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Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid - Garrett Wilson


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https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/05/fantasy-football-busts-avoid-draft/amp/

Garrett Wilson has unquestionably been saddled with a carousel of dreadful quarterbacks in his young career. Nevertheless, he must make a massive leap to award gamers for taking him at the back of the first round after taking a step back in his sophomore campaign.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 71 wideouts targeted at least 40 times in 2022, Wilson had their ninth-highest receiving grade (85.9) and was tied with Deebo Samuel for 25th in yards per route run (1.85 Y/RR). In 2023, Wilson was 42nd in PFF’s receiving grade (73.5) and 52nd in yards per route run (1.55 Y/RR) among 71 wide receivers targeted at least 40 times.

Aaron Rodgers must clear a low bar to be an improvement over Mike White, Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. Still, Wilson is drafted as if he’s peak Davante Adams catching passes from a back-to-back MVP winner. In reality, Rodgers is a 40-year-old quarterback returning from a ruptured Achilles after an underwhelming final season in Green Bay.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers were tied for 11th in yards per play (5.5) and 14th in scoring offense (21.8 points per game) in 2022 before tying for sixth in yards per play (5.6) and 12th in scoring offense (22.5 points per game) in Jordan Love‘s first season as a starting quarterback. Furthermore, per Sumer Sports, Green Bay was 11th in Expected Points Added per Play (0.02 EPA/Play) and sixth in success rate (46.2%) in 2022. In 2023, the Packers were tied for fifth in EPA/Play (0.07) and eighth in success rate (45.1%) in 2023. Wilson is an easier pick to stomach in the back half of the second round, albeit still with bust potential at that point if Rodgers can’t recapture even his 2022 pre-Achilles injury form.

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14 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Wilson is an easier pick to stomach in the back half of the second round, albeit still with bust potential at that point

LMAO

GW goes first round in every early best ball draft

Bro is a virtual lock for 140+ targets as the main engine of the air attack

Only way anyone is sniffing him in the back half of the 2nd round is if they play in a 6-team league 🤣😂

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Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce.

So yeah, I don't care about fantasy football. 

G. Wilson is a great talent, and should do just fine playing real (not fantasy) football in 2024.

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1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce.

So yeah, I don't care about fantasy football. 

G. Wilson is a great talent, and should do just fine playing real (not fantasy) football in 2024.

It’s also for folks with friends, my guy.  Which explains why @T0mShane hates it.

The trash talk is more than half the fun.  

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9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nothing in that write up actually suggests why he’s going to be a bust or even a reach.

Agreed.  Yards per route run?  Who gives a flaming ****?  Nothing there suggests less catches, yards, or TDs.  IMO, the only reasons to bet against Wilson are:  1.  A more successful team might have to throw less and that might mean less targets.  2. A heavy emphasis on the run to kill the clock might mean less targets.  3.  Mike Williams is a huge step up across the field and they also upgraded in the slot which might mean less targets.  

On his plus side, Rodgers has shown an affinity for feeding his #1 and does not overtly suck, even if he "can't recapture even his pre-Achilles 2022 form."  Also Tyrod Taylor is a huge step up from those throwing him the ball in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce.

So yeah, I don't care about fantasy football. 

G. Wilson is a great talent, and should do just fine playing real (not fantasy) football in 2024.

thread title says clearly fantasy football.  You don't have any regard for fantasy football, which is fine.  So why did you open the thread about GW and his FF value?   Just to proclaim your disdain for FF?   Another palette of complaints? 

Some people enjoy both fantasy football and real football.  Hard to believe?  But true.  You are not one of them.  So why hop in to a FF thread? /

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By the way....  looking for a new GM to fill an open spot in the keeper league where I have Garrett.  Solid team and will be enhanced for the taker.  See my thread on the Fantasy Football page.

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44 minutes ago, Dcat said:

So why did you open the thread about GW and his FF value?   Just to proclaim your disdain for FF?

Yes.

And to make a statement about G. Wilson.  

44 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Some people enjoy both fantasy football and real football.  Hard to believe?

Not hard at all.

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44 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Is that why you are disappointed? 

No he got his digs in.  Oh Look!  A thread about a Jet WR and fantasy football!  I hate fantasy football, so of course I'll hop right in.  

Having a hard time understanding the motive.  

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5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nothing in that write up actually suggests why he’s going to be a bust or even a reach.

He's basically saying that Rodgers is no where near as good as he used to be, but even if he's not, it would be almost unimaginable that he's not significantly better than the three stooges we trotted out there last year

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4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

He's basically saying that Rodgers is no where near as good as he used to be, but even if he's not, it would be almost unimaginable that he's not significantly better than the three stooges we trotted out there last year

Exactly.  Soooooo why does that make Garrett Wilson a bust/reach?  lol.

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Exactly.  Soooooo why does that make Garrett Wilson a bust/reach?  lol.

I think non-Jets fans are generally unaware how bad our QB play has been game in and game out since Ryan Fitzpatrick (or maybe McCown briefly in 2017?)

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It’s also for folks with friends, my guy.  Which explains why @T0mShane hates it.

The trash talk is more than half the fun.  

thats not really true. you can play fantasy football and have zero friends. sleeper has plenty of public leagues you can join up in

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I drafted him in 2 of my 3 leagues with high second round picks last year and paid for it. Article is just saying he’s being drafted too early. Given that Rodgers is old and coming off a bad injury, the back up qb is also always injured, there are probably safer players to take with a high pick. It can also be argued that we may have the worst OC in the league when he doesn’t have Rodgers. Wilson is a stud in the NFL sense but if Rodgers goes down again or just is completly washed up, he’s at best a low end #2 WR on a fantasy team. There are some other WRers and RBs that may not be as talented but are in far safer situations. This really isn’t a jab at him but more so the situation and how dependent he’ll be on Rodgers staying healthy and playing well. 

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4 hours ago, Dcat said:

Having a hard time understanding the motive.  

Let me repeat the cogent point then for you:

G. Wilson is a great talent, and should do just fine playing real (not fantasy) football in 2024.

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18 hours ago, Warfish said:

Fantasy Football is for folks who like drafting their most hated rivals starting QB and then rooting for them to produce.

So yeah, I don't care about fantasy football. 

G. Wilson is a great talent, and should do just fine playing real (not fantasy) football in 2024.

actually fantasy football gives you something else to root for during the season. your own drafted team winning. it might even be better for fans of teams like the jets who most often leave you with having almost nothing to root for by thanksgiving except the season to end

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13 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

actually fantasy football gives you something else to root for during the season. your own drafted team winning. it might even be better for fans of teams like the jets who most often leave you with having almost nothing to root for by thanksgiving except the season to end

If you find joy in drafting Tua and Allen and rooting them on to high production days for your fantasy team, great. I cannot. Never could. Which makes fantasy football for me an exercise in “draft all the Jets” then lose in the fantasy league lol.

For me there is simply a cognitive dissonance between being a hard core Jets fan and rooting for Tua or Allen (examples, could be any rival players) to do well. I’d rather root against these guys than win at fantasy football.

 JMO.

The larger point in this thread for me is this: G. Wilson is a great talent, and should have a great year for us playing real actual non-fantasy football. A thread sh*tting on him because he won’t be great in fantasy football is stupid IMO. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

If you find joy in drafting Tua and Allen and rooting them on to high production days for your fantasy team, great. I cannot. Never could. Which makes fantasy football for me an exercise in “draft all the Jets” then lose in the fantasy league lol.

For me there is simply a cognitive dissonance between being a hard core Jets fan and rooting for Tua or Allen (examples, could be any rival players) to do well. I’d rather root against these guys than win at fantasy football.

 JMO.

The larger point in this thread for me is this: G. Wilson is a great talent, and should have a great year for us playing real actual non-fantasy football. A thread sh*tting on him because he won’t be great in fantasy football is stupid IMO. 

I find a lot of your posts difficult to digest, but I actually agree with you here. I play in a fantasy league with some old friends (it’s a nice way to stay in touch, among other things), but end up drafting too many Jets every year and avoid players from the Jets AFCE rivals. Even doing that, I often end up rooting against my fantasy team when another AFC team seems to be a threat to the Jets interests (granted, over the last 8 years or so, that hasn’t been a problem by Thanksgiving). So, usually BOTH my fantasy team and real team suck. But some day having all those Jets is going to pay off … right?

 

As for Wilson being just fine in real football, he’s a very nice player, but I agree with the poster who said he has a few more steps to take before he’s solidified as one of the handful of elite NFL wide receivers.

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16 minutes ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

I find a lot of your posts difficult to digest

I 100% understand.  I get I'm not the most popular guy at JN for some very good, very solid reasons tbqh.

16 minutes ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

I play in a fantasy league with some old friends (it’s a nice way to stay in touch, among other things), but end up drafting too many Jets every year and avoid players from the Jets AFCE rivals. Even doing that, I often end up rooting against my fantasy team when another AFC team seems to be a threat to the Jets interests (granted, over the last 8 years or so, that hasn’t been a problem by Thanksgiving). So, usually BOTH my fantasy team and real team suck. But some day having all those Jets is going to pay off … right?

Agree on the "keeping up with old/live somewhere else friends", absolutely.  That's why I've tried to suck it up and play despite my....inability, I'll say, to separate Jets Fandom from Fantasy, to keep in touch or have an activity, in my case with my younger brother.  But I definitely have the "draft too many Jets, avoid AFC East rivals" thing hardcore.

16 minutes ago, Gaffneycatch81 said:

As for Wilson being just fine in real football, he’s a very nice player, but I agree with the poster who said he has a few more steps to take before he’s solidified as one of the handful of elite NFL wide receivers.

To be elite?  Yes, I'd agree.  But with that said, it was hard to take steps towards elite when operating with the worst QB's in the NFL and one of the least productive passing offenses in the NFL the past couple of years.

If there is anything having Rodgers does to excite me, it's seeing our young studs Hall and Wilson (and maybe now Corely) operating with a competent NFL QB for a season, hopefully in a competently called offense.  I have confidence Wilson will take that step even it's it's really more about the QB throwing to him than he himself IMO.

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5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

 

If there is anything having Rodgers does to excite me, it's seeing our young studs Hall and Wilson (and maybe now Corely) operating with a competent NFL QB for a season, hopefully in a competently called offense.

Agree … if Rodgers stays healthy, that is going to be a really interesting thing to watch this season

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