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Chiefs vs 49ers betting lines, props and more


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9 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Opening line on DK was:
KC spread: +2.5
SFO: -2.5
KC ML: +115

Just grabbed KC ML at +115, 1U.  That line will likely drop.  Get it while you can.

edit:  KC ML has dropped to -102 on DK.  Still +105 on MGM, on which I dropped an another unit.  . Early money coming in hard on KC.  The Swifty bettors have arrived.
 

I’m going big on KC.

Mahomes and points against Purdy? 

I Want Some GIF by youngest media

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14 hours ago, Dcat said:

Opening line on DK was:
KC spread: +2.5
SFO: -2.5
KC ML: +115

Just grabbed KC ML at +115, 1U.  That line will likely drop.  Get it while you can.

edit:  KC ML has dropped to -102 on DK.  Still +105 on MGM, on which I dropped a another unit.  . Early money coming in hard on KC.  The Swifty bettors have arrived.
 

KC has Mahomes who is transcendental, but I don't think they are a great team. They had a good path to the SB especially getting to play a one-dimensional team in Baltimore. KC may be the popular choice because of Mahomes but I think SF will ride the momentum and confidence from yesterday to a victory.  

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8 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

KC has Mahomes who is transcendental, but I don't think they are a great team. They had a good path to the SB especially getting to play a one-dimensional team in Baltimore. KC may be the popular choice because of Mahomes but I think SF will ride the momentum and confidence from yesterday to a victory.  

but that will make Taylor cry.  I agree about Mahomes/chiefs. But I trust Mahomes a lot more than Purdy, tbh, notwithstanding Purdy's great weapons, and that's why I'm on KC again this year.  Both defenses can get the job done as well.  I trust the QB and even the HC more.    Last year I wore my son's old Holmes Jersey at the party.  No party this year after getting punched in the balls by Covid, but I'll put that jersey on again soon.

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I sort of like SF to win and if current trend continues, I should be able to get points and + on the money line. 

And to your point in other thread, will be doing a lot of prop bet unders on game day

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This was in the wrong thread.  Just brought it here.   
So here's what I saw happening last night into this morning.  If you plan on betting 'over' props for rushing or receiving, the lines have already moved against you.  Last night and this morning I bet the overs I liked as the lines for ALL of them crept up by 2-4 yards (i.e.  Kelce jumped from 66.5 to 70.5 rec yards overnight and with more juice to boot).  

But if you plan on betting unders for props or totals, then you might want to wait.. anywhere from 1 to 13 days of waiting, to get the best lines.  Not sure when the balance out will happen.  Outside of any injury changes in the next 2 weeks, the lines should be pretty balanced out by this evening, one would think.    I might be close to done since I'm going overs in my props:

Chiefs ML +115 (placed when line came out) 1U 
Total over 47.5 -110 .75U
KC Team Total > 23.5 -110 .75U
SFO Team Total > 23.5 -115 .75U

CMC > 88.5 rush yds  0.5U
CMC > 35.5 rec yds -120 1U
CMC 50+ alt. rec yds +205 0.25U
Rice > 65.5 rec yds -115  0.75U
Deebo > 56.5 rec yds -115 0.75U
Mahomes > 26.5 rush yds -113 0.5U
Purdy > 11.5 rush yds -105 0.5U
(both QBs do well gaining a few yards when they get flushed from the pocket, which will happen often, I think.)

receptions up next

and there will always be appealing specials at most books, and always winnable, although low bet limits. Won all of those this weekend. It adds up

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Super Bowls typically get off to a slower start and favor a ground game especially when talking about scoring

A pick I like is mahommes anytime at +350 especially in the early going

sN Fran will key on Pacheco and while I have backed juscheck he typically does not get in

So one play for me will be mahommes

mccaffery obviously but you can’t get anything resembling reasonable odds

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3 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

KC has Mahomes who is transcendental, but I don't think they are a great team. They had a good path to the SB especially getting to play a one-dimensional team in Baltimore. KC may be the popular choice because of Mahomes but I think SF will ride the momentum and confidence from yesterday to a victory.  

They have the better QB, the better coach, and the better defense. That's a pretty good combo.

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1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Which one of you psychopaths did this?

 

 

Bettor is rooting for a Purdy injury, followed by a Darnold miracle.  Sure.  For $25, that should be paying at least 3 times as much for that nonsense. And rooting for a QB injury is just disgusting anyway.

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15 hours ago, Dcat said:

This was in the wrong thread.  Just brought it here.   
So here's what I saw happening last night into this morning.  If you plan on betting 'over' props for rushing or receiving, the lines have already moved against you.  Last night and this morning I bet the overs I liked as the lines for ALL of them crept up by 2-4 yards (i.e.  Kelce jumped from 66.5 to 70.5 rec yards overnight and with more juice to boot).  

But if you plan on betting unders for props or totals, then you might want to wait.. anywhere from 1 to 13 days of waiting, to get the best lines.  Not sure when the balance out will happen.  Outside of any injury changes in the next 2 weeks, the lines should be pretty balanced out by this evening, one would think.    I might be close to done since I'm going overs in my props:

Chiefs ML +115 (placed when line came out) 1U 
Chiefs ML +105 (placed 45 minutes afterwards) 1U
Total over 47.5 -110 .75U
KC Team Total > 23.5 -110 .75U
SFO Team Total > 23.5 -115 .75U

CMC > 88.5 rush yds  0.5U
CMC > 35.5 rec yds -120 1U
CMC 50+ alt. rec yds +205 0.25U
Rice > 65.5 rec yds -115  0.75U
Deebo > 56.5 rec yds -115 0.75U
Mahomes > 26.5 rush yds -113 0.5U
Purdy > 11.5 rush yds -105 0.5U
(both QBs do well gaining a few yards when they get flushed from the pocket, which will happen often, I think.)

receptions up next

and there will always be appealing specials at most books, and always winnable, although low bet limits. Won all of those this weekend. It adds up

Great post!  It seems odd to me that the team with the inferior QB is the favorite btw.  I see they've gone from -2.5 to -1.5 right now.  By game time it might be a pick'em or KC will be favored (I'll guess by 1.5)

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  • 2 weeks later...

kc underdogs screams bet me on the ml and so far that has been correct.

part of being a gambler is always looking for angles or trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

I can look at 50-1 shots all day and swear there is something in their past performance that makes them a contender. Of course, more times than not that is simply not the case.

for this game although everything points to the Chiefs, the smartest guy in the room says 9ers are favored for a reason and Vegas always knows.

so right now bet is 9ers minus the points and be miserable as I watch the Chiefs beat them outright.

Still like Mahommes anytime td at +400 though. 

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This has been a big topic all week. Mahomes and a good team versus Purdy and a great team.

The 49ers have 7 all-pros and 2 players who finished in the top 5 in MVP voting.

The Chiefs have 3 all-pros. But they have Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes being an underdog is weird. But, if people think Purdy is a really QB, then maybe. The 49ers are stacked.

I dont’ gamble but if I did…. I won’t bet against Mahomes. 

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16 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

This has been a big topic all week. Mahomes and a good team versus Purdy and a great team.

The 49ers have 7 all-pros and 2 players who finished in the top 5 in MVP voting.

The Chiefs have 3 all-pros. But they have Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes being an underdog is weird. But, if people think Purdy is a really QB, then maybe. The 49ers are stacked.

I dont’ gamble but if I did…. I won’t bet against Mahomes. 

The key drivers over the last 25 years to win playoff games and SB rings is a top 10 scoring D and a top 10 QB. Having only a top 5 QB doesn't get you very far. See Peyton, Brees, Rodgers for most of their careers. Meanwhile, Brady never made it to a SB in a year where he didn't have a top 10 scoring D (most of his SB runs his defenses were top 5 btw).  

The lone outlier to that has been Patrick Mahomes who has been to 3 SBs and won 2 despite not having a top 10 scoring defense in any year till now. This year, he has the #2 scoring defense. So while he's been an underdog and had to go on the road this year (both firsts of his career in the playoffs), they're still winning, and doing so quite comfortably. 

Similar to his first SB run when there were tons of doubters about Andy Reid and the high flying offense, and similar to last year when so many people picked the eagles....barring injury to a key player I just don't see how the Chiefs can lose this coming Sunday. Best QB to ever play and a top 2 scoring D....take that to the bank every single time. 

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10 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

This has been a big topic all week. Mahomes and a good team versus Purdy and a great team.

The 49ers have 7 all-pros and 2 players who finished in the top 5 in MVP voting.

The Chiefs have 3 all-pros. But they have Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes being an underdog is weird. But, if people think Purdy is a really QB, then maybe. The 49ers are stacked.

I dont’ gamble but if I did…. I won’t bet against Mahomes

 

I am leaning towards picking the Chiefs because I like their D and Mahomes is pretty clutch. If the 49ers fall behind early like they did vs the Lions and the Packers they won't come back and win vs the Chiefs. 

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On 1/28/2024 at 8:24 PM, section314 said:

How is SF favored?

Chiefs really have no WRs, and they made it to the SB on the backs of Mahomes and the defense. SF is easily the more complete team, and the last time the Chiefs made it to the big game severely lacking in an offensive position they were blown out.

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11 hours ago, Trotter said:

kc underdogs screams bet me on the ml and so far that has been correct.

part of being a gambler is always looking for angles or trying to be the smartest guy in the room.

I can look at 50-1 shots all day and swear there is something in their past performance that makes them a contender. Of course, more times than not that is simply not the case.

for this game although everything points to the Chiefs, the smartest guy in the room says 9ers are favored for a reason and Vegas always knows.

so right now bet is 9ers minus the points and be miserable as I watch the Chiefs beat them outright.

Still like Mahommes anytime td at +400 though. 

we know what happens to public dogs and if ever there was one it's KC.  About as public as public can be.   

I added kittle > 49.5 1U.  So now I have Kittle, Deebo, CMC all hitting their overs.  

Betting the overs and betting the public dog to win.  What could go wrong?  textbook.

also: MGM has 58% boosts right now. KC +110 boosts up to KC +173.  $50 max.  yeah, +173. It's a nice boost whichever side, total or prop you want.  

 

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13 hours ago, bitonti said:

it feels like Vegas is begging everyone to take KCC which makes me extremely suspicious and want to take the SF points 

Really odd. Can't get a handle on this; pulling for Niners, but sneaky suspicion refs and NFL are invested in Swift/Kelce nonsense.

Did bag a 5 legger parlay; Mahomes, Over both 1.5 TDs and 260.5 yards;  and TDs for CMC, Pacheco and Kelce, 50 to win 540. 

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14 hours ago, bitonti said:

it feels like Vegas is begging everyone to take KCC which makes me extremely suspicious and want to take the SF points 

It certainly does.  I'm on the Chiefs but the books (and evidentally the public ) favor 49ers.  

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I heard one “sharp” earliest in the week say that the NFC was favored in “futures” betting at the beginning of their year, and that they are trying to avoid “middles” as much as they can, and the expctation is that the line will drop more in favor of KC as the week goes on. 

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