top QB prospects instead of five. This significantly reduces the probability of a top QB being available, especially if the Jets do not have one of the very top picks.

2. QB Need of Other Teams: If teams like the Bears and Patriots, who are ahead of the Jets in the draft order, also need a QB, they are likely to pick the top QB prospects if available. This further decreases the chance of a top QB being available for the Jets, especially if they are not in the top two picks.

3. Alternative Draft Options: The presence of other top prospects like Harrison, Alt, and Fashanu, who might be more valuable to the Jets than a lower-ranked QB, changes the dynamics. Even if a QB is available, the Jets might opt for one of these players instead.

Revised Analysis

Given these factors, we need to adjust our analysis:

• Probability of a Top QB Being Available for the Jets: This probability now depends heavily on the draft order. If the Jets are not in the top two, and if the Bears and Patriots (or other QB-needy teams ahead of the Jets) select the two top QB prospects, the probability of a top QB being available for the Jets is essentially zero.

• Team Decision Making: Even if a QB is somehow available (due to unexpected picks by other teams), the Jets might still prefer to pick one of the top players like Harrison, Alt, or Fashanu over a less desirable QB.

This revised scenario suggests a significantly lower probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round, especially if they are not within the top two picks and other teams ahead have a high need for QBs.

Chart Revision

A revised chart would reflect these changes, showing a very low probability of a top QB being available unless the Jets have one of the top two picks. Furthermore, it would show the alternative choices (like Harrison, Alt, Fashanu) the Jets might opt for even if a QB is available. Let's create this revised chart.

 

Error analyzing

The revised chart illustrates the updated probability analysis for the New York Jets selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, considering the new insights:

• The light green bars represent the probability of a top quarterback being available at each of the top 10 draft picks. As per the updated scenario, this probability drops to zero after the first two picks.
• The red horizontal line indicates the revised probability of the Jets choosing a quarterback, which is now assumed to be zero due to the availability of better prospects like Harrison, Alt, and Fashanu.
• The blue dashed line highlights the Jets' pick position, assumed to be the 3rd pick.

Given these factors, the likelihood of the Jets selecting a quarterback in this scenario is essentially zero, especially if they're picking third and the top two quarterback prospects are expected to be taken by teams with higher picks.

 

[Hael]

Im pretty sure Caleb and Drake will be gone by the time we pick.  If we get a choice between Harrison and Alt (unlikely as they will likely be gone as well) I would 100% take Harrison.

Harrison is a generational WR who is about as bust free as you can get.  He would instantly be the best weapon on a team that already has a lot of weapons, and we would likely overwhelm defenses b/c we simply outtalent them in too many positions.  AR throwing to GW/Harrison/Breece/Conklin and whatever WR3 we get in FA next year is insane.  You can’t double everyone and you can’t stack the box.

OL will simply have to be dealt with via trades and 3rd/4th round.  I continue to think our OL when healthy is underrated talent wise.  We lack depth, and a bonafide surefire tackle who is not injury prone.

[Jetsplayer21]

1 hour ago, Saul Goodman said:

Zero chance with Rodgers here. He’s basically running the franchise. LT or trade down. 

I thought that was a certainty this past draft. It had to be OL, or WR. That was the much bigger pick for AR. Not only getting at least 2 years with that draft pick, yr two could expect a step up in production. Since not all rookies are 🔥 out of the gate. So if say next yr is AR’s last yr, a rookie OT may not big a huge boost for AR. More so far future. Which brings back to why a qb makes sense if the 1 they covet is there. Obviously if jets lose out or only win 1 game, they will be in that prime spot for a top qb. And that would solidify, this team ( offense )  needs a LOT more than just a 1st round OT. This is a prime qb draft. Obviously zach Wilson’s yr was not. It was Trevor Lawerence and a huge drop after. 

[Rangers9]

If we're going all in with AR in 2024 you have to fortify the Oline or he could get taken out again. So I'd trade down to a team that wants a QB and get the extra picks to have a stable line and a workable offense. 

[Jetsplayer21]

3 minutes ago, Hael said:

Im pretty sure Caleb and Drake will be gone by the time we pick.  If we get a choice between Harrison and Alt (unlikely as they will likely be gone as well) I would 100% take Harrison.

Harrison is a generational WR who is about as bust free as you can get.  He would instantly be the best weapon on a team that already has a lot of weapons, and we would likely overwhelm defenses b/c we simply outtalent them in too many positions.  AR throwing to GW/Harrison/Breece/Conklin and whatever WR3 we get in FA next year is insane.  You can’t double everyone and you can’t stack the box.

OL will simply have to be dealt with via trades and 3rd/4th round.  I continue to think our OL when healthy is underrated talent wise.  We lack depth, and a bonafide surefire tackle who is not injury prone.

Don’t forget about Daniels are the others. I don’t think the final evaluation order is out yet. Agree on Harrison. But if he is gone it’s even more likely 1 of top qbs are there for jets. They can’t pass on that.

[Jetsplayer21]

5 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

If we're going all in with AR in 2024 you have to fortify the Oline or he could get taken out again. So I'd trade down to a team that wants a QB and get the extra picks to have a stable line and a workable offense. 

Can also sell off some D talent for O. It’s far too lopsided, and with AR talent on the O is lot more important.

[Beerfish]

3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Analysis

1. Probability of QB Availability:

   • If 30% of the top 10 picks are QBs, and there are 3 top QB prospects, there's a high chance (almost certain) that at least one QB will be available when the Jets pick.

2. Team Need Priority:

   • Given the Jets' primary need for a QB, the probability they will select a QB if one is available can be assumed to be high, let's say 80%.

3. Overall Probability Calculation:

   • The overall probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round would be a product of the probability of a QB being available and the probability of the Jets choosing a QB. Assuming independence of these events, the combined probability is: (Selecting QB)=(QB Available)×(Jets Choose QB)P(Selecting QB)=P(QB Available)×P(Jets Choose QB) (Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8P(Selecting QB)=1.0×0.8 (Selecting QB)=0.8P(Selecting QB)=0.8
   • So, there's an 80% chance the Jets will select a QB in the first round of the 2024 draft, based on these assumptions.

The probability of each of the top 10 picks being a QB (30% per pick).

• The cumulative probability of a QB being available when the Jets pick.
• The final probability of the Jets selecting a QB.

This chart to illustrates the analysis.

The chart visually represents the probability analysis of the New York Jets selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. It shows the cumulative probability of a quarterback being available with each top 10 draft pick (in sky blue). The red line indicates the assumed 80% probability of the Jets choosing a quarterback if one is available.

As the draft pick number increases, the cumulative probability of a QB being available also increases, reaching nearly 100% by the 10th pick. This high availability, combined with the 80% probability of the Jets opting for a QB, supports the overall 80% probability of the Jets selecting a QB in the first round.

Point number 2 is totally incorrect thus the rest of the analysis fails.

[Rich Thornburgh]

We’re reaching for OT.  Zach is the starting qb 2024

[Rangers9]

29 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said:

Can also sell off some D talent for O. It’s far too lopsided, and with AR talent on the O is lot more important.

Even if you spend your assets on a rookie QB it's crazy to play them without having a good Oline. 

[Xtina]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Reduced Number of Top QB Prospects: There are only two top QB prospects instead of five. This significantly reduces the probability of a top QB being available, especially if the Jets do not have

La Canfora:

 However, as the college season winds down and many of the top quarterback prospects bow out of bowl games, it’s becoming clear that this crop will probably rival the class of 1983 in at least some capacities.

At this point, many in the industry would not be shocked if the 2024 class tied that ’83 group with six quarterbacks taken in the first round, beginning with the top two selections. And had Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders opted to enter the draft, we would be talking about seven in the first 32 picks — and perhaps six in the top 10. Only three other times have even five quarterbacks gone in the first round (2021, 2018 and 1999). And 2024 will probably far surpass the 1983 quarterback output in the top 10 picks; only Elway and Todd Blackledge went that early in 1983, while many invested in the process are convinced that at least four passers will be taken within the top 10 in 2024, matching the 2018 record. Some believe that quarterbacks will make up half of the top 10.

One veteran evaluator who has watched this class closely said: “People really like this group. It’s deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if six go [in the first round]. I really wouldn’t. There are three who for me belong at the top of the draft, top-five picks. I’ll bet you at least four go in the top 10, probably five. And somebody will grab one at the bottom of the round.”

One top agent, who is actively involved in this upcoming quarterback draft as well as the free agent market, said: “A lot of teams will address quarterback in the draft. Like New Orleans, Tampa, Atlanta — who haven’t been willing to use a first-round pick on one — I think they do here. [Quarterbacks] might go one, two, three. I kind of hate to think about it for some of my [NFL quarterback clients], but quarterbacks are going to dominate the first round. I agree.”

Gift link to article :

NFL

Ranking the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL draft

Analysis by Jason La Canfora

NFL insider and analyst

December 9, 2023 at 8:00 a.m. EST

https://wapo.st/3GyJTUO

 

[Beerfish]

11 minutes ago, Xtina said:

La Canfora:

 However, as the college season winds down and many of the top quarterback prospects bow out of bowl games, it’s becoming clear that this crop will probably rival the class of 1983 in at least some capacities.

At this point, many in the industry would not be shocked if the 2024 class tied that ’83 group with six quarterbacks taken in the first round, beginning with the top two selections. And had Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders opted to enter the draft, we would be talking about seven in the first 32 picks — and perhaps six in the top 10. Only three other times have even five quarterbacks gone in the first round (2021, 2018 and 1999). And 2024 will probably far surpass the 1983 quarterback output in the top 10 picks; only Elway and Todd Blackledge went that early in 1983, while many invested in the process are convinced that at least four passers will be taken within the top 10 in 2024, matching the 2018 record. Some believe that quarterbacks will make up half of the top 10.

One veteran evaluator who has watched this class closely said: “People really like this group. It’s deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if six go [in the first round]. I really wouldn’t. There are three who for me belong at the top of the draft, top-five picks. I’ll bet you at least four go in the top 10, probably five. And somebody will grab one at the bottom of the round.”

One top agent, who is actively involved in this upcoming quarterback draft as well as the free agent market, said: “A lot of teams will address quarterback in the draft. Like New Orleans, Tampa, Atlanta — who haven’t been willing to use a first-round pick on one — I think they do here. [Quarterbacks] might go one, two, three. I kind of hate to think about it for some of my [NFL quarterback clients], but quarterbacks are going to dominate the first round. I agree.”

Gift link to article :

NFL

Ranking the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL draft

Analysis by Jason La Canfora

NFL insider and analyst

December 9, 2023 at 8:00 a.m. EST

https://wapo.st/3GyJTUO

 

They say the same stuff almost every single year.

It will be great for the Jets if this is true.

"I think they do here. [Quarterbacks] might go one, two, three."

Also great for us if we want to trade down.

[neckdemon]

4 hours ago, PepPep said:

If Caleb or Maye are there for the Jets I don't think they can pass up on one of them. 

So I ask the math geeks, what are the odds of the Jets getting a shot to draft one of these guys? 

The Cards could still win a game b/c they play the Bears. 

Pats can still beat the Jets and maybe even Denver. 

Commanders still face the Jets.

The way I see it, if we lose out and things fall our way, we could be sitting at #3 overall with the Bears and ARI selecting ahead of us. And there is a good chance one of those teams will not pass on Harrison. 

 

Go Pats?

 

if we lose out and everything falls perfect then we would be at picks 2. 1 spot less than perfect has us at 3. there might be a scenario where we lose out and somehow the giants overtake us on a weaker strength of schedule but since they still play the eagles twice i don't think it's happening. 

[Arsis]

Were gonna win 2 games and end up with pick 11 because we can't even lose right.

[Barry McCockinner]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

Point number 2 is totally incorrect thus the rest of the analysis fails.

https://chat.openai.com/share/20aa903e-3ccd-4e70-b895-0eeec12a0e04

[Beerfish]

9 minutes ago, Arsis said:

Were gonna win 2 games and end up with pick 11 because we can't even lose right.

This is the real correct answer.  Meaningless wins at the end of each year that saves jobs of lousy coaches and gms and screws draft position.

[Hex]

Hopefully 0%. I don't trust the Jets to draft a QB high anymore, especially when it's the same GM as the last time.