Jets already locked in between picks 6-8, and may pick #8 no matter what they do vs. NE?

[Sperm Edwards]

I’ve seen it posted we can pick as low as #12 with a win, and as high as #5 with a loss. Factoring in SOS as the first tie breaker, it seems our highest slot is #6 - which we may not even control - and lowest is #8.

Based on https://www.tankathon.com/nfl:

Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8.

Jets can’t pick higher than #6:

Assume Jets lose and all 3 teams currently at 5-11 win. Jets would leapfrog 2 of those 3 because we still have an easier SOS.

The Giants, with a win, would probably have the same SOS as the Jets with another loss to NE (seems that close without doing the math). Jets won head to head (the next tie breaker), giving the Giants the higher pick. IOW the Jets can’t pick ahead of the NYG no matter what happens this weekend.

With a Jets loss and a 4-way tie at 6-11 the Jets would pick 6th.

***

Jets may not control their own slot no matter what they do on Sunday:

As just noted above we can’t leapfrog the Giants if we lose and they win, and we also can’t get leapfrogged by any current 7-win teams even if we win and they all lose.

The only teams the Jets can leapfrog are the 5-11 Chargers and 5-11 Titans. If the Chargers and Titans both lose this weekend, they’ll of course both still pick ahead of the Jets.

If the Chargers and Titans both lose, then the Jets pick 8th whether they win or lose (or tie) against New England.

Losing just to make NE’s pick lower?:

A Jets loss to NE could drop NE lower by 1-2 slots…or not at all.

The Chargers and Titans can’t leapfrog NE because of harder SOS thus far (which only gets “harder” still if they lose Sunday, and NE’s SOS gets easier if they beat the Jets).

The Jets-Pats outcome also may not matter if Wash, Ari, and NYG lose out themselves, which seems likely against Dallas, Seattle, and Philadelphia, respectively, even if some starters are rested.

So the Jets-Pats game result might not even change the draft slot for either team no matter who wins. 
 

***caveat: I woke up in the middle of the night, so I’m not on full sleep. Therefore feel free to correct me if I’m off or way off here, lol. I guessed a separation of .003-.005 in SOS (at this stage of the season) represents 1 opponent win/loss, since no one seemed to be separated by less than that. But in fairness I admittedly didn’t add up all the cumulative wins/losses myself, and took this shortcut with the Jets (.507) and Giants (.511), guessing a Jets loss and Giants win would settle both teams’ SOS as a tie at/around .509-ish.

[kevinc855]

Thank you for this. Don’t worry the nutjobs will still think act like 6 or 8 is their Super Bowl. Loser mentality.

Beat the Pats, end the streak, get the monkey off your back. Period 

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

OFFENSIVE LINEMAN

[TuscanyTile2]

21 minutes ago, SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN said:

OFFENSIVE LINEMAN

Our linemen are plenty offensive already.

[T0mShane]

Yayyyyy Commanders win. We showed them

[oatmeal]

1 hour ago, kevinc855 said:

Thank you for this. Don’t worry the nutjobs will still think act like 6 or 8 is their Super Bowl. Loser mentality.

Beat the Pats, end the streak, get the monkey off your back. Period 

I love how people who cheer for a perennial loser franchise, call the people who want the historic loser to lose, the losers. 
 

You only will see ass backwardness like this with Jets fans

”Loser mentality”

Your org is synonymous with losing, please stop blaming us fans using logic!

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, kevinc855 said:

Thank you for this. Don’t worry the nutjobs will still think act like 6 or 8 is their Super Bowl. Loser mentality.

Beat the Pats, end the streak, get the monkey off your back. Period 

I believe that beating the Pats locks the Pats into the #2 pick, which makes that job supremely attractive, which probably results in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. It would result in replacing the monkey on our backs with more monkeys.

[neckdemon]

@Sperm Edwards

why couldnt atlanta, chicago and vegas leapfrog us? they all have a much easier strength of schedule. if we win and they lose they all go ahead of us. the vikings would depend on what happens this week with all their opponents since we are virtually tied in sos. i think giants are close enough where it's possible we could leapfrog them depending on what happens, but that won't matter really because it's highly unlikely any of the teams above us in the draft order win. 

so reiterate.......LOSE THIS WEEK YOU PATHETIC SH*TS!!!!!

if we win we can pick as low as 12. most likely is 10

if we lose we can pick as high as 5, most likely is 8

 

here is a good explanation:

 

[doitny]

if what Herm said is true and its only a difference of 2 spots then lets end this streak. lets not have the HC we hate the most and who gave us a big F.U and left us for a division rival not have this streak still in take when he retires.

 

[neckdemon]

2 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Thank you for this. Don’t worry the nutjobs will still think act like 6 or 8 is their Super Bowl. Loser mentality.

Beat the Pats, end the streak, get the monkey off your back. Period 

beating the pats when they suck ass means nothing. it will give us a worse pick and make them better. loser mentality is being excited about beating the toughest guy in schools ass when has has a broken arm

[doitny]

19 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

@Sperm Edwards

why couldnt atlanta, chicago and vegas leapfrog us? they all have a much easier strength of schedule. if we win and they lose they all go ahead of us. the vikings would depend on what happens this week with all their opponents since we are virtually tied in sos. i think giants are close enough where it's possible we could leapfrog them depending on what happens, but that won't matter really because it's highly unlikely any of the teams above us in the draft order win. 

so reiterate.......LOSE THIS WEEK YOU PATHETIC SH*TS!!!!!

if we win we can pick as low as 12. most likely is 10

if we lose we can pick as high as 5, most likely is 8

 

here is a good explanation:

 

you know what, your right. looking at that board again we are 507 SOS. Atlanta and others have around 423, 463, 489. there is no way one we get a lower SOS that much to get lower than that on one game. 

[Creepy Lurker]

49 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yayyyyy Commanders win. We showed them

It was so huge for the clearly strong culture of this team. 

[kevinc855]

34 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I believe that beating the Pats locks the Pats into the #2 pick, which makes that job supremely attractive, which probably results in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. It would result in replacing the monkey on our backs with more monkeys.

Drake may is Zach Wilson  2.0

please him new  England 

[doitny]

3 minutes ago, doitny said:

you know what, your right. looking at that board again we are 507 SOS. Atlanta and others have around 423, 463, 489. there is no way one we get a lower SOS that much to get lower than that on one game. 

even though the teams ahead of us are all playing 8-8 teams and a loss would make them 9-8 and NE would be 4-13 if we beat them i dont know if are SOS get get lower than some of those teams.

 

[neckdemon]

9 minutes ago, doitny said:

you know what, your right. looking at that board again we are 507 SOS. Atlanta and others have around 423, 463, 489. there is no way one we get a lower SOS that much to get lower than that on one game. 

the best outcome for the jets is to lose this game, beating the depleted sh*t team that the pats are now does nothing to erase all the years we got curbstomped by them with brady. some people seem to have ptsd over that, and would rather see us win this week which will just weaken our draft position while strengthening theirs. idc about beating the pats when they suck. it means nothing. 

[OilfieldJet]

7 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

the best outcome for the jets is to lose this game, beating the depleted sh*t team that the pats are now does nothing to erase all the years we got curbstomped by them with brady. some people seem to have ptsd over that, and would rather see us win this week which will just weaken our draft position while strengthening theirs. idc about beating the pats when they suck. it means nothing. 

Brady has nothing to do with the last 3 years. I’ll take the win.

[Ghost]

We can’t beat our dicks with this offense. Zappe is gonna kill us. 

[The Crusher]

We should rest our starters for next years playoffs. 

[jamesr]

the best outcome for the jets is to lose this game, beating the depleted sh*t team that the pats are now does nothing to erase all the years we got curbstomped by them with brady. some people seem to have ptsd over that, and would rather see us win this week which will just weaken our draft position while strengthening theirs. idc about beating the pats when they suck. it means nothing. 

How about beating them when WE suck?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[TuscanyTile2]

31 minutes ago, Ghost said:

We can’t beat our dicks with this offense. Zappe is gonna kill us. 

I don't think we ever got a "Zippy vs Zappe" matchup and I guess we never will.

[TuscanyTile2]

15 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

We should rest our starters for next years playoffs. 

For the 2025 playoffs.

[68JET11]

55 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Drake may is Zach Wilson  2.0

please him new  England 

OK, I'll laugh now...

[Warfish]

Objectively, the Pats beating us is the best outcome. Hurts their pick perhaps costing them a shot at the top 2 QB’s. Improves our pick where perhaps we don’t lose out on a top OT or WR.

A Jets win, on the other hand, may provide the current regime, and frustrated fans, some minor psychological solace in the short term. And it may annoy Bellicheck to lose to us in what may be his final game as a Pats Coach.

I’m not gonna attack anyone for wanting to see either outcome, I understand the desire in both directions. Root for what you like. We all want the same thing in the end, a Jets Super Bowl.

 

[Jigsaw89]

Dradt a QB until u have one. 

Rodgers will likely be mediocre and once he retires we will return to QB hell.  We aren't getting Tom Bradys 40's out of AR8.

 

MICHAEL PENNIX NEEDS TO BE THE PICK.  

[TBJ]

Super Bowl!

[Adoni Beast]

As much as I would love to beat BB in his (potential) last game as the HC of the NEP...

Drafting between 6th and 8th might not seem that much of a difference but it could be the difference between:

• THE OT we really want vs second rated
• THE WR we really want vs some else
• Ability to trade down with a team looking at trading up for a QB
• NEP drafting 2nd 

Take the loss + increase our draft position + decrease NEPs draft position

[maury77]

"Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8."

Maybe I'm missing something, but the Falcons (.438), Bears (.463), and Vegas (.489) all have a lower SOS than the Jets (.507), thus, if they all had the same record, the Jets would pick last out of the group. Granted, the SOS will change after this weekend's games, but I'm not sure the lowest the Jets can pick is 8. 

[The Crusher]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Objectively, the Pats beating us is the best outcome. Hurts their pick perhaps costing them a shot at the top 2 QB’s. Improves our pick where perhaps we don’t lose out on a top OT or WR.

A Jets win, on the other hand, may provide the current regime, and frustrated fans, some minor psychological solace in the short term. And it may annoy Bellicheck to lose to us in what may be his final game as a Pats Coach.

I’m not gonna attack anyone for wanting to see either outcome, I understand the desire in both directions. Root for what you like. We all want the same thing in the end, a Jets Super Bowl.

 

I’m going to eat a half dozen loaded bake potatos and continue watching all 5 of the Harry Callahan movies Sunday. It will “ Make my day!” 

[k-met57]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’ve seen it posted we can pick as low as #12 with a win, and as high as #5 with a loss. Factoring in SOS as the first tie breaker, it seems our highest slot is #6 - which we may not even control - and lowest is #8.

Based on https://www.tankathon.com/nfl:

Jets can’t pick lower than #8:

We’re the only 6-win team. If we win we’ll be at worst one of four 7-win teams, assuming all of the 7-win teams lose their final games.

2 of the 3 other 7-win teams will still have a harder-enough SOS which puts them behind the Jets no matter what.

Vikings have the same SOS heading into this final week. If the Jets win it will make their SOS easier (via another opponent loss), and if the Vikings lose it will make their cumulative SOS harder (via another opponent win).

So it seems Jets win a SOS tie breaker against any/all other 7-win teams no matter what.

With a Jets win, they still can’t pick any lower than their current slot at #8.

Jets can’t pick higher than #6:

Assume Jets lose and all 3 teams currently at 5-11 win. Jets would leapfrog 2 of those 3 because we still have an easier SOS.

The Giants, with a win, would probably have the same SOS as the Jets with another loss to NE (seems that close without doing the math). Jets won head to head (the next tie breaker), giving the Giants the higher pick. IOW the Jets can’t pick ahead of the NYG no matter what happens this weekend.

With a Jets loss and a 4-way tie at 6-11 the Jets would pick 6th.

***

Jets may not control their own slot no matter what they do on Sunday:

As just noted above we can’t leapfrog the Giants if we lose and they win, and we also can’t get leapfrogged by any current 7-win teams even if we win and they all lose.

The only teams the Jets can leapfrog are the 5-11 Chargers and 5-11 Titans. If the Chargers and Titans both lose this weekend, they’ll of course both still pick ahead of the Jets.

If the Chargers and Titans both lose, then the Jets pick 8th whether they win or lose (or tie) against New England.

Losing just to make NE’s pick lower?:

A Jets loss to NE could drop NE lower by 1-2 slots…or not at all.

The Chargers and Titans can’t leapfrog NE because of harder SOS thus far (which only gets “harder” still if they lose Sunday, and NE’s SOS gets easier if they beat the Jets).

The Jets-Pats outcome also may not matter if Wash, Ari, and NYG lose out themselves, which seems likely against Dallas, Seattle, and Philadelphia, respectively, even if some starters are rested.

So the Jets-Pats game result might not even change the draft slot for either team no matter who wins. 
 

***caveat: I woke up in the middle of the night, so I’m not on full sleep. Therefore feel free to correct me if I’m off or way off here, lol. I guessed a separation of .003-.005 in SOS (at this stage of the season) represents 1 opponent win/loss, since no one seemed to be separated by less than that. But in fairness I admittedly didn’t add up all the cumulative wins/losses myself, and took this shortcut with the Jets (.507) and Giants (.511), guessing a Jets loss and Giants win would settle both teams’ SOS as a tie at/around .509-ish.

the SOS math is not mathing. the jets seem to have the highest SOS of the 7-9 teams, which means if we win we could go to 12?

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Yayyyyy Commanders win. We showed them

we were building the culture.

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, neckdemon said:

@Sperm Edwards

why couldnt atlanta, chicago and vegas leapfrog us? they all have a much easier strength of schedule. if we win and they lose they all go ahead of us. the vikings would depend on what happens this week with all their opponents since we are virtually tied in sos. i think giants are close enough where it's possible we could leapfrog them depending on what happens, but that won't matter really because it's highly unlikely any of the teams above us in the draft order win. 

so reiterate.......LOSE THIS WEEK YOU PATHETIC SH*TS!!!!!

if we win we can pick as low as 12. most likely is 10

if we lose we can pick as high as 5, most likely is 8

 

here is a good explanation:

 

14 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

the SOS math is not mathing. the jets seem to have the highest SOS of the 7-9 teams, which means if we win we could go to 12?

 

Here’s the reason: as I mentioned, I had just awakened hours too early, without enough sleep, when I started looking this up. So I was briefly thinking I was clever, and posted my ignorance for posterity, before falling back asleep.

That’s why.

[Augustiniak]

33 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

As much as I would love to beat BB in his (potential) last game as the HC of the NEP...

Drafting between 6th and 8th might not seem that much of a difference but it could be the difference between:

• THE OT we really want vs second rated
• THE WR we really want vs some else
• Ability to trade down with a team looking at trading up for a QB
• NEP drafting 2nd 

Take the loss + increase our draft position + decrease NEPs draft position

If the jets were in the qb hunt in round 1, i could see a huge difference between 6 and 8 and every slot.  But since they’re going OL, the main difference is that if they wind up 6th, they have a much better shot at a top 2 LT, since I believe at least the giants (and probably NE) aren’t going OL.  I think the giants go best wr and pats go qb.  So picking 6th, that sets the jets up to get that LT.  

But since they’re probably 8th in this scenario, they’re probably going to lose out on the 2 LTs b/c Tenn and LA need OL badly.  So i think the consolation prize here is the best RT. 

[SickJetFan]

and to think just a few years ago we only had to endure a 16 game season. 

[slats]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I believe that beating the Pats locks the Pats into the #2 pick, which makes that job supremely attractive, which probably results in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. It would result in replacing the monkey on our backs with more monkeys.

If only the Jets once had a #2 pick. They’d be on the championship track right now. 

[PS17]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

If only the Jets once had a #2 pick. They’d be on the championship track right now. 

Never want a number two pick again, ever!