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Jets #1 team in NFL - Unit Grades - per Mike Clay


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3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

You're missing my point.  I was responding with RedBeardedSavage's comment in mind.  He wrote "I think, because of just how poorly Zach played, we looked worse as a team than we actually were" as if it was all ZW's fault.  When your GM also replaces all the positions I mentioned, doesn't it kind of at least make it at least plausible that maybe the problem was "the surrounding players on offense", rather than ZW?

Breece performed with the same bad offensive line.

Garrett Wilson performed even with bad quarterback play and a bad offensive line. 

Saleh’s defense performed even with a dysfunctional offense.

Given the circumstances, I wouldn’t expect Zach to have a pro bowl year - but I did hope he’d be solid.

He was not. 

And given that quarterback play outweighs nearly every other factor - it’s mostly (not all, but mostly) on Zach. 

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14 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Breece performed with the same bad offensive line.

Garrett Wilson performed even with bad quarterback play and a bad offensive line. 

Saleh’s defense performed even with a dysfunctional offense.

Given the circumstances, I wouldn’t expect Zach to have a pro bowl year - but I did hope he’d be solid.

He was not. 

And given that quarterback play outweighs nearly every other factor - it’s mostly (not all, but mostly) on Zach. 

I'm a huge fan of Breece and I think he would've done a lot better if given more opportunities (he's the type of RB that can break a long gainer at any time) but look at some of these games.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HallBr03/gamelog/2023/

image.png.491f4ec90c76b7bf1adb935b8e2fdf52.png

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2 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

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youre right he stinks in the playoffs 

 

It's a tale as old as time. People assign W's and L's to QB's and pay no attention to the rest of the team. 

Wanna know why Tom Brady has 7 rings? Look at the rankings of his teams defense those years.

It's a team sport. Assigning W's and L's to QB's is stupid.

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15 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I'm a huge fan of Breece and I think he would've done a lot better if given more opportunities (he's the type of RB that can break a long gainer at any time) but look at some of these games. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HallBr03/gamelog/2023/

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Hall tied for fifth among all running backs with 0.7 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry in 2023. If he did that with poor blocking and still managed to average 4.5 yards per carry, imagine what he can do when the holes are there.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/05/10/ny-jets-breece-hall-nfl-best-rb-2024/

Breece far outperformed his situation.

Did Zach?

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48 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Hall tied for fifth among all running backs with 0.7 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry in 2023. If he did that with poor blocking and still managed to average 4.5 yards per carry, imagine what he can do when the holes are there.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2024/05/10/ny-jets-breece-hall-nfl-best-rb-2024/

Breece far outperformed his situation.

Did Zach?

I don't know.  Do they have a stat on that?

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52 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I don't know.  Do they have a stat on that?

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-end-of-the-road-for-new-york-jets-qb-zach-wilson
 

image.thumb.png.589782b4634ae5f8d879ff82e4615110.png
 

Wilson ultimately played 10 games in 2023 but graded above 60.0 just four times. Over his 32-game career, he earned just 14 PFF grades above 60.0 and nine under 50.0. He has graded above 80.0 just twice since 2021. For reference, Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has graded above 80.0 four times this season, three of which have come over the last three games

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10 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-end-of-the-road-for-new-york-jets-qb-zach-wilson
 

image.thumb.png.589782b4634ae5f8d879ff82e4615110.png
 

Wilson ultimately played 10 games in 2023 but graded above 60.0 just four times. Over his 32-game career, he earned just 14 PFF grades above 60.0 and nine under 50.0. He has graded above 80.0 just twice since 2021. For reference, Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has graded above 80.0 four times this season, three of which have come over the last three games

 

 

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401547749/browns-texans

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58 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

In three seasons, Wilson accounted for 28 total touchdowns and 34 turnovers. He completed 57 percent of his passes and threw for 300-plus yards only three times in 34 games. He threw for 250 or more eight times, and 150 yards or fewer 11 times. He never threw three touchdown passes in a game, and only seven times threw two or more touchdowns. He threw zero touchdowns 18 times. He never threw 10 touchdown passes in a season. According to TruMedia, Wilson ranks 47th of 52 eligible quarterbacks in their first three seasons in the last 10 years in EPA per dropback.
 

https://theathletic.com/5332417/2024/04/22/zach-wilson-broncos-jets-trade/?redirected=1&access_token=13724859

EPA is not a PFF exclusive metric. 

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44 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

In three seasons, Wilson accounted for 28 total touchdowns and 34 turnovers. He completed 57 percent of his passes and threw for 300-plus yards only three times in 34 games. He threw for 250 or more eight times, and 150 yards or fewer 11 times. He never threw three touchdown passes in a game, and only seven times threw two or more touchdowns. He threw zero touchdowns 18 times. He never threw 10 touchdown passes in a season. According to TruMedia, Wilson ranks 47th of 52 eligible quarterbacks in their first three seasons in the last 10 years in EPA per dropback.
 

https://theathletic.com/5332417/2024/04/22/zach-wilson-broncos-jets-trade/?redirected=1&access_token=13724859

EPA is not a PFF exclusive metric. 

3 seasons.  In other words, you're lumping in years 1 and 2 of ZW, when he absolutely stunk.  When I talk about seeing potential in ZW, I'm referring to what I saw in year 3.

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11 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

3 seasons.  In other words, you're lumping in years 1 and 2 of ZW, when he absolutely stunk.  When I talk about seeing potential in ZW, I'm referring to what I saw in year 3.

“He never threw for more than 10 tds in any single season” 

https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-quarterback-epa-rankings-at-end-of-2023-season/
 

Doesn’t make this list of top 25 EPA in ‘23.

I can look for more later if you like. 

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On 5/10/2024 at 2:05 PM, Jdeet said:

 

This is why I don't understand the people complaining about Joe Douglas. By any objective metric, we have a very strong roster - easily top 10 in the NFL, probably top 5. Has he made a lot of errors? Of course, all GMs do. Has he done his job (getting the coaching staff a competitive roster that should be a playoff team with a real SB chance)? Yes. And to do that in the short time frame since we were unequivocally the worst roster in the NFL is near miraculous

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On 5/11/2024 at 9:25 AM, TuscanyTile2 said:

You're missing my point.  I was responding with RedBeardedSavage's comment in mind.  He wrote "I think, because of just how poorly Zach played, we looked worse as a team than we actually were" as if it was all ZW's fault.  When your GM also replaces all the positions I mentioned, doesn't it kind of at least make it at least plausible that maybe the problem was "the surrounding players on offense", rather than ZW?

This would make sense as a point if it weren't for the fact that other QBs came in and played better than Zach in the same context. Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Mike White ... a who's who of mediocre NFL QBs who did better with the Jets than Zach when playing with the same rosters. Last year was the first year that Zach wasn't outplayed by his backups, and that wasn't because he was good, only because the Jets didn't have a viable third string QB (Boyle and the shell of Trevor Siemien).

Does Wilson have "potential"? Of course he does. He has an enormous amount of natural arm talent; he wasn't the consensus 2nd choice QB in a draft evaluators believed had multiple NFL starters by accident. But he does not process coverages and pressure well and that's usually a death knell for a QB's prospects of actualizing that potential. And who knows? Sean Payton is certainly better at working with QBs than the mess the Jets had on their offensive staff during Zach's first 3 years (seriously, Gregg Knapp's death absolutely derailed their plan for him). So maybe he can fix him.

Much, much, much more likely, going by the history of NFL QBs with similar starts to their career and similar issues, Zach is never an even decent starting NFL QB. I hope he beats those odds, I truly do - he's not the Jets' problem anymore and his success wouldn't hurt us one bit. But it's highly unlikely.

Now can you all stop talking about the Denver Broncos' third-stringer?

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12 hours ago, Larz said:

Is there another fanbase as allergic to praise and optimism as this one ?

 Don’t think so 

Well with some fan bases you actually have to EARN praise and optimism, the sunshine squaders on this site just hand it out year after year as the non playoff years are up to like 13 or 14.

I'll start back patting when the fing teams does anything of note but by all means praise the hell out of the gm, coach and players year after year as we look forward to the draft in about December.

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7 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Well with some fan bases you actually have to EARN praise and optimism, the sunshine squaders on this site just hand it out year after year as the non playoff years are up to like 13 or 14.

I'll start back patting when the fing teams does anything of note but by all means praise the hell out of the gm, coach and players year after year as we look forward to the draft in about December.

Yeah, no other fanbases get excited because of the talent level they can see their team is putting out on the field.  Difference probably is how few actually argue that their team shouldn’t be praised because their team hasn’t done a thing in 50 years, like a Lion fan would do if he were like you.  Because most fans are smart enough to understand this Jets team is loaded and with competent QB would win more than 7 games.  They don’t actually need reminding that the team hasn’t done it in years but they’re smart enough to understand that being optimistic in 2024 isn’t the same as being optimistic in 2014 or that this team as constructed today is completely different that the teams of the last 14 years if healthy so they should wait until after the season to feel optimistic.

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Best part of this analysis (by far) is the NY Giants ranked DEAD Fn LAST!!!

Oh man, the fun I'll have with this tidbit!!!!

Anyone with a friend who's a Giants fan, the Oh-fer jokes are about to make a comeback:

Week 6:

"Knock Knock"

Who's there?

Oh-fer.

Oh-fer who?

Oh-fer 6!!!!!!

(then 7, 8, 9 and so forth!!!)

Get 'er done!!!

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I liked it better when the 10 'experts all had the Jets ranked dead last...then every Monday morning we'd climb a bit, a few places. Like 2009 with a rookie HC AND a rookie QB...ranked us dead last, then we end up in the AFCCG!

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