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Very good WR eval/rankings for this year’s draft class


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Interesting bits—

—Top three are awesome, but Odunze being comped to DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant makes me want to trade three firsts for him. 

—Comp for Ladd McConkey? Garrett Wilson

—Brian Thomas is ranked 4 based on athletic profile, but some troubling stuff in terms of actually catching and securing footballs through contact, which is where the sausage gets made.

—If Adonai Mitchell is able to screw his head on properly, he could be the best receiver in this draft. Absurd athleticism, elite at the catch point, and can’t be covered if he doesn’t want to be covered, but sounds like a head case.

 

https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-wr-rankings-grades-and-profiles

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I mean, if it was based on athletic profile then Mitchell would be above Thomas. Thomas also led the country in touchdowns playing in the SEC. I’m really curious how his off field stuff is because I think it’s huge for how he projects, but I’m kind of reluctant to think he’s a fit for the Jets.

I think he underrates Corley a little. Seems like a good fit to do Mickey Mouse stuff early as he develops the other stuff but he’s flashed the ability to catch the ball away from his frame and in tight quarters which is huge.

Winks is good though. He and Norris do a great job with their stuff.

As sad as it is, with draft picks at this point I mostly think “How likely is it that the Jets mess this up?” And I think the Odunze is one of the guys who I think would be harder for them to mess up among players who’ve come out recently. I felt the same about Sauce and Hall, and I should’ve liked GW more - although it kind of seems like their on their way to breaking his spirit.

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16 minutes ago, derp said:

As sad as it is, with draft picks at this point I mostly think “How likely is it that the Jets mess this up?”

Exactly where I’ve been for, oh, twenty years and it informs every bit of the way I think about draft prospects. If they don’t hit every threshold or need any development, I don’t even consider them. I need 50 starts and a minimum of three All-Conference noms before they’re viable for the Jets.

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Exactly where I’ve been for, oh, twenty years and it informs every bit of the way I think about draft prospects. If they don’t hit every threshold or need any development, I don’t even consider them. I need 50 starts and a minimum of three All-Conference noms before they’re viable for the Jets.

I think they’ve had an ecosystem where they can develop guys on defense because they’re good enough to let guys come in, be surrounded by competence, have veterans who can help, learn on the fly, make mistakes, etc. On offense they just refuse to get enough pieces in place to accomplish that. The coaching absolutely factors in too.

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7 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Interesting bits—

—Top three are awesome, but Odunze being comped to DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant makes me want to trade three firsts for him. 

—Comp for Ladd McConkey? Garrett Wilson

—Brian Thomas is ranked 4 based on athletic profile, but some troubling stuff in terms of actually catching and securing footballs through contact, which is where the sausage gets made.

—If Adonai Mitchell is able to screw his head on properly, he could be the best receiver in this draft. Absurd athleticism, elite at the catch point, and can’t be covered if he doesn’t want to be covered, but sounds like a head case.

 

https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-wr-rankings-grades-and-profiles

• Odunze is going to be a beast and he is the most realistic pick at 10 that I want

• Garrett Wilson has been a trooper but I think this kind of highlights that GW5 is not an elite upper echelon WR…and that’s okay…but we do need more skilled young wide outs

• We need great football players not guys who look good in the gym but can’t catch

• We need great football players not guys who are going to be in with the team psychiatrist more than the practice field

• All signs pointing to us getting Odunze anyway we can

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9 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Interesting bits—

—Top three are awesome, but Odunze being comped to DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant makes me want to trade three firsts for him. 

—Comp for Ladd McConkey? Garrett Wilson

—Brian Thomas is ranked 4 based on athletic profile, but some troubling stuff in terms of actually catching and securing footballs through contact, which is where the sausage gets made.

—If Adonai Mitchell is able to screw his head on properly, he could be the best receiver in this draft. Absurd athleticism, elite at the catch point, and can’t be covered if he doesn’t want to be covered, but sounds like a head case.

 

https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-draft-wr-rankings-grades-and-profiles

Brian Thomas is uncomfortably reminding me of Stephen Hill and I kind of want no part of him

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2 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

Garrett Wilson has been a trooper but I think this kind of highlights that GW5 is not an elite upper echelon WR…and that’s okay…but we do need more skilled young wide outs

Season 2 Wtf GIF by Parks and Recreation

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Connor Rogers makes a neat point about BTJ in that he only does one thing really well, and that is take the top off and score touchdowns. 

Is that a bad thing?  

We need a pure burner (Z), keep Williams at (X), put Garrett in the slot and have him put up JJ numbers.

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10 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

Garrett Wilson has been a trooper but I think this kind of highlights that GW5 is not an elite upper echelon WR…and that’s okay…but we do need more skilled young wide outs

Sir, a bridge too far

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4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Connor Rogers makes a neat point about BTJ in that he only does one thing really well, and that is take the top off and score touchdowns. 

Is that a bad thing?  

We need a pure burner (Z), keep Williams at (X), put Garrett in the slot and have him put up JJ numbers.

The counterpoint to that is that everyone plays two-high now and receivers who “take the top off” aren’t doing that anymore.

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9 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Brian Thomas is uncomfortably reminding me of Stephen Hill and I kind of want no part of him

Adding to the Hill comparison: Brian Thomas only saw 147 targets in his entire college career. Rome Odunze saw 140 target this year alone. Malik Nabers, 128 this year alone. 

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4 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Connor Rogers makes a neat point about BTJ in that he only does one thing really well, and that is take the top off and score touchdowns. 

Is that a bad thing?  

We need a pure burner (Z), keep Williams at (X), put Garrett in the slot and have him put up JJ numbers.

Yes but not necessarily at #10 overall.

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3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Adding to the Hill comparison: Brian Thomas only saw 147 targets in his entire college career. Rome Odunze saw 140 target this year alone. Malik Nabers, 128 this year alone. 

I see 176. He had 127 catches on those targets which is pretty decent, I can’t imagine the 147 number is real.

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7 minutes ago, derp said:

I see 176. He had 127 catches on those targets which is pretty decent, I can’t imagine the 147 number is real.

My bad for not double checking. Got that number here, from a dynasty Reddit. Perils of Google snapshots.

 

 

IMG_5093.png

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

My bad for not double checking. Got that number here, from a dynasty Reddit. Perils of Google snapshots.

 

 

IMG_5093.png

The dynasty crew is always interesting to get a perspective from on WR’s. I dabble a little so some interest from multiple ends, but those guys take their digging in pretty seriously.

My lean with Thomas is he’s going to be good. He broke out this year but wasn’t as developed and was playing at a school that has legit receivers. Route running improved over the course of the year. Intangibles are supposedly good. Can catch away from his body. Through contact catching isn’t great yet but he’s got a huge frame and I think he gets up to 215-220 and the added weight makes a big difference.

Trend is all pretty positive and I think there’s reason to believe the weak stuff improves. I question the fit here a little, although I guess if they put Thomas and Williams outside Wilson would probably eat from the slot. I think he falls into the tier of guys I’d be open to then taking in a trade down but I mostly really want Odunze.

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12 minutes ago, derp said:

The dynasty crew is always interesting to get a perspective from on WR’s. I dabble a little so some interest from multiple ends, but those guys take their digging in pretty seriously.

My lean with Thomas is he’s going to be good. He broke out this year but wasn’t as developed and was playing at a school that has legit receivers. Route running improved over the course of the year. Intangibles are supposedly good. Can catch away from his body. Through contact catching isn’t great yet but he’s got a huge frame and I think he gets up to 215-220 and the added weight makes a big difference.

Trend is all pretty positive and I think there’s reason to believe the weak stuff improves. I question the fit here a little, although I guess if they put Thomas and Williams outside Wilson would probably eat from the slot. I think he falls into the tier of guys I’d be open to then taking in a trade down but I mostly really want Odunze.

Goes back to my reluctance to believe the Jets would get the best out of a prospect like him, especially with Rodgers’ lack of patience. I’m also wary of the tall speed guys that struggle playing through contact because I always see MVS and Devante Parker drops in my mind. I feel like if I were shopping in this aisle, I’d be more inclined to look at Adonai Mitchell

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Goes back to my reluctance to believe the Jets would get the best out of a prospect like him, especially with Rodgers’ lack of patience. I’m also wary of the tall speed guys that struggle playing through contact because I always see MVS and Devante Parker drops in my mind

Yeah, I’m reluctant. I don’t think he’ll be a Jet anyway. But the LSU guys have a pretty decent track record, he’s improving, has that basketball background, and I think the playing through contact thing improves with strength and he looks like he’ll end up being a tank. Bet he goes to the Colts and crushes it. Or he goes to the Bengals to replace Higgins and kills it.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I’m reluctant. I don’t think he’ll be a Jet anyway. But the LSU guys have a pretty decent track record, he’s improving, has that basketball background, and I think the playing through contact thing improves with strength and he looks like he’ll end up being a tank. Bet he goes to the Colts and crushes it. Or he goes to the Bengals to replace Higgins and kills it.

Yeah, I’d be curious how he’d develop on the Bengals or Jags or something, but I could see him running a bad sail route for Rodgers in preseason and it’d result in Lazard getting 78% of those snaps moving foward

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14 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Yeah, I’d be curious how he’d develop on the Bengals or Jags or something, but I could see him running a bad sail route for Rodgers in preseason and it’d result in Lazard getting 78% of those snaps moving foward

I do think the Rodgers thing is overstated because the Packers made him play with mid round picks. He made it work with Watson who honestly is probably a decent physical comparison except Thomas is younger, more productive, played better competition, and has a little more runway to develop.

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17 minutes ago, derp said:

I do think the Rodgers thing is overstated because the Packers made him play with mid round picks. He made it work with Watson who honestly is probably a decent physical comparison except Thomas is younger, more productive, played better competition, and has a little more runway to develop.

I made the mistake of not unfollowing all those Packers bloggers I was reading during the Rodgers courtship, and it was their impression that Rodgers was very not cool for young receivers to work with. Speaking of Watson, supposedly they don’t love him out there and think Wicks has a chance to pass him on the food chain. I’ve read and heard that Thomas’s route tree has been similarly limited, and vertical, so I wonder how that’d translate. You just don’t see a lot of those nine-route guys prospering anymore because of the two-high stuff. 

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I made the mistake of not unfollowing all those Packers bloggers I was reading during the Rodgers courtship, and it was their impression that Rodgers was very not cool for young receivers to work with. Speaking of Watson, supposedly they don’t love him out there and think Wicks has a chance to pass him on the food chain. I’ve read and heard that Thomas’s route tree has been similarly limited, and vertical, so I wonder how that’d translate. You just don’t see a lot of those nine-route guys prospering anymore because of the two-high stuff. 

Yeah but again, the young receivers he worked with weren’t very good - it’s hard to tell how to interpret that. Not like he had Justin Jefferson and froze him. And Watson not being that good now but Rodgers working with him while he was there is maybe a nod towards that potentially working, no? I think Thomas developing as a route runner last year and his bend maybe nods towards him playing a field spacing role early and developing - I don’t know how well two high works with him and Williams threatening and Wilson in the middle of the field.

Regardless, don’t think it happens. And I really want Odunze.

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Agree that Rome Odunze would be a very safe pick at 10 to come in and contribute from day one.  He caught a ton of contested throws in college which is both a good and bad sign.  Good because he is an elite ball tracker with very strong hands, but bad because he doesn't get a ton of separation.  However, Rodgers excels at throwing players open and doesn't need to see a lot of space to fit the ball in.  If Rome's not available (and assuming MHJ and Nabers are gone already), I would seriously consider a trade back and go with one of the OL that remains

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On 4/6/2024 at 12:01 PM, T0mShane said:

Top three are awesome, but Odunze being comped to DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant makes me want to trade three firsts for him. 

Joe D and Daniel Jeremiah seem to have similar rankings most years. Jeremiah loves Odunze so maybe that translates to Jets also trying to get him if within reach (e.g. #8 swap with falcons also getting Zack Wilson memorabilia).

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22 hours ago, derp said:

I think they’ve had an ecosystem where they can develop guys on defense because they’re good enough to let guys come in, be surrounded by competence, have veterans who can help, learn on the fly, make mistakes, etc. On offense they just refuse to get enough pieces in place to accomplish that. The coaching absolutely factors in too.

New WR coach with alot of experience might help

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On 4/6/2024 at 12:53 PM, derp said:

As sad as it is, with draft picks at this point I mostly think “How likely is it that the Jets mess this up?”

One of the reasons I'm scared of taking Bowers. I can see all of us screaming by week 3 for them to play him more and "why is he not in the slot more?!" 

Like do we really think the Jets would be creative enough to get the most out of his talent? Idk

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2 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

One of the reasons I'm scared of taking Bowers. I can see all of us screaming by week 3 for them to play him more and "why is he not in the slot more?!" 

Like do we really think the Jets would be creative enough to get the most out of his talent? Idk

Oh no chance. I think he’s a little less straightforward of a do everything pass catching prospect than he gets credit for, too,

I honestly think everybody mocks him to the Jets because they have no clue where to put him, have him ranked high, and nobody will question an offensive player there. Maybe it happens though. 

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On 4/6/2024 at 7:41 PM, Adoni Beast said:

Garrett Wilson has been a trooper but I think this kind of highlights that GW5 is not an elite upper echelon WR…and that’s okay…but we do need more skilled young wide outs

Confused Tim And Eric GIF

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Ok,
 

I've finally done my work on the WRs.

 

My top 5:

MHJ (total stud. Really nothing not to love)

Rome Odunze (feels like very low bust potential. Amazing size and contested catch ability with elite overall athleticism - traits that transfer well to the pro game. Supposedly a high character guy. Already Kinda friendly with GW? SIGN ME UP)

Malik Nabers (he's the 2nd most talented WR in the draft, but tread lightly with his character. Not loving what I've seen on the interwebs in that department and that downgrades him slightly for me)

Xavier Leggette (Possibly the most underrated player in the draft? Good combo of size and legit game speed. I get baller vibes)

Keon Coleman (Another underrated guy. Ran slow but plays faster than you think and has elite size and ball skills. More baller vibes)

 

A lot of other guys interest me. 

 

 

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