"The Jets Run Every First Down"

[Barry McCockinner]

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

[nycdan]

To be fair, that may be influenced by the fact that we were generally down by two scores of more before the end of the 1st quarter in recent weeks (other than this past Sunday).

[peekskill68]

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

Nope. Don't believe it. Demand a recount.

[Matt39]

Pesky evidence 

[#27TheDominator]

4 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Then when that comes back as at/above the league average?  ******* Jets making Zach throw on 3rd and 10!

[Claymation]

1st half of the season.

[CanadienJetsFan]

Interesting site. thanks and just as i suspected, we truly are an undisciplined bunch.

we're tied dead last for Team Penalties per Game, and third to last at Team Penalties per Play.

 

[Bronx]

Zach Wilson's trade talks has elevated everyone's game. Coincidence?

[Augustiniak]

12 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Yet another interesting stat would be, the percentage of the time you’re ahead in games and you run on first down and when you’re behind.  I think what riles us fans up is when we’re down multiple scores in the 2nd half and they’re running on first down for no gain

[JetPotato]

Yeah, but that's just because other teams get more than one first down per possession.

[Warfish]

29 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Only slightly less often than we call a pass, take a sack, and have 3rd and 85?

[bla bla bla]

I don't think I've heard people say we run too much on 1st down. My issue is EVERY time we get an incomplete pass on 1st down the next play is ALWAYS a run up the gut

[Barry McCockinner]

5 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't think I've heard people say we run too much on 1st down. My issue is EVERY time we get an incomplete pass on 1st down the next play is ALWAYS a run up the gut

Really? I see it all the time on here. "hackett goes run, run, pass all the time", "we run every first down" "first play is run up the middle we all know that already"

do you have any data to show what you're saying is accurate? not saying you're wrong but people just say stuff.

[Barry McCockinner]

33 minutes ago, Claymation said:

1st half of the season.

so even when we were closer to middle of the pack we passed more on 1st down than we ran.

[DoubleDown]

I'm not sure who is claiming that "the Jets run every first down," but it is clearly not the case.

Just my anecdotal feelings, but the main sequence of plays for the Jets on offense this season has been:

1st and 10 - Incomplete pass
2nd and 10 - Breece run up the middle for zero yards
False start
3rd and 15 - Sack
Punt

 

[DoubleDown]

34 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't think I've heard people say we run too much on 1st down. My issue is EVERY time we get an incomplete pass on 1st down the next play is ALWAYS a run up the gut

Yep, a run up the gut for 1 yard max.

[Alworth]

1 hour ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

This. LaFleur fell into this trap too while he was here. And I've hated that call since the beginning of time. Interestingly it seems to be a reflexive reaction by some OCs, and not based on evaluating what the defense may do. Here's some soft evidence: I don't feel like OCs do the second and 10 run as much where the first down play was itself a run.

[faba]

When the QB is off target or takes a sack is where the Jets problem lies on that first down

[Joe Jets fan]

Now break it down by quarter. I would bet the first and 2nd quarter tell a different story. 

[TuscanyTile2]

1 hour ago, Claymation said:

1st half of the season.

Shh!  You're destroying the narrative of the guy who was trying to destroy the narrative.

[shawn306]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

Most of their running comes from 2 and 10,12,15 whatever you lose on the sack when you try to pass on first down

[Larz]

It’s ok. Zach can’t hurt you.  He doesn’t even know you 

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, shawn306 said:

Most of their running comes from 2 and 10,12,15 whatever you lose on the sack when you try to pass on first down

link?

[Barry McCockinner]

1 minute ago, Larz said:

It’s ok. Zach can’t hurt you.  He doesn’t even know you 

what are you talking about Larz?

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

The bigger problem is runs up the gut for nothing on 2nd and 10 or worse after ZW fails on 1st down.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

I wonder how that breakdown changes when only looking at the first half, or even the first 3 quarters, before losing teams are chasing the winner when time remaining is a factor. Plus the opposite for teams that are typically leading late, who likely run-run-run (or anyway, run on 1st downs) when they're protecting a lead.

Otherwise it's got the cart before the horse, at least a little bit. Like when Parcells said he wanted to run the ball 500x because he did an analysis and teams that ran at least 500x tended to make the playoffs. That was like saying nighttime darkness typically causes the earth to rotate away from the sun.

[JiFtheOracle]

2 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

A more interesting stat would be second down.  After the first down throw is incomplete (most of the time), how many times have we run Breece or Cook into the line to set up a "3rd and manageable"?

Splits by Down

 

				Rushing					Passing
Down	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st	335	10.22	5.62	154	743	4.8	4	20	103	168	61.3	1232	7.3	4	4	13	43	81.7	6.3	All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd	249	8.65	3.34	84	240	2.9	0	17	84	149	56.4	676	4.5	3	5	16	35	60.7	3.1	All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd	176	8.27	3.57	32	165	5.2	0	7	72	119	60.5	660	5.5	2	1	25	36	77.7	4.5	All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th	22	4.68	5.73	7	20	2.9	0	7	12	14	85.7	121	8.6	0	1	1	8	72.9	5.1	All Jets plays on 4th down

[Augustiniak]

21 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

The bigger problem is runs up the gut for nothing on 2nd and 10 or worse after ZW fails on 1st down.

Then i would say the bigger problem is the bad completion %.  

[Hex]

20 minutes ago, JagsFanJif said:

Splits by Down

 

				Rushing					Passing
Down	#Pl	ToGo	Yds	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Sk	1D	Rate	ANY/A
1st	335	10.22	5.62	154	743	4.8	4	20	103	168	61.3	1232	7.3	4	4	13	43	81.7	6.3	All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd	249	8.65	3.34	84	240	2.9	0	17	84	149	56.4	676	4.5	3	5	16	35	60.7	3.1	All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd	176	8.27	3.57	32	165	5.2	0	7	72	119	60.5	660	5.5	2	1	25	36	77.7	4.5	All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th	22	4.68	5.73	7	20	2.9	0	7	12	14	85.7	121	8.6	0	1	1	8	72.9	5.1	All Jets plays on 4th down

Brutal graph on the phone, lol

 

[Bungaman]

43 minutes ago, Hex said:

Brutal graph on the phone, lol

 

Yeah, that helps a lot ... 

[bla bla bla]

3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Really? I see it all the time on here. "hackett goes run, run, pass all the time", "we run every first down" "first play is run up the middle we all know that already"

do you have any data to show what you're saying is accurate? not saying you're wrong but people just say stuff.

Lol nah no data points, just notice every 1st down incompletion is followed by a run up the gut for no gain. I did a count against Miami or Buffalo and it was 4 for 4 through the 1st half lol

[AFJF]

5 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I see people propagate this myth on here frequently and just want to set the record straight. There are only 5 teams in the league who have passed the ball at a higher percentage than the Jets on first down this year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-first-down-pct

NFL Team Passing First Down Percentage

                                                                   2023                                                         

Date: 

Rank	Team	2023	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2022
1	Houston	66.67%	55.81%	40.00%	68.24%	64.42%	57.40%
2	LA Chargers	65.16%	69.57%	76.47%	60.99%	70.87%	66.22%
3	Green Bay	63.84%	68.75%	62.50%	64.17%	63.46%	55.69%
4	Las Vegas	63.68%	75.00%	62.50%	63.06%	64.36%	56.27%
5	Cincinnati	63.31%	66.07%	57.89%	66.40%	60.16%	60.76%
6	NY Jets	63.21%	71.74%	75.00%	64.23%	61.43%	64.97%
7	Minnesota	63.08%	52.00%	56.25%	62.41%	63.78%	64.52%
8	Miami	62.78%	57.14%	50.00%	60.83%	64.38%	64.80%
9	Kansas City	61.05%	63.77%	66.67%	61.15%	60.96%	66.32%
10	Detroit	60.07%	58.93%	53.85%	60.84%	59.26%	60.64%
11	Seattle	60.00%	58.93%	64.71%	56.90%	62.79%	59.78%
11	Washington	60.00%	51.61%	45.45%	61.29%	58.87%	54.28%
13	Tampa Bay	59.83%	50.00%	50.00%	64.65%	56.15%	70.27%
14	Dallas	58.88%	60.26%	54.17%	62.09%	54.10%	56.44%
15	Jacksonville	58.24%	64.62%	80.00%	56.90%	59.31%	59.85%
16	LA Rams	57.95%	57.97%	58.33%	52.89%	62.24%	61.77%
17	New Orleans	57.94%	55.93%	57.14%	60.36%	56.03%	59.34%
18	Indianapolis	57.66%	57.81%	73.68%	55.28%	60.00%	62.26%
19	New England	56.22%	53.33%	78.57%	58.88%	53.64%	57.64%
20	Buffalo	55.14%	51.39%	57.14%	53.57%	56.58%	58.88%
21	Atlanta	54.58%	52.38%	65.22%	56.05%	52.38%	44.85%
22	Pittsburgh	54.38%	65.52%	55.56%	55.47%	52.50%	54.78%
23	San Francisco	54.14%	51.52%	63.16%	56.85%	51.39%	54.09%
24	Chicago	53.36%	50.79%	50.00%	51.54%	55.28%	39.21%
25	NY Giants	53.26%	56.41%	70.00%	44.93%	58.26%	49.11%
26	Arizona	52.97%	50.88%	38.89%	52.50%	53.45%	57.98%
27	Philadelphia	52.41%	64.06%	58.82%	50.00%	54.67%	47.72%
28	Carolina	51.69%	36.00%	25.00%	52.38%	51.32%	49.11%
29	Tennessee	51.20%	51.92%	48.00%	47.06%	55.14%	55.23%
30	Denver	49.35%	36.54%	47.37%	47.66%	51.49%	55.33%
31	Cleveland	49.21%	56.36%	68.75%	49.22%	49.19%	52.00%
32	Baltimore	48.54%	53.85%	73.91%	50.00%	46.72%	44.44%

Yes, when they're down by double digits late in the game and haven't moved the ball all day they'll start throwing on first down when it's very obvious that they'll be throwing on first down.

In addition to that, when they do throw the ball, no matter the down, it's consistently within 10-15 yards of the LOS.

So just as we witnessed with Paul Hackett, his genius son Paul Jr. is only making the defense defend a small portion of the field.

But I'm sure it's not Hackett's fault.  It's Zach fault, Boyle's fault, Pennington's fault and I wouldn't be surprised if it was Russell Wilson's fault in Denver last season.

[Barry McCockinner]

3 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Yes, when they're down by double digits late in the game and haven't moved the ball all day they'll start throwing on first down when it's very obvious that they'll be throwing on first down.

In addition to that, when they do throw the ball, no matter the down, it's consistently within 10-15 yards of the LOS.

So just as we witnessed with Paul Hackett, his genius son Paul Jr. is only making the defense defend a small portion of the field.

But I'm sure it's not Hackett's fault.  It's Zach fault, Boyle's fault, Pennington's fault and I wouldn't be surprised if it was Russell Wilson's fault in Denver last season.

This was not a Hackett is secretly good thread. I agree the guy sucks. But he's not running the ball every first down when it's still a game. If you disagree feel free to show your work. And don't give me the "watch the games" BS. I watch the damn games.

Teams with more losses than the Jets are far lower on the list.

 

[Integrity28]

Rate we were going, I was more interested in our stats for punting on first down. Everything is fixed completely now though, so I won’t make that joke.