Nathaniel Hackett made a great adjustment to the NY Jets’ offense

[LIJetsFan]

 

By  Michael Nania  12/14/2023

It should have been done a long time ago, but New York Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett finally caught onto a potential solution for his team

If you’ve been following my criticisms of New York Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett throughout this season, you know that one thing I’ve constantly suggested him to do is increase the team’s usage of 12 personnel packages (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). Despite finding plenty of success when using the package this year, the Jets have chosen to use it at a below-average rate.

Entering Week 14, the Jets were averaging 5.3 yards per play when using 12 personnel, which ranked 13th-best in the NFL. However, the Jets used 12 personnel on just 16.1% of their plays, ranking 24th in the league (NFL average: 20%).

Meanwhile, the Jets have been awful when using their 11 personnel package (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), and yet, they have used it at an above-average rate. The Jets entered Week 14 ranked last with 3.9 yards per play when using 11 personnel, but they still used it on 66.5% of their plays, ranking 11th-highest (NFL average: 62%).

It appears that Hackett has finally seen the light. It’s too little, too late, and I don’t know why he did not come to this realization in September, but at least it’s something.

In the Jets’ offensive “explosion” against the Texans (three touchdowns might as well be thirty for this team), Hackett pumped up the Jets’ usage of 12 personnel to a higher rate than usual. The decision played an integral role in facilitating the Jets’ success.

Against Houston, the Jets used 12 personnel on 22.7% of their plays, a new season-high. Their previous season-high was barely lower at 22.6%, but that was all the way back in Week 1 against Buffalo.

This turned out to be a great decision, as even with a higher volume of 12 personnel plays, the Jets maintained their excellent season-long efficiency with 12 personnel. Across 15 plays with 12 personnel against Houston, the Jets picked up 123 yards, a sparkling average of 8.2 yards per play.

It’s not as if the yards-per-play number was boosted by one or two big plays, either. The Jets were consistently successful, as they registered a success rate* of 60% when using 12 personnel.

*- Criteria for a “successful” play: Gains at least 40% of required yards on first down, 50% of required yards on second down, or moves the chains on third/fourth down.

Hackett knocked the Jets’ 11 personnel usage rate down to 40.9%, their second-lowest mark of the season (ahead of only the Week 1 Buffalo game, 39.6%). It was just the second time all season that New York used 11 personnel on less than half of its offensive plays.

Even in their best offensive performance of the season, the Jets were still poor when using 11 personnel. They averaged 4.0 yards per play with a 37% success rate (although two of their three touchdowns came with 11 personnel on the field).

Another big change in this game was a significant boost in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR). By definition, 21 personnel features two running backs, but one of those two backs is typically a fullback. In the Jets’ case, their 21 personnel package includes fullback Nick Bawden alongside one running back.

The Jets used 21 personnel on 18.2% of their plays against Houston, ranking as their second-highest mark of the season (trailing the Week 5 game at Denver, 22.6%). Just like with 12 personnel, the Jets had plenty of success when using 21 personnel against Houston. Across 12 plays, the Jets gained 85 yards (7.1 yards per play) and had a 50% success rate.

On the year, New York is averaging 6.4 yards per play with 21 personnel (ninth-best).

It’s clear the Jets’ offense is at its best when using 12 personnel or 21 personnel. This makes plenty of sense when you consider the team’s roster makeup. The Jets have one reliable wide receiver on the team. Beyond Garrett Wilson, they have arguably the thinnest wide receiver unit in the NFL.

However, when the Jets trot out 12 personnel or 21 personnel, the talent on the field is much more respectable. With Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert, the Jets go two-deep at tight end. Nick Bawden is a solid blocker at the fullback position and the Jets have performed well when he is on the field.

When the Jets use 11 personnel, it means they are sending out someone like Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, or Randall Cobb instead of Jeremy Ruckert or Nick Bawden. Now, let’s not pretend Ruckert and Bawden are nightmare-inducing playmakers, but they don’t have to be. The numbers speak for themselves. The Jets play their best football when they use heavy packages. Ruckert and Bawden are better at their positions than the Jets’ receivers are at theirs.

New York simply doesn’t have the talent at wide receiver to make things happen with three receivers on the field. In those situations, teams are double-teaming Garrett Wilson and easily locking down the other two receivers in man-to-man. This is why the Jets are so poor with 11 personnel.

But when the Jets use 12 personnel or 21 personnel, things open up for the Jets in both phases.

In the run game, the Jets tend to be more effective when they have another blocker on the field instead of a third wide receiver. This doesn’t necessarily have to be the case for every team – some offenses run the ball more effectively when the box is lighter and the defense is spread out – but the Jets seem to run better with more big-bodied blockers on the field.

New York’s running backs are averaging 4.4 yards per carry with either 12 or 21 personnel on the field, which ranks seventh-best, but with 11 personnel on the field, the Jets’ running backs are gaining only 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks second-worst.

Breece Hall found his only rushing success against Houston when there were two tight ends on the field. He ran for 30 yards on four carries with 12 personnel compared to 10 yards on six carries with other packages.

You can see the impact of 12 personnel on this 13-yard carry by Hall.

Jeremy Ruckert does a decent enough job pinning the defensive end inside while Kenny Yeboah pulls out to the second level and leads the way with a great open-field block.

Hall also had a 15-yard run with 12 personnel on the field, this time with Yeboah on the back side and Ruckert on the front side rather than both tight ends lining up together.

Ruckert is the cog that makes it all happen. He does a fantastic job of assisting Billy Turner with pinning the defensive end inside and then climbs to kick out the second-level defender.

While both tight ends didn’t contribute to that play, the presence of a tight end on both sides of the line is what matters. The Jets could have run the same play with an 11 personnel package, placing a tightly-flexed wide receiver in Ruckert’s shoes, and the play probably would not have worked. By opting to call more 12/21 personnel and less 11 personnel, the Jets are giving more snaps to their best blockers, and it is creating more opportunities for Hall to run behind Ruckert (or another TE/FB) instead of a wide receiver.

Heavy personnel packages are also helping to open up the Jets’ passing game. When offenses trot out 12 personnel or 21 personnel, defenses often opt to remove a defensive back in favor of a linebacker. That decreases the amount of speed in the secondary and creates mismatches the Jets can exploit. It also helps set up the play-action game, as the presence of an extra blocker on offense prompts the defense into thinking a run play is more likely.

On this play, Zach Wilson hits Tyler Conklin up the seam for 20 yards, thanks to many of the advantages laid out in the previous paragraph.

Firstly, the Texans have three linebackers on the field and only four defensive backs. This allows Conklin to get matched up against a linebacker, as Jeremy Ruckert (who lines up next to Conklin) takes up the cornerback on Conklin’s side. In addition, the Jets’ play-action fake causes the linebacker on Conklin to bite down, which helps Conklin get vertical separation.

Having two tight ends on the field was also vital to opening up Randall Cobb’s slump-breaking touchdown reception.

First, the Jets once again catch the Texans with three linebackers on the field, which reduces the overall speed in coverage. Then, Hackett dials up a fantastic route concept between Yeboah and Ruckert, who align beside one another. Ruckert runs a post to clear out the right-side cornerback. Yeboah runs to the middle and executes a subtle rub on the middle-of-the-field linebacker who is assigned to pick up Cobb’s crossing route, giving him no chance to catch Cobb. The combination of the tight ends’ routes is what leaves Cobb wide open for the score.

The advantages presented by heavy personnel packages have worked wonders for Zach Wilson, who plays like a star when the Jets place those packages on the field. Check out his dazzling production with 12 and 21 personnel this season:

Zach Wilson with 12 personnel: 32 for 52, 493 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (105.7 passer rating, 9.5 Y/A)

Zach Wilson with 21 personnel: 18 for 24, 242 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (106.6 passer rating, 10.1 Y/A)

Wilson is one of the better quarterbacks in football when throwing out of a heavy personnel package. Here are some of his combined numbers when the Jets have either 12 or 21 personnel on the field, and where they rank among 31 qualified quarterbacks (min. 40 attempts):

Passer rating: 106.0 (9th)

Yards per attempt: 9.7 (5th)

EPA per dropback: 0.09 (14th)

Success rate: 51.8% (14th)

To boot, Wilson has accomplished all of that despite taking pressure on 45.9% of his dropbacks in 12 or 21 personnel, the second-highest rate among qualifiers. He is getting protected just as poorly in these situations as usual, and yet, he is still performing at a solid level. This shows that Wilson doesn’t necessarily need pristine protection to thrive – he just needs the right passing concepts to suit his skill set.

Simply put, Wilson is a good quarterback when the Jets have one of these packages on the field. The problem is that we don’t see him in these situations often enough. The Jets had 12 or 21 personnel on the field for only 85 of Wilson’s 424 dropbacks this season (20%). That’s one out of every five plays, and only about eight plays per game.

Most of Wilson’s action has come with 11 personnel on the field, and it’s there where he struggles. Wilson ranks 33rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in both passer rating (67.4) and EPA per dropback (-0.41) when throwing out of 11 personnel, and yet, the Jets have had 11 personnel on the field for 310 of Wilson’s 424 dropbacks (73%).

It’s blatantly obvious that New York should commit to being a heavy-package team whenever Wilson is on the field. It was blatantly obvious after a handful of games, and yet, Hackett did not adjust accordingly until Week 14. That’s an extremely troubling indictment of Hackett’s abilities as an offensive coordinator. Nonetheless, there are still four games of Wilson left on the schedule, so better late than never.

Some might argue that the Jets’ high usage rate of 11 personnel and low usage rate of 12/21 personnel is due to the game scripts New York has faced. The Jets have spent the vast majority of the season trailing on the scoreboard, which often puts them into passing mode for much of the second half.

Theoretically, this should prompt them to use more three-receiver sets since they are aiming to move the ball as quickly as possible while trailing. More wide receivers, more speed. Plus, a big part of the appeal with 12 personnel is how it sets up play action, and play action becomes a non-threat when a team enters obvious passing mode.

While that theory is reasonable, it’s debunked by the fact that there are plenty of other losing-record teams who have faced similar game scripts as the Jets but have still managed to build their offense around other packages besides 11 personnel.

Here are just a few examples:

6-7 Atlanta Falcons: 2nd in 12p (40%), 1st in 21p (23%), 32nd in 11p (17%)

5-8 Tennessee Titans: 4th in 12p (30%), 26th in 11p (54%)

3-10 New England Patriots: 1st in 12p (41%), 28th in 11p (47%)

Now, I’m obviously not saying that anybody should want to replicate the lowly offenses of the Falcons, Titans, or Patriots. I’m just using these teams to show that the Jets’ constant trailing is not an excuse for them using so much 11 personnel and so little 12 or 21 personnel. They rank where they rank by choice, and there is nothing stopping them from achieving a personnel-package balance that better suits their team.

The balance that Hackett struck against Houston makes plenty of sense as the Jets’ ideal personnel distribution going forward. Their 41% usage rate of 11 personnel against Houston would rank as the third-lowest rate among all teams in the 2023 regular season, ahead of only Atlanta (17%) and San Francisco (36%). This number allows the Jets to allocate more than half of their reps to heavier personnel packages, which are proven to be a better fit for both the Jets’ run game and the Wilson-led passing game.

I would argue that the Jets should try going even lower than 41%, as the difference between their 11 personnel success and their 12/21 personnel success is just that drastic to the point where it would be warranted. But the Houston plan represents a fair middle ground between the Jets’ typical preferences and an extreme heavy-package offense such as Atlanta’s.

Hopefully, for the sake of Zach Wilson and everyone on the Jets’ offense, Hackett’s personnel decisions against Houston are a sign of things to come rather than a mere one-off. The Jets’ offense finally looked like it was designed based on the strengths and weaknesses of the roster.

[jetsons]

Does nania get paid by the “word”? 🙄

[jbt]

they have now incorporated the forward pass into their offense.  We we are out of the 50's and into the 60's.  Might be a couple of years before we get this looking like a current NFL offense should look

[CanadaSteve]

Great breakdown.  This is an example of what sets apart some of the coaches/coordinators in the league.  Just like how things have to slow down for a QB to 'get it,' coaches/coordinators need to see results 'faster.'  They need to see that the personnel they have isn't working for the play calls they want to make.  You need to let go of your ego faster and 'take what teams will give you.'   

[BroadwayJoe12]

Started calling the good plays, did he. 

[TheClashFan]

Well, when your OL stinks, having an extra blocker in the form of a second TE or a FB would seem like a logical way to make things better. Also probably simplifies things for ZW.

 

[jetswinbaby!]

Yes...

He stopped calling the plays...

[JiFtheOracle]

He called the good play, ya'll!!!

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, jetsons said:

Does nania get paid by the “word”? 🙄

I consider your post at least borderline hate speech. 

[derp]

Good change. Hopefully next year the Jets can upgrade at WR2 but still use more 12 personnel.

[Bungaman]

.

[JetPotato]

One game.

It's almost as if the other team might not have been prepared for these rarely used packages. 

I wonder if other defenses can adjust in kind. 🙄

There no magic lever to pull. Need better players and coaches on O. Period.

[greenwichjetfan]

Yes, quite the revelation to get Lazard/Cobb/Brownlee off the field in favor someone that can help the depleted OL block or confuse the D and go out for a pass. 

[All Gas, No Gase]

37 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I consider your post at least borderline hate speech. 

You’re not going to elaborate what you mean?

[Beerfish]

People on here have been calling for the 12 package from very early in the season when it was apparent that our oline could not hold up and that we were getting nothing from WR2 let alone WR3.

Of Course people were calling for Ruckert over Uzomoah at about the same time as well.

 

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

This shows that Wilson doesn’t necessarily need pristine protection to thrive – he just needs the right passing concepts to suit his skill set.

[Barry McCockinner]

7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People on here have been calling for the 12 package from very early in the season when it was apparent that our oline could not hold up and that we were getting nothing from WR2 let alone WR3.

Of Course people were calling for Ruckert over Uzomoah at about the same time as well.

 

Better late than never? 

 

[Warfish]

That's an awful lot of words for the author to say "I was right about everything!  See how smart I am, I had the answers all along!".

[Jet_Engine1]

10 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

People on here have been calling for the 12 package from very early in the season when it was apparent that our oline could not hold up and that we were getting nothing from WR2 let alone WR3.

Of Course people were calling for Ruckert over Uzomoah at about the same time as well.

 

You just rewrote that monstrosity of an article in 1/64th the words. Thank you.

 

Jesus, does Nania have a proofreader or editor? 

[T0mShane]

The trend has been to use a big WR in the slot, making it a de facto 12 package, but Davis’ retirement pushed Lazard out to WR2, which screwed the whole pooch. Hackett tried paring down Rodgers’ hand-designed system for Zach and ultimately seemed to scrap it a few weeks ago when Zach got benched. They were using Duane Brown as the move tight end, which seems to have worked, but Boyle kept missing downfield targets. I don’t think it’ll confound teams moving forward unless Breece Hall starts peeling off long runs again. 

[Larz]

I was thinking about maybe Uzomah being out was addition by subtraction.  
 

 

[Beerfish]

29 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Better late than never? 

 

As far as making adjustments in game plans and obvious personnel moves the jets are like a cruise ship trying to turn around to go in the other direction.