Rome Odunze vs. Brian Thomas jr

[green&white]

I keep reading "if the top 3 wr are gone" go with ______ at 10.  I'm not a college football guy.  Is there that much of a difference between Odunze and BTJ to justify Odunze at 10 but BTJ is a reach at 10?  From what I see, the separation BTJ creates is a good bit better than Odunze.  Makes the contested catch, breakaway speed...given the fact of just how ridiculously priced top end receivers are in the free agent/extension market, tell me why you wouldn't go with Brian Tomas jr over Bowers/best OT.

[Dunnie]

I keep reading "if the top 3 wr are gone" go with ______ at 10.  I'm not a college football guy.  Is there that much of a difference between Odunze and BTJ to justify Odunze at 10 but BTJ is a reach at 10?  From what I see, the separation BTJ creates is a good bit better than Odunze.  Makes the contested catch, breakaway speed...given the fact of just how ridiculously priced top end receivers are in the free agent/extension market, tell me why you wouldn't go with Brian Tomas jr over Bowers/best OT.

Trading back to take any of the top WRs over Bowers would be my preferred path ... Gaining back a second round pick.

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[Bobby816]

I’ll start by saying I don’t dislike Thomas at all. In a trade back scenario he’d be a guy I’d like.

 

But Odunze is quite a bit better than he is. I don’t see this as a class where there’s a slim margin of a gap after MHJ, Nabers and Odunze. I think it’s an event drop off after those 3. Those 3 in most years are #1 WRs. I do think Thomas is the best if that next tier though

[green&white]

8 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Trading back to take any of the top WRs over Bowers would be my preferred path ... Gaining back a second round pick.

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Two things here....1. you need a willing partner.  2. No guarantee the guy you want is at the spot you trade to.  

To me, if you like a guy enough to grab him at 17, take him at 10.

[Dunnie]

Two things here....1. you need a willing partner.  2. No guarantee the guy you want is at the spot you trade to.  
To me, if you like a guy enough to grab him at 17, take him at 10.

Absolutely.. especially needing a partner... I think there will be a team looking to move up depending on how the QBs come off the board.

As far as guaranteeing the guy you want is there.. I think you need to have a bunch of guys you want ... Enough that the odds of one of them being there are high .. like at least a 75% probability.




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[LockeJET]

I think JJ McCarthy is the key. If the Giants take him at six that pushes somebody down to the Jets possibly. If he doesn’t go six, there’s a chance he’s there at 10 which would make the Jets trade back scenario A reality. The Vikings desperately needed a QB. They are the pick after the Jets. If they want McCarthy, they might even trade up one spot to make sure that nobody trades in front of them with the Jets. The Jets could technically recoup their second round pick and just move back one spot and still get the guy they want. 

[Green Ghost]

7 minutes ago, LockeJET said:

I think JJ McCarthy is the key. If the Giants take him at six that pushes somebody down to the Jets possibly. If he doesn’t go six, there’s a chance he’s there at 10 which would make the Jets trade back scenario A reality. The Vikings desperately needed a QB. They are the pick after the Jets. If they want McCarthy, they might even trade up one spot to make sure that nobody trades in front of them with the Jets. The Jets could technically recoup their second round pick and just move back one spot and still get the guy they want. 

I’m not a big JJM guy, but if he falls to 10 the Jets better take him. F**k moving back… take the QB.

[Jets723]

I think for both you could slide back and still get them

[Dunnie]

I’m not a big JJM guy, but if he falls to 10 the Jets better take him. F**k moving back… take the QB.

I'd be tempted too... Penix in Rnd two might be the better path though ... No ?

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[Green Ghost]

11 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

I'd be tempted too... Penix in Rnd two might be the better path though ... No ?

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Penix is what? 24 and has had two pretty major injuries already? I’m not totally against the idea of taking a chance on him, but I think McCarthy is the better play here.

That said, who the heck knows with these guys? More than half of them turn into pumpkins anyway. 🤷‍♂️

[bonkertons]

56 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Trading back to take any of the top WRs over Bowers would be my preferred path ... Gaining back a second round pick.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

I think this is a mistake.  You're rolling the dice that BTJ will still be there if you do, and if he's not there it's a pretty big dropoff IMO.  The choice seems to be:  stick at 10 where you are guaranteed an elite weapon, or trade down and walk away with two good prospects.  A solid OT and a guy who, with luck, will develop into a decent WR2.  

 

IMO it's not worth the extra 2nd rounder, passing on a talent like Bowers or Thomas Jr.  Go bring in your depth OT through free agency.  Keep developing Warren.  Reevaluate your OT position next year.  If Morgan stays healthy you could easily bring him back for another year.  Something like Warren-Simpson-Tippmann-AVT-Moses/UFA.  Draft a LT early if you want to compete with Warren if you're not completely sold.  

 

One of these days though we will need to actually develop an OL outside of the first 2 rounds.

[Bobby816]

5 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I think this is a mistake.  You're rolling the dice that BTJ will still be there if you do, and if he's not there it's a pretty big dropoff IMO.  The choice seems to be:  stick at 10 where you are guaranteed an elite weapon, or trade down and walk away with two good prospects.  A solid OT and a guy who, with luck, will develop into a decent WR2.  

 

IMO it's not worth the extra 2nd rounder, passing on a talent like Bowers or Thomas Jr.  Go bring in your depth OT through free agency.  Keep developing Warren.  Reevaluate your OT position next year.  If Morgan stays healthy you could easily bring him back for another year.  Something like Warren-Simpson-Tippmann-AVT-Moses/UFA.  Draft a LT early if you want to compete with Warren if you're not completely sold.  

 

One of these days though we will need to actually develop an OL outside of the first 2 rounds.

Call me crazy but I like what I saw from Warren last year starting before he should and with little to no offseason. Hes in a perfect situation right now not forced to start. Healthy. Will have a whole offseason to learn. Has now starting experience in the nfl. Has incredible vets to learn from. He’s set up to develop.

[bonkertons]

4 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Call me crazy but I like what I saw from Warren last year starting before he should and with little to no offseason. Hes in a perfect situation right now not forced to start. Healthy. Will have a whole offseason to learn. Has now starting experience in the nfl. Has incredible vets to learn from. He’s set up to develop.

I do as well, but now some people point to Mitchell as a 4th rounder who looked good as a rookie and then fell off, saying we now can't trust anything we've seen from Warren.  If that's the case then I have no idea why tf we even drafted this dude.  Luckily I doubt the FO and coaching staff agree with that philosophy, and they're most likely pretty high on him.  Maybe they'll want to bring in some competition, but I doubt that'll be a 1st round investment.  

[slats]

37 minutes ago, LockeJET said:

I think JJ McCarthy is the key. If the Giants take him at six that pushes somebody down to the Jets possibly. If he doesn’t go six, there’s a chance he’s there at 10 which would make the Jets trade back scenario A reality. The Vikings desperately needed a QB. They are the pick after the Jets. If they want McCarthy, they might even trade up one spot to make sure that nobody trades in front of them with the Jets. The Jets could technically recoup their second round pick and just move back one spot and still get the guy they want. 

I expect the Vikings to trade up past the Jets but, if they don’t, then Joe Douglas might actually find himself in a great place to trade down from if someone wants to grab a QB right before Minnesota’s on the board. Otherwise, he really doesn’t have a lot of viable trade down options. I don’t think the Jets could squeeze the Vikes for a second there, but who knows? 
 
I think WR is the right move. Mike Williams is the WR I was hoping for in free agency -a legitimate, quality starter that doesn’t count against the comp pick projection- but he’s still a 29 year old coming back from an ACL. With Warren and Mitchell on the roster (and Becton still a possibility), WR is clearly the bigger need. The Jets have no depth there, with two UDFAs from last year probably in their top five. 
 
I know that Bowers train is picking up steam, but that pick makes little sense for the Jets. Conklin gets some **** around here, but he was #13 in yards among all TEs last year with Zach & Friends throwing him the ball. Ruckert’s had a slow start to his career, it’s time for him to get moving, and then they have the physical freak in Kuntz. Hard to justify the low-valued position over the higher one when the higher one is also the greater need. 

[slats]

44 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

I’m not a big JJM guy, but if he falls to 10 the Jets better take him. F**k moving back… take the QB.

This stuff is pure fan fiction. 0% chance Douglas takes a QB in the first round this year. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, slats said:

I expect the Vikings to trade up past the Jets but, if they don’t, then Joe Douglas might actually find himself in a great place to trade down from if someone wants to grab a QB right before Minnesota’s on the board. Otherwise, he really doesn’t have a lot of viable trade down options. I don’t think the Jets could squeeze the Vikes for a second there, but who knows? 
 
I think WR is the right move. Mike Williams is the WR I was hoping for in free agency -a legitimate, quality starter that doesn’t count against the comp pick projection- but he’s still a 29 year old coming back from an ACL. With Warren and Mitchell on the roster (and Becton still a possibility), WR is clearly the bigger need. The Jets have no depth there, with two UDFAs from last year probably in their top five. 
 
I know that Bowers train is picking up steam, but that pick makes little sense for the Jets. Conklin gets some **** around here, but he was #13 in yards among all TEs last year with Zach & Friends throwing him the ball. Ruckert’s had a slow start to his career, it’s time for him to get moving, and then they have the physical freak in Kuntz. Hard to justify the low-valued position over the higher one when the higher one is also the greater need. 

Right now the jets starting OL is set.  If they didn’t have such a need at wr, i might say OL is still the way to go.  But, the jets can still add a quality OL in round 3.  

If he can trade back, he’ll explore it, but ultimately jd knows he needs an impact pick after mcdonald did nothing.  I like bowers, he has game and i think he has the speed and hands to make an impact in the nfl.  But he’s just too risky.  He’s like a souped up Richie Anderson.  I’m wondering how scouts really view a guy like BTJ b/c i see him ranked in the 14-17 range of prospects but that’s in a stacked qb/ot/wr class.  

[Bobby816]

3 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I do as well, but now some people point to Mitchell as a 4th rounder who looked good as a rookie and then fell off, saying we now can't trust anything we've seen from Warren.  If that's the case then I have no idea why tf we even drafted this dude.  Luckily I doubt the FO and coaching staff agree with that philosophy, and they're most likely pretty high on him.  Maybe they'll want to bring in some competition, but I doubt that'll be a 1st round investment.  

Mitchell was more of a project IMO. He came from lower level competition and needed to gain quite a bit of weight and add strength. Warren didn’t need to do any of that. His issue was he needed to get healthy. Mitchell I think would be best served to keep adding weight and strength and move to G. Warren develop at OT.

[Green Ghost]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

This stuff is pure fan fiction. 0% chance Douglas takes a QB in the first round this year. 

If you had said “There is 0% chance JJM is there at 10…” I’d be inclined to agree.

Instead you’re saying that if he does fall, there is 0% chance Joe Douglas takes him. That is nothing more than you doing what everyone else here is… talking out of your a**.

[green&white]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

I expect the Vikings to trade up past the Jets but, if they don’t, then Joe Douglas might actually find himself in a great place to trade down from if someone wants to grab a QB right before Minnesota’s on the board. Otherwise, he really doesn’t have a lot of viable trade down options. I don’t think the Jets could squeeze the Vikes for a second there, but who knows? 
 
I think WR is the right move. Mike Williams is the WR I was hoping for in free agency -a legitimate, quality starter that doesn’t count against the comp pick projection- but he’s still a 29 year old coming back from an ACL. With Warren and Mitchell on the roster (and Becton still a possibility), WR is clearly the bigger need. The Jets have no depth there, with two UDFAs from last year probably in their top five. 
 
I know that Bowers train is picking up steam, but that pick makes little sense for the Jets. Conklin gets some **** around here, but he was #13 in yards among all TEs last year with Zach & Friends throwing him the ball. Ruckert’s had a slow start to his career, it’s time for him to get moving, and then they have the physical freak in Kuntz. Hard to justify the low-valued position over the higher one when the higher one is also the greater need. 

I'm leaning this way as well.  The tight end is a luxury pick.  I think Brian Thomas jr has the size and speed to be a freak in the NFL.  And he doesn't even need to step in and be the number 1 or number 2 guy.  

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, green&white said:

I'm leaning this way as well.  The tight end is a luxury pick.  I think Brian Thomas jr has the size and speed to be a freak in the NFL.  And he doesn't even need to step in and be the number 1 or number 2 guy.  

The fit is obvious and the jets haven’t had that type of guy in a long time.  

[Bobby816]

14 minutes ago, slats said:

I expect the Vikings to trade up past the Jets but, if they don’t, then Joe Douglas might actually find himself in a great place to trade down from if someone wants to grab a QB right before Minnesota’s on the board. Otherwise, he really doesn’t have a lot of viable trade down options. I don’t think the Jets could squeeze the Vikes for a second there, but who knows? 
 
I think WR is the right move. Mike Williams is the WR I was hoping for in free agency -a legitimate, quality starter that doesn’t count against the comp pick projection- but he’s still a 29 year old coming back from an ACL. With Warren and Mitchell on the roster (and Becton still a possibility), WR is clearly the bigger need. The Jets have no depth there, with two UDFAs from last year probably in their top five. 
 
I know that Bowers train is picking up steam, but that pick makes little sense for the Jets. Conklin gets some **** around here, but he was #13 in yards among all TEs last year with Zach & Friends throwing him the ball. Ruckert’s had a slow start to his career, it’s time for him to get moving, and then they have the physical freak in Kuntz. Hard to justify the low-valued position over the higher one when the higher one is also the greater need. 

I say just draft a guy. Only trade back if there’s an offer that’s too good to be true. That being said. I say that really only if we’re going WR or Bowers there. Bc they could help right away. An OT isn’t. I’m more inclined to entertain a trade back if we end of drafting OT in round 1.

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

If you had said “There is 0% chance JJM is there at 10…” I’d be inclined to agree.

Instead you’re saying that if he does fall, there is 0% chance Joe Douglas takes him. That is nothing more than you doing what everyone else here is… talking out of your a**.

No, I’m actually applying logic to the situation. They’re locked in with Rodgers at QB until he says otherwise and, let’s be honest here, JD is drafting for his job. He’s not taking a QB at #10 then sitting on his hands for two rounds in a draft where he needs to find an immediate impact player, not a QB likely to get his first start after the GM’s fired. 
 
0% chance, whether your JJM is there or not. 

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I say just draft a guy. Only trade back if there’s an offer that’s too good to be true. That being said. I say that really only if we’re going WR or Bowers there. Bc they could help right away. An OT isn’t. I’m more inclined to entertain a trade back if we end of drafting OT in round 1.

He hasn’t made a serious move down since the second round of his first draft, and he got burned in that one watching WRs fly off the board before settling on Mims. Since then, he’s either traded up or handed his card in (seemed like he was trying to trade back last year, though). Unless the board completely falls apart, or he gets blown away with an offer, I expect him to make a pick at #10. 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, slats said:

He hasn’t made a serious move down since the second round of his first draft, and he got burned in that one watching WRs fly off the board before settling on Mims. Since then, he’s either traded up or handed his card in (seemed like he was trying to trade back last year, though). Unless the board completely falls apart, or he gets blown away with an offer, I expect him to make a pick at #10. 

I can see sliding back to 12 or 13 with the expectation that the broncos or raiders are trading up for a qb but even that small trade back could mean you lose out on a wr.  

[Green Ghost]

1 minute ago, slats said:

No, I’m actually applying logic to the situation. They’re locked in with Rodgers at QB until he says otherwise and, let’s be honest here, JD is drafting for his job. He’s not taking a QB at #10 then sitting on his hands for two rounds in a draft where he needs to find an immediate impact player, not a QB likely to get his first start after the GM’s fired. 
 
0% chance, whether your JJM is there or not. 

My JJM, huh?  Nice try. 🙄

I think he’s is another example of pundits and NFL GMs over drafting QBs who should be thought of as a mid to late 1st round picks at best.
That said, in the unlikely event he’s there at 10 I think there’s a better than 0% chance Joe Douglas takes him. Unlike you.

 

[#27TheDominator]

13 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

If you had said “There is 0% chance JJM is there at 10…” I’d be inclined to agree.

Instead you’re saying that if he does fall, there is 0% chance Joe Douglas takes him. That is nothing more than you doing what everyone else here is… talking out of your a**.

Is that really falling though?  This is a guy that was considered a potential second getting Daniel Jones comps.  As things started going around and got pushed up to the top half of the first.  I have not seen anybody that has him higher than 4th at his position.  There is at least one mortal lock top 10 WR.  Generational.  McCarthy "falling" to 10 would not exactly rival Will Levis or Brady Quinn.

[slats]

1 minute ago, Green Ghost said:

My JJM, huh?  Nice try. 🙄

I think he’s is another example of pundits and NFL GMs over drafting QBs who should be thought of as a mid to late 1st round picks at best.
That said, in the unlikely event he’s there at 10 I think there’s a better than 0% chance Joe Douglas takes him. Unlike you.

 

We’ll see. I hope he is there so that you can see that JD was never going to take him. 🙃

[nycdan]

28 minutes ago, slats said:

This stuff is pure fan fiction. 0% chance Douglas takes a QB in the first round this year. 

Gotta agree.

I was as loud of a critic as anyone when GB drafted Love in a year where they had legitimate SB odds, leaving Rodgers with very little offensive help.  Looking back at that season, Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman were there for the taking and could have very much made the difference.

Flash forward to now.  I can't, in good conscience, support taking a QB even though I recognize it as a long-term need meeting a current opportunity.  We brought Rodgers in for a shot at the trophy.  WR is probably the most effective position to draft now that will help that cause.  I can see OT or even TE.  But not QB or any defensive position.  Not this year.

[Green Ghost]

6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Is that really falling though?  This is a guy that was considered a potential second getting Daniel Jones comps.  As things started going around and got pushed up to the top half of the first.  I have not seen anybody that has him higher than 4th at his position.  There is at least one mortal lock top 10 WR.  Generational.  McCarthy "falling" to 10 would not exactly rival Will Levis or Brady Quinn.

I don’t disagree with anything you’re saying here. I’ve said a few times in various threads that back in January I considered him a late 1st, early 2nd round talent. The NFL loves to overvalue QBs though, so here he is now still touted as the 4th best QB in this draft but that’s somehow evolved to mean someone who will likely go no later than 6th in the draft.

I don’t understand or agree with that thinking… but that’s not what we’re talking about in this thread right now. 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Gotta agree.

I was as loud of a critic as anyone when GB drafted Love in a year where they had legitimate SB odds, leaving Rodgers with very little offensive help.  Looking back at that season, Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman were there for the taking and could have very much made the difference.

Flash forward to now.  I can't, in good conscience, support taking a QB even though I recognize it as a long-term need meeting a current opportunity.  We brought Rodgers in for a shot at the trophy.  WR is probably the most effective position to draft now that will help that cause.  I can see OT or even TE.  But not QB or any defensive position.  Not this year.

For win now, later and need wr is the play.  I hope they take a tackle in round 3, you can find good prospects there.  But they need another weapon as there are so many wrs being drafted the jets can’t get left behind

[NYJCAP2]

1 hour ago, LockeJET said:

I think JJ McCarthy is the key. If the Giants take him at six that pushes somebody down to the Jets possibly. If he doesn’t go six, there’s a chance he’s there at 10 which would make the Jets trade back scenario A reality. The Vikings desperately needed a QB. They are the pick after the Jets. If they want McCarthy, they might even trade up one spot to make sure that nobody trades in front of them with the Jets. The Jets could technically recoup their second round pick and just move back one spot and still get the guy they want. 

Just my opinion, but any QB talk with the Giants is a total smoke screen. 

A roster filled with holes and a vet back up to Jones. I just think any QB talk (4th off the board) related to them helps their trade leverage.

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Just my opinion, but any QB talk with the Giants is a total smoke screen. 

A roster filled with holes and a vet back up to Jones. I just think any QB talk (4th off the board) related to them helps their trade leverage.

I agree.  I think the giants are going wr and want minny to trade ahead of them.

[nycdan]

6 minutes ago, NYJCAP2 said:

Just my opinion, but any QB talk with the Giants is a total smoke screen. 

A roster filled with holes and a vet back up to Jones. I just think any QB talk (4th off the board) related to them helps their trade leverage.

Maybe.  But I think with QB, a team either has to have an answer for the present or the future.  Jones is neither.  Lock is neither.  They don't have an answer.  There's a good argument for filling out the offense today to help a new QB next year, but there may not be a single QB in the 2025 draft better than JJM as a prospect.  They also aren't looking particularly good for cap room in 2025 compared to the league as a whole.

They may need to do it now or subject themselves to a 2-year drought.  Unless they want to take a flier on ZW?

But the real question is, even if they don't want JJM, will they trade out to a team that does.  As long as he goes 1-9, it helps us.  Doesn't matter who takes him.

[#27TheDominator]

5 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

I don’t disagree with anything you’re saying here. I’ve said a few times in various threads that back in January I considered him a late 1st, early 2nd round talent. The NFL loves to overvalue QBs though, so here he is now still touted as the 4th best QB in this draft but that’s somehow evolved to mean someone who will likely go no later than 6th in the draft.

I don’t understand or agree with that thinking… but that’s not what we’re talking about in this thread right now. 

I'm not sure if this take is hypocritical or insane.  Your take is that McCarthy is worth a mid-1st/earl 2nd, but he is a MUST take at 10 because people are now saying that he will likely go no later than 6th overall?  You don't win games by taking guys later than they were projected.  You win games by picking guys that play better than where they were taken, or at least up to their slot. 

IMO the only reason to take McCarthy would be if some team right behind us was trying some brinksmanship on a trade up.  The three teams after us are all supposedly looking for McCarthy and that would be kin do of a ballsy Philip Rivers Eli Manning move.

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

I’m not a big JJM guy, but if he falls to 10 the Jets better take him. F**k moving back… take the QB.

That would be an AWFUL move by the Jets.

The biggest fail of this whole draft will be the team that takes McCarthy in the 1st round.