Conference Championships: betting lines and props for this weekend

[Dcat]

I'll use DraftKings for the current lines as of 1/23 10 am (slight differences among the many books):

AFCCG:
+3.5 KCC   44.5   BAL -3.5 
KCC ML +150
BAL ML  -180

NFCCG:
+7 DET   51   SFO -7
DET ML + 260
SFO ML  - 325

[Dcat]

Team total lines:
BAL > 23.5  -118
BAL > 24.5  +110
KCC  > 19.5  -130
KCC > 20.5  +100

DET > 20.5  -125
DET > 21.5  -105
SFO > 29.5  -112
SFO > 30.5  +114

[Dcat]

AFCCG

Passing TDs:
Jackson > 1.5  +135
Mahomes > 1.5   -120

Passing Yards:
Jackson > 211.5  -115
Mahomes > 242.5 -115

Rushing yards:
Jackson > 62.5 -120
Edwards > 40.5 -110
Hill > 32.5 -110
Pacheco > 64.5  -115
Mahomes > 25.5  -115

Receptions:
Flowers > 4.5  -115
Bateman > 2.5  +135
Hill > 2.5  +145
OBJ > 1.5  -190
Pacheco > 3.5 +124
Rice > 6.5   +110
Kelce > 5.5  -145
Likely  no line
Andrews  no line

Rec yards:
Flowers > 47.5  -120
Bateman > 23.5  -120
Hill > 12.5  -120
OBJ > 22.5  -115
Pacheco > 17.5  -110
Rice > 60.5   -115
Kelce > 61.5  -115
Likely  no line
Andrews  no line

[Dcat]

NFCCG

Passing TDs:
Goff > 1.5  -110
Purdy > 1.5   -195

Passing Yards:
Goff > 263.5  -115
Purdy > 274.5 -115

Rushing yards:
Gibbs > 47.5 -115
Monty > 45.5 -115
CMC > 86.5  -115

Receptions:
St. Brown > 7.5  +105
Montgomery > 1.5  +135
Gibbs > 3.5  +100
J Williams > 2.5  -110
Reynolds > 2.5  -150
LaPorta > 4.5   -150
CMC > 4.5  -125
Aiyuk > 5.5  +120
Kittle > 4.5  +105
Samuel  no line

Rec yards:
St. Brown > 82.5  -115
Gibbs > 23.5  -115
J Williams > 28.5  -115
Reynolds > 36.5  -115
LaPorta > 46.5   -115
CMC > 36.5  -135
Aiyuk > 79.5  -130
Kittle > 59.5  -115
Samuel  no line

[Trotter]

im leaning lions on the ml

not for the hype or bandwagon or even sentimental to see them get to the sb but more about Purdy.

He seemed a bit off to me last week. The weather, week off, possibly but he just seems due for a game where he has a few turnovers and just doesn't have it. The Lions D could be the difference

Of course I reserve the right to change this and end up betting the 9ers minus 20 but for now that is where I am at.

[Dcat]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

im leaning lions on the ml

not for the hype or bandwagon or even sentimental to see them get to the sb but more about Purdy.

He seemed a bit off to me last week. The weather, week off, possibly but he just seems due for a game where he has a few turnovers and just doesn't have it. The Lions D could be the difference

Of course I reserve the right to change this and end up betting the 9ers minus 20 but for now that is where I am at.

I placed a few with the opening lines the other day, plus a couple today:

Goff over 1.5 passing TDs.  -110 1U.
Ravens TT > 24.5  +110  .75U
Ravens TT > 23.5  -118  .75U
Chiefs TT > 20.5  +100  .75U
BAL/KCC > 44.5  -110 1.5U
CMC > 36.5 rec yds  -115  .75U
 

[Skeet Ulrich]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

im leaning lions on the ml

not for the hype or bandwagon or even sentimental to see them get to the sb but more about Purdy.

He seemed a bit off to me last week. The weather, week off, possibly but he just seems due for a game where he has a few turnovers and just doesn't have it. The Lions D could be the difference

Of course I reserve the right to change this and end up betting the 9ers minus 20 but for now that is where I am at.

Purdy can't throw a wet ball. He was horrible vs the Browns early in the season, same conditions. Lions defense is very exploitable in the secondary. If Deebo doesn't play the Lions are a very live dog.

 

[Green Ghost]

7 hours ago, Trotter said:

im leaning lions on the ml

not for the hype or bandwagon or even sentimental to see them get to the sb but more about Purdy.

He seemed a bit off to me last week. The weather, week off, possibly but he just seems due for a game where he has a few turnovers and just doesn't have it. The Lions D could be the difference

Of course I reserve the right to change this and end up betting the 9ers minus 20 but for now that is where I am at.

Lions and Chiefs tease jumps out at me right away, but it’s early… I could change my mind 2-3 times before Sunday afternoon.

[Fibonacci]

Leaning towards Chiefs +3.5 and Lions +7. Feels like an Underdog type of Sunday. 

[Dcat]

Full practice for Mark Andrews. Getting him back should move the line a little.  

Frankly, IMO (FWIW), The Ravens should be favored by at least 8 and a little more with Andrews starting.  

I don't understand why the line is at 3 or 3.5.  

Does not pass smell test. 
Does not pass eyeball test.
Doesn't sound right.
Doesn't feel right.
Result probably leave a bad taste in my mouth as well. 
If I trusted this game, I'd go Ravens.  But all 5 of my senses say watch out.

 

[playtowinthegame]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

I don't understand why the line is at 3 or 3.5.

Playoff Chiefs are different. Playoff Lamar Jackson hasn't been that great either until he played the overachieving Houston Texans in the Wild Card. Let's see what Lamar does vs Spags D this week. I'm taking the Chiefs ML. I'm confident in that pick. 

[Dcat]

OK...  was hoping for a better line, but I'm going with Lions + points (right now 7...   7.5 would be a lot better).  I'll put .75U on that now.  If the line changes giving Lions more, I'd consider another dip.

[Dcat]

On 1/23/2024 at 12:03 PM, Trotter said:

im leaning lions on the ml

Just did this:  0.5U on Detroit ML +285.  And above, Det +7 0.5U. 

Hope the line moves, both ML and spread, towards 49ers.  I want better odds before another dip.

[Trotter]

51 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Just did this:  0.5U on Detroit ML +270.  And above, Det +7 0.5U. 

Hope the line moves, both ML and spread, towards 49ers.  I want better odds before another dip.

Best if luck

i am prob jumping in today.

lions ml as well

[playtowinthegame]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

OK...  was hoping for a better line, but I'm going with Lions + points (right now 7...   7.5 would be a lot better).  I'll put .75U on that now.  If the line changes giving Lions more, I'd consider another dip.

I can't figure this game out yet. Maybe it's just as simple as taking the 49ers at home. Goff is 0-5 vs the 49ers in his last 5 games as a starter; 4 of those were with the Rams, and the most recent was with the Lions in week 1 of 2021. If you want to take the Lions, then perhaps adjust the spread to Lions +8.5. Right now at DraftKings Lions +8.5 is -132. You'd be 4-1 with a Goff quarterbacked team +8.5 in his last 5 starts. 

Goff vs the 49ers in last 5 games

2019 - Week 6: Rams 7 49ers 20 --> Lost by 13
2019 - Week 16: Rams 31 49ers 34 --> Lost by 3
2020 - Week 6: Rams 16 49ers 24 --> Lost by 8
2020 - Week 12: Rams 20 49ers 23 --> Lost by 3
2021 - Week 1: Lions 33 49ers 41 --> Lost by 8

 

[bitonti]

Losing Joe thuney really screws the chiefs. I haven't bet yet but leaning bal 

[playtowinthegame]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Losing Joe thuney really screws the chiefs. I haven't bet yet but leaning bal 

 

Mahomes giveth to you (divisional round) and he taketh from you when you bet against him in the AFC Championship game. 

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, playtowinthegame said:

 

Mahomes giveth to you (divisional round) and he taketh from you when you bet against him in the AFC Championship game. 

Well that's the thing it's obvious the league wants Taylor to be at the super bowl 

[Larz]

[Dcat]

Big news for the favorites:  Mark Andrews will play.  And it's looking like Debo Samuel will be good to go as well.  

 

[Dcat]

just added Kittle 60+ (-125) and 70+ (+125).   A dry handed Purdy to carve up the middle of Lions defense with Kittle, CMC and Aiyuk.

[Lupz27]

Mahomes over 271.5 Rushing and Passing yards combined.

Purdy over 300 yards +125

J Gibbs over 74.5 rushing receiving combined.

Chiefs ML

Lions +7.5

[Dcat]

-4.2 units for AFCCG.  Would have been worse, but a few props and marketing promos came through and that's about it.  meh.

On to NFCCG.

 

[Trotter]

6 minutes ago, Dcat said:

-4.2 units for AFCCG.  Would have been worse, but a few props and marketing promos came through and that's about it.  meh.

On to NFCCG.

 

Rough start for me

luckkly caught a few dollars on college bb

letd go lions

bunch of anytime td props in this one

[Trotter]

Ok Williams anytime td is a nice start

ill throw a few on him for acsecond

[Dcat]

7 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Ok Williams anytime td is a nice start

ill throw a few on him for acsecond

wow... very nice.  I was wishing that was Gibbs, who I have for a score.

[Dcat]

42 minutes ago, Trotter said:

luckkly caught a few dollars on college bb

not me.  But I've got 1.25U on New Mexico -8 in Albuquerque at The Pit.  Big number but they dominate at The Pit.  

[Trotter]

5 minutes ago, Dcat said:

not me.  But I've got 1.25U on New Mexico -8 in Albuquerque at The Pit.  Big number but they dominate at The Pit.  

Did you have mcadfery?

of course I have jusecyk at +1100

[Dcat]

5 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Did you have mcadfery?

of course I have jusecyk at +1100

no.  It was like -250 or something.    I've got a friend who does all sorts of high odds TDs like that Jusyzyky one.  Jennings, Agholar, stuff like that all the time.  He profits in the long haul. Fact.

 

[Dcat]

and there's my anytime Gibbs TD.  So there's  that!  I got one.  Keep it going Lions!  Looking good.

[Larz]

On 1/25/2024 at 8:36 PM, Larz said:

2/2

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, Dcat said:

-4.2 units for AFCCG.  Would have been worse, but a few props and marketing promos came through and that's about it.  meh.

On to NFCCG.

 

Yeah Ravens never showed up sucks.

[Trotter]

I’m sensing Laporte here and I don’t have him

[Dcat]

At least they covered.  Minimizes the rest of the pain.

[NYJCAP2]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

2/2

I think the best thing from today is the refs did not insert themselves into the games.

No controversy, the teams won and lost the games.