JD's Draft History

[Bobby816]

I think it's important to dive into what JD has done at the top of the draft in each of his drafts with us. And potentially what he has learned in his hits and failures with some of the picks as well.

So to start I'll just give a breakdown of of how he's spent picks in the top 4 rounds (I'm doing 4 bc we have 4 picks in that range this year). But mainly wanting to focus on the 1st and 2nd Round.

 

2020

1st: Mekhi Becton (OT): I think we can all agree he was a fail. JD appeared to agree with this by not picking up his 5th year option and what appears to be letting him walk in FA. I absolutely disliked the Becton pick at the time and wanted Wirfs. Thought he was safer. But JD and other seemed to become obsessed with his size and mobility. JD I think learned from this with maybe taking guys that are possibly too big and not in great shape or that have work ethic issues. A side note to this was I wanted CeeDee Lamb pretty bad. But OT was the biggest need here. But thought the value of Lamb here was incredible.

2nd: Denzel Mims (WR): Another failed pick. We traded back in Round 2 and still got Mims, which looked like a steal at the time. Mims like Becton appeared to maybe have some work ethic issues as well as health issues. Which made him never pan out.

3rd: Ashtyn Davis (S): Only guy from this drat class still on the roster which isn't good. But Davis is developing. He took longer than you'd like for a 3rd rounder to develop. But he did make improvements quite a bit last year. I really hope he is given a fait sh*t to battle Adams for a starting spot. Davis was a high character guy with a ton of athleticism.

3rd: Jabari Zuniga (DE): Was a guy that we kind of just took a shot on. JD has been on record saying he will for the most part take a pass rusher every draft. And he did with this pick. Zuniga had talent, but couldn't stay healthy and never developed. Making him a guy that's time with the Jets was very short.

4th: La'Michael Perine (RB): Perine was always a guy that didn't wow you with anything and looked like a depth piece. We at this time didn't have anything worth note at RB. So to spend a 4th on a guy that might touch the ball 5 times a game didn't seem that bad. Ultimately Perine was exactly that. A guy this didn't do anything good enough to keep a roster spot.

4th: James Morgan (QB): This pick felt always like a reach. I actually liked Morgan as a developmental guy. I also feel he was a drafted just so NE didn't. Because they were high on him. Morgan never touched the ball for us and was gone rather quickly.

4th: Cameron Clark (OL): Clark was a developmental OL. He actually from reports was developing nicely. But had a career ending injury unfortunately. This was really just bad luck more than anything.

 

2021

1st: Zach Wilson (QB): I never wanted Zach. I actually wanted Fields. Not bc I thought Fields was so much better. Just thought he was safer being he was proven against actual NF talent playing in the Big 12. I also liked the idea of just keeping Darnold and giving him help. Bc we never gave Darnold weapons. But it was clear early once we traded up to 2 and the hype around Wilson grew and we traded Darnold that Wilson was the pick. Obviously these are the type of failed picks that often cost GMs jobs. Wilson is likely to be traded or cut soon.

1st: Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL): We traded up for AVT. Who was looked as an elite OG prospect but that could play OT. A plug and play starter. While not a premium position, he was looked at as an elite player. After a great rookie year... unfortunately for AVT his last 2 seasons have ended in injury. When on the field he's great and he's shown great versatility. But the staff has said they want to keep him in 1 spot going forward and that spot seems to be RG. Hopefully he can stay healthy staying in 1 spot. AVT likely in just a short time will be the only guy drafted in the top 4 rounds of this draft still on the team. And we have a big decision on his 5th year option coming up.

2nd: Elijah Moore (WR): Was looked at as a steal for us. Smaller but quick and productive WR. We 100% were a team at this team starving for weapons. Mims did little as a rookie and we had little after that besides a often injured Davis signed in FA. Moore I liked as a rookie. He showed some optimism for us in the skill department. Ultimately in Year 2 he lost his head attacking the game planning and QB play pretty much. Which ya he wasn't wrong. But you don't go to the media and talk about. This got him benched and ultimately traded last offseason. Which didn't pan out for us bc Moore had a decent year with not good QB play and Hardman was useless for us and was also traded. To defend JD. Moore didn't have signs pre draft that would make you think he'd be that guy he was. And with Adams, we know he doesn't want those guys on the roster.

4th: Michael Carter (RB): Productive RB that split carries in college so would appear he wouldn't mind splitting touches in the NFL. Had a very outgoing personality, but never seemed to be an issue. Was known to be a pass catching quick back. And he did have some success for us for a couple years. This is purely a guess... but I think how close he was with Moore and pretty much siding with him in the staff and such's issues. That's what made us not want him anymore.

 

2022

Worth noting we had a lot of draft capital in this draft do to trading Jamal Adams and Sam Darnold

1st: Sauce (CB): Sauce was viewed as a cant miss CB prospect. Had clean tape, tested well and was shown to be an elite prospect. He does have a bold personality. But he has backed it up and it hasn't seemed to affect him on the field. Likely if we pay him he stays happy with us for a long time. I did truly think we'd go DE here. Sauce was of course worthy of the draft spot. But with Thibs there I did think that's the direction we'd go. So I was surprised by the pick. But wasn't against it. What we do later in the 1st really makes the pick look great as well.

1st: Garrett Wilson (WR): Elite route running and speedy WR. Was a can't miss for me. Was absolutely a guy I wanted at 10. Garrett is a high character guy. Like any WR they get frustrated when they aren't getting the ball and the team is losing. Bc they feel like they can be that difference. Luckily for us he seems to have an incredible relationship with Rodgers and seeing them 2 should be pure joy to watch. It's a bold statement... but I 100% can see prime Adams type seasons out of him these next couple years.

1st: Jermaine Johnson (DE): We trade up for a DE. I for one thought we'd get one at 5. I thought we needed to go DE5 and WR 10. So going Sauce IMO still left that hole at DE. Trading up for JJ made this possible our best 1st round ever in this franchise. I know it's only been 2 years. But JJ I expect to take a huge leap this year. Possibly having all 3 1st being elite talents at their positions.

2nd: Breece Hall (RB): We trade up again and get the best RB in the draft. Hall was a highly productive back that could do it all. Which he's shown in his 2 years. For me he's is a top 3 RB in this league and I expect HUGE things for him in the next few years. It was reported that with these 4 picks it had JD getting 4 of his top 15 players. Which is incredible.

3rd: Jeremy Ruckert (TE): Now getting to the mid rounds you aren't getting immediate starts most the time. We already had Conklin and Uzo on the roster here. So Ruckert was a developmental guy. Had a good career at OSU but OSU due to there star WR talent never really used him. So he seemed to have untapped potential. Word is he's developing nicely. But still has rather done nothing in 2 years in the league. Being we cut Uzo he very well might get opportunity this year. 

4th: Max Mitchell (OL): Developmental OL. Had a lot to like in college but level of competition and size were his issues. Due to injuries he was forced to start as a rookie. And was ok al things considered. Since he wasn't supposed to see the field as a rookie. He did appear to get bigger for last season but when injuries forced him to start again last year when he wasn't supposed to start again. He didn't look any better. Could argue he looked worse. Still unsure what his best depth position is if we keep him around. He could also just be a guy like Davis at S that takes 2 full years to develop.

4th: Michael Clemons (DL): Freakish athlete. Was a big bodied DE at Texas AM that was productive. We ultimately moved him to DT kind of last year and he didn't look as good. He has talent. But unfortunately he plays on a DL that's stacked. Likely fighting for a roster spot this year.

 

2023

1st: Will McDonald (DE): Highly productive DE. Very athletic but not very big. Was a very head scratching pick for most of us being we already had Huff and just drafted JJ as well as had money used on JFM and Lawson. With trading Moore and Davis not reliable I really did think we'd draft JSN here. But that didn't happen. McDonald didn't do much as a rookie. Due to the depth I mentioned above. He appeared to maybe be slated for a bigger role after we let Huff walk. But then we traded for Reddick a couple weeks ago. Making him still slated to probably not make any huge impact in year 2. I'd love to be proven wrong with him. The talent is there. Didn't question his talent for his drafted spot. It was more the position being addressed.

2nd: Joe Tippmann (C): Top C that can play G. Really was solid as a rookie and moving around on the OL. He looks to have a bright future. And fits what we'd like to do on the IOL.

4th: Carter Warren (OT): Developmental OT. Was injured otherwise would've been drafted higher. Because of injuries he missed all of TC and was behind on his development. Was forced to start bc of injuries and had flashes but overall was below average. I'm more optimistic than most regarding Warren bc unlike some other mid round guys. The talent is there as well as size. I think a whole TC and offseason healthy has him better than what some think. Not saying he's so good we shouldn't think OT high in this draft. But he has a skill set that can develop.

 

 

So after all that what does this mean and what trends are here?

For starters JD has big time tried to address offense early in drafts. Which bc of bad luck with injuries and some just bad picks. Still has us as one of the worst offenses in the NFL. While on the other side of the ball on defense we are top 5 and got even better this offseason.

So IMO what that means is that I don't expect very many picks, especially valuable ones on defense. And I think in general most of us can agree on this.

 

What else I'd like to mention is what our board and who we wanted last year. The word was that we wanted Gibbs if there. What does that tell you? The JD is totally ok with having just playmakers out on the field. That it's not position specific. We already had Hall. So they clearly thought we could have packages for both of them.

We also were high on Meyer the TE from ND. But ultimately seemed to think 15 was too high for him. What does this tell us? That even with Uzo we didn't think we were set at TE possibly with 3 guys there that aren't game changers. Uzo is gone. Conklin is average to slightly above average and Ruckert is unproven.

 

I also gather from this that JD might be hesitant to draft OL high. He's done it twice and it's ended in both guys being injured quite a bit. I don't think he doesn't keep that in mind when thinking of a guy at 10 overall. He clearly values OL. So I wouldn't put it past him to try again. But his job is after all on the line and we are a win now team.

 

Now to FA he did FA this year brilliantly. Where we have no glaring holes. Where we thought there'd likely be a starting OL spot still needed to be filled or a WR.

He addressed both of those with 3 new starting OLineman and a legit #2 WR.

 

 

So what do I think happens at 10? Quite frankly I don't know. If I had to bet money right now I'd bet Bowers or Fatauna.

Bowers he can contribute immediately and Fatuana would provide depth for OT and OG.

I'm really not against going Bowers, OL or Odunze if there. I'd be happy with any of those picks. Do some I like more? Absolutely.

[Fantasy Island]

1 great draft,  and a bunch of duds

[Larz]