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"The Jets Run Every First Down"


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I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         
Date: 
Rank Team 2023 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2022
1 Houston 66.67% 55.81% 40.00% 68.24% 64.42% 57.40%
2 LA Chargers 65.16% 69.57% 76.47% 60.99% 70.87% 66.22%
3 Green Bay 63.84% 68.75% 62.50% 64.17% 63.46% 55.69%
4 Las Vegas 63.68% 75.00% 62.50% 63.06% 64.36% 56.27%
5 Cincinnati 63.31% 66.07% 57.89% 66.40% 60.16% 60.76%
6 NY Jets 63.21% 71.74% 75.00% 64.23% 61.43% 64.97%
7 Minnesota 63.08% 52.00% 56.25% 62.41% 63.78% 64.52%
8 Miami 62.78% 57.14% 50.00% 60.83% 64.38% 64.80%
9 Kansas City 61.05% 63.77% 66.67% 61.15% 60.96% 66.32%
10 Detroit 60.07% 58.93% 53.85% 60.84% 59.26% 60.64%
11 Seattle 60.00% 58.93% 64.71% 56.90% 62.79% 59.78%
11 Washington 60.00% 51.61% 45.45% 61.29% 58.87% 54.28%
13 Tampa Bay 59.83% 50.00% 50.00% 64.65% 56.15% 70.27%
14 Dallas 58.88% 60.26% 54.17% 62.09% 54.10% 56.44%
15 Jacksonville 58.24% 64.62% 80.00% 56.90% 59.31% 59.85%
16 LA Rams 57.95% 57.97% 58.33% 52.89% 62.24% 61.77%
17 New Orleans 57.94% 55.93% 57.14% 60.36% 56.03% 59.34%
18 Indianapolis 57.66% 57.81% 73.68% 55.28% 60.00% 62.26%
19 New England 56.22% 53.33% 78.57% 58.88% 53.64% 57.64%
20 Buffalo 55.14% 51.39% 57.14% 53.57% 56.58% 58.88%
21 Atlanta 54.58% 52.38% 65.22% 56.05% 52.38% 44.85%
22 Pittsburgh 54.38% 65.52% 55.56% 55.47% 52.50% 54.78%
23 San Francisco 54.14% 51.52% 63.16% 56.85% 51.39% 54.09%
24 Chicago 53.36% 50.79% 50.00% 51.54% 55.28% 39.21%
25 NY Giants 53.26% 56.41% 70.00% 44.93% 58.26% 49.11%
26 Arizona 52.97% 50.88% 38.89% 52.50% 53.45% 57.98%
27 Philadelphia 52.41% 64.06% 58.82% 50.00% 54.67% 47.72%
28 Carolina 51.69% 36.00% 25.00% 52.38% 51.32% 49.11%
29 Tennessee 51.20% 51.92% 48.00% 47.06% 55.14% 55.23%
30 Denver 49.35% 36.54% 47.37% 47.66% 51.49% 55.33%
31 Cleveland 49.21% 56.36% 68.75% 49.22% 49.19% 52.00%
32 Baltimore 48.54% 53.85% 73.91% 50.00% 46.72% 44.44%
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4 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Then when that comes back as at/above the league average?  ******* Jets making Zach throw on 3rd and 10!

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12 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Yet another interesting stat would be, the percentage of the time you’re ahead in games and you run on first down and when you’re behind.  I think what riles us fans up is when we’re down multiple scores in the 2nd half and they’re running on first down for no gain

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29 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Only slightly less often than we call a pass, take a sack, and have 3rd and 85?

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5 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't think I've heard people say we run too much on 1st down. My issue is EVERY time we get an incomplete pass on 1st down the next play is ALWAYS a run up the gut

Really? I see it all the time on here. "hackett goes run, run, pass all the time", "we run every first down" "first play is run up the middle we all know that already"

do you have any data to show what you're saying is accurate? not saying you're wrong but people just say stuff.

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I'm not sure who is claiming that "the Jets run every first down," but it is clearly not the case.

Just my anecdotal feelings, but the main sequence of plays for the Jets on offense this season has been:

1st and 10 - Incomplete pass
2nd and 10 - Breece run up the middle for zero yards
False start
3rd and 15 - Sack
Punt

 

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1 hour ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

This. LaFleur fell into this trap too while he was here. And I've hated that call since the beginning of time. Interestingly it seems to be a reflexive reaction by some OCs, and not based on evaluating what the defense may do. Here's some soft evidence: I don't feel like OCs do the second and 10 run as much where the first down play was itself a run.

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2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         
Date: 
Rank Team 2023 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2022
1 Houston 66.67% 55.81% 40.00% 68.24% 64.42% 57.40%
2 LA Chargers 65.16% 69.57% 76.47% 60.99% 70.87% 66.22%
3 Green Bay 63.84% 68.75% 62.50% 64.17% 63.46% 55.69%
4 Las Vegas 63.68% 75.00% 62.50% 63.06% 64.36% 56.27%
5 Cincinnati 63.31% 66.07% 57.89% 66.40% 60.16% 60.76%
6 NY Jets 63.21% 71.74% 75.00% 64.23% 61.43% 64.97%
7 Minnesota 63.08% 52.00% 56.25% 62.41% 63.78% 64.52%
8 Miami 62.78% 57.14% 50.00% 60.83% 64.38% 64.80%
9 Kansas City 61.05% 63.77% 66.67% 61.15% 60.96% 66.32%
10 Detroit 60.07% 58.93% 53.85% 60.84% 59.26% 60.64%
11 Seattle 60.00% 58.93% 64.71% 56.90% 62.79% 59.78%
11 Washington 60.00% 51.61% 45.45% 61.29% 58.87% 54.28%
13 Tampa Bay 59.83% 50.00% 50.00% 64.65% 56.15% 70.27%
14 Dallas 58.88% 60.26% 54.17% 62.09% 54.10% 56.44%
15 Jacksonville 58.24% 64.62% 80.00% 56.90% 59.31% 59.85%
16 LA Rams 57.95% 57.97% 58.33% 52.89% 62.24% 61.77%
17 New Orleans 57.94% 55.93% 57.14% 60.36% 56.03% 59.34%
18 Indianapolis 57.66% 57.81% 73.68% 55.28% 60.00% 62.26%
19 New England 56.22% 53.33% 78.57% 58.88% 53.64% 57.64%
20 Buffalo 55.14% 51.39% 57.14% 53.57% 56.58% 58.88%
21 Atlanta 54.58% 52.38% 65.22% 56.05% 52.38% 44.85%
22 Pittsburgh 54.38% 65.52% 55.56% 55.47% 52.50% 54.78%
23 San Francisco 54.14% 51.52% 63.16% 56.85% 51.39% 54.09%
24 Chicago 53.36% 50.79% 50.00% 51.54% 55.28% 39.21%
25 NY Giants 53.26% 56.41% 70.00% 44.93% 58.26% 49.11%
26 Arizona 52.97% 50.88% 38.89% 52.50% 53.45% 57.98%
27 Philadelphia 52.41% 64.06% 58.82% 50.00% 54.67% 47.72%
28 Carolina 51.69% 36.00% 25.00% 52.38% 51.32% 49.11%
29 Tennessee 51.20% 51.92% 48.00% 47.06% 55.14% 55.23%
30 Denver 49.35% 36.54% 47.37% 47.66% 51.49% 55.33%
31 Cleveland 49.21% 56.36% 68.75% 49.22% 49.19% 52.00%
32 Baltimore 48.54% 53.85% 73.91% 50.00% 46.72% 44.44%

Most of their running comes from 2 and 10,12,15 whatever you lose on the sack when you try to pass on first down

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2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         
Date: 
Rank Team 2023 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2022
1 Houston 66.67% 55.81% 40.00% 68.24% 64.42% 57.40%
2 LA Chargers 65.16% 69.57% 76.47% 60.99% 70.87% 66.22%
3 Green Bay 63.84% 68.75% 62.50% 64.17% 63.46% 55.69%
4 Las Vegas 63.68% 75.00% 62.50% 63.06% 64.36% 56.27%
5 Cincinnati 63.31% 66.07% 57.89% 66.40% 60.16% 60.76%
6 NY Jets 63.21% 71.74% 75.00% 64.23% 61.43% 64.97%
7 Minnesota 63.08% 52.00% 56.25% 62.41% 63.78% 64.52%
8 Miami 62.78% 57.14% 50.00% 60.83% 64.38% 64.80%
9 Kansas City 61.05% 63.77% 66.67% 61.15% 60.96% 66.32%
10 Detroit 60.07% 58.93% 53.85% 60.84% 59.26% 60.64%
11 Seattle 60.00% 58.93% 64.71% 56.90% 62.79% 59.78%
11 Washington 60.00% 51.61% 45.45% 61.29% 58.87% 54.28%
13 Tampa Bay 59.83% 50.00% 50.00% 64.65% 56.15% 70.27%
14 Dallas 58.88% 60.26% 54.17% 62.09% 54.10% 56.44%
15 Jacksonville 58.24% 64.62% 80.00% 56.90% 59.31% 59.85%
16 LA Rams 57.95% 57.97% 58.33% 52.89% 62.24% 61.77%
17 New Orleans 57.94% 55.93% 57.14% 60.36% 56.03% 59.34%
18 Indianapolis 57.66% 57.81% 73.68% 55.28% 60.00% 62.26%
19 New England 56.22% 53.33% 78.57% 58.88% 53.64% 57.64%
20 Buffalo 55.14% 51.39% 57.14% 53.57% 56.58% 58.88%
21 Atlanta 54.58% 52.38% 65.22% 56.05% 52.38% 44.85%
22 Pittsburgh 54.38% 65.52% 55.56% 55.47% 52.50% 54.78%
23 San Francisco 54.14% 51.52% 63.16% 56.85% 51.39% 54.09%
24 Chicago 53.36% 50.79% 50.00% 51.54% 55.28% 39.21%
25 NY Giants 53.26% 56.41% 70.00% 44.93% 58.26% 49.11%
26 Arizona 52.97% 50.88% 38.89% 52.50% 53.45% 57.98%
27 Philadelphia 52.41% 64.06% 58.82% 50.00% 54.67% 47.72%
28 Carolina 51.69% 36.00% 25.00% 52.38% 51.32% 49.11%
29 Tennessee 51.20% 51.92% 48.00% 47.06% 55.14% 55.23%
30 Denver 49.35% 36.54% 47.37% 47.66% 51.49% 55.33%
31 Cleveland 49.21% 56.36% 68.75% 49.22% 49.19% 52.00%
32 Baltimore 48.54% 53.85% 73.91% 50.00% 46.72% 44.44%

I wonder how that breakdown changes when only looking at the first half, or even the first 3 quarters, before losing teams are chasing the winner when time remaining is a factor. Plus the opposite for teams that are typically leading late, who likely run-run-run (or anyway, run on 1st downs) when they're protecting a lead.

Otherwise it's got the cart before the horse, at least a little bit. Like when Parcells said he wanted to run the ball 500x because he did an analysis and teams that ran at least 500x tended to make the playoffs. That was like saying nighttime darkness typically causes the earth to rotate away from the sun.

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2 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Splits by Down

 
  Rushing Passing  
Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A  
1st 335 10.22 5.62 154 743 4.8 4 20 103 168 61.3 1232 7.3 4 4 13 43 81.7 6.3 All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd 249 8.65 3.34 84 240 2.9 0 17 84 149 56.4 676 4.5 3 5 16 35 60.7 3.1 All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd 176 8.27 3.57 32 165 5.2 0 7 72 119 60.5 660 5.5 2 1 25 36 77.7 4.5 All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th 22 4.68 5.73 7 20 2.9 0 7 12 14 85.7 121 8.6 0 1 1 8 72.9 5.1 All Jets plays on 4th down
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20 minutes ago, JagsFanJif said:

Splits by Down

 
  Rushing Passing  
Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A  
1st 335 10.22 5.62 154 743 4.8 4 20 103 168 61.3 1232 7.3 4 4 13 43 81.7 6.3 All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd 249 8.65 3.34 84 240 2.9 0 17 84 149 56.4 676 4.5 3 5 16 35 60.7 3.1 All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd 176 8.27 3.57 32 165 5.2 0 7 72 119 60.5 660 5.5 2 1 25 36 77.7 4.5 All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th 22 4.68 5.73 7 20 2.9 0 7 12 14 85.7 121 8.6 0 1 1 8 72.9 5.1 All Jets plays on 4th down

Brutal graph on the phone, lol

 

IMG_0501.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Really? I see it all the time on here. "hackett goes run, run, pass all the time", "we run every first down" "first play is run up the middle we all know that already"

do you have any data to show what you're saying is accurate? not saying you're wrong but people just say stuff.

Lol nah no data points, just notice every 1st down incompletion is followed by a run up the gut for no gain. I did a count against Miami or Buffalo and it was 4 for 4 through the 1st half lol

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5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         
Date: 
Rank Team 2023 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2022
1 Houston 66.67% 55.81% 40.00% 68.24% 64.42% 57.40%
2 LA Chargers 65.16% 69.57% 76.47% 60.99% 70.87% 66.22%
3 Green Bay 63.84% 68.75% 62.50% 64.17% 63.46% 55.69%
4 Las Vegas 63.68% 75.00% 62.50% 63.06% 64.36% 56.27%
5 Cincinnati 63.31% 66.07% 57.89% 66.40% 60.16% 60.76%
6 NY Jets 63.21% 71.74% 75.00% 64.23% 61.43% 64.97%
7 Minnesota 63.08% 52.00% 56.25% 62.41% 63.78% 64.52%
8 Miami 62.78% 57.14% 50.00% 60.83% 64.38% 64.80%
9 Kansas City 61.05% 63.77% 66.67% 61.15% 60.96% 66.32%
10 Detroit 60.07% 58.93% 53.85% 60.84% 59.26% 60.64%
11 Seattle 60.00% 58.93% 64.71% 56.90% 62.79% 59.78%
11 Washington 60.00% 51.61% 45.45% 61.29% 58.87% 54.28%
13 Tampa Bay 59.83% 50.00% 50.00% 64.65% 56.15% 70.27%
14 Dallas 58.88% 60.26% 54.17% 62.09% 54.10% 56.44%
15 Jacksonville 58.24% 64.62% 80.00% 56.90% 59.31% 59.85%
16 LA Rams 57.95% 57.97% 58.33% 52.89% 62.24% 61.77%
17 New Orleans 57.94% 55.93% 57.14% 60.36% 56.03% 59.34%
18 Indianapolis 57.66% 57.81% 73.68% 55.28% 60.00% 62.26%
19 New England 56.22% 53.33% 78.57% 58.88% 53.64% 57.64%
20 Buffalo 55.14% 51.39% 57.14% 53.57% 56.58% 58.88%
21 Atlanta 54.58% 52.38% 65.22% 56.05% 52.38% 44.85%
22 Pittsburgh 54.38% 65.52% 55.56% 55.47% 52.50% 54.78%
23 San Francisco 54.14% 51.52% 63.16% 56.85% 51.39% 54.09%
24 Chicago 53.36% 50.79% 50.00% 51.54% 55.28% 39.21%
25 NY Giants 53.26% 56.41% 70.00% 44.93% 58.26% 49.11%
26 Arizona 52.97% 50.88% 38.89% 52.50% 53.45% 57.98%
27 Philadelphia 52.41% 64.06% 58.82% 50.00% 54.67% 47.72%
28 Carolina 51.69% 36.00% 25.00% 52.38% 51.32% 49.11%
29 Tennessee 51.20% 51.92% 48.00% 47.06% 55.14% 55.23%
30 Denver 49.35% 36.54% 47.37% 47.66% 51.49% 55.33%
31 Cleveland 49.21% 56.36% 68.75% 49.22% 49.19% 52.00%
32 Baltimore 48.54% 53.85% 73.91% 50.00% 46.72% 44.44%

Yes, when they're down by double digits late in the game and haven't moved the ball all day they'll start throwing on first down when it's very obvious that they'll be throwing on first down.

In addition to that, when they do throw the ball, no matter the down, it's consistently within 10-15 yards of the LOS.

So just as we witnessed with Paul Hackett, his genius son Paul Jr. is only making the defense defend a small portion of the field.

But I'm sure it's not Hackett's fault.  It's Zach fault, Boyle's fault, Pennington's fault and I wouldn't be surprised if it was Russell Wilson's fault in Denver last season.

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3 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Yes, when they're down by double digits late in the game and haven't moved the ball all day they'll start throwing on first down when it's very obvious that they'll be throwing on first down.

In addition to that, when they do throw the ball, no matter the down, it's consistently within 10-15 yards of the LOS.

So just as we witnessed with Paul Hackett, his genius son Paul Jr. is only making the defense defend a small portion of the field.

But I'm sure it's not Hackett's fault.  It's Zach fault, Boyle's fault, Pennington's fault and I wouldn't be surprised if it was Russell Wilson's fault in Denver last season.

This was not a Hackett is secretly good thread. I agree the guy sucks. But he's not running the ball every first down when it's still a game. If you disagree feel free to show your work. And don't give me the "watch the games" BS. I watch the damn games.

Teams with more losses than the Jets are far lower on the list.

 

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