2024 OL: Projected sacks allowed

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

For all his faults, JD has finally put together an OL that ‘should’ keep sacks to a minimum.  QB, age and injuries will obviously play a factor.

Just a framework for discussion, please add your thoughts.  

1.  LT Smith (33):  < 2 sacks per 1k offensive snaps (~full season) consistently since 2016.  Gave up 5 sacks in 2015 preceded by avg of 2 over full seasons 2012- 2014.  Outside 2015 outlier, in the 0-3 range

2024 projection = 3 (higher end due to age)

2023 Jets (Becton, Brown) = 14 sacks allowed

2.  RT Moses (33):  has given up exactly 5 sacks in each of 8 of his 9 seasons starting.  In the other year, gave up 4 w/ 2021 Jets

2024 projection = 6 (age adjustment)

2023 Jets (Mitchell, Warren, Turner) = 15 sacks allowed

3.  LG Simpson (27):  brings an anchor that ice skater Tomlinson didn’t have.  1 sack allowed last year and 3 sacks his only other full season 2 years before.  0 sacks in limited action (181 snaps) in 2022

2024 projection = 2

2023 Jets (Tomlinson) = 7

4.  Center Tippmann (23):  3 sacks as a rookie across 852 snaps

2024 projection = 2 (s/b a better player)

2023 Jets (Tippmann, McGovern) = 4

5. RG AVT (25):  2 sacks in his 1 full season as a starting Guard (as a rookie in 2021)

2024 projection = 2 (stays @ his best spot)

2023 Jets (AVT, Glaser, Hanson, Newman, Schweitzer) = 8

Total Projected OL sacks = 15 + injury related / time to gel (11) = 26.  More realistic estimate adds several more sacks to Tyron Smith & AVT backups since neither player has proven he can stay healthy.  While Fashanu didn’t allow a sack in his entire college career (only 1 hit over 1285 pass blocking snaps), it’s not fair to assume that will continue in his rookie year.  4 sacks over 8-9 games at either OT spot feels in the right range (Paris Johnson let up total of 8 last yr).  Schweitzer is roughly a plus 4 sack guy over the other IOL across a full season.   Assumption here is that  he plays 8-9 games covering injuries.  Then let’s add several more for time to gel and Rodgers missing a couple games.  

Then we add sacks attributed to TEs, RBs and those that went unblocked.  2023 Jets let up 16 for a total of 64 sacks last year (4th worst in NFL).  A realistic goal should be to cut these in half w/ faster release time, less blitzing, simpler blocking schemes, and better players.  

1. Big year for Ruckert following a very bad year pass blocking.  Was a much better run blocker 

2. Jets drafted a couple power backs that have potential to be good pass blockers, something Cook & Izzy were not

3. Better Center and simplified pass blocking schemes should help clean up execution on stunts & blitzes

Total Projected 2024 sacks allowed = 34.  #6 least using 2023.

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

Just now, SAM SAM HE&#x27;S OUR MAN said:

Let’s see the analysis.  Where is the flaw in my numbers?  Just added other from non OL.

[Bronx]

Mushroomhead needs to release the ball faster this year. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

6 minutes ago, Bronx said:

Mushroomhead needs to release the ball faster this year. 

Yes sir.  We are going to have far bigger problems if he freezes on the field.

”In his fourth MVP season, 2021, Rodgers averaged 2.63 seconds from snap to pass, the fourth-quickest release time in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information data.”

Through early/mid November 2022, Rodgers was 3rd fastest at 2.52 seconds.    Couldn’t find the full season.

[32EBoozer]

9 minutes ago, Bronx said:

Mushroomhead needs to release the ball faster this year. 

Remembering those 4 plays, I would say the OL needs to provide more than 2 seconds of pass protection so Rodgers can go through his reads