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Which Offensive Personnel Groupings Do You Expect to See the Most This Season?


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16 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Different era. All the top offensive teams all use motion. 49ers, KC, Detroit, Eagles. Ravens don’t use too much motion but… well, Lamar

No, not a different era.  Favre didn’t like motion, that has nothing to do with the era they played in.  And actually, Fave eliminated the motion from Shottys offense while Rodgers was playing in GB.  

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4 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

You didn’t say that… you said you expect us to lose most of the early games.. if not all.


You’re forgetting about our defense. We don’t need to put up 24 points to win week 2 & 3. Just decent Qb play, run the ball and NO TURNOVERS 

SF probably.

Dude, you conveniently cut off  the rest of the post which is connected.  I said that unless certain things happened I think the Jets will lose all 3 games.  That's a BIG difference.  RIF, my friend, RIF!!!

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4 hours ago, JKlecko said:

Dude, you conveniently cut off  the rest of the post which is connected.  I said that unless certain things happened I think the Jets will lose all 3 games.  That's a BIG difference.  RIF, my friend, RIF!!!

Dude… to early in the morning for all this. I don’t know what RIF is and I don’t care. I disagree with you… there doesn’t need to be a winner.

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7 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

No, not a different era.  Favre didn’t like motion, that has nothing to do with the era they played in.  And actually, Fave eliminated the motion from Shottys offense while Rodgerswas playing in GB.  

Good to know. Thanks 

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14 hours ago, JKlecko said:

That's what our record should be, but that doesn't mean that's what it will be if our offense struggles early.

Most teams struggle early. Every team deals with the same practice rules. The first month of the season is usually pretty sloppy all around. The good news is that defenses are often ahead early, and that only helps a team like the Jets who are established on defense. 
 
Everyone is whining and crying about this three games in 10 days thing, but if you’re gonna have a stretch like that in your schedule, might as well have it to open the year. No one seems to notice that that means they get 9 straight days without a game as soon as that stretch is done, either. 

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I’m thinking they’ll be using 12 more to take advantage of the blocking and the pass catching of Conklin.  I suppose if Lazard returns to his 2022 form they may use more 11 alignments.  And no matter what they use the oline has got to execute much better than they have over the past three seasons.

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I don't have a preference, I simply want whatever arrangement is the most effective.

I'd say seeing the maximum amount possible of Rodgers+Wilson+Hall all on field at the same time is about as far as I'll go in player-personnel preferences.  The rest should, and hopefully will, be about what shows itself to be most effective and most consistently effective.

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On 5/27/2024 at 10:45 AM, 32EBoozer said:

Reminder:

10 Personnel= 1 RB; 0 TE; 4 WR

11 Personnel= 1 RB; 1 TE; 3 WR

12 Personnel= 1 RB; 2TE; 2 WR

21 Personnel= 2 RB; 1 TE; 2 WR

With the additions of Allen & Davis, I could see an HB/FB being run on short yardage plays. 
If Jets are looking to establish a power running game similar to Ravens/Titans then the 12 personnel may be a more popular option on early downs. 
 

So anxious for this season to get underway, I can’t help imagining what the plan is with the new additions we obtained this offseason.

I think the main curiosity lies in seeing whether the Jets use 21. I know there is theories that Ruckert or Davis might do fullback stuff, but I'm not so sure the Jets will do that other than on some rare trick plays / TE motions inside (which aren't technically 21 formations). I think they'd keep a legit FB around if they really wanted to do that, although in a power-run scheme you'd think they might. As others have said, I think the power scheme will mainly result in using 12 a LOT. Especially early on / early in games. Rodgers is very comfortable throwing to his isolated WRs on the outside. 

I expect around 40-50% 12 personnel. I expect around 35-45% 11 personnel - not a ton, because we don't necessarily need to use it in games that are close or where we're winning. There might be an uptick in tighter games or when playing from behind. Lazard is a good blocker and might get more use than expected in these sets when we plan to run a lot.

The remaining 5-25% would likely be a mix of other stuff - mainly 10 and empty sets, which Rodgers does like to use. Empties may really be "10" with Breece motioning out wide or lining up there. And maybe a little 21 if I'm wrong about the above, or other funky stuff like Corley and Breece in the wildcat :)

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6 hours ago, slats said:

Most teams struggle early. Every team deals with the same practice rules. The first month of the season is usually pretty sloppy all around. The good news is that defenses are often ahead early, and that only helps a team like the Jets who are established on defense. 
 
Everyone is whining and crying about this three games in 10 days thing, but if you’re gonna have a stretch like that in your schedule, might as well have it to open the year. No one seems to notice that that means they get 9 straight days without a game as soon as that stretch is done, either. 

What I like most about the schedule is the set of opposing QBs in the first 5 games.  Yes... indeed...   the NY Jets defense vs: Purdy, Levis, Brissett/Maye, Zach/Nix, Sam/McCarthy.  what could be better than that?  Purdy has the experience and has the weapons to battle the Jets defense.  The other 4 QBs are rookies or have sucked. Against this defense?  I'll say this: The Jets should be no worse than 4-1 after facing the above.  I wish everyone would stop crying about the schedule, which I think favors the Jets in many ways.

 

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35 minutes ago, Dcat said:

What I like most about the schedule is the set of opposing QBs in the first 5 games.  Yes... indeed...   the NY Jets defense vs: Purdy, Levis, Brissett/Maye, Zach/Nix, Sam/McCarthy.  what could be better than that?  Purdy has the experience and has the weapons to battle the Jets defense.  The other 4 QBs are rookies or have sucked. Against this defense?  I'll say this: The Jets should be no worse than 4-1 after facing the above.  I wish everyone would stop crying about the schedule, which I think favors the Jets in many ways.

 

Honestly, besides starting the year with 3 games in 10 days (and for a 40yr old coming off a season ending injury), the schedule really isn't so bad for the PLAYERS. Shoving London in week 5 is also a bit tough but the late bye and subsequent schedule help.

It's us fans I feel bad for haha, for the average working class fan it's going to be very difficult to fit many good-weather home games in. Feels especially harsh when the team is finally supposed to be "relevant" again.

Also -  it's football, I feel like a little random variability will kick in. 4-1 is a big ask but I think 3-2 is a realistic, feel-good target. This team feels like it should grow better over time, if anything.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Rogers said:

As others have said, I think the power scheme will mainly result in using 12 a LOT. Especially early on / early in games. Rodgers is very comfortable throwing to his isolated WRs on the outside. 

I expect around 40-50% 12 personnel. I expect around 35-45% 11 personnel - not a ton, because we don't necessarily need to use it in games that are close or where we're winning. There might be an uptick in tighter games or when playing from behind.

You’re contradicting yourself here a bit. First you say that the Jets will use a lot of 12 early, then you say you expect it to end games when they’re ahead. Either way, I disagree, I expect 11 personnel close to 66% of the time. Rodgers likes his slot guy, too. A lot. 
 
Now if the slot receiver is the 5’9”, 185lb Gipson, then I understand pulling him for Ruckert in the running game. However, if it’s the 5’11”, 215lb Corley, I have less of a concern. Even less so if you think the 6’5”, 230lb Lazard will be the primary slot (I don’t). The difference is in the passing game, and keeping the defense on their toes. Going to 12 personnel, you’re telegraphing run. With Corley or Lazard in there, the pass is more dangerous and both are willing blockers allowing for more play calls. Until Ruckert proves himself as a passing option, he’ll be seen as another OL out there. 
 
Unless the team is deliberately running the ball -whether it’s the weather or the game situation- I would expect the team to have five strong options in the passing game on the field as often as possible. I expect those to be Wilson, Williams, Corley, Conklin, and Hall - and I say this really hoping that Ruckert steps into the starting job by 2025. 

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On 5/27/2024 at 7:45 AM, 32EBoozer said:

Reminder:

10 Personnel= 1 RB; 0 TE; 4 WR

11 Personnel= 1 RB; 1 TE; 3 WR

12 Personnel= 1 RB; 2TE; 2 WR

21 Personnel= 2 RB; 1 TE; 2 WR

With the additions of Allen & Davis, I could see an HB/FB being run on short yardage plays. 
If Jets are looking to establish a power running game similar to Ravens/Titans then the 12 personnel may be a more popular option on early downs. 
 

So anxious for this season to get underway, I can’t help imagining what the plan is with the new additions we obtained this offseason.

Rodgers really likes 12 personnel as it is much harder to disguise coverages but we definitely seem to have more of an 11 personnel roster now especially if Corley develops quickly. That said Saleh's extra involvement strongly suggests we will run a lot more so unlike teams that are in 11 like 3/4 of the time or more we will probably be in 11 and 12 about equal amount with maybe 15-20% being some combination of 10, 21 and 13

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56 minutes ago, slats said:

You’re contradicting yourself here a bit. First you say that the Jets will use a lot of 12 early, then you say you expect it to end games when they’re ahead. Either way, I disagree, I expect 11 personnel close to 66% of the time. Rodgers likes his slot guy, too. A lot. 
 
Now if the slot receiver is the 5’9”, 185lb Gipson, then I understand pulling him for Ruckert in the running game. However, if it’s the 5’11”, 215lb Corley, I have less of a concern. Even less so if you think the 6’5”, 230lb Lazard will be the primary slot (I don’t). The difference is in the passing game, and keeping the defense on their toes. Going to 12 personnel, you’re telegraphing run. With Corley or Lazard in there, the pass is more dangerous and both are willing blockers allowing for more play calls. Until Ruckert proves himself as a passing option, he’ll be seen as another OL out there. 
 
Unless the team is deliberately running the ball -whether it’s the weather or the game situation- I would expect the team to have five strong options in the passing game on the field as often as possible. I expect those to be Wilson, Williams, Corley, Conklin, and Hall - and I say this really hoping that Ruckert steps into the starting job by 2025. 

Am I contradicting myself? I didn't feel like it...

Sorry, by saying early, I meant both early I the season and early in games. I did also say I expect more 11 in close games or when playing from behind, so yes, I do also expect sustained 12 usage in games we're winning. Yes, using Ruckert a lot takes a more significant receiving threat off the field, but as I also said, Rodgers is very comfortable mainly using his outside WR on out routes / etc. I think we are looking at a more run heavy offense than a Rodgers offense would typically have been in the past, which is why I say this even though you're right Rodgers has loved his slot guys. Also - Breece is such a good receiving threat! And Ruckert has been reasonably reliable. I don't think it's a severe drop off to have him on the field over Lazard or Corley, neither of whom I have 100% confidence in at the moment. 

If you're right, I think it will be because we see a lot of Lazard out there acting as a wide blocker. We did use it at 66% last year, so I see where you'd think that, but this team was also playing from behind or in tight games quite a lot... and that'd put pretty above average for 11 usage. 

Consider that in 2021 and 2020, GB used 11 personnel 61% and 55% of the time. If the jets are really committed to the power run scheme and holding leads often this year, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to be even lower. I'd be willing to accept that we'll use it more than the 35%-45% I said before, though. 

Edit: also, I could see the Jets using 11 personnel a lot in situations that are "extensions" of the run game - Corley sweeps, Breece screens, etc. So I'll give you that one.

Double edit: also, consider Rodgers can flex Breece out wide from 12 personnel to make an empty set with Conklin or Ruckert as an extra blocker. Obviously won't be a major part of the weekly game plan but I bet we see that somewhat often. 

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

Consider that in 2021 and 2020, GB used 11 personnel 61% and 55% of the time. If the jets are really committed to the power run scheme and holding leads often this year, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect it to be even lower.

Those were 13-3/4 seasons in which they got 1600 yards rushing from their two lead backs. I don’t know how much more committed to the run the Jets can be than those two teams. I said 66%. If it’s 60%? Okay. Definitely the majority of the time, which I think we agree. 

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30 minutes ago, slats said:

Those were 13-3/4 seasons in which they got 1600 yards rushing from their two lead backs. I don’t know how much more committed to the run the Jets can be than those two teams. I said 66%. If it’s 60%? Okay. Definitely the majority of the time, which I think we agree. 

That team still only ran it about 42.7% of the time, which was about league average. Call me crazy, but I think it's wholly possible the Jets run it more than that (at least marginally) and also get even better production. Of course, if the OL has the usual health issues, that becomes less likely. And Rodgers does love his short passing game, but it's not as if 12 can't be used for dump offs to Breece, Conklin and Ruckert.

I maintain that I think we could be seeing 12 just as often as 11, but yeah, I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if 11 is preferred. Although I think Lazard will just be a wide tight end lol, as opposed to the Cobb/Nelson types.

We'll see if Corley really factors in that much. Rodgers may have talked him up, but I'm skeptical.

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12 Personnel= 1 RB; 2TE; 2 WR

21 Personnel= 2 RB; 1 TE; 2 WR

I expect these two formations will dominate the 4th Qtr while protecting a big lead. Keep it on the ground, burn the clock.

Establishing the lead or playing from behind, we'll see more 3 & 4 WR sets, I guess.

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29 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

How about whatever doesn't include Alan lazard?

 

 

I’d love for Lazard to have a bounce back year, but I won’t be surprised if he’s just buried on the depth chart behind a UDFA or two. Sounds like Rodgers was trying to get him involved here to no avail. 

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