Barring Trade Up, Or Trade Down... The Jet's First Pick Is Fairly Obvious...

[jetswinbaby!]

There seems to be a fairly strong consensus amongst the "experts" that his is a strong WR, OT, QB draft...

There also seems to be a consensus who the top QB's, WR's, and OT's are...

The first 9 picks appear to have some combination of the top 4 QB's, the top 3 WR's, Alt (the top OT), and finally, the top edge rusher...

So, at 10, the Jets will be left with either Bowers (TE), or one of the 3 big OT's (Fuaga, Fashanu, Fautanu) to pick from...

To me, it looks like the Jet's pick is going to be one of these 4 players...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[slats]

Yeah, the consensus is always right. 

[Rhg1084]

If they stay at 10 it’ll probably be a choice btwn Brian Thomas or Bowers and I’m sure they’ll go Bowers.

[K_O_Brien]

10 is no man's land, classic Jets territory. Time to trade up, or down.

[Barry McCockinner]

Dallas Turner falls to 10 and makes us all have explosive diarrhea while the Jets are on the clock.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

2 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

If they stay at 10 it’ll probably be a choice btwn Brian Thomas or Bowers and I’m sure they’ll go Bowers.

Both of these sound like they would be epic busts along the ZW trendline.

#10 for BT would be an embarrassing reach.

Bowers is not a complete TE prospect like Kelce or Gronk or Tony Gonzalez.

He's not going to be stout enough to hold up in the run game, and the Jets are virtually guaranteed to be run-heavy with a strong defense behind a 40y old QB attempting to recover from an Achilles rip.

He may prove to be a good player, but there is no way he dominates in the NFL as easily as he did in college.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

3 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Dallas Turner falls to 10 and makes us all have explosive diarrhea while the Jets are on the clock.

Especially after Clowney is inked in 3 days 🤣

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Yeah, the consensus is always right. 

Dane Brugler was among the "experts" leading the charge with ZW as his "#2 overall prospect".

These guys don't have to be right about anything.

They just have to be employed by high-profile media outlets, and folks will take what they say seriously.

[Beerfish]

Lack of great defensive players hurt us this year.   There is depth in areas we need but would have been nice to have at least 2 or 3 must have D players top 10.

The most polarizing pick will be Bowers, lots of love and lots of hate for this possible pick.

[MR.GANGGREEN28]

Jets get Odunze. Speak it into existence.

[Claymation]

I don't want another Bryan Thomas.

[Larz]

DE is a low key need. Just saying.  They aren’t having Clowney in for tea. 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Both of these sound like they would be epic busts along the ZW trendline.

#10 for BT would be an embarrassing reach.

Bowers is not a complete TE prospect like Kelce or Gronk or Tony Gonzalez.

He's not going to be stout enough to hold up in the run game, and the Jets are virtually guaranteed to be run-heavy with a strong defense behind a 40y old QB attempting to recover from an Achilles rip.

He may prove to be a good player, but there is no way he dominates in the NFL as easily as he did in college.

I don’t think BTJ is an embarrassing reach.  He’s a top 15 guy on both kiper’s and dj’s boards, and that’s in a year with top qbs and wrs.  I think his game is perfect for the nfl.  I like bowers, but i worry about his ultimate impact. He seems like a good receiving running back. 

[nj meadowlands]

The only no-brainer at 10 is in the unlikely event that Joe Alt falls (obviously, MHJ is not falling to 10).

Apart from that happening I could be sold on any combo of OT / WR / TE as well as any combo of staying put / trading up / trading down.

[RoadFan]

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of a couple of free agent signings.  
 

The Jets must find a D’Brickashaw type player.   If they don’t, Jets can expect an injured and/or annoyed 40 year-old QB.  Plus, whatever young QB they draft in the next year or two will be getting sacked left and right when his time comes.  

I understand the “all-in” concept and selecting a WR or TE is flashier.  However, Rodgers has never liked throwing the ball to rookies.  NEVER.   Keeping him upright is more important.  

[Rhg1084]

1 minute ago, RoadFan said:

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of couple of free agent signings.  
 

The Jets must find a D’Brickashaw type player.   If they don’t, Jets can expect an injured and/or annoyed 40 year-old QB.  Plus, whatever young QB they draft in the next year or two will be getting sacked left and right when his time comes.  

I understand the “all-in” concept and selecting a WR or TE is flashier.  However, Rodgers has never liked throwing the ball to rookies.  NEVER.   Keeping him upright is more important.  

Well that’s because the Packers never drafted any rookies for Rodgers to throw to. I’m sure you give him a shiny new toy like Bowers or any of these WRs he’ll gladly utilize them 

[DoubleDown]

As a simple analysis, here is Daniel Jeremiah's final mock draft in 2023 and then the actual 2023 draft results.

MOCK
1. Bryce Young
2. C.J. Stroud
3. Will Anderson Jr.
4. Will Levis
5. Jalen Carter
6. Devon Witherspoon
7. Christian Gonzalez
8. Bijan Robinson
9. Tyree Wilson
10. Nolan Smith

Actual
1. Bryce Young
2. C.J. Stroud
3. Will Anderson Jr.
4. Anthony Richardson
5. Devon Witherspoon
6. Paris Johnson Jr.
7. Tyree Wilson
8. Bijan Robinson
9. Jalen Carter
10. Darnell Wright

Three of the top 10 picks were missing in the mock completely, one of which was the #4 overall pick.  QB Will Levis dropped out of the top 10 completely, and Jalen Carter dropped pretty significantly.

In short, it's a bit of a crapshoot.  There are surprises every year, and quarterbacks change the dynamics quite a bit.  With as many as four QBs projected to go in the top 10 this year, things can shift pretty dramatically if that does not come to fruition.

[RoadFan]

6 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Well that’s because the Packers never drafted any rookies for Rodgers to throw to. I’m sure you give him a shiny new toy like Bowers or any of these WRs he’ll gladly utilize them 

Good point, to an extent.  The narrative that they never drafted WRs isn’t exactly true.   They were usually mid-rounders.  I guess he did start to throw to Christian Watson towards the latter part of the season.  
 

Maybe I should change my wording.  Rodgers is an elitist QB.  Run the wrong route once and you won’t see a target again for weeks.  

[RedBeardedSavage]

1 minute ago, RoadFan said:

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of a couple of free agent signings.  
 

The Jets must find a D’Brickashaw type player.   If they don’t, Jets can expect an injured and/or annoyed 40 year-old QB.  Plus, whatever young QB they draft in the next year or two will be getting sacked left and right when his time comes.  

I understand the “all-in” concept and selecting a WR or TE is flashier.  However, Rodgers has never liked throwing the ball to rookies.  NEVER.   Keeping him upright is more important.  

Generally, I share this sentiment about the tackle situation - offensive line injuries seem incredibly common on this team and I don't want to be foolish and assume both our new tackles in their mid 30's are gonna play the full (or even majority) of snaps.

But this class is somewhat deep at tackle, from what I understand. And if we really liked one of those second-tier prospects, like Kiran Amegadjie from Yale or Patrick Paul from Houston, I'm comfortable moving up on day 2 to land one.

All of that being said, it makes sense to see what's available @ 10.

Rookie receivers actually have performed well as of late, and Rodgers, for his whole career, never got a top 10 pick rookie receiver. 

I think for sure we should be adding a tackle and a receiver with our first two picks, it might just require some movement - perhaps down in the first for a tackle or into the second for a tackle, whereas the real prize @ receiver is seemingly bunched up amongst the top 3 (maybe 4 guys if you add Brian Thomas jr).

All the more reason to sit @ 10 and see if a receiver drops - if one of them doesn't, that likely means an Edge or Corner is there that could entice a trade-up.

[Gaffneycatch81]

34 minutes ago, jetswinbaby! said:

There seems to be a fairly strong consensus amongst the "experts" that his is a strong WR, OT, QB draft...

There also seems to be a consensus who the top QB's, WR's, and OT's are...

The first 9 picks appear to have some combination of the top 4 QB's, the top 3 WR's, Alt (the top OT), and finally, the top edge rusher...

So, at 10, the Jets will be left with either Bowers (TE), or one of the 3 big OT's (Fuaga, Fashanu, Fautanu) to pick from...

To me, it looks like the Jet's pick is going to be one of these 4 players...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fairly obvious … between 4 guys?? In other words, not so obvious …

[#27TheDominator]

7 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Good point, to an extent.  The narrative that they never drafted WRs isn’t exactly true.   They were usually mid-rounders.  I guess he did start to throw to Christian Watson towards the latter part of the season.  
 

Maybe I should change my wording.  Rodgers is an elitist QB.  Run the wrong route once and you won’t see a target again for weeks.  I 

I think he actually doesn't like rookies.  Davante Adams was a mid-2nd but he didn't really start picking up until year 3.  Jordy Nelson a very early 2nd and he didn't have a really good year until year 4.  Randall Cobb was a late 2nd and he was doing well by year 2.  I remember them saying that he was literally giving MVS the silent treatment for weeks his rookie year, which makes it strange that people think MVS will be the big signing.

[Warfish]

26 minutes ago, Larz said:

DE is a low key need. 

So the JJ and McDonald picks were failures then? 

Because they should be our starting DE's and playing the bulk of the plays in those spots as #1 picks.

Jeez, you're such a JD hater, maybe have faith in his brilliant picks eh?

[DoubleDown]

21 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of a couple of free agent signings.

Especially considering that both Smith and Moses are not under contract beyond 2024.

[neckdemon]

After signing Williams bowers should be the pick

[#27TheDominator]

19 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

As a simple analysis, here is Daniel Jeremiah's final mock draft in 2023 and then the actual 2023 draft results.

MOCK
1. Bryce Young
2. C.J. Stroud
3. Will Anderson Jr.
4. Will Levis
5. Jalen Carter
6. Devon Witherspoon
7. Christian Gonzalez
8. Bijan Robinson
9. Tyree Wilson
10. Nolan Smith

Actual
1. Bryce Young
2. C.J. Stroud
3. Will Anderson Jr.
4. Anthony Richardson
5. Devon Witherspoon
6. Paris Johnson Jr.
7. Tyree Wilson
8. Bijan Robinson
9. Jalen Carter
10. Darnell Wright

Three of the top 10 picks were missing in the mock completely, one of which was the #4 overall pick.  QB Will Levis dropped out of the top 10 completely, and Jalen Carter dropped pretty significantly.

In short, it's a bit of a crapshoot.  There are Isurprises every year, and quarterbacks change the dynamics quite a bit.  With as many as four QBs projected to go in the top 10 this year, things can shift pretty dramatically if that does not come to fruition.

I don't think it's that much of a crapshoot and I don't see this as proof that Jeremiah got things so wrong.  Yes, Levis dropped.  Yes Richardson rose, but these guys weren't "missing from the mock completely."  I think he still had Richardson in the top 20.  Paris Johnson was top 15 and I am pretty sure he still had Wright in the 1st.  I can't imagine people expect them to be dead correct, considering the draft day trades.  He had Forbes to Washington and Jones to Pittsburgh right. 

[#27TheDominator]

36 minutes ago, Larz said:

DE is a low key need. Just saying.  They aren’t having Clowney in for tea. 

I don't think it's a need.  I just think they like Clowney.  Clowney is the kind of disruptive guy they love.  He can hold up against the run and moves like he was shot out of a cannon.  I guess them looking for another DE means they intend to keep JFM in his tweener role.  

[Smashmouth]

Win now Mode trade up and get MH Jr  this offense would be insane like greatest show on turf insane. Trading up wont be too bad some saying it would be 10 and a second ? If we do well this year whats a late second going to get us next year the MH Jr cant handle ?? Do it JD

[slats]

40 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of a couple of free agent signings.  
 

The Jets must find a D’Brickashaw type player.   If they don’t, Jets can expect an injured and/or annoyed 40 year-old QB.  Plus, whatever young QB they draft in the next year or two will be getting sacked left and right when his time comes.  

I understand the “all-in” concept and selecting a WR or TE is flashier.  However, Rodgers has never liked throwing the ball to rookies.  NEVER.   Keeping him upright is more important.  

I want the WR, but there is no doubt that OT is in play. A guy like Fautanu, who can start ahead of Simpson this year at guard and slide out to tackle next year, would make a ton of sense. 
 
But like I said, I want the WR, lol. 

[GreenFish]

If one of the top 3 WRs drops to 8, a trade up with Atlanta is possible.

Wilson, Williams and Odunze is a really good trio. Wilson can cook from the slot. 

[MysticalJet2]

I just think JD is setting up for a trade back to get an extra pick or 2 considering the depth at OL and WR in this draft.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

I want the WR, but there is no doubt that OT is in play. A guy like Fautanu, who can start ahead of Simpson this year at guard and slide out to tackle next year, would make a ton of sense. 
 
But like I said, I want the WR, lol. 

If they go OL he’s the guy.  Douglas loves versatile guys like him. 

Although now I’m wondering if qb is in play.  Nothing would surprise me now.  Nothing.  

[Integrity28]

I think JD did what he needed to ensure a scenario where he doesn’t have to make a “need” pick. This maximizes draft flexibility and drafting BPA, even if it’s a QB that gets a red shirt season.

It’s a sound strategy. He needs to match it with sound execution on draft day.

[Integrity28]

4 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

If one of the top 3 WRs drops to 8, a trade up with Atlanta is possible.

Wilson, Williams and Odunze is a really trio. Wilson can cook from the slot. 

If this ensures Cobb gets the boot, the yes.

[Jets723]

1 hour ago, K_O_Brien said:

10 is no man's land, classic Jets territory. Time to trade up, or down.

I disagree that it’s man’s land.  Do you know who the 10th pick in the 2022 draft was?  I think you may know him 😂.  Anyway I think a trade back has become more probable now 

[derp]

1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

I am surprised how many fans are ready to bypass T because of a couple of free agent signings.  
 

The Jets must find a D’Brickashaw type player.   If they don’t, Jets can expect an injured and/or annoyed 40 year-old QB.  Plus, whatever young QB they draft in the next year or two will be getting sacked left and right when his time comes.  

I understand the “all-in” concept and selecting a WR or TE is flashier.  However, Rodgers has never liked throwing the ball to rookies.  NEVER.   Keeping him upright is more important.  

I don’t think tackle is off the table, but it is very different from WR in that a tackle needs an injury to see any snaps at all and a WR would not. And really both spots are one injury away from from being down to a replacement level player starting - two replacement level players unless someone else is added in the case of WR.