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Ideal situation for the Jets


RichardSeymour

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IMO....

Unless Manginibaum thinks one of the QBs on the board is a future 4+ pro-bowler, or that Mario Williams is a future 6+ pro-bowl Dlineman, the ideal circumstance for you guys is a trade down.

The 8-12 range of this draft should be choice for you guys, though you probably want to go no farther.

Draftdaddy has Vernon Davis, Michael Huff, Vince Young, Broderick Bunkley, and Manny Lawson going in that span, and the guys they have pushing that group down there are all at positions of need for you as well (ie. at positions other than long snapper).

By "the draft chart" that's always floating around on the internet, a move down from 4 to 9-12 might net you a high 2nd, or a future 1st, possibly you'd have to bundle in a 4th or a 5th or some such.

It takes two to tango, but there's a decent shot that one of the teams in that range might want to move up for Mario or Brick or a QB.

The Jets have a ton of holes, and a high 2nd in this draft is going to be a Max Jean-Gilles, an Eric Winston, a Richard Marshall, a Demeco Ryans, or a Bobby Carpenter type guy.

Brick Ferguson, or Huff and Winston?

Mario Williams, or Bunkley and Jean-Gilles?

I can conceive where if a QB or Dlineman looks great at 4, you don't accept a trade down.... otherwise if the Jets could move down 4-8 spots, that should be their preferred choice, and they shouldn't be asking a pound of flesh for it.

If I were you guys I'd want as many top 50 guys out of this draft as possible.

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The only thing is, we already have 5 choices in the first 100 picks. That in itself should give us a very good chance to drastically improve the talent level of this team.

If there's a player in the 8-12 range that we are targetting above all others, yes a trade down would be wise, but other wise, I think at this point, staying where we're at, drafting the BPA regardless of need is the way to go.

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I agree with Seymour, and unless the team is thinking QB, I think they will trade down.

An example,for the posters that are begging for Brick/OL...

What's more attractive, Brick and Gilles(possibly @ 29) or W.Justice, Gilles, and another pick in the top 50?

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If D'Brick is gone, then a trade down would be my favorite option. If the Lions have a hard-on for Williams, trading down and picking up their second rounder would be the best possible situation. That would put the Jets in a situation where they could draft Davis, Bunkley, Justice, or (fingers crossed) Cutler, and give them a hairly high second round pick.

If D'Brick is out of the equation, then I must say that I'm much more intrigued by the 6-10 guys than I am the 1-5 guys.

And, welcome back, RS. How's the model-****ing been treatin' ya?

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And about 15 positions in the top 30 slots of your depth chart that are manned by JAGs or worse.

How'd that work out for the 2001 Pats?

Alright not to go that far but I think there's only a certain amount of rookies you can bring in and truly get the most out of them. This Jets team isn't going to be a quick fix and if anyone believes that, then they're mistaken. I want a top guy for this franchise. They've sorely missed a guy like that on the offensive side for quite some time and now we have the opportunity. Does everyone want to miss out on another Sapp or Pace or any of the countless others this franchise has bumbled on?

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I agree RS and I have been saying the same thing. I like Brick, Williams and other top 4 guys as players but do not like spending a top 4 pick on any of them when perhaps we can get a combo of Huff or Davis and a Winston or Capernter. The draft is a crapshoot no matter how sure of a thing you think any of the top 4 players are they are all just a crapshoot and accumulating more high picks just increases your odds of finding a star.

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One more thing extra picks will do for us is to allow us to maybe take a chance on a Lendale White or Sinorice Moss type at 29. If all it is is a hamstring problem then we are getting a top 10 talent at 29. As far as Moss goes we could get a homerun threat this offense needs.

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u know u have to pay these guys.... how can we pay 4 guys in the top 35?

Keeping the #4 pick could be more expensive than #10 + #29 + #35 + #40 combined. It's at least comparable.

Last year #4 - Cedric Benson

After a franchise-record 36-day holdout, Benson signed a five-year deal with the Bears on August 28, 2005. The deal is believed to be worth about $35 million, with somewhere between $17 and $17.5 million of the total guaranteed, according to published reports. (http://www.fantasysports.aol.com/fb/playerProfile.cfm?pid=3388)

Last year #10 - Carlos Rogers

Signed a five-year contract on 8/2/2005. The deal is worth a maximum of $17.45 million over the life of the contract with $11.23 million in bonuses. (http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.asp?sport=NFL&leaguenum=&id=3159)

Last year #29 - Marlin Jackson

Colts signed Marlin Jackson, the 29th pick of the NFL Draft, to a five-year, $6.975 million contract. The deal includes $4.350 million in guarantees (http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.asp?sport=NFL&leaguenum=&id=3175)

Last year #35 – Reggie Brown

The Eagles signed 2nd round draft pick wide receiver Reggie Brown to a 5-year contract that included a $1.8M signing bonus and a $581k option bonus in 2006. Base salaries of $230k, $350k, $450k, $547k and $644k. (home.nc.rr.com/rosmith/eagles/ed05.html)

Summary:

#4 pick: 5 yrs, $35M; $17M guaranteed

#10 pick: 5 yrs, $17.5M; $11.23M guaranteed

#29 pick: 5 yrs, $7M; $4.35M guaranteed

#35 pick: 5 yrs; $4.6M; $2.4M guaranteed

#40 pick (? - assume slightly less than #35) = ~$4M tot; ~$2M guaranteed

--------------

#10 + #29 + #35 + #40 = $33M; $20M guaranteed

#4 pick = $35M; $17M guaranteed

#4 pick costs approx same as (actually a little more than) #10, #29, #35, and #40 combined.

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Keeping the #4 pick could be more expensive than #10 + #29 + #35 + #40 combined. It's at least comparable.

Last year #4 - Cedric Benson

After a franchise-record 36-day holdout, Benson signed a five-year deal with the Bears on August 28, 2005. The deal is believed to be worth about $35 million, with somewhere between $17 and $17.5 million of the total guaranteed, according to published reports. (http://www.fantasysports.aol.com/fb/playerProfile.cfm?pid=3388)

Last year #10 - Carlos Rogers

Signed a five-year contract on 8/2/2005. The deal is worth a maximum of $17.45 million over the life of the contract with $11.23 million in bonuses. (http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.asp?sport=NFL&leaguenum=&id=3159)

Last year #29 - Marlin Jackson

Colts signed Marlin Jackson, the 29th pick of the NFL Draft, to a five-year, $6.975 million contract. The deal includes $4.350 million in guarantees (http://fantasyfootball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.asp?sport=NFL&leaguenum=&id=3175)

Last year #35

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I got two words for you after reading this: trade down!

I love everything about trading down now.

It's been my wish since day one. Let's say it's Brick available at #4. It's either Brick OR

  • #10 pick AND
  • #40 pick AND
  • another $3M/yr that can go towards a proven stud FA. (Don't only look at it only as a $3M/yr FA; it can equally be viewed as getting a $5M/yr FA instead of a $2M/yr FA).

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It's been my wish since day one. Let's say it's Brick available at #4. It's either Brick OR

  • #10 pick AND
  • #40 pick AND
  • another $3M/yr that can go towards a proven stud FA. (Don't only look at it only as a $3M/yr FA; it can equally be viewed as getting a $5M/yr FA instead of a $2M/yr FA).

i have been saying this since the end of the season. when you have a bad team there isn't much benefit in being forced to hand out $20M+ signing bonus there are obviously numerous holes to fill. especially when you are handing that $$ to a completely unproven player.

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u know u have to pay these guys.... how can we pay 4 guys in the top 35?

The Pats paid less for Warren (13), Wilson (36), and Johnson (45) than you did for D-Rob---- way less.

The #4 pick plus 3 veteran minimum guys is going to cost more than 4 guys in the 20-35 range, EASY.

EDIT: Just noticed SE's post. Nicely researched, Sperm.

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It's been my wish since day one. Let's say it's Brick available at #4. It's either Brick OR

  • #10 pick AND
  • #40 pick AND
  • another $3M/yr that can go towards a proven stud FA. (Don't only look at it only as a $3M/yr FA; it can equally be viewed as getting a $5M/yr FA instead of a $2M/yr FA).

Yep, and on a team with as many needs as y'all got that's powerful compelling logic--- it's easy to point to Richard Seymour for the Pats in 2001, but one could just as easilly point to D-Rob for the Jets in 2003---- and a LOT of very valuable guys go in the early 2nd and late 1st.... heck, same draft as Seymour we got Matt Light in the 2nd.

Again, what's better, D'Brick or Winston Justice with Max Jean-Gilles as a 'freebie' AND as SE points out, and extra few mil to go get a nice FA OL next season?

The latter is a heck of a lot of fixin' for the O-line, and only takes the 4th pick.

Now a trade may not be there, in which case you suck it up and take BPA... and if the Jets feel very confident that there's an elite QB at #4, or that Mario Williams is almost can't miss, yeah, go ahead....

But ideally for you....

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Yep, and on a team with as many needs as y'all got that's powerful compelling logic--- it's easy to point to Richard Seymour for the Pats in 2001, but one could just as easilly point to D-Rob for the Jets in 2003---- and a LOT of very valuable guys go in the early 2nd and late 1st.... heck, same draft as Seymour we got Matt Light in the 2nd.

Again, what's better, D'Brick or Winston Justice with Max Jean-Gilles as a 'freebie' AND as SE points out, and extra few mil to go get a nice FA OL next season?

The latter is a heck of a lot of fixin' for the O-line, and only takes the 4th pick.

Now a trade may not be there, in which case you suck it up and take BPA... and if the Jets feel very confident that there's an elite QB at #4, or that Mario Williams is almost can't miss, yeah, go ahead....

But ideally for you....

All true. The NFL version of money ball. But, it takes two to tango. I'm a proponent of trading down, but if the Cards, the Lions, the Rams dont' want to, then you're kinda stuck.

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Great work on the research...

I agree with others on the board...QB is not needed at the 4th, especially if someone at that position usually would ask more than an OLiner from the same draft spot since it is a specialty position. Their agents usually would ask for more money and would hold out more.

If you can't get Brick...i would trade down, and get more picks and more early value.

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